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poor waif
Apr 8, 2007
Kaboom

fatherboxx posted:

Russia lost about 1 million people to COVID and large parts of population are still convinced that the disease was not real
At most there are 100-150k dead+wounded at this moment, so it is not enough to make a dent in public opinion or in demographics yet

You are right that large parts of country dont consider prisoners people, so the darwinistic rhetoric of Prigozhin of "better them than YOUR sons and brothers" hits something (as does the recruitment from economically depressed regions, especially with ethnic minority population). But the stream of convict suicide squads is dwindling, thanks to prison networks telling about sad state of things in storm troops, so the mobilized divisions need to be used more and more.

The demographics would make a huge difference here though. If an 80 year old pensioner in rural Russia dies of covid, it's sad, but understandable.

If a 30 year old factory worker with a wife and two kids dies because of a war of choice, the entire dynamic of that family changes. Even if he comes back home after losing a leg or something, he might not be able to work. Even if he comes back without being a casualty, he might have PTSD or similar. It would be a huge shock to that family, and it would take a long time to recover.

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Telsa Cola
Aug 19, 2011

No... this is all wrong... this whole operation has just gone completely sidewaysface

Storkrasch posted:

The demographics would make a huge difference here though. If an 80 year old pensioner in rural Russia dies of covid, it's sad, but understandable.

If a 30 year old factory worker with a wife and two kids dies because of a war of choice, the entire dynamic of that family changes. Even if he comes back home after losing a leg or something, he might not be able to work. Even if he comes back without being a casualty, he might have PTSD or similar. It would be a huge shock to that family, and it would take a long time to recover.

Somewhat related I have zero idea of how the demographics and agricultural poo poo in Russia works but if they keep pulling from non-urban centers, there's probably going to issues down the line

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Staluigi posted:

Where they at for total number of people who fled the country? Bet they hit a million plus and I think that's going to hit hard especially when a lot of them are a braindrain deal. Most people gotta know a friend or associate who skipped town

It is hard to exactly determine because border crossings don't really tell reliable data since they don't differentiate between tourists/work trips and people fleeing
Alexey Raksha is the one dude in Russia that I tend to refer to regarding demographic issues and he usually says the estimates for people that left Russia are 150k in the first wave after february 2022 and 350-700k after mobilization (that range should tell you how wildly broad those estimates are) - with the addendum that it is not certain how many returned.
I don't think that it is many people for Russian leadership because they would be pretty comfortable with around 50 million left to maintain the resource extraction and security for this generation.

Storkrasch posted:

If a 30 year old factory worker with a wife and two kids dies because of a war of choice, the entire dynamic of that family changes. Even if he comes back home after losing a leg or something, he might not be able to work. Even if he comes back without being a casualty, he might have PTSD or similar. It would be a huge shock to that family, and it would take a long time to recover.

There are lots of anecdotal stories already of industry and infrastructure maintenance accidents in regions caused by shortage of hands, but is uncertain how numerous they are.

fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 18:10 on Feb 25, 2023

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

fatherboxx posted:

Russia lost about 1 million people to COVID and large parts of population are still convinced that the disease was not real
At most there are 100-150k dead+wounded at this moment, so it is not enough to make a dent in public opinion or in demographics yet

I am going to go out on a very sturdy limb and say that losing a million people to COVID is not felt as acutely as 100-150K wounded/dead in conflict.

The US also lost 1 million plus people to COVID and large parts of the population are still convinced it's just the common cold, but the US would also lose its mind if suffered 100-150K casualties in war. It's not that the losses are no big deal, it's that Ukraine is also suffering very high casualties and is a much smaller country. That means that Russia being large and having a lot of manpower is still a serious advantage.

PederP
Nov 20, 2009

Telsa Cola posted:

Somewhat related I have zero idea of how the demographics and agricultural poo poo in Russia works but if they keep pulling from non-urban centers, there's probably going to issues down the line

Agriculture generally isn't very labor intensive these days. It's also a sector where importing unskilled labor works pretty well when there are no annoying labor protection laws or similar in the way. Loss of skilled labor is a far bigger problem - the local mechanic, the dentist, the water treatment plant engineer, etc. In rural Russia I don't expect skilled labor to be a big part of the economy - so while adult males dying and/or being maimed in war is certainly an economic problem, it is far less crippling to a rural area, where agriculture and resource extraction/processing is the core of the economy than an industrial hub with not so easily replaceable labor - and it's far more crippling when highly skilled labor exit the country, especially if spouses leave alongside them.

