(Thread IKs:
weg, Toxic Mental)
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I hope I live long enough to one day see the beautiful future where Crimea is the Jersey Shore of Ukraine where its wholly part of New Jersey but its infested each weekend with Russians/New Yorkers getting fleeced for trashy t-shirts and highway robbed to the future's currency equivalent of €7.000 euro bottle service table spend minimums on Sunday nights at Temptations. They can drunk drive home at 7am Monday morning, broke, partied out down through the always-rigged-to-blow "Moskova II"-christened chunnel between formerly rival landmasses. What a wonderful world.
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Mar 7, 2023 08:47
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Turtle Watch posted:Am I being simple? Am I worrying about a forced exodus won’t happen? Maybe I am. Maybe Crimean reintegration with Ukraine would be more straightforward than I am imagining, and any rhetoric is just that. But the one thing I don’t accept is that “the colonists have it coming to them who cares”. I care! What is the “it” coming to them? It sounds very ominous and even if they do “deserve” “it” shouldn’t we be curious what exactly the “it” we are agreeing to is? Literally no one has said that, so what the gently caress are you talking about? The worst I want is for the new colonizers to go the gently caress home. Hell the lady in question who started this only suffered the great violence of "having to go home from vacation early".
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Mar 7, 2023 08:52
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So I’ve been absent from the thread for ages, what happened to that huge build up of tanks and planes that was on the news? Wasn’t there a huge Russian push about to happen?
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Mar 7, 2023 09:03
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Extra row of tits posted:So I’ve been absent from the thread for ages, what happened to that huge build up of tanks and planes that was on the news? Wasn’t there a huge Russian push about to happen? Yeah it's about done with and accomplished not much of anything. Most analysts think at most this offensive MAY yield Bakhmut but even if it does the Russian offensive would be culminated there and would yield strategic initiative to Ukraine
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Mar 7, 2023 09:07
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Extra row of tits posted:So I’ve been absent from the thread for ages, what happened to that huge build up of tanks and planes that was on the news? Wasn’t there a huge Russian push about to happen? the Huge Push has likely culminated with a pathetic *splish* instead of the resounding plop some of us were worried about. Looks like all they managed to pinch off were a few troops onto Bakhmut, with nothing to show for it anywhere else on the line.
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Mar 7, 2023 09:09
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Extra row of tits posted:So I’ve been absent from the thread for ages, what happened to that huge build up of tanks and planes that was on the news? Wasn’t there a huge Russian push about to happen? https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1631270936807714816
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Mar 7, 2023 09:10
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Turtle Watch posted:Am I being simple? Am I worrying about a forced exodus won’t happen? Maybe I am. Maybe Crimean reintegration with Ukraine would be more straightforward than I am imagining, and any rhetoric is just that. But the one thing I don’t accept is that “the colonists have it coming to them who cares”.(I don’t believe anyone here is seriously saying this, but I feel maybe some curiosity wouldn’t go amiss)I care! What is the “it” coming to them? It sounds very ominous and even if they do “deserve” “it” shouldn’t we be curious what exactly the “it” we are agreeing to is? There's been various mentions in this thread of the desired results vis-a-vis Russians in Crimea: - "go the gently caress home"; - "take a hike out" and "pay the bill for their dumb compensation and compensation besides"; - "ultimately one way or the other they're going to have to go back home". I leave it to your imagination and/or the applicable poster's clarification as to the particulars of the "one way or the other" that they have in mind for the removal of Russians from the region. Kchama posted:Literally no one has said that, so what the gently caress are you talking about? The worst I want is for the new colonizers to go the gently caress home. Hell the lady in question who started this only suffered the great violence of "having to go home from vacation early". zone posted:Russia started this war in 2014 and the war ends when they and their colonial transplants take a hike out of Ukraine, Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk included, past the 1991 borders, and pay the bill for their dumb adventure and compensation besides. Simple as. zone posted:She was crying about having to leave Crimea, talking about how cool it was living there and how it was like a second home to her and that she didn't want to leave there at all for these reasons. That's why she essentially got memed on by Ukrainian citizens who could have cared less for that line of thought, because in their eyes she really had no business being there so long in the first place. For context this happened around the time the Saki airbase got torched and several planes and airbase facilities destroyed or damaged, and sent most of the tourists as well as the people who'd either bought or otherwise obtained property in Crimea fleeing across the Kerch bridge. fizzy fucked around with this message at 09:21 on Mar 7, 2023 |
