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Potrzebie posted:It's very bad at measuring post covid and all other things not excess mortality. It's very good at measuring what it does. My post was a follow up to the idea in 2020 that Sweden had the worst covid policy and Tegnell was causing so much excess death that lockdown could have saved, just look at all the rest of Europe! comparing it over time, consider what splitsoul said SplitSoul posted:We're currently at 8,284 dead "from/with COVID" officially, the vast majority of them after we went Full Tegnell last year. if this is also true of other european countries then the doing a victory lap over not trying at all instead of trying but failing is kinda dumb
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Mar 6, 2023 17:43
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Much like least amount of corruption, still not something worth partying over. Still was bad!
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Mar 6, 2023 17:44
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Is it more or less valid than these estimates? https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates quote:Although the official number of deaths caused by covid-19 is now 6.9m, our single best estimate is that the actual toll is 20.5m people. We find that there is a 95% chance that the true value lies between 16.5m and 27.2m additional deaths.
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Mar 6, 2023 17:47
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Potrzebie posted:It's very bad at measuring post covid and all other things not excess mortality. It's very good at measuring what it does. My post was a follow up to the idea in 2020 that Sweden had the worst covid policy and Tegnell was causing so much excess death that lockdown could have saved, just look at all the rest of Europe! Who's that point-something-or-other? Sure excess mortality is one factor in terms Swedens COVID policy, but my point is that it's not the only thing that's important, and that the differences in Swedens policy can have had a different effect on things like post-COVID side-effects - I don't know though, and neither do you. A paper with a systemic review on the randomized controlled trials for each of the the various post-COVID side-effects areas (there's four subgroups, if memory serves) and their co-morbidities published in journals with a large impact factor for the field in which the journal is published - or at least, that as a starting point. EDIT: If it was me quoting statistics, I'd probably also use a bit more of a usable source than some news article that's quoting some statistics that apparently aren't easily replicated? At least I'm having trouble finding the numbers since they don't seem to be published by SCB. BlankSystemDaemon fucked around with this message at 17:56 on Mar 6, 2023 |
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Mar 6, 2023 17:47
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BlankSystemDaemon posted:Just quoting statistics themselves is fraught with problems; My favorite example being, how many people are in the average family unit? 4.something-or-other. Dude... Read the last page. The SCB data was commissioned by SvD. And please do stop misrepresenting my position. I was quoting myself from 2020 when it was all about excess mortality. And now the data shows that Sweden was least-bad in Europe in that regard.
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Mar 6, 2023 18:34
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TheFluff posted:I'm not going to go call people out for things they posted in the heat of the moment three years ago, but there were definitely people ITT who were like "10-20% of the population will die with your current policy response" (based on some WHO predictions) and basically calling for extremely harsh lockdowns and Tegnell's head on a platter. Anyway, the excess death number vs. the official death toll makes me think Sweden was just a lot more effective at killing off old people who were "gonna die anyway", while Denmark's notoriously lovely cardio-vascular health killed off a bunch of people who'd otherwise have died over a longer period of time.
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Mar 6, 2023 18:38
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i don't think it's a stretch to say that some people were freaking out about the mountains of corpses etc sure to result from the swedish policy beyond what seems from these data to be justified. it's unclear to me what we can learn from this more broadly, though.
