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What is the most powerful flying bug?
This poll is closed.
🦋 15 3.71%
🦇 115 28.47%
🪰 12 2.97%
🐦 67 16.58%
dragonfly 94 23.27%
🦟 14 3.47%
🐝 87 21.53%
Total: 404 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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IAMNOTADOCTOR
Sep 26, 2013

Been reading some of this thread back and made a lukewarm observation

- cspam Ukraine thread: good at historic events, less good as current events, really bad at predicting future events.

Does that sound fair?

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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006
let us not forget the soviet union's most terrible crime, going to war with the taliban

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

miss u fidel

e: i was sure we had a cuba emote

kronix
Jul 1, 2004

IAMNOTADOCTOR posted:

Been reading some of this thread back and made a lukewarm observation

- cspam Ukraine thread: good at historic events, less good as current events, really bad at predicting future events.

Does that sound fair?

This is a perfect

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Ytlaya posted:

You know what's hosed up?

When people don't support NATO and democracy

speng31b
May 8, 2010

IAMNOTADOCTOR posted:

Been reading some of this thread back and made a lukewarm observation

- cspam Ukraine thread: good at historic events, less good as current events, really bad at predicting future events.

Does that sound fair?

i think that could also be used to describe almost any discussion of any news that has ever happened

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

IAMNOTADOCTOR posted:

Been reading some of this thread back and made a lukewarm observation

- cspam Ukraine thread: good at historic events, less good as current events, really bad at predicting future events.

Does that sound fair?

I predicted a long nasty stalemate as far back as 2014; my future prediction skills are AT LEAST 50/50.

Cuttlefush
Jan 15, 2014

gotta have my purp

IAMNOTADOCTOR posted:

Been reading some of this thread back and made a lukewarm observation

- cspam Ukraine thread: good at historic events, less good as current events, really bad at predicting future events.

Does that sound fair?

Just wait. When the current events become historic we'll have been good on at least some of them.

The predictions are all hosed up though, yeah. Al-Saqr is the only one any good at it.

IAMNOTADOCTOR
Sep 26, 2013

speng31b posted:

i think that could also be used to describe almost any discussion of any news that has ever happened

Nah, the GBS thread for instance was better at predictions and arguably current events. But pretty bad at the historic perspective.

If you ask people here why the feel that way they feel about current events, it's usually based on some historic perspective.

paul_soccer12
Jan 5, 2020

by Fluffdaddy

IAMNOTADOCTOR posted:

Nah, the GBS thread for instance was better at predictions and arguably current events.

Word

speng31b
May 8, 2010

IAMNOTADOCTOR posted:

Nah, the GBS thread for instance was better at predictions and arguably current events. But pretty bad at the historic perspective.

If you ask people here why the feel that way they feel about current events, it's usually based on some historic perspective.

interesting

Cromulent_Chill
Apr 6, 2009

IAMNOTADOCTOR posted:

Nah, the GBS thread for instance was better at predictions and arguably current events. But pretty bad at the historic perspective.

If you ask people here why the feel that way they feel about current events, it's usually based on some historic perspective.

Lmao what did GBS predict?

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer
for instance the GBS thread correctly predicted that Russians were all shadow men from the 1488th dimension who would 'genocide all of Ukraine'

and that's what happened :(

Zeppelin Insanity
Oct 28, 2009

Wahnsinn
Einfach
Wahnsinn
It is true CSPAM is informed by an understanding of previous events. This might look very strange to someone unburdened by this.

Leandros
Dec 14, 2008

IAMNOTADOCTOR posted:

If you ask people here why the feel that way they feel about current events, it's usually based on some historic perspective.
As a tachyonic creature I actually inform my worldview from future events

Cuttlefush
Jan 15, 2014

gotta have my purp

IAMNOTADOCTOR posted:

Nah, the GBS thread for instance was better at predictions and arguably current events. But pretty bad at the historic perspective.

If you ask people here why the feel that way they feel about current events, it's usually based on some historic perspective.

how exactly do you verify a given prediction or current event? I mean, I know how. I'm just saying consider the veracity of any given source. And see how things shake out 20 years down the road.

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006

Regarde Aduck posted:

for instance the GBS thread correctly predicted that Russians were all shadow men from the 1488th dimension who would 'genocide all of Ukraine'

and that's what happened :(

remember the "the russians will be out of ammo inside of two weeks" from back in april
good times

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely

Cromulent_Chill posted:

Lmao what did GBS predict?

They predicted that the sanctions would work and the Russian army would be out of supplies by the 3rd week of the war

John Charity Spring
Nov 4, 2009

SCREEEEE

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:

remember the "the russians will be out of ammo inside of two weeks" from back in april
good times

the always reliable bellingcat

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

F Stop Fitzgerald posted:

lmao they got Nicholas II on it

e: and bandera!

Slava

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

IAMNOTADOCTOR posted:

Been reading some of this thread back and made a lukewarm observation

- cspam Ukraine thread: good at historic events, less good as current events, really bad at predicting future events.

Does that sound fair?

No, given that the future hasn't been determined yet, OP.

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006

John Charity Spring posted:

the always reliable bellingcat

the internal documentation showing that even western intelligence services' take on them is "you say whatever you're paid to say, and as such are useless as anything but PR" owns

Al!
Apr 2, 2010

:coolspot::coolspot::coolspot::coolspot::coolspot:
this thread is dedicated to the brave warriors of the mujahadeen

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Won't someone think of the poor Nazi collaborators who the soviets senselessly murdered.

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Won't someone think of the poor Nazi collaborators who the soviets senselessly murdered.

in fairness, kronix has good reason to find the statement "it's okay to kill collaborators with a genocidal regime" personally threatening

Cao Ni Ma
May 25, 2010



The GBS thread loved predicting russians turning into red mist and then posting video evidence of it

IAMNOTADOCTOR
Sep 26, 2013

Cromulent_Chill posted:

Lmao what did GBS predict?

