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I am pretty sure Ukraine got enough out of that city. Consider the massive resources and personell that Russia lost trying to take that single city. Not to mention the fight for that city seems to have increased infighting in Russia‘s forces (Wagner vs Mobiks etc.).
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Mar 2, 2023 09:09
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Yes. Thanks that's a really interesting map/article. I also assumed that south to cut off the land bridge would be more interesting for Ukraine than pushing the Russians back in the east. But obviously, the Russians are prepared for that. I wonder if Ukraine if waiting for Russia to make a first move and engaging everything they have in the east to only then open up a front in the south? But they probably don't have the resources to block a massive Russian attack in the east AND go on the offensive in the south?
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Mar 2, 2023 10:38
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Russian media report that a group of 50 Ukrainian soldiers allegedly captured a tiny border village in Bryansk oblast. https://tass.com/emergencies/1583687 There are also unverified photos in Ukrainian tg channels implying the soldiers encountered no resistance and are chilling in the local cultural centre building, but I think those were first intended to be trolling and later were uncritically reposted by people. No official statement by Ukraine yet. No idea how 50 people in Ukrainian uniforms with weapons could so easily cross into a region that's supposed to be on high terrorism threat level.
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Mar 2, 2023 11:05
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It's a very long border, you can't line it with tanks and troops at every point. Generally you secure as many of the choke points and key locations that you can, then have mobile reserves away from the border who can reinforce / counterattack as needed So the "how" is probably very simple - I assume they just drove/walked there. I imagine Russia is also undermanning the border with Russia proper because they know that Western support will dry up overnight if Ukraine actually tries to conquer and hold territory that isn't Ukrainian The "why" though is a bit odd (assuming it's true)
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Mar 2, 2023 11:19
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It would be a pretty big thing if true, and it would be really weird for them just to be chilling in the middle of town. As none of it it make any sense really I would say best to just ignore it until any actual firm proof comes through.
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Mar 2, 2023 11:23
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I deleted a post
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Mar 2, 2023 11:30
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Paladinus posted:Russian media report that a group of 50 Ukrainian soldiers allegedly captured a tiny border village in Bryansk oblast. https://twitter.com/etokotik/status/1631238180040056832?t=rzdEx8-b62YJWWDy-SDJIw&s=19 Russian Volunteer Corps (non-loyalist russian neonazis in exile) are claiming that it is them, likely trolling but who the gently caress knows
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Mar 2, 2023 11:39
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Just saw that video, too. Couldn't find any photos of the building to confirm they are actually there. A lot conflicting reports in Russia media about an attack on a school bus with one girl dead, or maybe she's alive, and it wasn't a bus but a car, and it was actually a boy who was shot, and maybe none of it happened and there is only a hostage situation, or maybe one of the people who was reported to be taken hostage is actually home in the neighbouring village. If it's psyops, it's super effective.
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Mar 2, 2023 11:48
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Maybe they were out looking for a hot drink and got lost. Not the first time soldiers have gotten lost. Bit of an awkward historical footnote that the first exchange in the FIRST UKRAINE INVASION OF RUSSIA is about EU5.47 for coffee at the local cafe. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 2, 2023 12:04
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That looks like cosplayers or something.
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Mar 2, 2023 12:14
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fatherboxx posted:https://twitter.com/etokotik/status/1631238180040056832?t=rzdEx8-b62YJWWDy-SDJIw&s=19 https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1631255410949734400 allegedly they already returned to Ukraine
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Mar 2, 2023 13:06
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I'm an idiot so can someone please explain why Russian volunteers entering Russia is somehow Ukraine entering Russia. Yes I have read the above posts.
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Mar 2, 2023 14:05
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They are volunteers in the Ukraine military
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Mar 2, 2023 14:14
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Lampsacus posted:I'm an idiot so can someone please explain why Russian volunteers entering Russia is somehow Ukraine entering Russia. Yes I have read the above posts. Seems like they're claiming they did it (as a joke? I mean if it was a false flag than um why are they admitting it now?) and seems if it was them they had a Ukrainian flag and what not, stuff that it wouldn't of been hard for them to get but would of made others think they were some sort of Ukraine forces. ...it makes no sense, but I mean other possibilities don't make much sense either so  .
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Mar 2, 2023 14:16
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Lampsacus posted:I'm an idiot so can someone please explain why Russian volunteers entering Russia is somehow Ukraine entering Russia. Yes I have read the above posts. Their leader has been living in Ukraine since 2017 and the formation is, by its admission, fights in the war (but in reality are more of Tiktok forces, unlike Georgian and Ichkeria-Chechen volunteers under AFU command that actually see combat). Russian neonazis had a massive split in 2014 with some adapting to work under Russian state using them to fight in Ukraine and other, more in line with pro-Europe views and focused on racial purity rather than empire-building, leaving to fight on the side of Ukraine. My guess is Ukrainian intelligence using them as deniable assets that can do stunts like this as "Russian freedom fighters"
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Mar 2, 2023 14:16
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If this isn't just volunteers being idiots on their own initiative, this being a deniable probe by Ukraine to test Russia's tolerance for further strikes within Russian borders, and possibly to force them to shift forces up north, seems like the most sensible explanation.
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Mar 2, 2023 14:22
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I think the simplest explanation is the most likely: a group of stupid young men doing stupid young men things. You have a bunch of 20-somethings in a quiet sector not really under direct military control but it's a quiet sector. Then somebody gets the bright idea to infiltrate into Russia, they do it without much fuss because infiltrating 50 people through a long border without a lot of active fighting isn't too hard, but then they get to their objective and go, "So now what?" It's kind of like a dog catching a car. So they're in Russia, take some selfies, and the Rosgvardiya shows up. Now you've got a running gun battle as the group of stupid young men realize that maybe they should have told somebody where they were going. There have been several accounts of individuals and small groups in the Foreign Legion doing similar partially-planned operations like crossing rivers to see if Russians are actually on the other side. It wouldn't surprise me at all if a bunch of Ukrainian intelligence officers have spent the past several hours saying, "What the f---...".
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Mar 2, 2023 15:11
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Slashrat posted:If this isn't just volunteers being idiots on their own initiative, this being a deniable probe by Ukraine to test Russia's tolerance for further strikes within Russian borders, and possibly to force them to shift forces up north, seems like the most sensible explanation. A few idiots rambling across to take some selfies does not have any vibes of a probe for testing tolerance of strikes on Russian ground. It's 100% the former.
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Mar 2, 2023 15:23
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It's a bit more complicated then it first appears, certainly unlikely to be a Russian false flag: https://twitter.com/ColborneMichael/status/1631290707255218177 https://twitter.com/ColborneMichael/status/1631290711147413504 https://twitter.com/ColborneMichael/status/1631290715866030081 https://twitter.com/ColborneMichael/status/1631290720609771525 https://twitter.com/ColborneMichael/status/1631290725257080834
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Mar 2, 2023 15:27
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Do you have anything to add to his train of thought, given your expected knowledge here? He doesn't present any reasoning for that extraordinary claim of Ukraine's military intelligence "signing off" on this little adventure, and without it it sounds completely ridiculous.
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Mar 2, 2023 15:34
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Belarusians posted a video of their drone teabagging a Russian radar plane https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/1631301890624331778?t=89Z-s4yinK9hRGPtAaOLpg&s=19
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Mar 2, 2023 15:37
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Fidelitious posted:Do you have anything to add to his train of thought, given your expected knowledge here? https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1631300350832517126?t=uqgIbM5i6fZot0C8xmxFtA&s=19
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Mar 2, 2023 15:40
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Brown Moses posted:Ukrainian military intelligence isn't exactly distancing themselves from it: I guess (or at least hope) someone is going to get a stern phonecall soon. Not only is this kind of stunt probably a gross violation of the rules of engagement, it's really dumb from a PR standpoint. The very last thing Ukraine wants to do is lend credence to the Kremlin narrative that the motherland and its people are under attack.
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Mar 2, 2023 16:02
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It also doesn't look great when Ukrainian military intelligence say their an independent formation, but only a month ago they were publishing Telegram videos with HIMARS https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1631311409173626881?t=RTiccMH4Q7FaKuzXGlum7g&s=19
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Mar 2, 2023 16:16
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:I guess (or at least hope) someone is going to get a stern phonecall soon. Not only is this kind of stunt probably a gross violation of the rules of engagement, it's really dumb from a PR standpoint. The very last thing Ukraine wants to do is lend credence to the Kremlin narrative that the motherland and its people are under attack. Alternatively, Russian people might recognise that this was a stunt by a small group, and instead focus on Putin's inability to exercise control over Russian territory
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Mar 2, 2023 16:17
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Fidelitious posted:Do you have anything to add to his train of thought, given your expected knowledge here? RDK are officially part of UAF*, and because they are Russians, they are not really trusted with a lot of military action. They are mostly used for propaganda in hopes to get other Russian far-right elements on Ukraine's side and cause some unrest in Russia (probably not worth it, and also not effective). It's unlikely that they could leave their quarters with weapons and cross the border without anyone in Ukraine signing off on that. On the other hand, it's also hard to imagine that nobody in Russia noticed their crossing, but it seems to be the case. E: *I guess UAF command have some other ideas about it, but it's kind of shady on their part. E2: Thinking about it a bit more, the 'independent formation' comment was probably a joke meant to echo Putin's coy comments during the 2014 invasion, when he said it was just soldiers on vacation or people who bought uniforms at a local military surplus store. It looks like all previously 'independent' formations were folded into UAF a long time ago. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 16:32 on Mar 2, 2023 |
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Mar 2, 2023 16:19
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Or, you know, we can stop treating things with double-standards: the moment Russian troops invaded, Ukrainian troops got the right to operate in Russian territory.
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Mar 2, 2023 16:24
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Brown Moses posted:It also doesn't look great when Ukrainian military intelligence say their an independent formation, but only a month ago they were publishing Telegram videos with HIMARS Unless I'm missing something it looks like they got a photo op with a single HIMARS, it doesn't look like they were trusted to operate one as the tweet suggests?