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Mar 6, 2023 19:05
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Potrzebie posted:Dude... Read the last page. The SCB data was commissioned by SvD. again, how did excess mortality change over time if the other european countries had major spikes and passed sweden after they opened up then it shows that probably had more to do with other factors the conclusion should be 'opening up/keeping open during a pademic kills a ton of people' and 'we need better ways to combat a pandemic instead of just relying on vaccines to solve it' ...or so i would like to say but i dont think our ruling class has the will or even imagination to do what would be required, and america is even worse
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Mar 6, 2023 19:21
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V. Illych L. posted:i don't think it's a stretch to say that some people were freaking out about the mountains of corpses etc sure to result from the swedish policy beyond what seems from these data to be justified. it's unclear to me what we can learn from this more broadly, though. Also, where does that 9k deaths figure come from? OWD says 23k
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Mar 6, 2023 19:37
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Megamissen posted:again, how did excess mortality change over time  Sorry, but I can not make sense of this formatting. Edit: evil_bunnY posted:Also, where does that 9k deaths figure come from? OWD says 23k Socialstyrelsen has 18.880 deaths from covid (but not dead from other factors while having covid) up until 28/2 2023. Potrzebie fucked around with this message at 19:51 on Mar 6, 2023 |
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Mar 6, 2023 19:46
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V. Illych L. posted:i don't think it's a stretch to say that some people were freaking out about the mountains of corpses etc sure to result from the swedish policy beyond what seems from these data to be justified. it's unclear to me what we can learn from this more broadly, though. my takeaways are, generally speaking, that people ascribed way too much agency to FHM (or the efficacy of policy response in general), and that people freak out way too much about numbers in general. the second one is basically just what I already think in general, people always want numbers for everything these days but getting good numbers that actually mean something is very difficult and if you start trying to make the numbers move in some way they usually stop being meaningful (this is also what new public management is all about and part of the reason why it's bad). "data driven" is snake oil.
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Mar 6, 2023 20:23
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Potrzebie posted:
im very bad at converting my thoughts into sentences so ill try again what i have an issue with is using total excess deaths in [european] countries to evaluate the initial policies those countries the reason this is bad is that every country at some point adopted the swedish policy lets say a country that initally did lock downs had a much lower amount of excess deaths than sweden, but had a major spike in deaths after adopting the swedish policy and ended up having more in the end this would tell you that sweden having fewer total excess deaths probably did not have a lot to do with the inital swedish policy response and more to do with other factors (general quality of health care, living situation of old people, etc) just looking at total excess deaths you have no way of knowing if something like this happened
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Mar 6, 2023 21:02
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Burn the Heretic! Kill the Mutant! Purge the Elderly! It is better to die for Tegnell than live for yourself. To admit defeat is to blaspheme against Tegnell. Even a man who has nothing can still offer his life. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 6, 2023 21:07
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Megamissen posted:im very bad at converting my thoughts into sentences so ill try again Sure. I only pointed out that Sweden had the best outcome of all of Europe. Regardless of underlying reason. There is no reason to assume FHM had a bad policy but got lucky, unless someone can present data to support that.
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Mar 6, 2023 21:20
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Potrzebie posted:There is no reason to assume FHM had a bad policy but got lucky, unless someone can present data to support that. TheFluff posted:my takeaways are, generally speaking, that people ascribed way too much agency to FHM (or the efficacy of policy response in general) My employer during the start of the pandemic lost any shred of good will they had with their workforce by weaseling around already lax rules as much as possible and then getting effectively shut down by sick leave and later isolation rules anyway. By contrast a neighboring institution took a modicum of precaution and effectively emerged unscathed. The contrast was a sight to behold. evil_bunnY fucked around with this message at 21:28 on Mar 6, 2023 |
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Mar 6, 2023 21:21
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evil_bunnY posted:Literally the entire political class deferred to FHM. That's not what I meant though. What I'm saying is that the actions taken (and not taken!) by FHM probably mattered way, way less than people think. Like, "if only they had mandated masks early on we would have been much better off" (substitute any policy action you like), and I'm just doubtful that is actually true (or at least I think it's much less true than generally assumed). Again, I think structural factors were more important. Basically Tegnell/FHM should get neither much blame nor much credit. People really wanna blame someone for all the bad things. Here it's Tegnell, in the US they turned the entire mask discourse into a matter of personal morals. e: I think your edit kinda illustrates my point btw. FHM could make recommendations or rules as much as it liked but that didn't mean society would instantly do as they said. TheFluff fucked around with this message at 21:37 on Mar 6, 2023 |
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Mar 6, 2023 21:34
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Megamissen posted:im very bad at converting my thoughts into sentences so ill try again So what should the policy response have been? Chinese style total lockdowns until there's rioting in the streets? It took well over a year until vaccine coverage started to get decent. Strict quarantines like in countries that are either islands or effectively islands (thinking of South Korea here) was never a realistic option in the EU, but it seems to have been one of very few actually effective policies. Still, even in those countries the disease is still spreading and taking a toll.