It's less of predicting things correctly and more making less incorrect predictions. Just my opinion but:

- first prediction: will Russia invad

- looking back at the first thread in cspam: thinking this war would be over in a couple of weeks by a total Russian steamrolling.Volksturm etc. Based on mostly wishful thinking somehow GBS were correct that Ukraine would drive Russia to a standstill.

- cspam predicting the sinking of the Moskva to be fake

- c spam predicting the Ukrainian counteroffensives to be ineffective, Kherson to never be recaptured. GBS were overly optimistic but closer to what eventually happened.

- Good predictions from GBS: return of penal battalions as fodder.

- This is going to get me in trouble:
But they correctly predicted the current Russian ammo shortage that Girkinn was posting about.

Lord of Pie
Mar 2, 2007


glad to live in freedom loving America, a country with no corruption whatsoever

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

kronix posted:

When you're not furiously googling for my posting history so you can post out of context bullshit I posted on this website, you're straight up making poo poo up because so you can own me on the internet.

Fact: The US spent a shitload of money trying to rebuild Iraq, it went poorly.
Fact: Russia will try to do the same in Ukraine but with less resources, it will also go poorly.

It turns out if you kill someones child, they don't really a give a poo poo that you built a new school or fix the water treatment plant you destroyed. In the case of Ukrainians they'll get a case of frozen fish or a new Lada.

Maybe you can make 10 more posts about how I worked for a contractor a decade ago but still somehow get a warcrime residual check for all the good work I did in a dark lab in the mid aughts.

lmao, remembering posts made in the thread is googling

megalmao that you still have a child's conception of investment grift.

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

IAMNOTADOCTOR posted:

It's less of predicting things correctly and more making less incorrect predictions. Just my opinion but:

- first prediction: will Russia invad

- looking back at the first thread in cspam: thinking this war would be over in a couple of weeks by a total Russian steamrolling.Volksturm etc. Based on mostly wishful thinking somehow GBS were correct that Ukraine would drive Russia to a standstill.

- cspam predicting the sinking of the Moskva to be fake

- c spam predicting the Ukrainian counteroffensives to be ineffective, Kherson to never be recaptured. GBS were overly optimistic but closer to what eventually happened.

- Good predictions from GBS: return of penal battalions as fodder.

- This is going to get me in trouble:
But they correctly predicted the current Russian ammo shortage that Girkinn was posting about.

i dont really think the moskva thing counts a predication, that was more quibbling over it early ukrainian claims or the pentagon saying it was towed to port were accurate

Homeless Friend
Jul 16, 2007
sounds like somebody needs to update kronix thread invasion software

3
Aug 26, 2006

The Magic Number


College Slice

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:

in fairness, kronix has good reason to find the statement "it's okay to kill collaborators with a genocidal regime" personally threatening

lmao

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006
GBS didn't accurately predict the actual invasion. I got threatened with probation for Clancychat for stating that it was obvious the invasion was about to happen once the cyber attacks happened because at that point Russia was following the same playbook as before, and got into a toxx in D&D over the same thing

GBS most posters got that one way wrong and I won a toxx off of being right. Instead of bans I made the stipulation to donate to humanitarian aid

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold
did the pentagon ever explain why they thought the moskva made it back to sevestopol lol

Chillgamesh
Jul 29, 2014

To be fair about c-spam and the initial invasion it was less “they won’t invade” and more “they won’t invade because they’ll get royally hosed by the mud” which is what happened after they invaded

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:

the internal documentation showing that even western intelligence services' take on them is "you say whatever you're paid to say, and as such are useless as anything but PR" owns

i think the only people that didn't know what Bellingcat was about were themselves

Brown Moses used to post about how he's totally not a CIA asset they just give him info free of charge from time to time

Cromulent_Chill
Apr 6, 2009

IAMNOTADOCTOR posted:

It's less of predicting things correctly and more making less incorrect predictions. Just my opinion but:

- first prediction: will Russia invad

- looking back at the first thread in cspam: thinking this war would be over in a couple of weeks by a total Russian steamrolling.Volksturm etc. Based on mostly wishful thinking somehow GBS were correct that Ukraine would drive Russia to a standstill.

- cspam predicting the sinking of the Moskva to be fake

- c spam predicting the Ukrainian counteroffensives to be ineffective, Kherson to never be recaptured. GBS were overly optimistic but closer to what eventually happened.

- Good predictions from GBS: return of penal battalions as fodder.

- This is going to get me in trouble:
But they correctly predicted the current Russian ammo shortage that Girkinn was posting about.

Weak premise, weak argument.

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

Chillgamesh posted:

To be fair about c-spam and the initial invasion it was less “they won’t invade” and more “they won’t invade because they’ll get royally hosed by the mud” which is what happened after they invaded

also that the invasion force wasn't big enough so it must be a feint! and welp.......

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Horseshoe theory posted:

No, given that the future hasn't been determined yet, OP.

Look at this guy that doesn't believe in the immortal science.

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IAMNOTADOCTOR
Sep 26, 2013

Cuttlefush posted:

how exactly do you verify a given prediction or current event? I mean, I know how. I'm just saying consider the veracity of any given source. And see how things shake out 20 years down the road.

Yeah I'm not trying to poo poo talk cspam or a specific poster. But posters here seem to weigh te events from the past 50 years more heavily in their predictions then im used to. Instead of focusing on the more recent news/ OSINT drama.

As an example: FF has to the best of my knowledge form reading his posts never read about a historical battle that he couldn't turn into a analogy for Ukraine.

It just has not lead to an substantially better track record in predicting the events of this past year.

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