The suffering and tragedy of losing family members and friends to war is every bit as real in the countryside as it is in the more densely populated areas, so the psychosocial trauma will take a toll, but I would not expect the rural economy to be affected significantly and in the long term (ie recovery will also be relatively swift).

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

mlmp08 posted:

The US also lost 1 million plus people to COVID and large parts of the population are still convinced it's just the common cold, but the US would also lose its mind if suffered 100-150K casualties in war. It's not that the losses are no big deal, it's that Ukraine is also suffering very high casualties and is a much smaller country. That means that Russia being large and having a lot of manpower is still a serious advantage.

I think the media control makes enormous difference because in the US there would always be a force to capitalize on current administration losing people and that force would have enormous media resources to amplify the message.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Staluigi posted:

Where they at for total number of people who fled the country? Bet they hit a million plus and I think that's going to hit hard especially when a lot of them are a braindrain deal. Most people gotta know a friend or associate who skipped town

Where are you coming from to this estimate (or guesstimate)? It seems hard to assess the real figure because some of the people who left have already returned. Some also left early, then returned, then left again when the mobilisation began. Leaving Russia is relatively easy, but staying abroad is more difficult unless you are made of money or immediately find work.

Anyway one million sounds like far too many, IMHO. That would be one in every 143 Russians. Or roughly one in 20 of the 18-44 year old men. That would be huge, and something that would have been reported more widely.

Rappaport
Oct 2, 2013

Nenonen posted:

Where are you coming from to this estimate (or guesstimate)? It seems hard to assess the real figure because some of the people who left have already returned. Some also left early, then returned, then left again when the mobilisation began. Leaving Russia is relatively easy, but staying abroad is more difficult unless you are made of money or immediately find work.

Anyway one million sounds like far too many, IMHO. That would be one in every 143 Russians. Or roughly one in 20 of the 18-44 year old men. That would be huge, and something that would have been reported more widely.

It's not nearly in the wowza million people category, but apparently roughly a thousand (Finnish YLE link, sorry folks!) Russians get a student visa to Finland annually.



Sadly I'm not sure how strict comparatively Finnish visa policies in this area are, but I'm assuming Russian young people would attempt similar moves to other nearby countries. Russian isn't that widely spoken in Finland, so the people coming here would be rather motivated. The Russian dude interviewed in that article states that he thinks "interest in studies abroad among Russian people have increased", and that "very few people want to return to Russia". Of course that's anecdotal.

Tomn
Aug 23, 2007

And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

Karate Bastard posted:

I've understood Russia has sustained monstrous casualty rates for comparatively minor gain, and rather than taking steps to mitigate, they rather seem to double down on the same failing tactics for the long haul, ostensively to "wear the Ukrainian military down". I'm doubtful as to whether that will work, but what do I know.

Regardless, I find it hard to see how a country could find long term domestic support for continuouly pouring its own into the forever war, unless it's actually only domestic undesirables who are sent off and everyone else thinks their not being around anymore is actually super great.

So, I guess my question is, is this actually a giant cleansing operation of domestic undesirables and people are actively cheering it on, or are these losses in fact no big deal for the russian everyman yet, or is it in fact having a huge impact on russian lives and families and they're presently creating a giant pressure cooker?

I guess my issue is that I find it hard to make sense of all the angles and reporting.

My understanding is that part of it is that politically speaking, only the people of Moscow and St. Petersburg matters and they’ve been relatively insulated from the war - there was an infographic in the last incarnation of this thread noting how combat losses have disproportionately affected people outside those regions. I recall losses were particularly heavily centered on ethnic subgroups, eg Siberians. I don’t think this was a deliberate “undesirables” policy as such, more that the army tends to be a more attractive option for dirt poor folks out East than it is for a comfortable Muscovite.

As for why only Moscow and St. Petersburg matters, the Russian experts here can probably better answer that but I suspect it’s because they’re the only large cities where rioting might potentially paralyze or overthrow central government.

