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bird food bathtub posted:Putin has spent decades and decades ensuring that absolutely nobody can launch a coup against him. It's his one area of competence. I really don't see it happening. Even Wagner are just a loud mouthed faction of the military, not enough of it to do anything and their leadership is chosen for loyalty* over competence. And worth noting the vast majority of Wagnerite command is just rich guys playing brutal soldier. There's a good article going into Wangerites that were in the East and fled after encountering resistance from Ukrainian forces, and they basically quit on the spot.
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Feb 27, 2023 16:57
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FrozenVent posted:Forum drama discussion goes… not here. I don’t know where, I don’t care where, but not in the Ukraine thread. Don't do that. It'll interfere with my ability to drop 24s. 
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Feb 27, 2023 16:57
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The admins have opened the SAD thread for providing feedback on the closure of the GBS thread. https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4025159&perpage=40&noseen=1&pagenumber=2 If they open the GBS thread back up, I plan to keep this thread bookmarked as well, it’s been a great alternative perspective on things. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 27, 2023 16:57
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bird food bathtub posted:Putin has spent decades and decades ensuring that absolutely nobody can launch a coup against him. It's his one area of competence. I really don't see it happening. Even Wagner are just a loud mouthed faction of the military, not enough of it to do anything and their leadership is chosen for loyalty* over competence. I think that's actually a misread. There's a mix of views, but there's a reasonable take that 2008-2012 was a genuine attempt to take a step back from the Presidency and from 2012 to 2020 the Kremlin has announced and concluded a number of 'constitutional reform' projects (i.e. Putin retirement and succession plans). The guy is old and has probably been trying to get out of his job for a decade but can't find a way to do it without everything falling apart because he's built a system that can't function without him. The protection groups have been around forever, but it's only in the last couple of years that Russia has taken an diversion down the hardcore authoritarian and coup-proof regime model.
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Feb 27, 2023 17:07
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Oscar Wilde Bunch posted:More MoD / Wagner logistics swiping. Like, the covers off right? Wagner is really just a parallel military organization that owes political allegiance to Putin and not the state right? This seems an awful lot like the in fighting between the Wehrmacht and the Waffen SS.
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Feb 27, 2023 17:13
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Have I not been clear enough? Talk about Ukraine, not Something Awful. gently caress.
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Feb 27, 2023 17:18
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McNally posted:Have I not been clear enough? Talk about Ukraine, not Something Awful. A GB (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 27, 2023 17:37
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Are there any updated estimates or articles on the proportions of Russian armed forces/proper soldiers versus convict conscripts signing a 6-12 month contract and basically given an AK and told to go thatway, active somewhere in Ukraine? I know most of the Wagner dudes, or at least the ones commanded by Wagner dudes, are the ones who got recruited from prisoners are were most in of the bloody human wave attacks and thus the most expendable, but I am curious on the overall makeup as of now.
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Feb 27, 2023 17:38
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Murgos posted:Like, the covers off right? Wagner is really just a parallel military organization that owes political allegiance to Putin and not the state right? This seems an awful lot like the in fighting between the Wehrmacht and the Waffen SS. Tangentially, does the System Putin require constant arbitration by the leader between the personal fiefs like the 3rd Reich System required? I mean, for the 3rd Reich building a parallel military organization directly loyal to H. was a necessity considering the power of the "old elites" aka the Wehrmacht (before 1941), but why did Putin take this path?
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Feb 27, 2023 17:49
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Hay guys, I know some of you're angry and disappointed, but it's not this thread's fault. So, um, maybe don't poo poo it up.  The relevant thread is in SAD and currently open. Just FYI.
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Feb 27, 2023 17:55
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Power Khan posted:Tangentially, does the System Putin require constant arbitration by the leader between the personal fiefs like the 3rd Reich System required? I mean, for the 3rd Reich building a parallel military organization directly loyal to H. was a necessity considering the power of the "old elites" aka the Wehrmacht (before 1941), but why did Putin take this path? I think that's my basic assumption here. I don't think Putin allowed Wagner to get to this point because he thought it would be better at military functions than the Russian Army, I think he did it because he needed a deniable way to exert power externally and as a lever against too much power consolidating in one place in Moscow.
