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KillHour posted:I'm really hoping they're right that Russia will run out of personnel 10 months ago I did a double-take on that too, but apparently they're arguing that the shortage of personnel was the reason behind the mobilization in 2022 that was only partially fixed and is still a perennial issue. Apparently they're suggesting that Putin shied away from the Ministry of Defense arguing they needed mobilization as long as he could, relying on Wagner and nationalist milbloggers to drum up volunteers as much as possible, but the ISW suggests that Putin seems to be coming around to the idea that only the MoD can actually generate the manpower needed to do what he wants - that seems to be part of what's getting Prigozhin dumpstered lately.
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Feb 27, 2023 17:19
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If China walks up and gives a “thoughts and prayers” level of response, the immediate reaction is to slap back but as an adult you know that can’t work. Zelenskyy is smart enough to know to give Xi the attention he wants and in doing so, will “weaken Russia”. Like sometimes you have to hear the sales pitch before you can get to the meat of the idea. We’ve been living in times of yelling and worst case scenario hypothesizing and it’s broke our brains to see that. Thankfully, Zelenskyy keeps proving to be the right person for the time and job. Imagine being that level headed while facing annihilation.
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Feb 27, 2023 17:21
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Tomn posted:It's a bit grim, but I can't help but wonder how Russia's overall ideological makeup will be altered over time if Putin actually has been leaning on ultranationalist influencers to find volunteers - what happens when the most die-hard types go into a conflict where the odds of injury or death are very high, and the survivors have a good chance of walking away with trauma? its because those guys are too busy being hosed up psychos in the rear lines or after the dust settled in occupied territory. the ones taking the brunt are the hodgepoge RU remnant, the conscripts, penal legion and wagner mercs, who also all hate each other. also i believe the wagner psyho who took skulls got fragged by his own men, but id have to fine the thread.
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Feb 27, 2023 17:56
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Tomn posted:It's a bit grim, but I can't help but wonder how Russia's overall ideological makeup will be altered over time if Putin actually has been leaning on ultranationalist influencers to find volunteers - what happens when the most die-hard types go into a conflict where the odds of injury or death are very high, and the survivors have a good chance of walking away with trauma? Honestly? I'm fearful that a stab-in-the-back myth is all but unavoidable in Russia now. There's basically no realistic way for Russia to achieve its objectives, so at some point they will have to satisfy themselves with a partial victory that will leave the ultranationalists screeching or a straight-up defeat. In both cases you will get "we were this close to total victory but the chickenshit bureaucrats wouldn't make the hard decisions™ necessary to let us win" and the political fallout won't be pretty.
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Feb 27, 2023 17:57
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Tomn posted:I did a double-take on that too, but apparently they're arguing that the shortage of personnel was the reason behind the mobilization in 2022 that was only partially fixed and is still a perennial issue. Apparently they're suggesting that Putin shied away from the Ministry of Defense arguing they needed mobilization as long as he could, relying on Wagner and nationalist milbloggers to drum up volunteers as much as possible, but the ISW suggests that Putin seems to be coming around to the idea that only the MoD can actually generate the manpower needed to do what he wants - that seems to be part of what's getting Prigozhin dumpstered lately. Wasn't Prigozhin already getting dumpstered when Gerasimov got reappointed in January? I thought that was about as clear about where Putin's favor was as anything.
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Feb 27, 2023 17:58
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Deltasquid posted:Honestly? I'm fearful that a stab-in-the-back myth is all but unavoidable in Russia now. There's basically no realistic way for Russia to achieve its objectives, so at some point they will have to satisfy themselves with a partial victory that will leave the ultranationalists screeching or a straight-up defeat. In both cases you will get "we were this close to total victory but the chickenshit bureaucrats wouldn't make the hard decisions™ necessary to let us win" and the political fallout won't be pretty. yeah thats my worry too. if putin does get a failure drill and then go sky diving from 8th story window, its not gonna be some decent person taking over after probably.
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Feb 27, 2023 18:03
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WarpedLichen posted:Wasn't Prigozhin already getting dumpstered when Gerasimov got reappointed in January? I thought that was about as clear about where Putin's favor was as anything. That's what they meant, yes - Gerasimov's appointment seemed to herald Putin placing more confidence in the MoD and starting to trust that they have better answers on how to win the war (as opposed to earlier, when he was actively distrustful of the MoD - or so they analyze, anyways).