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

Moscow has 13m people, St Petersburg 5m. The next largest city in Russia is 1.5m. They are the administrative and cultural centres of Russia.

e: or to put it another way, Russia is an empire based around extracting resources from the regions and transferring the wealth to those two cities where all the investment and infrastructure is. The country is built around that model and so a lot of political power rests with the group that administers those cities.

Alchenar fucked around with this message at 19:08 on Feb 25, 2023

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!
Against his better judgment, cinci zoo sniper has renewed his contract for another deployment in the trenches.

Delthalaz
Mar 5, 2003






Slippery Tilde
Idk how much the demographics describes here really matter that much for the war, considering the size of Russia. At 140m+, Russia has about the population of Nazi Germany + Japan in WW2. Yeah much older and less likely to have kids (and an entirely different type of war) but there are a whole lot of people in Russia

Fragrag
Aug 3, 2007
The Worst Admin Ever bashes You in the head with his banhammer. It is smashed into the body, an unrecognizable mass! You have been struck down.

Fritz the Horse posted:

Against his better judgment, cinci zoo sniper has renewed his contract for another deployment in the trenches.

cinci, blink twice if you're doing this against your will

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Fritz the Horse posted:

Against his better judgment, cinci zoo sniper has renewed his contract for another deployment in the trenches.

Shaking my smh, I'm trying to workshop a bad no-fly zone joke here, and you just drop spoilers like that.

That said, I have no further announcements to make right now. While you'll see me again in the role you've all used to see me, Fatherboxx remains a cherished thread IK for as long as they'll fancy. I've been perfectly happy with their reign, and I'm back mainly because I've had enough time to rest and think over this past year, the point of me moderating this thread, and so on. Additionally, I've had a bit of a

moment here with spending month on doing random changes like quitting smoking after 15 years etc, and part of that was fixing my 24/7 sleep schedule. Which is to say that you'll likely be seeing more of Fritz, Rigel, or a more gullible American if we can find one to keep an eye out for this thread when me and Fatherboxx are sleeping.

Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011

Tomn posted:

My understanding is that part of it is that politically speaking, only the people of Moscow and St. Petersburg matters and they’ve been relatively insulated from the war - there was an infographic in the last incarnation of this thread noting how combat losses have disproportionately affected people outside those regions. I recall losses were particularly heavily centered on ethnic subgroups, eg Siberians. I don’t think this was a deliberate “undesirables” policy as such, more that the army tends to be a more attractive option for dirt poor folks out East than it is for a comfortable Muscovite.

As for why only Moscow and St. Petersburg matters, the Russian experts here can probably better answer that but I suspect it’s because they’re the only large cities where rioting might potentially paralyze or overthrow central government.

There's also the fact that in the military the ground forces basically rank dead last in terms of prestige and recrutiment standards. At the top you basically have the strategic missile forces and the airforce, then you get in the navy, various elite units like the VDV or marine infantry, air defence, military intelligence in some kind of order, and then dead last, the ground forces. This is not necessarily unique on a worldwide basis, though in addition to these generally attracting recruits from regions with higher education levels, which in the Soviet Union were the western Slavic parts and the Baltic, Russia has probably also inherited the practice of the Soviet Union in considering the political reliability of certain ethnic groups.

In addition to the non-European regions being much less developed socially and economically, the (non-Russian, non-European) inhabitants were also considered way more politically suspect, so what you ended up with was a situation where the air force and strategic missile forces almost only accepted the most reliable and patriotic Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians (people from the Baltic had a high presence in the navy for a non-Slavic example), and then the ground forces almost had a majority of non-Russians making up the bulk of its manpower, to the point where the fact that conscripts in the Soviet ground forces not speaking Russian very well was something that had to be considered in training.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

cinci zoo sniper posted:

...............
quitting smoking after 15 years etc, and part of that was fixing my 24/7 sleep schedule. Which is to say that you'll likely be seeing more of Fritz, Rigel, or a more gullible American if we can find one to keep an eye out for this thread when me and Fatherboxx are sleeping.

Best wishes on the not smoking front and as a former 12hr shift worker make sure you go to bed at the same time every night (my sleep schedule still goes bonkers three years after quitting the job). :ughh:

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

mlmp08 posted:

I am going to go out on a very sturdy limb and say that losing a million people to COVID is not felt as acutely as 100-150K wounded/dead in conflict.