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Mar 7, 2023 09:17
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Kchama posted:Literally no one has said that, so what the gently caress are you talking about? The worst I want is for the new colonizers to go the gently caress home. Hell the lady in question who started this only suffered the great violence of "having to go home from vacation early". I agree that lady’s vacation being ruined in the war is not worthy of much sympathy. I just wanted to clarify what was meant more broadly by saying things such as “Russian colonists go home”. The resources that have been posted here are interesting, and I understand your specific meaning better. The kind of eliminationist rhetoric I was referring to is different and possibly just the kind of nonsense raving you can hear from any random person on twitter and not especially representative. The larger question of what Crimea’s future looks like does interest me though, and I have been trying to find out all I can, and am probably deficient and as one can imagine details are hard to come by at the moment, if anyone has any more recommendations I would appreciate it. Turtle Watch fucked around with this message at 09:23 on Mar 7, 2023 |
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Mar 7, 2023 09:20
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Turtle Watch posted:I agree that lady’s vacation being ruined in the war is not worthy of much sympathy. I just wanted to clarify what was meant more broadly by saying things such as “Russian colonists go home”. The resources that have been posted here are interesting, and I understand your specific meaning better. The kind of eliminationist rhetoric I was referring to is possibly just the kind of nonsense raving you can hear from any random person on twitter and not especially representative. If you're going to argue with a thread, then argue with what the thread has said, not what "someone else" on the internet has said. I don't give a gently caress what twitter idiots say.
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Mar 7, 2023 09:24
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Turtle Watch posted:I agree that lady’s vacation being ruined in the war is not worthy of much sympathy. I just wanted to clarify what was meant more broadly by saying things such as “Russian colonists go home”. The resources that have been posted here are interesting, and I understand your specific meaning better. The kind of eliminationist rhetoric I was referring to is possibly just the kind of nonsense raving you can hear from any random person on twitter and not especially representative. No-one here said anything besides "Russia should go back home and pay the bill". Why do you insist on constantly bringing up some imaginary "eliminationistic rhetoric", and demanding people to clarify their opinions?
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Mar 7, 2023 09:25
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Kchama posted:If you're going to argue with a thread, then argue with what the thread has said, not what "someone else" on the internet has said. I don't give a gently caress what twitter idiots say. I was worried that some people meant something that after talking to them I found out they didn’t mean and that I had misinterpreted. That’s all.
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Mar 7, 2023 09:26
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Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:Gosh I feel awful for this lady, but like... what was she supposed to do, she looks like an average mom. If anyone feels good that she's suffering, well, I don't know what to tell you. Nah, I don’t feel bad she’s “suffering”.
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Mar 7, 2023 09:36
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Funky See Funky Do posted:Time matters. We like to talk as though it doesn't but it does. If you were an European colonist in the 1700-1800s building "your home" on "your property" which was recently stolen native lands, then yes, it would be a fair moral comparison. It doesn't make you a hypocrite to note that imperialism and colonization are bad. Wonder if the Irish agree with this.
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Mar 7, 2023 09:38
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Extra row of tits posted:So I’ve been absent from the thread for ages, what happened to that huge build up of tanks and planes that was on the news? Wasn’t there a huge Russian push about to happen? Got burned down around Vuhledar for absolutely zilch to show for. There's various numbers going around, depending on which day they ended counting. I don't think it's "done" yet, but they lost something like 130 vehicles in the open fields over the first couple of days of their efforts.
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Mar 7, 2023 09:42
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Turtle Watch posted:The larger question of what Crimea’s future looks like does interest me though. I listened to an interview with Ben Hodges earlier today (whom I have to assume has a pretty good idea what he's talking about) and he thinks that by mid-year Ukraine will have the manpower and equipment it needs to cut the "land bridge" and take Mariupol and/or Melitopol, once that happens they're close enough to the Kerch bridge to take that out. That would completely isolate Crimea and make the Russian position untenable. If that's what you mean by it's future then we might learn that as soon as June/July. If you mean what does its longer term future look like, then nobody knows. The knock-on effects of the war will last for decades or even centuries if after the war mass graves full of civilians start being found everywhere.
