Ukraine: The Aristoblyats

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McGavin: Sep 18, 2012

I think airshows should play Baby Elephant Walk during the elephant walk.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 00:36

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# ? Jun 7, 2024 05:19

MrYenko: Jun 18, 2012; #2 isn't ALWAYS bad...

McGavin posted:

I think airshows should play Baby Elephant Walk during the elephant walk.

Entry of the Gladiators.

:colbert:

# ? Mar 1, 2023 00:38

Madurai: Jun 26, 2012

The X-32 had the same wind-up toy plane energy the F4F Wildcat had.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 01:00

Flikken: Oct 23, 2009; 10,363 snaps and not a playoff win to show for it

Madurai posted:

The X-32 had the same wind-up toy plane energy the F4F Wildcat had.

Speaking of wind up toy F4F's

https://youtu.be/65qrzgbTTcQ

# ? Mar 1, 2023 01:09

zone: Dec 6, 2016

https://english.nv.ua/nation/weapons-from-1939-spotted-in-mariupol-mayor-advisor-says-50307384.html

quote:

Russian weapons dating back to 1939 have been spotted being placed around the Russian-occupied Ukrainian city of Mariupol, the city mayor's advisor Petro Andriushchenko wrote on Telegram on Feb. 28.

"The supply of weapons (artillery and anti-aircraft guns) dating back to 1939 has been observed. They are deploying around Mariupol en masse," he wrote.
Andriushchenko added that given the location of the weapons the occupiers hope to resist Ukrainian attacks with the help of extremely outdated weapons.

He also reported active movement of equipment along the Zaporizhzhia-Polohy-Mariupol highway towards Mariupol in the past day. At least ten tanks (one of them bearing the flag of Kazakhstan) and one large howitzer were spotted.

Also, an active movement of equipment was reported through the city of Mariupol towards the Black Sea coastline towns Manhush and Berdyansk.

The official said the occupiers continue to quarter large numbers of troops in Mariupol, using school facilities for this purpose.
He believes that the military personnel relocation in Mariupol is complete, with up to 10,000 or 15,000 Russian soldiers now in the city.

Andriushchenko reported several explosions in Mariupol on Feb. 23, while confirming that two Russian fuel depots were blown up earlier.

The same day, the Mariupol administration reported an occupiers' ammunition depot stuck near the sea port of the city.

Those recent long range strikes have certainly stirred up a big response, but with weapons that outdated, they'll be hard pressed to hold the ruined city.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 01:10

Cimber: Feb 3, 2014

I would imagine it would be relatively easy for Russia to conduct these larger scale offensives being so close to their supply lines and their borders. They may take a few towns but are paying a really heavy price for them.

My questions are:
1) Is this a sustainable activity for the Russians to keep up for the next few months in terms of beans and bullets?
2) How many losses are they incurring for every km of ground they take?
3) How bad are the Ukrainian losses in the same engagements?
4) Do Russians have much in the way of mobile reserves to capitalize on any breakthroughs?
5) Are they perhaps doing what the Ukrainians want? Bashing themselves against pretty decent defenses and opening themselves to strong counterattacks elsewhere along the line, such as when the tank infusion gets going?

Assuming #5 is true, I wonder if it would be a good idea to have a sudden drives to the Sea of Azov from say, Orikhiv, with a simultaneous strike against the bridges connecting Crimea to the Russian mainland? If that happens how would the Russians be able to supply any forces there?

# ? Mar 1, 2023 01:19

EasilyConfused: Nov 21, 2009; one strong toad

zone posted:

https://english.nv.ua/nation/weapons-from-1939-spotted-in-mariupol-mayor-advisor-says-50307384.html

Those recent long range strikes have certainly stirred up a big response, but with weapons that outdated, they'll be hard pressed to hold the ruined city.

It's a long way to Mariupol. I'm not sure I'd read much into sticking elderly weapons way behind the line.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 01:22

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

zone posted:

https://twitter.com/neilphauer/status/1630639482775977984

tfw someone completely doesn't get the point of a media blackout lol

# ? Mar 1, 2023 01:28

Computer viking: May 30, 2011; Now with less breakage.