The US also lost 1 million plus people to COVID and large parts of the population are still convinced it's just the common cold, but the US would also lose its mind if suffered 100-150K casualties in war. It's not that the losses are no big deal, it's that Ukraine is also suffering very high casualties and is a much smaller country. That means that Russia being large and having a lot of manpower is still a serious advantage.

America and Ukraine are also democracies, and Russia isn't. There's no "popular pressure" that will eventually force Putin's hand; it doesn't work like that. Our persistent habit of viewing Russian politics through a democratic lens is as much an error as Putin's habit of assuming Biden can just order Britain to do things.

RDM
Apr 6, 2009

I LOVE FINLAND AND ESPECIALLY FINLAND'S MILITARY ALLIANCES, GOOGLE FINLAND WORLD WAR 2 FOR MORE INFORMATION SLAVA UKRANI

mlmp08 posted:

I am going to go out on a very sturdy limb and say that losing a million people to COVID is not felt as acutely as 100-150K wounded/dead in conflict.

The US also lost 1 million plus people to COVID and large parts of the population are still convinced it's just the common cold, but the US would also lose its mind if suffered 100-150K casualties in war. It's not that the losses are no big deal, it's that Ukraine is also suffering very high casualties and is a much smaller country. That means that Russia being large and having a lot of manpower is still a serious advantage.
Russia has the dictatorship problem of having to split your manpower into a "fight the war" group and "keep me from getting couped" group (and invest more resources into the praetorian guard than the actual army).

I don't know that it's possible for them to effectively use that manpower advantage.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

America and Ukraine are also democracies, and Russia isn't. There's no "popular pressure" that will eventually force Putin's hand; it doesn't work like that. Our persistent habit of viewing Russian politics through a democratic lens is as much an error as Putin's habit of assuming Biden can just order Britain to do things.

If popular opinion is no factor in Russia, He should simply activate a full war economy, luxuries and qol be damned, and begin enough drafts to man and rquip this full war economy. (Popular opinion is a factor)

Nothingtoseehere
Nov 11, 2010


The reasons Russia can't effectively use their manpower advantage are - no training infrastructure left (all the trainers got sent to the front line) - no Officer/NCO core (men arn't useful unless ordered) - no equipment (a rifle and a bullet doesn't get you far anymore).

The physical number of people is waaaay down the list. Russia can always shake the mobilization tree for +manpower -economy anyways.

See how Ukraine - a country a third the population - has no manpower issues while taking similar magnitude casualties. Because they are in total war mobilization mode.

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

Tomn posted:

My understanding is that part of it is that politically speaking, only the people of Moscow and St. Petersburg matters and they’ve been relatively insulated from the war - there was an infographic in the last incarnation of this thread noting how combat losses have disproportionately affected people outside those regions. I recall losses were particularly heavily centered on ethnic subgroups, eg Siberians. I don’t think this was a deliberate “undesirables” policy as such, more that the army tends to be a more attractive option for dirt poor folks out East than it is for a comfortable Muscovite.

As for why only Moscow and St. Petersburg matters, the Russian experts here can probably better answer that but I suspect it’s because they’re the only large cities where rioting might potentially paralyze or overthrow central government.

the major cities also have a higher concentration of people attentive to national-level issues who consume non-state media. the regions aren't necessarily all in on supporting the federal government, but protests there are more likely to be focused on local or regional issues, like the recent Khabarovsk protests surrounding the removal of governor Sergei Furgal. there were notable protests in regional cities following Putin's last election organized by Navalny's organization, but they were notable from the standpoint of like "wow, a hundred or so people actually turned out in like, Tyumen or wherever!". Bolotnaya-scale protests generally aren't a thing outside the major cities, and even larger ones would have a "this is not about 'politics'" (explicit opposition to the regime) angle--the anti-Platon toll protests attracted support from across the country, but notably distanced themselves from the liberal opposition, even when PARNAS/Yabloko/etc. tried to join with them in solidarity

the army (lovely as it is) is indeed a decent economic opportunity if you're a kid in rural Buryatia or wherever, though that was a lot more true in peacetime. i can't recall seeing much about whether volunteer enlistment is way down, but do recall at least anecdotal reporting of contract soldiers declining to re-enlist after the start of the war

Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010

Tomn posted:

there was an infographic in the last incarnation of this thread noting how combat losses have disproportionately affected people outside those regions.