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Mar 7, 2023 10:11
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Turtle Watch posted:I agree that lady’s vacation being ruined in the war is not worthy of much sympathy. I just wanted to clarify what was meant more broadly by saying things such as “Russian colonists go home”. The resources that have been posted here are interesting, and I understand your specific meaning better. The kind of eliminationist rhetoric I was referring to is different and possibly just the kind of nonsense raving you can hear from any random person on twitter and not especially representative. FWIW I understand the thinking there, it's really broad in its scope but there's a valid question of "what do you do when people have moved their lives to places that they really shouldn't have?". I think that's an ever-present question if you're supporting the side of seeing Ukraine kick out the imperialists. Certainly the new money colonials don't deserve very much sympathy, probably something akin to (and this might be a bad analogy) along the lines of what Zionist settlers in the West Bank are still doing today. A lot of nations and states are founded through immoral means, of course. Do kids born in Crimea since 2014 really have any blood on their hands? Should they be deported in the event that Ukraine were to get Crimea back? Or given Ukrainian citizenship if their family wants? Those kinds of questions are way bigger than anyone here can wrangle with and it's probably more for some kind of truth and reconciliation commission to deal with.
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Mar 7, 2023 10:13
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Funky See Funky Do posted:I listened to an interview with Ben Hodges earlier today (whom I have to assume has a pretty good idea what he's talking about) and he thinks that by mid-year Ukraine will have the manpower and equipment it needs to cut the "land bridge" and take Mariupol and/or Melitopol, once that happens they're close enough to the Kerch bridge to take that out. That would completely isolate Crimea and make the Russian position untenable. If that's what you mean by it's future then we might learn that as soon as June/July. Why do you assume Ben Hodges has a pretty good idea what he's talking about? He's a retired general (instead of being in active service with access to intelligence reports) and his previous predictions include "It is possible to hope Russia could be pushed back to the positions it held in Ukraine on February 23, before it launched its full-scale invasion, by the end of 2022" (made in May 2022). He's a pundit, like scores of other pundits, that's all.
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Mar 7, 2023 10:20
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fizzy posted:Why do you assume Ben Hodges has a pretty good idea what he's talking about? That was before the Russian mobilization though. Without the mobilization, that could have been possible.
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Mar 7, 2023 10:48
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quote:If that's what you mean by it's future then we might learn that as soon as June/July. Thanks. I wonder about both. Im not good at making predictions, but yeah there are pretty plausible bad potential prospects long term. Toxic Mental posted:FWIW I understand the thinking there, it's really broad in its scope but there's a valid question of "what do you do when people have moved their lives to places that they really shouldn't have?". I think that's an ever-present question if you're supporting the side of seeing Ukraine kick out the imperialists. Thanks also for responding, it is the kind of thing I wonder about, ever since I was first convinced that Israeli settler colonialism was wrong I started to wonder what the actual decolonization process would look like. At some point it is as you say very big questions, hard to wrangle. There’s a lot of hypotheticals but at this point I guess it is me putting the cart before the horse to fixate on, and perhaps outside of the scope of the thread. I like the idea of a truth and reconciliation commission and it would be about the best case scenario I can envision in Crimea.
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Mar 7, 2023 10:48
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Lots of the new people are there because of Russian government subsidies. If Ukraine is back in charge they probably just go back to Russia by themselves, even if Crimea gets back Autonomous Republic status. e: or to put it another way, there's a massive difference between Israeli settlers driven by an ideology that they're recovering their god-given homeland, and a Russian who has shown up for a cheap house and a government job. The latter has no emotional need to stick around once the job disappears. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 10:56 on Mar 7, 2023 |
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Mar 7, 2023 10:53
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fizzy posted:Why do you assume Ben Hodges has a pretty good idea what he's talking about? He's not just some random pundit ex-general though. He was the commander NATO ground forces while Russia was invading Crimea, prior to retirement. He certainly knows many many times more about war, armies, and logistics than I could ever hope to though and I at least take his opinion seriously. I have no reason not to. I'm open to being given one if there is. This is turning into DND style post, so I'm real loving sorry about that. quote:The timeline for that has, of course, not been specified. That's the full quote of what he said about that and it looks like a pretty reasonable speculation given what was happening at the time. That was in May and in September Ukraine pushed Russian right out of northern Ukraine. Anyway here's the whole 90 minute interview timestamped at the part where he talks about Ukrainian forces, what he thinks they're capable of, and why. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcK87PT2yxs&t=4448s
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Mar 7, 2023 10:55
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Turtle Watch posted:
Here's a hint: there's a reason why Turkey is and has always been hard-line "Crimea is Ukraine", even in literal face-to-face meetings with Putin lol at throwing around anecdotes to hand-wring about demographics and the results of Russification under the Soviets you don't understand edit: Russian occupiers started up their poo poo again against Tartars the second they could in 2014 - here's some pre-2022 coverage of that from HRW: https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/11/14/crimea-persecution-crimean-tatars-intensifies Trying to somehow equate the Ukrainian sentiment if not the actual history is disingenuous at best Victis fucked around with this message at 11:29 on Mar 7, 2023 |