Besides, didn't we just discuss how ancient machine guns (with new barrels) are perfectly useful?

# ? Mar 1, 2023 01:29

Tomn: Aug 23, 2007; And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

zone posted:

https://english.nv.ua/nation/weapons-from-1939-spotted-in-mariupol-mayor-advisor-says-50307384.html

Those recent long range strikes have certainly stirred up a big response, but with weapons that outdated, they'll be hard pressed to hold the ruined city.

Given how far Ukrainian troops are from Mariupol they'll probably hold just fine.

If they get closer the Russians will probably break out the good stuff.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 01:33

zone: Dec 6, 2016

Cimber posted:

I would imagine it would be relatively easy for Russia to conduct these larger scale offensives being so close to their supply lines and their borders. They may take a few towns but are paying a really heavy price for them.

My questions are:
1) Is this a sustainable activity for the Russians to keep up for the next few months in terms of beans and bullets?
2) How many losses are they incurring for every km of ground they take?
3) How bad are the Ukrainian losses in the same engagements?
4) Do Russians have much in the way of mobile reserves to capitalize on any breakthroughs?
5) Are they perhaps doing what the Ukrainians want? Bashing themselves against pretty decent defenses and opening themselves to strong counterattacks elsewhere along the line, such as when the tank infusion gets going?

Assuming #5 is true, I wonder if it would be a good idea to have a sudden drives to the Sea of Azov from say, Orikhiv, with a simultaneous strike against the bridges connecting Crimea to the Russian mainland? If that happens how would the Russians be able to supply any forces there?

I'd argue that for the moment they won't have any problems with at least small arms ammo, autocannon ammo, grenades, some variations of ATGM, and artillery shells, even despite the number of ammo dumps and supply caches that get knocked out on the daily at least on the Donbass front. However, and emphasis mine, all the information we have suggests that this can't be kept up with, for longer than six more months before supplies get even more poor quality or unusable or even more intermittent than they already are. Strelkov said that Russia can continue prosecuting the war effectively for 9-12 months more and that's basically it in terms of heavy weapons, armor, and artillery. The other voenkors are hopping mad about the drone strikes beyond the lines, the fact that Ukrainian logistics *still* functions more or less effectively, and that the sustained bombing campaign failed to yield permanent results.

We don't have a clear, if any, picture of the Ukrainian losses, beside the approximate western estimate of 100,000 casualties they took with approx 25-35k KIA. Western and independent sources claim 1:5 ratio for casualties in general, with no specific numbers for varying fronts. In general the Oryx list can be considered a good approximation of the damage either side took, but the talk of Ukraine having more tanks and IFVs than they began with has to be tempered by the very real reality of them lacking spare parts to make all of them operational, though this may be less of an issue now that their allies began supplying some.

In general Russia is very poor at maneuver warfare, and even more so at exploiting holes in the line. They haven't really caused a generalized collapse of defensive lines anywhere other than at Kherson at the beginning of the war, and that was because their men on the ground with the aid of traitors actually came through on that one occasion.

Currently any talk of an offensive in the Zaporizhzhia direction has to wait until at least after the spring mud. However, shaping operations (strikes aimed at C2, supply dumps and lines, and troop concentrations) will be conducted for as long as possible until the western heavy weapons arrive.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 01:36

McNally: Sep 13, 2007; Ask me about Proposition 305

Do you like muskets?

Computer viking posted:

Besides, didn't we just discuss how ancient machine guns (with new barrels) are perfectly useful?

That's assuming those old guns have had parts replaced, it's not just the barrels. The small parts need replacing too.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 01:37

Taerkar: Dec 7, 2002; kind of into it, really

"They will be fine if they've been properly maintained" is a pretty big IF these days, unless they were just extracted from vats of cosmoline(sp?)

# ? Mar 1, 2023 01:42

BobHoward: Feb 13, 2012; The only thing white people deserve is a bullet to their empty skull

Jonny Nox posted:

F-19 was the F-117 prior to declassification. Testors put out a model and Microprose put out a flight sim.