Pretty sure you're referring to this one, and it's being frequently updated:
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

Deltasquid
Apr 10, 2013

awww...
you guys made me ink!


THUNDERDOME

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Shaking my smh, I'm trying to workshop a bad no-fly zone joke here, and you just drop spoilers like that.

Thank you for safeguarding the legitimate security concerns of this thread

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

mlmp08 posted:

If popular opinion is no factor in Russia, He should simply activate a full war economy, luxuries and qol be damned, and begin enough drafts to man and rquip this full war economy. (Popular opinion is a factor)

I think the actual answer here is that it is far less of a factor than Putin fears, because Putin came to power when Russia was far more democratic, and he's not actually that perceptive regarding change. He's a very powerful autocratic who fears and acts like a weak autocrat.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

RDM posted:

Russia has the dictatorship problem of having to split your manpower into a "fight the war" group and "keep me from getting couped" group (and invest more resources into the praetorian guard than the actual army).

I don't know that it's possible for them to effectively use that manpower advantage.

Russia probably has enough peeps for both the front and to arrest grandmothers who dare to publicly show sympathy for Ukraine. Providing equipment and training for the former category is more of a limiting factor. Everyone likes to talk about expensive equipment like tanks, planes or artillery, but in the end the little things count just as much - infantrymen need hundreds of little things to be effective and also training to use them well. Troops that lack those won't last long especially in winter conditions, and then you need a new fighter with new set of equipment and training period.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

America and Ukraine are also democracies, and Russia isn't. There's no "popular pressure" that will eventually force Putin's hand; it doesn't work like that. Our persistent habit of viewing Russian politics through a democratic lens is as much an error as Putin's habit of assuming Biden can just order Britain to do things.

Russia is not yet a fully totalitarian state, although the authoritarian social consensus of 'we don't bother you with ideology, and you also don't bother yourself with politics' of yesteryear has almost crumbled.

What's also worth noting is that Putin's ideology is that Russia is the real democracy, and he's the real classical liberal politician, unlike all those fakers in the West. Russia is not just trying to be the third Rome, the upholder of ancient tradition, but also the second Europe, the saviour of real liberal values (which are understood even by some people outside of Russia mainly as freedom to be bigoted under the guise of white man's burden). The balance between the two vectors is shaky, and lately there's been much more Rome than Europe in official narratives, but both are still there. Russia doesn't need to be part of any international human rights agreements not because the concept of human rights is inherently antithetical to Russian traditions, but because it was corrupted in the West and only Russia possesses true knowledge of what those rights should really be.

There's a reason why Putin conducted several meetings with right wing pro-war bloggers and influencers who weren't happy with MoD. That's where Putin thinks his next political challenge might come from, not from Russian liberals but from the right, and why appeals to tradition are getting more play time. How long it will take to completely transition from the pseudo-liberal authoritarianism to a pseudo-theocratic totalitarianism, and if it's even possible at all now, is an open question. My money is on it being impossible.

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

Hannibal Rex posted:

Pretty sure you're referring to this one, and it's being frequently updated:
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

that really needs some per capita scale though; those numbers aren't immediately comparable

Moscow Oblast: 280/8,524,665

Buryatia: 452/978,588

Sverdlovsk Oblast (listed as just Yekaterinburg--im guessing they combined them): 568/4,268,998

Chelyabinsk Oblast: 477/1,130,132

4 people out of a thousand is way different than 3 people in ten thousand (if i did the math right--it's an order of magnitude either way)

WarpedLichen
Aug 14, 2008


Paladinus posted:

What's also worth noting is that Putin's ideology is that Russia is the real democracy, and he's the real classical liberal politician, unlike all those fakers in the West. Russia is not just trying to be the third Rome, the upholder of ancient tradition, but also the second Europe, the saviour of real liberal values (which are understood even by some people outside of Russia mainly as freedom to be bigoted under the guise of white man's burden).

This is probably a bit too abstract for this thread, but wha? Promoting your personal world view as the broader majority's world view isn't new, but has Putin ever claimed to be a liberal democracy? I thought he was more in the China camp where the so called liberal democracy represents a Western system that "doesn't work." It's probably kind of splitting hairs, but I would be interested if there are any sources where he claimed to be those things.

bad_fmr
Nov 28, 2007

Fritz the Horse posted:

Against his better judgment, cinci zoo sniper has renewed his contract for another deployment in the trenches.