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Mar 7, 2023 11:08
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about Crimean Tartars (a Turkic peoples)
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Also, it's not just "kids born in Crimea after 2014" - there's a lot of older Russian speaking/feeling residents of Crimea who have lived entire long lives there. If your parents or grandparents moved there back in the Soviet colonisation days, it's entirely reasonable to feel like Crimea is home - but if you also grew up in a Russian social group you can still feel closer to Russia than Ukraine. There's a large spectrum of possible outcomes - from "throwing them all out" like the de-germanification of Prussia/Pomerania after 1945, via "keep some autonomy, language and culture" a la Quebeck, to "slow but complete assimilation into a normal region with a weird dialect" like Skåne in Sweden after they captured it from Denmark. The first one is undeniably a drastic measure; uprooting second and third generation settlers is plainly throwing normal people out of their homes. The second is hard to sell politically - I can't imagine "let's create a special Russian zone" will be popular in Ukraine at large ... and it makes little sense with how many non-Russian people live in the same territory. The last one may be the most viable alternative; integrate it fully, enforce Ukrainian as the preferred language, and hope things settle down within the next two-three centuries. Maybe temper it with some provisions for Russian speakers. I can't really see any good alternatives as long as Russia is a hostile neighbour.
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Mar 7, 2023 11:16
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I don't think you send in troops to seize Crimea if you're confident about your demographic advantage there.
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Mar 7, 2023 11:31
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Twitter asking the real questions today: https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1632884769347231745
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Mar 7, 2023 12:07
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If Ukraine takes back the territories lost since 2014, and then goes on to have its own little imperialistic conquest, I suspect Ukraine will have problems. I don't really see how this is a worthwhile train of thought.
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Mar 7, 2023 12:13
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It's the dumb argument tankies keep bringing up that if the west keeps arming Ukraine then it will go wild with power and take over russia. It's dumb as gently caress. e - If that did happen, support will tank so hard. Both public and government. No one wants the break up of russia, people just want russia back in it's borders. Well sane people think that anyway.
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Mar 7, 2023 12:23
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The problem with freedom is that it makes people free to be stupid and horrible
Karate Bastard fucked around with this message at 12:29 on Mar 7, 2023 |
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Mar 7, 2023 12:24
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Alchenar posted:Twitter asking the real questions today:
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Mar 7, 2023 12:26
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Toxic Mental posted:FWIW I understand the thinking there, it's really broad in its scope but there's a valid question of "what do you do when people have moved their lives to places that they really shouldn't have?". I think that's an ever-present question if you're supporting the side of seeing Ukraine kick out the imperialists. Even something like cutting Crimea off from Russia has certain implications, as far as making life untenable there for Russian transplants. Do you starve them out? That seems abhorrent. So, cut them off, but then supply them with the basic necessities? What then becomes the reason for them to leave? Truly not hoping for Crimea to remain in Russian hands, and would be glad to be proven wrong. Slugworth fucked around with this message at 12:33 on Mar 7, 2023 |
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Mar 7, 2023 12:31
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War, war never changes. (it's bad)
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Mar 7, 2023 12:34
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Tai posted:No one wants the break up of russia  (But that's a wholly separate discussion about the legacy of russian colonialism and its relationship to other colonial empires around the world, as well as the nature of statehood that we can have elsewhere, preferably over beers)
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Mar 7, 2023 12:41
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Slugworth posted:This is my ultimate concern with Crimea. We can sit and say simplistic things like "they're colonists, they need to leave", but will they? If they don't, what's the plan? I don't love the idea of Ukraine invading a city, even if people here are willing to describe it as liberation. We know what happens when a city is taken by force. It's not right or fair for Crimea to not be returned to Ukraine, but sometimes you can't unfuck something. The time to act was a decade ago, before hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens were transplanted. Do you have the same concerns over Donbas, why or why not
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Mar 7, 2023 12:41
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Slugworth posted:Even something like cutting Crimea off from Russia has certain implications, as far as making life untenable there for Russian transplants. It would make the Russian military position untenable. Ukraine is incredibly conscious that its survival depends on western aid and western commitment to supplying that aid. There is no way it's going to attack civilians or even attack Russian positions if they have good reason to believe doing so would end in civilian casualties. And in attacking civilians I include things like starving them. Ukraine and its allies will be more than happy to supply any civilians in Crimea or surrendered Russians with all the food and water they need. The only reason food and water would not reach civilians in Crimea is the Russians do something to stop it. Footage (that isn't another bad Russian fake) of starving Crimeans or dead civilians caused by Ukrainian attacks could lose the entire war for Ukraine.