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Feb 27, 2023 18:06
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Also Big Train Man is headed for bigger and better things (gonna credit Cinci for calling this one about a week ago): He's not even changing jobs, just moving to an EU branch office of the national rail of Ukraine. Moon Slayer posted:Germany gonna Germany. Karnitschnig is a known quantity, and is alright to read. Likes to really rip into German politicians.
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Feb 27, 2023 18:10
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I am curious if the new German defense minister will make a difference there.
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Feb 27, 2023 18:19
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OddObserver posted:I am curious if the new German defense minister will make a difference there. I vaguely remember folks saying it’s a dumping ground, and that scholz was still mostly in charge, is the new guy some politically connected? I think he was an interior minister of Bavaria, but no idea how important that is.
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Feb 27, 2023 18:29
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freeasinbeer posted:I vaguely remember folks saying it’s a dumping ground, and that scholz was still mostly in charge, is the new guy some politically connected? I think he was an interior minister of Bavaria, but no idea how important that is. He's somewhat of a Scholz confidant, and this I suspect that Scholz is seeing real risks in his government not surviving a “default” Bundeswehr. Consequently, my money is (carefully) on Pistorius being adept both at politics and at running a large public organization. There's another question on how Scholz means for things to happen, and a stupid plan executed well is a stupid plan first and foremost, but I think that the jury is rather far out on Pistorius being another comedy relief defence minister.
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Feb 27, 2023 18:48
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freeasinbeer posted:I vaguely remember folks saying it’s a dumping ground, and that scholz was still mostly in charge, is the new guy some politically connected? I think he was an interior minister of Bavaria, but no idea how important that is. Lower Saxony is not Bavaria  In any event, he left a very positive impression upon the population, according to surveys he is the most popular politician in Germany.
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Feb 27, 2023 18:52
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freeasinbeer posted:I vaguely remember folks saying it’s a dumping ground, and that scholz was still mostly in charge, is the new guy some politically connected? I think he was an interior minister of Bavaria, but no idea how important that is. Folks were saying it WAS a dumping ground, yes. Recent events might have triggered a certain rethinking of this stance.
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Feb 27, 2023 18:54
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Tomn posted:It's a bit grim, but I can't help but wonder how Russia's overall ideological makeup will be altered over time if Putin actually has been leaning on ultranationalist influencers to find volunteers - what happens when the most die-hard types go into a conflict where the odds of injury or death are very high, and the survivors have a good chance of walking away with trauma? See, Post-WW2 West Germany, maybe? I can't think of too many actual analogues to this particular can of worms
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Feb 27, 2023 18:59
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Some really bizarre stuff is happening in Russia, and it's sort of tangentially related to the war. https://www.easternherald.com/2023/02/27/pmc-ryodan-what-is-known-about-the-informal-grouping-and-detentions-of-teenagers-throughout-russia/ (The translation in the article is a bit dodgy, but it's the only place that reported on this in English) An anime-inspired gang of anti-immigrant teenagers that call themselves a PMC. Allegedly, the group planned fights with football fans or maybe pogroms on immigrant workers. In the end over 300 teenagers (most of whom are minors) were detained, mostly in Moscow.
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Feb 27, 2023 19:30
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Daily defmon thread up: mild  I think there's a video of IFVs engaging in combat that I didn't watchhttps://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1630270274032775168 https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1630271727467995136 No evidence of extensive flooding from blowing up the dam there I guess. It does look like the Ukrainians are focusing harder/having more success in the South. Wonder if they can secure that highway for evac/logistics.
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Feb 27, 2023 19:39
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WarpedLichen posted:It does look like the Ukrainians are focusing harder/having more success in the South. Wonder if they can secure that highway for evac/logistics. The southern highway has a bridge missing. Things are, uhh, tense.