So Cinci had his one week of leave. Back to the trenches it is.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

hey! check this out
Fun Shoe

WarpedLichen posted:

This is probably a bit too abstract for this thread, but wha? Promoting your personal world view as the broader majority's world view isn't new, but has Putin ever claimed to be a liberal democracy? I thought he was more in the China camp where the so called liberal democracy represents a Western system that "doesn't work." It's probably kind of splitting hairs, but I would be interested if there are any sources where he claimed to be those things.

For what it's worth Russia definitely claims that Russian elections are more honest than rigged Western elections, and there is anecdotal evidence that suggests most Russians (possibly up to and including Putin) don't actually understand the differences, e.g. believing that paid protesters are the norm everywhere and Westerners are idiot rubes for thinking otherwise.

How much of this is just deliberate bullshit for propaganda purposes and how much is earnest believed, I could not say.

Xarn
Jun 26, 2015

Fritz the Horse posted:

Against his better judgment, cinci zoo sniper has renewed his contract for another deployment in the trenches.

Goondolences cinci

DarklyDreaming
Apr 4, 2009

Fun scary

the holy poopacy posted:

How much of this is just deliberate bullshit for propaganda purposes and how much is earnest believed, I could not say.

Putin's rhetoric and the actions he takes to back up said rhetoric seem consistent with the belief that everyone is lying about more than 90% of Ukraine wishing to remain independent.

Charliegrs
Aug 10, 2009
When Russia pushes the "Ukrainian government is a fascist neo Nazi government" narrative do they ever point to any particular individuals in the Ukrainian government as being Nazis? Or is it just "the regime"? Like do they actually claim Zelensky or any high ranking military officials are literal Nazis? Do they ever provide evidence? (My guess is either they don't or it's just fabricated crap).

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

WarpedLichen posted:

This is probably a bit too abstract for this thread, but wha? Promoting your personal world view as the broader majority's world view isn't new, but has Putin ever claimed to be a liberal democracy? I thought he was more in the China camp where the so called liberal democracy represents a Western system that "doesn't work." It's probably kind of splitting hairs, but I would be interested if there are any sources where he claimed to be those things.

Some selected quotes below.

Putin in 2000, when asked how Russia can find its own path as a country:
'There's nothing to find, it's already found. It's the path of democratic development. Of course, Russia is a diverse country, but we are part of the Western European culture. This is why our country is so valuable, really. Wherever Russian people live, be it in the far East or in the South, we are Europeans.'

Putin in 2007, when asked if he considers himself a democrat:
'Absolutely, I am a total democrat. But you know what the problem is? Not even a problem, a real tragedy. It's only me. There are no other democrats left. Looks at what's happening in North America. It's a nightmare! Torture, homelessness, Guantanamo, unlawful arrests without any due process. Look at Europe. Cruelty against protestors, rubber bullets, tear gas, in different European capitals, dead protestors in the streets. Not to mention post-Soviet states. We had our hopes high for the guys in Ukraine, but the they've completely discredited themselves. The things there move towards a tyranny. Total disregard of the Constitution, all laws, etc. After Gandhi's death, there's simply nobody to talk to.'

Putin in 2019, in his interview with Financial Times, speaking on liberalism in the West:
'This liberal idea presupposes that nothing needs to be done. That migrants can kill, plunder and rape with impunity because their rights as migrants have to be protected. Every crime must have its punishment. The liberal idea has become obsolete. It has come into conflict with the interests of the overwhelming majority of the population.'

In contrast, Putin in 2021, when asked about his stance on liberalism in Russia:
'If by liberalism you mean freedom of thought, freedom of choice, freedom to search for answers - then of course, we have always had it, we have it now, and will always have it, thank God for that.'

In every annual address, he always stresses the need to strengthen democratic institutions and civic society. Even now, whenever he chastises the West, it's often because they've abandoned freedom of speech and the rule of law. I used the term 'classical liberal' because it's often used by Anglosphere right wingers whose views on culture war perfectly align with Putin's, and in many ways informed his own views on what constitutes a real democracy.

Deltasquid
Apr 10, 2013

awww...
you guys made me ink!