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Mar 7, 2023 12:44
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armpit_enjoyer posted:
Yeah actually that came across by me as rather short sighted considering everything there. I just mean in the short term with regards to the immediate war that is going on with booting russia out. I 100% know that there are alot of bad stuff going on internally.
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Mar 7, 2023 12:48
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The executed Ukrainian POW has a name: Tymofiy Mykolayovych Shadura As per Ukraine's General Staff and passed through autotranslate: "The shooting of an unarmed prisoner is a cynical and brazen disregard for the norms of international humanitarian law and the customs of war. This is what worthless murderers do, but not warriors. The Russian occupiers have once again testified that their main goal in Ukraine is the brutal extermination of Ukrainians. The identity of the courageous Ukrainian soldier has been established in advance. According to preliminary data, the deceased is a serviceman of the 30th separate mechanized brigade named after Prince Konstantin Ostrozhsky Operational Command "North" Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Tymofiy Mykolayovych Shadura. The final answer will be given by appropriate examinations. No death of our warrior will go unpunished. But we will do it in a legal and fair way - on the battlefield, in court or in an international tribunal. With a cool head, with observance of the rules of war and with honor, we will surely take revenge for everyone! Eternal memory and Glory to the Hero!" https://twitter.com/generalstaffua/status/1633053724523331588
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Mar 7, 2023 12:53
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Slugworth posted:This is my ultimate concern with Crimea. We can sit and say simplistic things like "they're colonists, they need to leave", but will they? If they don't, what's the plan? I don't love the idea of Ukraine invading a city, even if people here are willing to describe it as liberation. We know what happens when a city is taken by force. It's not right or fair for Crimea to not be returned to Ukraine, but sometimes you can't unfuck something. The time to act was a decade ago, before hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens were transplanted. Funky See Funky Do posted:It would make the Russian military position untenable. Ukraine is incredibly conscious that its survival depends on western aid and western commitment to supplying that aid. There is no way it's going to attack civilians or even attack Russian positions if they have good reason to believe doing so would end in civilian casualties. And in attacking civilians I include things like starving them. Ukraine and its allies will be more than happy to supply any civilians in Crimea or surrendered Russians with all the food and water they need. The only reason food and water would not reach civilians in Crimea is the Russians do something to stop it. Ukraine already cut off Crimea's water supply in 2014 after the Russian annexation, though (albeit under the previous presidency of Viktor Yanukovych rather than the current administration). This does not justify Russia's invasion of Ukraine, of course, but it's worth pointing out because the best antidote to Russia's onslaught of lies, deceit and propaganda is factual truth. quote:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal quote:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-crimea-economy-idUSKBN0EG0BJ20140605 fizzy fucked around with this message at 13:05 on Mar 7, 2023 |
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Mar 7, 2023 13:01
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fizzy posted:Ukraine already cut off Crimea's water supply in 2014 after the Russian annexation, though (albeit under the previous presidency of Viktor Yanukovych rather than the current administration). If I remember correctly, that water made up little of their drinking water and was primarily used for agriculture (Which seems to be a similar breakdown to what percentage the water was used for what), and it more involved stealing the water from Ukraine. Which is probably why Ukraine didn't have a problem cutting it off.
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Mar 7, 2023 13:13
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fizzy posted:Ukraine already cut off Crimea's water supply in 2014 after the Russian annexation, though (albeit under the previous presidency of Viktor Yanukovych rather than the current administration). There was zero shortage in potable water, so I'm not sure how the canal applies to any of your quoted Serious Concerns They did have to move away from water-intensive crops like wine grapes
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Mar 7, 2023 13:13
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fizzy posted:Ukraine already cut off Crimea's water supply in 2014 after the Russian annexation, though. I'm well aware. I did not create any kind of humanitarian crisis. Did anyone die of thirst or starvation as a result? There was plainly enough drinking water left for everyone. Any excess water beyond that is an economic resource they were right to deny the enemy. Why should Russia get to profit off the grain and the industry they just stole?
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Mar 7, 2023 13:13
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