Oh, I know about the Testors model and the flight sim. But those were just speculation, nothing more than people wildly guessing at what might be true about the rumored "stealth fighter". F-19 was logically what you'd expect a secret fighter to be named, so the public ran with it.

But in reality, it was F-117 all along. They didn't change it just because they declassified - why would they?

# ? Mar 1, 2023 01:48

Computer viking: May 30, 2011; Now with less breakage.

McNally posted:

That's assuming those old guns have had parts replaced, it's not just the barrels. The small parts need replacing too.

Right, that makes sense. Still, it's not like a 1939 weapon necessarily must be a huge downgrade from anything modern - especially for a static defensive position. As long as we don't know what sort of weapons from 1939 they have dug up, it's not especially useful information.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 01:48

Taerkar: Dec 7, 2002; kind of into it, really

I had that F-19 model. I was not very good at putting it together.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 02:00

McNally: Sep 13, 2007; Ask me about Proposition 305

Do you like muskets?

Computer viking posted:

Right, that makes sense. Still, it's not like a 1939 weapon necessarily must be a huge downgrade from anything modern - especially for a static defensive position. As long as we don't know what sort of weapons from 1939 they have dug up, it's not especially useful information.

Unless the ammo hasn't been made since 1945 or something. There are tons of factors that make old weapons a huge issue beyond the condition of the weapons themselves.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 02:03

winnydpu: May 3, 2007; Sugartime Jones

BobHoward posted:

Oh, I know about the Testors model and the flight sim. But those were just speculation, nothing more than people wildly guessing at what might be true about the rumored "stealth fighter". F-19 was logically what you'd expect a secret fighter to be named, so the public ran with it.

But in reality, it was F-117 all along. They didn't change it just because they declassified - why would they?

Wasn't F-19 set aside as a reference for the Constant Peg program operating Soviet aircraft at groom lake? A quick google tells me I'm imagining this, but it sticks in my memory. Or was it one of the old century-series numbers?

# ? Mar 1, 2023 02:05

fartknocker: Oct 28, 2012; Damn it, this always happens. I think I'm gonna score, and then I never score. It's not fair.; Wedge Regret

winnydpu posted:

Wasn't F-19 set aside as a reference for the Constant Peg program operating Soviet aircraft at groom lake? A quick google tells me I'm imagining this, but it sticks in my memory. Or was it one of the old century-series numbers?

FWIW, Wikipedia says they were given old century numbers. The MiG-21 was YF-110, and the MiG-23 was YF-113.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 02:12

Nystral: Feb 6, 2002; Every man likes a pretty girl with him at a skeleton dance.

winnydpu posted:

Wasn't F-19 set aside as a reference for the Constant Peg program operating Soviet aircraft at groom lake? A quick google tells me I'm imagining this, but it sticks in my memory. Or was it one of the old century-series numbers?

Per this article apparently the test pilots couldn�t put down the code name for the project so used 117 whenever they need to fill out paperwork with a plane designation. Then someone printed the manuals with F-117 and it was determined that it was too much hassle or cost to reprint.

Of course it�s all unsourced rumor and scuttlebutt.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 02:13

EasilyConfused: Nov 21, 2009; one strong toad

Dunno who Andreas Parsch is, but according to his research, they skipped it for Northrup marketing reasons: http://www.designation-systems.net/usmilav/missing-mds.html

# ? Mar 1, 2023 02:17

That Works: Jul 22, 2006; Every revolution evaporates and leaves behind only the slime of a new bureaucracy

Taerkar posted:

I had that F-19 model. I was not very good at putting it together.

Same x2

# ? Mar 1, 2023 02:26

GD_American: Jul 21, 2004; LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY AS IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT!

BobHoward posted:

Along similar lines, General Dynamics proposed a navalized version of the F-16,

I love bringing people to the Naval Aviation Museum in Pensacola, because there's a giant bag of "wait, what the gently caress?" right outside the door.

(Look at the word on it between the canopy and tail fin)

# ? Mar 1, 2023 02:29

Karma Comedian: Feb 2, 2012

Maps!