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Feb 27, 2023 19:54
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Successive conservative governments have destroyed the Bundeswehr's ability to spend money. You can unload comically giant sacks of money on the MoD's driveway and it wouldn't help because procurement's hosed. This is going to take a long time to untangle, and the jury's out on whether Pistorius will manage it. This is similar to how the conservatives hobbled Germany's ability to take on debt to deal with crises like this one. I suspect cinci is going to start looking at me funny if I start going in depth in this thread, but I'm going to part with this org chart that is too big to embed. e: the shading represents whether the unit is in Bonn (the old seat of government) or in Berlin. This is for hysterical reasons. Antigravitas fucked around with this message at 20:06 on Feb 27, 2023 |
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Feb 27, 2023 20:04
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Yeah, I feel this chart might be better suited for having a laugh in the Germany thread. My contribution to that topic though would be the NYT explainer on the state of German army – I found it to be quite comprehensive, and it talks a lot about the procurement woes. We discussed it in the thread around the date of publication. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/24/magazine/germany-military-army.html
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Feb 27, 2023 20:14
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StrangersInTheNight posted:To believe this you must ignore that it's not 1980 anymore and that Russia is no longer communist, but capitalist with a communist veneer slapped across it. I think the term for what Russia and China are now is "authoritarian capitalist" and it bums me out when people in the west seem willing to embrace it. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 27, 2023 20:29
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Dandywalken posted:Has there been any satellite confirmation on the A-50 being hit yet, or nothing? Didn't they only claim that it was "damaged"? If it was hit badly enough that it couldn't be moved it would probably claimed as destroyed, so it's probably under cover now.
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Feb 27, 2023 21:34
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Tuna-Fish posted:Didn't they only claim that it was "damaged"? If it was hit badly enough that it couldn't be moved it would probably claimed as destroyed, so it's probably under cover now. Correct, the claim was "took damage".
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Feb 27, 2023 21:50
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Deltasquid posted:Honestly? I'm fearful that a stab-in-the-back myth is all but unavoidable in Russia now. There's basically no realistic way for Russia to achieve its objectives, so at some point they will have to satisfy themselves with a partial victory that will leave the ultranationalists screeching or a straight-up defeat. In both cases you will get "we were this close to total victory but the chickenshit bureaucrats wouldn't make the hard decisions™ necessary to let us win" and the political fallout won't be pretty. This could be possible unless the defeat is utter and complete. In his series of Yale lectures, Timothy Snyder notes this as the reason for Germany (and France) not going to war with each other again after WW2. The defeat inflicted on Germany was so all-encompassing that another war became an unpalatable and unfeasible idea to all of German society. The cost is simply too high. Other European powers, even the victorious ones, more or less learnt this as well, but none did to the same extent Germany did.
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Feb 27, 2023 22:28
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There's the Falklands outcome: everyone in Russia agrees that the cause of the war was just and right, but the war itself was an appalling disaster not to be repeated.
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Feb 27, 2023 22:32
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Pope Hilarius II posted:This could be possible unless the defeat is utter and complete. In his series of Yale lectures, Timothy Snyder notes this as the reason for Germany (and France) not going to war with each other again after WW2. The defeat inflicted on Germany was so all-encompassing that another war became an unpalatable and unfeasible idea to all of German society. The cost is simply too high. Other European powers, even the victorious ones, more or less learnt this as well, but none did to the same extent Germany did. It's hard to see how that happens. Germany was comprehensively defeated in WWI - but it was comprehensively defeated in France rather than in Germany. So the stab-in-the-back myth was easy to take root because Germany was elsewhere holding French soil for the whole war and Germans were fed a steady diet of propaganda and then poof everything collapses. No matter how badly Russia loses it seems rather unlikely to lose WWII-style with the Ukranian flag flying over Moscow (the whole "nuclear weapons" thing) and so it seems unfortunately very likely to end in a similar way to WWI at best, where the army collapses in the field and the country abandons the war, but without the reality of the loss being laid bare for the public to see beyond reasonable denial. So I don't really see how you get to that "utter and complete" defeat short of a wizard making all of russia's nukes vanish.
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Feb 27, 2023 22:35
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Putin will find new internal enemies to go after as scapegoats. Some think it might be Proghozin and Wagner who end up bring the fall guys. But whose to say, ethnic and religious minorities tend to be targets of such things more often then not.