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Feb 27, 2023 17:58
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Please don't gently caress up this thread, or I will beg/bribe IK status, and rule in my proper place as a Benevolent Dictator Ruling with an Arbitrary Iron Fist, fueled by retirement, boredom, and drugs.
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Feb 27, 2023 17:59
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bulletsponge13 posted:Please don't gently caress up this thread, or I will beg/bribe IK status, and rule in my proper place as a Benevolent Dictator Ruling with an Arbitrary Iron Fist, fueled by retirement, boredom, and drugs. As an ex-mod: You do not want this. This is pain.
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Feb 27, 2023 18:00
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EorayMel posted:Are there any updated estimates or articles on the proportions of Russian armed forces/proper soldiers versus convict conscripts signing a 6-12 month contract and basically given an AK and told to go thatway, active somewhere in Ukraine? I know most of the Wagner dudes, or at least the ones commanded by Wagner dudes, are the ones who got recruited from prisoners are were most in of the bloody human wave attacks and thus the most expendable, but I am curious on the overall makeup as of now. It's basically very murky on this front. Mobiks are told to sign up, often given little to no training, told they'd be given x or y position or sent to z place under false pretenses (very commonly, the mobiks complaining are told they get trained to do one thing, say artillery or logistics, and instead get forced into human wave attacks, or promised they'd be taking up positions as occupying forces in the temporarily occupied territory, and sent the same way as the former lot.) Then there's what's left of the contract soldiers/professional army; they're often gathered in groups and attempts are made to force them to sign new contracts for up to a year. It varies depending on what happens to them if they refuse; they either get lucky and nothing happens, or imprisoned with little food and water for a period of time in pits in the ground and sent anyway to penal battalions, etc., and most of the 'elite units' themselves have been destroyed and reconstituted so many times that their actual force compositions are very degraded compared to where they were at the beginning.
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Feb 27, 2023 18:00
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bulletsponge13 posted:The US used the MCLC, the mine clearing charges where it launches a 'rope' of C4 to blow a channel, on building all over Iraq. That's interesting, I've never heard about the US doing that. The size of that explosion pretty much speaks for itself, but how do you even aim this thing? Pen and paper calculations on the spot, or are there tables for this improvised role?
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Feb 27, 2023 18:00
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EorayMel posted:Are there any updated estimates or articles on the proportions of Russian armed forces/proper soldiers versus convict conscripts signing a 6-12 month contract and basically given an AK and told to go thatway, active somewhere in Ukraine? I know most of the Wagner dudes, or at least the ones commanded by Wagner dudes, are the ones who got recruited from prisoners are were most in of the bloody human wave attacks and thus the most expendable, but I am curious on the overall makeup as of now. As best I know Wagner was the only group actively recruiting from prisoners, and estimates had them at maybe 50k or so at max. Estimates of the Russian Armed Force's manpower is around a million or so. Like I said - Wagner is small fry making a lot of noise. Despite the impression they may want to give, they're not actually a complete parallel Russian army waiting in the wings or anything. Edit: They were estimated at maybe 8-9k prior to the war.
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Feb 27, 2023 18:01
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Tomn posted:As best I know Wagner was the only group actively recruiting from prisoners, and estimates had them at maybe 50k or so at max. Estimates of the Russian Armed Force's manpower is around a million or so. Recently Wagner was banned from recruiting further from the prisoner pool. Now only the Russian Army itself is directly recruiting them, and forming penal battalions. This was first confirmed by what happened at Vuhledar and also in a news article I can't seem to find at the moment, from a captured prisoner on the front line.