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1630705236380622848?t=_kwX1yLeD4qd5HwdaH_UHw&s=19 https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1630705242374283267?t=F98hijIoSWb3wJihLDaeEA&s=19

# ? Mar 1, 2023 02:40

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

The UN OHCHR updated a report on civilian casualties in Ukraine.

https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/documents/press/hrmmu-civilian-casualties-24feb2022-15feb2023-en.pdf

Sometimes people make the argument that the invasion is justified or even righteous to stop civilian deaths. Math doesn't really play out that way and sometimes countries claiming to invade for good reasons are actually just engaging in dumb wars.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 02:48

psydude: Apr 1, 2008

That seems like it's off by at least a factor of 10.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 03:01

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Which year? In the case of 2022, read the note.

Unless you meant you think 2019 was super dangerous. Also note these are killed, not wounded.

OHCHR maintains standards of proof that almost always result in some level of undercounting. Helps avoid the accusation of fluffing or making up numbers.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 03:02

Taerkar: Dec 7, 2002; kind of into it, really

Yeah, you're not going to get anything close to the actual number for years, if ever.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 03:03

tiaz: Jul 1, 2004; PICK UP THAT PRESENT.

Zelensky's Zealots

Taerkar posted:

"They will be fine if they've been properly maintained" is a pretty big IF these days, unless they were just extracted from vats of cosmoline(sp?)

Having "enjoyed" the experience of restoring a cosmolined firearm to service, I am highly dubious of the people doing an utterly crap job at maintenance doing an acceptable job getting all the cosmoline out.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 03:07

Tomn: Aug 23, 2007; And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

Yeah, the report does specify that "actual number of casualties are considerably higher" - they're apparently only counting those they've managed to verify, and there's quite a few areas they've not been able to do so including large swathes of the frontline and notably, Mariupol, which yeah I suspect the Russians aren't exactly letting UN human rights inspectors get an accurate count down there. That number from the specific image also only lists killed - there's a fair bit more injured as well.

Edit: It should really come as no surprise that civilian casualties from explosives are higher in territories controlled by Ukraine at the time than in territories controlled by Russia by a factor of five or so.

Tomn fucked around with this message at 03:18 on Mar 1, 2023

# ? Mar 1, 2023 03:11

Pine Cone Jones: Dec 6, 2009; You throw me the acorn, I throw you the whip!

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1630757251127418882?t=AZq1kKMHmpxVAqjJqXc-fw&s=19

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1630757256898772994?t=fPamZf2_YUSt7gTqMhxkjQ&s=19

Man, I dunno. I'm not sure that this decision would be made without good input from international intelligence sources.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 04:00

bulletsponge13: Apr 28, 2010

Russians want a meat grinder. They are getting one.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 04:08

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Pine Cone Jones posted:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1630757251127418882?t=AZq1kKMHmpxVAqjJqXc-fw&s=19

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1630757256898772994?t=fPamZf2_YUSt7gTqMhxkjQ&s=19

Man, I dunno. I'm not sure that this decision would be made without good input from international intelligence sources.

Thus far, Ukrainians have shown themselves to be neither rash nor stupid. It is likely they have a good reason for it.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 04:16

Icon Of Sin: Dec 26, 2008

Deteriorata posted:

Thus far, Ukrainians have shown themselves to be neither rash nor stupid. It is likely they have a good reason for it.

Possibly something with the Bradley Bn that just arrived recently?

# ? Mar 1, 2023 04:18

Pine Cone Jones: Dec 6, 2009; You throw me the acorn, I throw you the whip!

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1630768108611813376?t=v79UHaS6gF6nSSKOpbdwhQ&s=19

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1630768113561088003?t=U_JSGj6oC726aO_90vPXmw&s=19

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1630768115448512512?t=4xZa3KK0-JCAtLUYh0iiDA&s=19

# ? Mar 1, 2023 04:18

ishikabibble: Jan 21, 2012

GD_American posted:

I love bringing people to the Naval Aviation Museum in Pensacola, because there's a giant bag of "wait, what the gently caress?" right outside the door.

(Look at the word on it between the canopy and tail fin)

I'd like to see that landing gear survive some cats and traps. Even one would be impressive :laugh: