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pmchem posted:anyone care to post opinions on holding junk bond funds (e.g. HYG, JNK, FALN, ANGL) the next 6-12 months? I dunno. Well, here are the fun facts about junk bond fund HYG:  And a government and investment grade fund with similar duration, GVI:  Seems reasonable I guess. You wouldn't want either if inflation picks up again, although it'd be worth poking around the junk fund to see what it actually holds (if it's mostly energy it might be better than it looks). Curious what you're going for though!
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Mar 1, 2023 01:49
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I feel like I understand what "option" means at an intermediate level, and also "spread," but I'm not sure about "option adjusted spread" and I'm curious why HYG's is 11 times larger than GVI? Maybe also someone can explain "convexity"
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Mar 1, 2023 02:15
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I feel like treasuries are currently paying very nice yields and the prospect for marginally additional yields you get from junk bonds do not outweigh their high level of increased risk currently.
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Mar 1, 2023 03:37
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Leperflesh posted:I feel like I understand what "option" means at an intermediate level, and also "spread," but I'm not sure about "option adjusted spread" and I'm curious why HYG's is 11 times larger than GVI? Investopedia has pretty good articles on these, but a lot of securities have embedded options which can't be separate from the underlying security, like a call option where the issuer has the right to call the security and purchase it (built in to the issuance of the security, not purchased on the market as a vanilla option), or a conversion option where a bond holder has the right to convert the bond to shares under certain conditions. The first one makes the security less attractive since if the upside would be too much for the purchaser, the issuer would exercise the option. The latter favors the holder, it lets them get a guaranteed minimum return but if the company which issued the convertible bond is doing well, they can grab that upside. An option adjusted spread attempts to adjust the value of the security to value this underlying "embedded" option (which can't be separated from the security itself, like a call or put normally can). Convexity has to do with "bond duration" which is actually a measure of it's sensitivity to interest rate changes. It's a confusing term, and has nothing to do with term or time to maturity. It's basically like price sensitivity to demand, if you're familiar with the concept from economics - a more "convex" bond has a higher "duration" which means its value will fluctuate more as interest rate changes take place; convexity is used because it's a non-linear measure. To be slightly more technical and more accurate, the convexity is essentially a function of the bond's price in relationship to interest rate and the duration would be the derivative at the given f(x).
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Mar 1, 2023 04:21
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Leperflesh posted:I feel like I understand what "option" means at an intermediate level, and also "spread," but I'm not sure about "option adjusted spread" and I'm curious why HYG's is 11 times larger than GVI? Spread is basically the bond yield minus treasury yield, and by options they mean embedded options like embedded calls. Junk bonds have higher spread because they are more likely to default, and thus have a risk premium on their yields. The option adjusted spread means they run an algorithm that I don't understand that takes into account the increase or decrease in value due to those embedded options. For example, a callable bond might have a 6% yield versus a non-callable bond with a 5% yield - but they adjust that 6% downward by their model based on the probability that it gets called early and it results in a lower yield. Convexity (Math alert): the relationship between interest rates and bond price isn't linear. The commonly used measure called Duration is the linear approximation of the impact of interest rates on value (basically the first derivative of price wrt yield). Convexity is the linear approximation of the impact of interest rates on Duration (basically the second derivative of price wrt yield). Higher positive convexity is better, as this means that it is less sensitive to large increases in yields (price drops) and more sensitive to large decreases in yields (price increases). pmchem posted:anyone care to post opinions on holding junk bond funds (e.g. HYG, JNK, FALN, ANGL) the next 6-12 months? The spreads right now are really narrow for some reason? I don't really get it.
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Mar 1, 2023 04:25
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If you want more risk, why not buy more equity? Buying bonds with the volatility of a stock seems like the worst of both worlds. Especially when it only yields a few percent more than an equivalent investment grade corp.
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Mar 1, 2023 04:50
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Agronox posted:Curious what you're going for though! well, here's what I was pondering yesterday. We all know that bonds and stock returns have been correlated the past year or two, and that the stock market is somewhat interest-rate sensitive. So I decided to do some research regarding whether anyone had calculated an effective duration for the equity market recently. the short version is: yes, and depending on assumptions it's 20-30 years. as part of that I was also looking at correlations between various bond funds and the S&P over a few windows (14, 18, 26 months). unsurprisingly, there's a decent correlation with long-term corporate bonds funds such as LQD or VCLT, supporting the 20+ year equity market duration analysis. but, it's also well known that junk bond funds are more 'equity-like' than treasury-like. they tend to rally with stocks and sell off in recessions / stock market crashes, kinda the opposite of treasuries. it turns out that their correlation (HYG or FALN to SPY) has been ever higher over those recent windows -- up to 0.9 over the last year or so! https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com...ys=60&months=36 (will get different correlation #s if you choose different windows but trend remains) one could make an argument that if you're invested in equity indexes right now, it's quite similar to being invested in junk bond funds (granted, different beta). so I kinda wanted to take the temperature of people regarding junk bond funds. responses from drk or haze weren't too supportive of it. in fact, nobody really stepped up to support investing in junk bonds. but in general I'm guessing a lot of people here are very much long the stock market, even perhaps just talking about "trading" positions. just an interesting additional way to reflect and think about the stock market; ask yourself how you feel about junk bonds.
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Mar 1, 2023 15:34
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oh wow, odd lots (the podcast) just made a discord https://twitter.com/tracyalloway/status/1630944009710448642?s=20 they have an #economy channel, of course, but I also just got them to make a #memes channel godspeed, goons
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Mar 1, 2023 16:17
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My gut level read is that there is a lot of a overlap, but stocks prosper if lower absolute interest rates (less competition from fixed income) while junk bond indexes like decreasing relative interest rates (held bonds revalue higher relative to new bonds). The near zero interest rate + heavy QE environment post 2008 probably did some very strange things to the bond market that might shake out in very strange ways. Between failure risk, inflation risk and changing interest rates junk bonds have a lot of moving parts.
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Mar 1, 2023 16:33
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there now are ETFs to bet against (or with) Jim Cramer https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1631288762083819526?s=20
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Mar 2, 2023 15:18
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Finally, an ETF I feel comfortable putting all of my money in. Im gonna be rich!
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Mar 2, 2023 19:17
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pmchem posted:there now are ETFs to bet against (or with) Jim Cramer loving bravo to that firm, a low risk scenario where they're balanced on both sides of every trade while soaking up 1.47% ER off the top every year
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Mar 2, 2023 19:54
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$PBR Brasil's big oil company baffles me. Another huge quarter's earnings, dividend announced at nearly 10% yield for just the quarter. Yet stock keeps trading around a P/E of 2.2. I know the government changed from Bolso to Lula, but is the market really pricing in that much worry that he'll nationalize the whole company?
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Mar 2, 2023 21:15
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Hoo baby, a lot of Commercial Real Estate companies waited until 1:01 PST to send out some harsh news today I wouldn't want to be me right now!!
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Mar 2, 2023 22:10
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I think Petrobras declared that dividend based off of previous production. But also said it would be drastically cut in the future as the company tries to undergo a transformation to more renewables.
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Mar 2, 2023 22:21
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Hoo baby, a lot of Commercial Real Estate companies waited until 1:01 PST to send out some harsh news today Is the news "Oh wow hehe uh turns out this poo poo is harder than it looks when money isn't free"?
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Mar 2, 2023 22:23
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Has anyone else had issues with Fidelity's Active Trader since they moved to the 64-bit version? I get pretty consistent crashes during market open/close when the extended hour prices toggle, as well as occasional random crashes. The platform has been ok, in general, but I'm leaning towards switching to a different brokerage for my little fun money account. I read the OP, but wouldn't mind if anyone had a recommendation for my relatively simple needs:
Thank you!
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Mar 2, 2023 22:53
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If you're willing to configure it ThinkorSwim's UI is what you make it and highly customizable and powerful.
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Mar 3, 2023 00:26
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I adore ThinkOrSwim - I use a small fraction of it's features as I do relatively simple things, but the software is a model for what I feel modern software should be: Feature rich, purpose driven, built for people who care and endlessly customizable. It's some of my favorite software on the planet.
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Mar 3, 2023 00:29
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I am withholding all ToS compliments until they release a mobile client 
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Mar 3, 2023 00:54
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FistEnergy posted:I am withholding all ToS compliments until they release a mobile client reporting obvious troll to the mods!!! I really like TOS, both desktop and iOS
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Mar 3, 2023 01:16
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e. actually there is a think or swim mobile app https://www.tdameritrade.com/tools-and-platforms/thinkorswim/mobile-app.html Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 01:23 on Mar 3, 2023 |
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Mar 3, 2023 01:20
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Thank you all so much for the feedback - I sincerely appreciate it! In the absence of any responses I was going to try TOS based on the positive comments I’d seen in this thread over the years - nice to see that inclination confirmed.  Thanks again!
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Mar 3, 2023 02:52
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Leperflesh posted:e. actually there is a think or swim mobile app toilet traders rejoice 
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Mar 3, 2023 02:56
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In contrast to ToS desktop, I cannot *imagine* trying to get anything done on a phone...
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Mar 3, 2023 20:35
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You make one profitable trade while taking a dump and you get hooked.
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Mar 3, 2023 20:42
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all the giant loss screenshots on wallstreetbets are on phone apps, makes u think
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Mar 3, 2023 20:52
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I know a BFC discord user that _only_ uses the mobile interface of TOS and I'm impressed because he has tons of positions on every day. I much prefer the desktop interface but the mobile is very usable by demanding traders.
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Mar 3, 2023 22:59
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Last time I checked it wasn't really possible to run scans on ToS mobile, has that changed? Or it was somethibg like you could run scans that you've already setup on the desktop app or whatever
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Mar 3, 2023 23:16
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Picked up 100 shares of Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) today @$93.58. Fumbles its AI demo and the stock tumbles in a panic. Nice discount. People bragging about Microsoft making around $12 billion in search advertising last year and being impressed. Except that Google made $200 billion and I don't see people dropping Chrome and using Bing. And when the economy crashes, and people cancel their streaming services, they'll just stick to youtube. "Bing will make Google come out and dance, and I want people to know that we made them dance." -Satya Nadella CEO of Microsoft. Uh huh, sure did. I'll just leave this here... 
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Mar 4, 2023 02:57
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Thanks again to everyone who recommended ToS! I opened an account today and got set up on the desktop and mobile apps. They are both very slick and I am looking forward to exploring them further. One question I couldn’t find a clear answer on is how to see your settled cash balance. Would that technically be ‘Cash Available for Withdrawal’? It was simply called ‘Settled Cash’ at Fidelity. Would like to avoid good faith violations. DeadFatDuckFat posted:Last time I checked it wasn't really possible to run scans on ToS mobile, has that changed? Or it was somethibg like you could run scans that you've already setup on the desktop app or whatever From what I have seen in my limited experience today it appears to be the latter. Fireside Nut fucked around with this message at 03:31 on Mar 4, 2023 |
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Mar 4, 2023 03:28
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Fireside Nut posted:Would that technically be ‘Cash Available for Withdrawal’? Yes. If you're super worried about GFV, you could just apply for margin and not use it.
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Mar 4, 2023 17:17
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Not sure about ToS but on E-Trade, cash available for withdrawal includes margin-- so if that's different from settled cash I'd double check your account balances.
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Mar 4, 2023 20:03
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If they have a margin account they don't need to worry about GFVs. Just keep your Cash and Sweep in ToS positive and you won't pay interest.
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Mar 4, 2023 20:33
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Girbot posted:Yes. Thank you! I've never had a problem with GFVs - just prefer to keep it simple with a cash account.
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Mar 6, 2023 15:41
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Canine Blues Arooo posted:I adore ThinkOrSwim - I use a small fraction of it's features as I do relatively simple things, but the software is a model for what I feel modern software should be: Feature rich, purpose driven, built for people who care and endlessly customizable. It's some of my favorite software on the planet. TOS desktop love baffles me. It runs like complete rear end, has unintuitive UX, and my chart settings constantly don’t get preserved. I would kill for volume profiles even half as good as tradingview (whose vp are… okay I guess ). Tradingview for charting + order entry via tos mobile just seems so much easier. Even the position monitoring seems highly inferior to either web or iPad running tos mobile. I have a laptop sitting next to me running tos desktop while trading and I often wonder why it’s even open. Are you trying to scalp 2-3 points on eminis or something? Seems like basically anything else (sierra, jigsaw, even TV) would be better to use for daytrading.
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Mar 7, 2023 07:38
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Leperflesh posted:and also was still up for the day even at the last tick shown on that chart 👁️👄👁️
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Mar 9, 2023 21:53
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My SPY 400 Puts for mid April now +50% (SPY closed at ~392 today). Do I take the profits now or get greedy and hold hoping for further blood in the market.
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Mar 9, 2023 23:52
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Id wait to see how the market reacts to Bidens proposed capital gains tax increase first. If that triggers a tantrum there will be a lot more blood.
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Mar 10, 2023 00:50
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Long term is 20%, how high do they want to raise it
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Mar 10, 2023 01:04
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