THUNDERDOME

Charliegrs posted:

When Russia pushes the "Ukrainian government is a fascist neo Nazi government" narrative do they ever point to any particular individuals in the Ukrainian government as being Nazis? Or is it just "the regime"? Like do they actually claim Zelensky or any high ranking military officials are literal Nazis? Do they ever provide evidence? (My guess is either they don't or it's just fabricated crap).

It’s none of those things. To them, nazism just means “anti-Russian”. So little Russians rejecting mother Russia are nazis regardless of their actual beliefs or ideology.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Charliegrs posted:

When Russia pushes the "Ukrainian government is a fascist neo Nazi government" narrative do they ever point to any particular individuals in the Ukrainian government as being Nazis? Or is it just "the regime"? Like do they actually claim Zelensky or any high ranking military officials are literal Nazis? Do they ever provide evidence? (My guess is either they don't or it's just fabricated crap).

It's fabricated propaganda, like 'Ukrainian nazis crucify children in Donbas'. But mostly it's not specified.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost
Azov regiment and the Wolf’s angel symbol is the easy target.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Charliegrs posted:

When Russia pushes the "Ukrainian government is a fascist neo Nazi government" narrative do they ever point to any particular individuals in the Ukrainian government as being Nazis? Or is it just "the regime"? Like do they actually claim Zelensky or any high ranking military officials are literal Nazis? Do they ever provide evidence? (My guess is either they don't or it's just fabricated crap).

At this point it is just abstract "regime" because Azov was at first defeated and then Russia safely exchanged its commanders and a lot of renowned members - which is not what dedicated nazi-fighters tend to do.

Charliegrs
Aug 10, 2009

mlmp08 posted:

Azov regiment and the Wolf’s angel symbol is the easy target.

Yes and there plenty of pictures of individual Ukrainian soldiers with very troubling tattoos and insignia. Especially before the 2022 invasion. But that's just individual soldiers, and it's a thing all around the world (no doubt there's plenty of US soldiers with neo Nazis sympathies). But when the Russians claim that Ukraine is lead by a neo Nazi government, you'd think if that were true (it's not) theyd have something to actually point to. And seeing as how I'm not a consumer of Russian propaganda I was wondering if maybe they do have a shred of evidence? But chances are they don't and it's just a bullshit claim.

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Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Charliegrs posted:

When Russia pushes the "Ukrainian government is a fascist neo Nazi government" narrative do they ever point to any particular individuals in the Ukrainian government as being Nazis? Or is it just "the regime"? Like do they actually claim Zelensky or any high ranking military officials are literal Nazis? Do they ever provide evidence? (My guess is either they don't or it's just fabricated crap).

Russian audience are not familiar with Ukrainian politics, so it's rarely about specific official in state propaganda and more about general vibes, random local policies and people. What always gets a lot of attention:
- Torchlight processions and street activism by Ukrainian nationalists in Kyiv and other cities
- Any official recognition of figures and organisations who fought against USSR in WW2, like streets renamed after Bandera, celebrations of SS Galicia anniversaries in Lviv, etc.
- Any drama surrounding Victory Day celebrations. Communism is officially banned in Ukraine as a totalitarian ideology, so flying red flags or wearing a Soviet military uniform on May 9 can get you in trouble
- The neverending stream of photos of Ukrainian soldiers, especially those from Azov, wearing totenkopf chevrons and other nazi paraphernalia

Of course, even though, these are actual real issues that are often brought up by Ukrainian and Western human rights activists alike, you can tell how much Russia actually cares about nazism by how well coverage of the things mentioned above is balanced with narratives about
- LGBT pride parades in Ukraine
- Any official recognition of figures and organisations that fight for rights of women and minorities in Ukraine
- Appropriation by the Russian state of all grassroots symbols and initiatives surrounding Victory Day celebrations in Russia. Drawing any comparisons between the regimes of Hitler and Stalin is also officially banned in Russia, so you can get in trouble by disrespecting the St. George's ribbon or by quoting memoirs of wrong Soviet veterans
- Paying more attention to vetting photos of Russian soldiers, especially those from Wagner, wearing totenkopf chevrons and other nazi paraphernalia and not publishing them by mistake as much as Ukrainian media do with Ukrainian soldiers

Paladinus fucked around with this message at 22:24 on Feb 25, 2023

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