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Feb 27, 2023 22:38
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Is there actually any merit to the idea that you can so comprehensively defeat a people militarily that they never go to war again? People keep talking about a few examples where "we didn't do it, and look where that got us" and then always "look at Germany and Japan, we got em" but is there any evidence to suggest that's a causation and not a correlation? Because I feel like if I needed to, I could put together a reasonably long list of historical examples of people being "comprehensively defeated militarily" or whatever but not necessarily giving up on the war idea
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Feb 27, 2023 22:59
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Alchenar posted:There's the Falklands outcome: everyone in Russia agrees that the cause of the war was just and right, but the war itself was an appalling disaster not to be repeated.
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Feb 27, 2023 23:04
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boofhead posted:Is there actually any merit to the idea that you can so comprehensively defeat a people militarily that they never go to war again? People keep talking about a few examples where "we didn't do it, and look where that got us" and then always "look at Germany and Japan, we got em" but is there any evidence to suggest that's a causation and not a correlation? Because I feel like if I needed to, I could put together a reasonably long list of historical examples of people being "comprehensively defeated militarily" or whatever but not necessarily giving up on the war idea Hard to see these things happening with Russia. Cicero fucked around with this message at 23:33 on Feb 27, 2023 |
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Feb 27, 2023 23:30
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Pablo Bluth posted:There's nothing just and right about Argentina's claim to the Falklands. The current society living there are the only humans to have ever lived there as anything more than transitory, and they have the right to self-determination. Argentina's "It's close to use so it is ours" is just imperialism. Only the penguins and the extinct wolves have a stronger claim. I don’t think he meant to say the claim is just and right. He just said that’s what Argentinians think.
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Feb 27, 2023 23:44
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Pablo Bluth posted:There's nothing just and right about Argentina's claim to the Falklands. The current society living there are the only humans to have ever lived there as anything more than transitory, and they have the right to self-determination. Argentina's "It's close to use so it is ours" is just imperialism. Only the penguins and the extinct wolves have a stronger claim. Hmm seems like Alchenars analogy is extremely sound then
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Feb 27, 2023 23:58
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https://twitter.com/d_foubert/status/1630255668182614019 The effort to rebuild Ukraine's air forces is taking an unexpected turn.
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Feb 28, 2023 00:15
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FMguru posted:https://twitter.com/d_foubert/status/1630255668182614019 Hm, that looks more like a captured Imperial Russian MIG, to me.
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Feb 28, 2023 00:21
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boofhead posted:Is there actually any merit to the idea that you can so comprehensively defeat a people militarily that they never go to war again? People keep talking about a few examples where "we didn't do it, and look where that got us" and then always "look at Germany and Japan, we got em" but is there any evidence to suggest that's a causation and not a correlation? Because I feel like if I needed to, I could put together a reasonably long list of historical examples of people being "comprehensively defeated militarily" or whatever but not necessarily giving up on the war idea I think the obvious issue here is that "never" is doing a lot of heavy lifting since history is still on-going - even with the success story of Japan, these days there's some uncomfortable rumblings about their far-right as well as relatively reasonable calls to rearm in view of China's increasing aggression. But also the idea of "defeating a rival and eliminating them as a threat forever by turning them into "good guys"" is very recent, relatively speaking, and hasn't really had a lot of test cases yet. Even Versailles wasn't so much about trying to reform the inherent militarism of Germany or whatnot as much as it was about trying to make sure the defeated powers were too practically neutered to render a threat again without cutting them out of the international order entirely, and history prior to that tended to be even more nakedly imperialist where the goal was to render enemies non-threatening by causing them to cease to exist, ideally. Like, people point to WW2 as the great ur-example, but relatively speaking we're in uncharted waters and I don't know if any historians or sociologists can accurately and confidently say that there is One True Method to turn warmongers into pacifists because up until very recently nobody was really trying to accomplish that. Maybe there is a way to comprehensively defeat your enemies in such a way as to cause them to integrate into the world order. Maybe it varies wildly by a case by case basis depending on the specific countries, their histories, and the circumstances of the war. And maybe there actually isn't any way to ensure lasting peace and pacifism and two centuries from now Neo-Japan will bomb Pearl Harbor with drone fleets and in the meantime all we can do is to try and ensure peace for the next generation at least. It's kinda hard to say for sure. But we can PROBABLY accurately guess that giving Putin a bloody nose in Ukraine but allowing him to lick his wounds in the Kremlin in peace isn't going to by itself foster a pacifist, internationalist political movement in Russia. Unfortunately I'm not sure I see any realistic way to accomplish that. evilweasel posted:It's hard to see how that happens. Germany was comprehensively defeated in WWI - but it was comprehensively defeated in France rather than in Germany. So the stab-in-the-back myth was easy to take root because Germany was elsewhere holding French soil for the whole war and Germans were fed a steady diet of propaganda and then poof everything collapses. I will note that from my understanding, there actually was a widespread sense IMMEDIATELY after the war that "Yep, Germany lost in the field all right" in Germany. It took some time for the stab-in-the-back thing to get traction again, prior to that everyone was keenly aware of the effects the blockade was having on daily life and how hosed things were. Incidentally, most Germans weren't really happy about invading Poland and triggering war with France and the UK again either, because they remembered what happened last time. There was a real sense of euphoric surprise when Hitler actually managed to pull off the invasion of France successfully.