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Mar 6, 2023 21:50
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SplitSoul posted:Is it more or less valid than these estimates? That's a lot of dead Swedes V. Illych L. posted:i don't think it's a stretch to say that some people were freaking out about the mountains of corpses etc sure to result from the swedish policy beyond what seems from these data to be justified. it's unclear to me what we can learn from this more broadly, though. Goons are always wrong, usually for the worse but sometimes for the better?
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Mar 6, 2023 23:28
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TheFluff posted:So what should the policy response have been? Chinese style total lockdowns until there's rioting in the streets? It took well over a year until vaccine coverage started to get decent. Strict quarantines like in countries that are either islands or effectively islands (thinking of South Korea here) was never a realistic option in the EU, but it seems to have been one of very few actually effective policies. Still, even in those countries the disease is still spreading and taking a toll. the ideal would have been a global zero covid policy, with strict initial international (and intranational) travel restrictions that can be repealed over time as more and more countries became covid free aggressive action like that would hopefully also stop new worse variants from appearing completely unrealistic ofcourse, but i dont see a good way to fight such an infectious disease in a globalized world without a global action plan with covid it turned out there was no good (realistic) response but the big issue is if we assume all new pandemics will also be like this if the next pandemic less infectious, or we get a vaccine or similar that reduces the spread by a lot, maybe the lighter lockdowns used in europe would have been enough if the lesson we take from this is that we should not even try instead of using the experience to be better prepared to lock down and at least try to have some kind of international reponse ready, that would be very bad
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Mar 7, 2023 00:33
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Megamissen posted:the ideal would have been a global zero covid policy, with strict initial international (and intranational) travel restrictions that can be repealed over time as more and more countries became covid free China did this. I hope it is never tried again anywhere.
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Mar 7, 2023 05:55
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https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/experten-infor-arets-loneforhandling-tank-inte-bara-bara-pa-pengar/quote:Inflation och lågkonjunktur. Både för arbetsgivare och arbetstagare är kommande år utmanande. Därför tycker löneexperten Barbara Lidholt att årets kommande löneförhandlingar ska fokuseras på andra saker, än just lön. Seeing more and more of this kind of bullshit corporate propaganda in the media lately and it's pissing me the gently caress off. Jack Trades fucked around with this message at 09:22 on Mar 7, 2023 |
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Mar 7, 2023 09:10
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can I be a nag and ask that if an article is behind a paywall, that it’s copy and pasted ITT unless if someone knows how to get around said paywall. I’m gonna be a nag.
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Mar 7, 2023 09:18
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teen witch posted:can I be a nag and ask that if an article is behind a paywall, that it’s copy and pasted ITT unless if someone knows how to get around said paywall. I’m gonna be a nag. I edited in the relevant part.
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Mar 7, 2023 09:22
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Feelin like I gotta read the rest of the article to feel full fury Whatever software Swedish periodicals use online for paywalls are my mortal enemy, even local Eskilstuna Kuriren has one that’s unavoidable. I’m down to pay for journalism but christ; can I read even a smidgen of what’s going in where I live?
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Mar 7, 2023 09:31
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Jack Trades posted:https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/experten-infor-arets-loneforhandling-tank-inte-bara-bara-pa-pengar/ scandinavian wages are, in general, higher than they need to be if european integration of these economies is going to proceed apace. a majority of norwegian workers have also seen a real-term pay cut over the past year (to the point where real-term wages have been basically stagnant for the last decade) and there's no indication that this is going to change over the next couple of wage negotiations. LO seems to me to be in a posture of fighting retreat, trying to avoid wages normalising too quickly while remaining committed to the broader project as such. one change which can be done is to go back to lump sums instead of percentage increases, which would keep the salary structure more compact, but this would also not change the basic trend of there not being a lot of profits to recouperate at the negotiating table.
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Mar 7, 2023 09:39
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Potrzebie posted:China did this. I hope it is never tried again anywhere. the key is the 'global' part zero covid worked, they managed to stop both the inital outbreak aswell as subsequent ones coming in from outside but since it was limited to china it eventually failed, with more infectious variants being created and constantly probing their defences if china had existed in a vacuum then covid would have ended early 2020
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Mar 7, 2023 09:42
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zero covid is interesting, because what the chinese tried was so different to what we went for. it's being just outright rejected as an outgrowth of a totalitarian system or whatever, which i think is a pity because it really does represent a path not taken and merits more serious discussion
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Mar 7, 2023 09:52
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TheFluff posted:Still, even in those countries the disease is still spreading and taking a toll.