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Feb 27, 2023 18:04
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Murgos posted:I think that's my basic assumption here. I don't think Putin allowed Wagner to get to this point because he thought it would be better at military functions than the Russian Army, I think he did it because he needed a deniable way to exert power externally and as a lever against too much power consolidating in one place in Moscow. I also wonder if the recent developments of Wagner guys complaining about, say, not getting enough ammo, was Putin's way of punishing Wagner for not taking any meaningful objective fast/good enough(could be very wrong though). Plus Putin's own paranoia(the giant empty table jokes) and self-preservation of limiting Wagner trying to get any funny ideas about their superiors. zone posted:It's basically very murky on this front. Mobiks are told to sign up, often given little to no training, told they'd be given x or y position or sent to z place under false pretenses (very commonly, the mobiks complaining are told they get trained to do one thing, say artillery or logistics, and instead get forced into human wave attacks, or promised they'd be taking up positions as occupying forces in the temporarily occupied territory, and sent the same way as the former lot.) Then there's what's left of the contract soldiers/professional army; they're often gathered in groups and attempts are made to force them to sign new contracts for up to a year. It varies depending on what happens to them if they refuse; they either get lucky and nothing happens, or imprisoned with little food and water for a period of time in pits in the ground and sent anyway to penal battalions, etc., and most of the 'elite units' themselves have been destroyed and reconstituted so many times that their actual force compositions are very degraded compared to where they were at the beginning. Tomn posted:As best I know Wagner was the only group actively recruiting from prisoners, and estimates had them at maybe 50k or so at max. Estimates of the Russian Armed Force's manpower is around a million or so. zone posted:Recently Wagner was banned from recruiting further from the prisoner pool. Now only the Russian Army itself is directly recruiting them, and forming penal battalions. This was first confirmed by what happened at Vuhledar and also in a news article I can't seem to find at the moment, from a captured prisoner on the front line. Really interesting, thanks. I also wonder how many of them went from prisoner->contracted soldier->managed to desert/surrender/run the gently caress away without anybody noticing and just going anywhere but into the Ukraine meatgrinder or back into Russian hands in reality, despite however little information there is. I also know about the POW swaps and uh...usually doesn't end well for the guys given back to Russia, especially if they were the Wagner contract fighters.
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Feb 27, 2023 18:08
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Power Khan posted:That's interesting, I've never heard about the US doing that. The size of that explosion pretty much speaks for itself, but how do you even aim this thing? Pen and paper calculations on the spot, or are there tables for this improvised role? I'm assuming it's 'Chuck in direction of enemy with fingers crossed' at this point.
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Feb 27, 2023 18:09
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https://warontherocks.com/2023/02/the-war-will-grind-on-reflecting-on-a-year-of-war-in-ukraine/quote:Today, the Russian military is at the nadir of its strength: fielding poorly trained and poorly coordinated units with a diminishing stock of munitions. But, as is always the case in war, the enemy’s weakness is only significant if you have the capacity to capitalize upon it. RUSI's Jack Watling is easily the most insightful commentator on the current state of the war I've found over the last year, especially when it comes to pinpointing policy shortcomings and identifying future trouble areas.
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Feb 27, 2023 18:16
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Was Wagner the Russian group in Syria that attacked a SoF group and got their attacking force annihilated by air strikes or was that some other deniable Russian merc group?
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Feb 27, 2023 18:21
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Soylent Pudding posted:Was Wagner the Russian group in Syria that attacked a SoF group and got their attacking force annihilated by air strikes or was that some other deniable Russian merc group? That was them, yes.
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Feb 27, 2023 18:24
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Soylent Pudding posted:Was Wagner the Russian group in Syria that attacked a SoF group and got their attacking force annihilated by air strikes or was that some other deniable Russian merc group? Same Wagner, mixed with some Syrian forces.