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Feb 28, 2023 00:51
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Forgot to post about the new G7 sanctions package. EU package https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_1185 quote:More banned entities, seemingly focusing on child kidnappers and the propaganda apparatus; U.S. package https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1296 quote:Blocking sanctions against anyone operating in Russia's metals and mining industry; UK package https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-sanctions-ban-every-item-russia-is-using-on-the-battlefield quote:Export ban on everything UK makes that has been found in Russian equipment in Ukraine; This was all through a G7 coordination, it seems, but some countries, like Japan, are yet to post theirs so that I can find them. Also, at least the EU and the UK (I assume the US either already, or in a separate document) packages include sanctions against the Iranian drone industry. https://www.reuters.com/world/japan-preparing-new-russian-sanctions-with-g7-partners-2023-02-24/ IMO, the most important thing right now is to fight sanctions busting hard, but I think that it's going to take some time and run us through some interesting limits of it for the right and the wrong reasons.
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Feb 28, 2023 01:48
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Hey Cinci, are Girkin statements still okay to post here? If so, he is quite sad today: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1630175329422655489?s=20 Some good quotes: Igor Strelkov-Girkin posted:"Days, like grains of sand in an hourglass, flow away and flow away...." Igor Strelkov-Girkin posted:"Decision making centers" in Kyiv make decisions in the most comfortable and safe way, no one even tried to endanger them so far..." Igor Strelkov-Girkin posted:"And the only 'entertainment' for angry patriots dumbfounded by reality is the public mutual scuffle paid for by gentlemen Shoigu and Prigozhin..."
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Feb 28, 2023 02:02
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FMguru posted:https://twitter.com/d_foubert/status/1630255668182614019
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Feb 28, 2023 02:08
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Was fine, for that statement on the last page at least.  More seriously speaking, it's fine, and statements themselves from him or various other Z-bloggers and propagandists are also in themselves fine. What I'm not a fan of the more repetitive genre of posting that can be reduced “lmao they're dumb” or “wow they're evil”, when you start cycling that stuff as this weird Kremlin scryer porn or whatever even would the term be here. But that has to be a pattern of behaviour, and there are plenty of genuinely interesting conversations to be had around significant messaging changes seen in Girkin's or similar programming. Especially with the ascendant, as there must be quite the Hunger Games going in the army and the security circles. Cicero posted:Eh? That picture very much looks like it's in the states, judging by...well, basically everything. It's a joke post. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 02:13 on Feb 28, 2023 |
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Feb 28, 2023 02:11
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cinci zoo sniper posted:UK package https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-sanctions-ban-every-item-russia-is-using-on-the-battlefield So how is the UK defining the list of materials found in Russian equipment? Are they making a list somewhere? I'm more familiar with the US EAR mechanism, so I'm curious how they're targeting specific items.
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Feb 28, 2023 02:13
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WarpedLichen posted:So how is the UK defining the list of materials found in Russian equipment? Are they making a list somewhere? I'm more familiar with the US EAR mechanism, so I'm curious how they're targeting specific items. This sounds like there's some back office, if I had to assume a place then in eastern Poland, where novel war remains get hauled to for forensics, and then disseminated upstream to the allies. I believe that the MIC part of this sanctions package on the EU end did also go off a manner of a similar catalogue, which leads me to speculate that this is rigorous, centralized lab operation somewhere.
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Feb 28, 2023 02:16
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