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Mar 2, 2023 16:26
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OddObserver posted:Or, you know, we can stop treating things with double-standards: the moment Russian troops invaded, Ukrainian troops got the right to operate in Russian territory. It doesn't matter if it's ethical or fair or whatever. It achieves nothing and can be used as propaganda (loving nazis attacking the motherland).
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Mar 2, 2023 16:31
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IMO, letting certified far-right Nazis invade Russia as a treat might be *points at username* and not worth whatever intel they got. I'd imagine whatever intel they get from the west could easily have done the same thing.
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Mar 2, 2023 16:34
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How is Russian propaganda covering the "invasion"? Is it covering it?
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Mar 2, 2023 16:39
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Discendo Vox posted:How is Russian propaganda covering the "invasion"? Is it covering it? It was an unprecedented terroristic act according to Putin, and that sentiment is echoed by all main propagandists. Some questions are raised about how it could happen, but mostly they talk about retaliation. Kadyrov's already called for detaining families of everyone involved and also for more missile strikes, and I quote, 'on all objects directly or indirectly tied to the attack. And we shouldn't even worry about civilian objects nearby. If the enemy treats defenceless people like this, we shouldn't be polite either. From now on, it's a war without rules that the satanic Ukrainian regime started'.
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Mar 2, 2023 16:44
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So business as usual for them in other words.
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Mar 2, 2023 16:47
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As opposed to what Russia is doing already??? Just get them to blow some bridge’s and railway lines next time and you’d be calling them all heroes.
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Mar 2, 2023 16:48
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Ukraine has been operating small units inside Russia for most of the war. They’ve been blowing poo poo up and gathering intel the entire time. Any red lines that exist likely look more like don’t take a tank brigade and charge Moscow, or indiscriminately shell border towns. KingColliwog posted:It doesn't matter if it's ethical or fair or whatever. It achieves nothing and can be used as propaganda (loving nazis attacking the motherland). Well, it would suck if Russia started making propaganda like that.
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Mar 2, 2023 16:48
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Paladinus posted:RDK are officially part of UAF*, and because they are Russians, they are not really trusted with a lot of military action. They are mostly used for propaganda in hopes to get other Russian far-right elements on Ukraine's side and cause some unrest in Russia (probably not worth it, and also not effective). It's unlikely that they could leave their quarters with weapons and cross the border without anyone in Ukraine signing off on that. On the other hand, it's also hard to imagine that nobody in Russia noticed their crossing, but it seems to be the case. I am strongly reminded of the Russian Liberation Army but even shittier.
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Mar 2, 2023 16:51
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KingColliwog posted:It doesn't matter if it's ethical or fair or whatever. It achieves nothing and can be used as propaganda (loving nazis attacking the motherland). This is factually wrong. Well, just sending a tiny troop over for propaganda purposes, that's just silly if it's not at the same time recon in preparation for a larger operation, I agree with you there. I'm just disagreeing with your more general assumption that all border incursions from Ukrainian forces are useless. But if Russia is actively leaving an entire front line uncovered because of some abstract idea of "the rebellious Russian province of Ukraine" not being allowed to strike back when invaded, that's an open invitation to come in and wreck supply lines, empty out supply depots for their own usage, even set up AA emplacements and defensive lines to interrupt Russian troop movements when there actually isn't any resistance. There is a lot a sudden counter-strike like this could achieve! Not saying that's even close to the truth, I'm just going from a worst-case scenario here. But of course the Russian Army knows this, too and stunts like this, if taken seriously, will lead to Russian soldiers having to be reshuffled away from actual fronts to stand around doing nothing, which is another legitimate military goal. My guess is, either probes like this will continue until exploding supply depots will force Russia to divert troops for border defense, or they will suddenly stop when Russia eventually decides posting a couple hundred conscripts in uniforms makes more sense than doing nothing.
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Mar 2, 2023 16:52
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Paladinus posted:It was an unprecedented terroristic act according to Putin, and that sentiment is echoed by all main propagandists. Some questions are raised about how it could happen, but mostly they talk about retaliation. Kadyrov's already called for detaining families of everyone involved and also for more missile strikes, and I quote, 'on all objects directly or indirectly tied to the attack. And we shouldn't even worry about civilian objects nearby. If the enemy treats defenceless people like this, we shouldn't be polite either. From now on, it's a war without rules that the satanic Ukrainian regime started'. NOW the gloves are off!!! Really though, give it a week and people have forgotten everything about it.
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Mar 2, 2023 16:53
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Discendo Vox posted:How is Russian propaganda covering the "invasion"? Is it covering it? News agencies are covering it, but their written messaging is not particularly remarkable. Not remarkable in that it's quite reminiscent of post-Chechen war “counterterrorism operation” pressers, which every Russian adult has seen hundreds of times.
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Mar 2, 2023 16:54
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Ukraine has raided Russia proper with nap of the earth helicopter raids already. Russian territory is off limits besides western hand wringing around weapons systems.
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Mar 2, 2023 16:55
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