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Feb 27, 2023 18:24
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zone posted:Recently Wagner was banned from recruiting further from the prisoner pool. Now only the Russian Army itself is directly recruiting them, and forming penal battalions. This was first confirmed by what happened at Vuhledar and also in a news article I can't seem to find at the moment, from a captured prisoner on the front line. Exclusive: Russian convicts say defense ministry is sending them from jail to fight as 'cannon fodder' in Ukraine
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Feb 27, 2023 18:33
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Cool Kids Club Soda posted:Exclusive: Russian convicts say defense ministry is sending them from jail to fight as 'cannon fodder' in Ukraine aye, that's the one, thanks.
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Feb 27, 2023 18:34
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Soylent Pudding posted:Was Wagner the Russian group in Syria that attacked a SoF group and got their attacking force annihilated by air strikes or was that some other deniable Russian merc group? heh those wagners got absolutely obliterated. I think in the course of the battle they got hit with AC-130s, F-22s, F-15s, some Reaper drones, a few Apaches, and a B-52 strike and that's not even getting into the artillery and HIMARS support
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Feb 27, 2023 18:38
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FrozenVent posted:Forum drama discussion goes… not here. I don’t know where, I don’t care where, but not in the Ukraine thread. Get your own gimmick
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Feb 27, 2023 18:40
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HonorableTB posted:heh those wagners got absolutely obliterated. I think in the course of the battle they got hit with AC-130s, F-22s, F-15s, some Reaper drones, a few Apaches, and a B-52 strike and that's not even getting into the artillery and HIMARS support Wasn't there a translated post from a wagnerite a few weeks back explaining how they weren't humiliated, actually, because a surprising number of them survived?
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Feb 27, 2023 19:04
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Computer viking posted:Wasn't there a translated post from a wagnerite a few weeks back explaining how they weren't humiliated, actually, because a surprising number of them survived? I'd argue two would be a surprising number against a red white and blue patriotic hellstorm
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Feb 27, 2023 19:06
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I can of course not find a trace of that post when looking for it, so consider it unsourced at best.
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Feb 27, 2023 19:10
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Tomn posted:There was also that photo early on in the war about that one Polish volunteer helping load Ukrainian aid supplies while wearing a hentai hoodie. Anyone with the mojo to wear those in public, they gently caress.
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Feb 27, 2023 19:31
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https://twitter.com/NikaMelkozerova/status/1630245722875461633 I haven't seen a voenkor seething this hard since the great Kharkiv goodwill gesture, and that's saying something. e: crude google translation; quote:Zastavny #serezhahome zone fucked around with this message at 20:54 on Feb 27, 2023 |
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Feb 27, 2023 19:35
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Computer viking posted:Wasn't there a translated post from a wagnerite a few weeks back explaining how they weren't humiliated, actually, because a surprising number of them survived? Hmm, I remember seeing something like that as well. Was able to find these tweets on the topic: https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1624540493911666690 https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1622891726070226945
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Feb 27, 2023 19:38
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Power Khan posted:That's interesting, I've never heard about the US doing that. The size of that explosion pretty much speaks for itself, but how do you even aim this thing? Pen and paper calculations on the spot, or are there tables for this improvised role? The US is different than that Russian system; I'm not an engineer, so I only know from what I've seen and studied. The US Vehicle launch mine clearing charge can collapse residential buildings in Iraq.
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Feb 27, 2023 19:41
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https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1630260975973670912
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Feb 27, 2023 19:55
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Its disturbing how often these guys just....go full bore into minefields.
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Feb 27, 2023 20:01
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CommieGIR posted:Its disturbing how often these guys just....go full bore into minefields. It lets all the other guys know where the mines aren't now!
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Feb 27, 2023 20:02
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CommieGIR posted:Its disturbing how often these guys just....go full bore into minefields. Speaking of which.... https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/status/1630275423077539840
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Feb 27, 2023 20:04
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So if you go fast enough theoretically you can survive infinite mines? I mean a dumbfuck idea i know but thats kinda funny
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Feb 27, 2023 20:15
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Artificer posted:So if you go fast enough theoretically you can survive infinite mines? Feels like someone trying to use Half Life glitches to speedrun the minefield 
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Feb 27, 2023 20:24
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