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Mar 7, 2023 10:40
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V. Illych L. posted:scandinavian wages are, in general, higher than they need to be if european integration of these economies is going to proceed apace. a majority of norwegian workers have also seen a real-term pay cut over the past year (to the point where real-term wages have been basically stagnant for the last decade) and there's no indication that this is going to change over the next couple of wage negotiations. LO seems to me to be in a posture of fighting retreat, trying to avoid wages normalising too quickly while remaining committed to the broader project as such. And we have to what. Just take this? I mean with sky-high productivity, insane prices on everything, we are just supposed to accept breadcrumbs at the bargaining table? Scandinavian wages are not too high. European wages are too low. All "wage stagnation" is going to do is make rich people richer and poor people more numerous, and rich people are busy fleeing for Switzerland rather than pay back into the system that made them wealthy in the first place. I am very unhappy with this development.
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Mar 7, 2023 11:04
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Jack Trades posted:https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/experten-infor-arets-loneforhandling-tank-inte-bara-bara-pa-pengar/ Well, it's still kinda true, not many employers are as stingy with non monetary benefits so people should definitely argue for that to be added if they can't get a proper raise. Small stuff like work from home every Thursday and Friday and consistent work hours with no semirandom scheduling during the week are things that can make an employee's life much better despite them not getting more than the basal salary increase.
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Mar 7, 2023 11:15
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PoontifexMacksimus posted:That's a lot of dead Swedes As the Tegnellistas would say: a good start.
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Mar 7, 2023 18:35
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Potrzebie posted:China did this. I hope it is never tried again anywhere. Agreed, with liberal democracies acting as plague incubators so we don't have to close restaurants, there was no way for zero covid to work in the long run.
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Mar 7, 2023 19:21
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I will never understand the need to blame liberal democracy for covid deaths in Scandinavia, and not on the pandemic itself. Scandinavia by all accounts fared really well through the pandemic, and it seems to annoy some people to no end.
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Mar 7, 2023 19:43
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Not what I'm saying. I'm saying that liberal democracies by and large adopted a "flatten the curve" approach, in which the goal wasn't to stop covid from spreading, but just to slow it down enough not to overwhelm hospitals. The result is that covid is now endemic and we're likely never getting rid of it. China showed that a zero covid approach can work, but obviously it only works if other countries aren't letting the disease spread, because you can't stay isolated forever.
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Mar 7, 2023 20:01
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I would argue that a strategy that depends on pretty much the whole world being able to faultlessly implement extreme levels of state control is in fact not a very good strategy. You can blame liberal democracies for that (and pretty much all other countries), but I don't really see the point.
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Mar 7, 2023 20:38
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I think you are overstating the degree to which you would need to "faultlessly implement extreme levels of state control", simple "isolating sick people" would have helped, but whatever.
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Mar 7, 2023 20:57
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People are notoriously good at following the governments proclamations on things they don't really want to, even if it's in their best interest in the long run.
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Mar 7, 2023 21:32
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Esran posted:simple "isolating sick people" would have helped, but whatever. How would that help? The only countries that came close to achieving zero covid performed measures far surpassing that. Even stricter controls in Scandinavia (or all liberal democracies) might flatten the curve somewhat more, but that doesn't really achieve the global zero covid required.
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Mar 7, 2023 21:37
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Orio posted:How would that help? Are you asking how isolating sick people during a pandemic would help limit infection? Since it was discussed a bunch a few pages ago: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html The people doing the investigation still don't think Russia did it to themselves, they're saying signs point toward some non-state pro-Ukraine group.
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Mar 7, 2023 22:57
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Esran posted:Are you asking how isolating sick people during a pandemic would help limit infection? No, I'm asking how that would help in terms of achieving zero covid, which is very different from just limiting infection. I thought that was pretty self-evident from the rest of my post.
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Mar 7, 2023 23:26
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