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sniper4625 posted:https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html Throw it on the pile with the rest of the speculation, I guess. The article is very slim on real information, and just seems to lean on a lot of coulda, mighta possibilities from anonymous sources. Very click-baity. Part of the problem is that it doesn't really make sense for anybody to have done it, yet someone did - so I'm mainly curious about their chain of logic that convinced them it was a good idea.
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Mar 7, 2023 17:06
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OddObserver posted:That seems like an odd thing for a group of freelancers to be able to do, but maybe there are some really opinionated hobby divers? This looks like a job for the SEA PATROL.
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Mar 7, 2023 17:08
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I can see Ukrainians emotionally wanting to blow them up --- they are after all symbols of European appeasement of Russia --- but it seems hard to do for people w/o some specialized stuff (which as I just said, might be less specialized than I think since I don't know anything about diving...)
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Mar 7, 2023 17:09
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sniper4625 posted:https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html It's quite vague so far: quote:U.S. officials said there was much they did not know about the perpetrators and their affiliations. The review of newly collected intelligence suggests they were opponents of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, but does not specify the members of the group, or who directed or paid for the operation. U.S. officials declined to disclose the nature of the intelligence, how it was obtained or any details of the strength of the evidence it contains. They have said that there are no firm conclusions about it, leaving open the possibility that the operation might have been conducted off the books by a proxy force with connections to the Ukrainian government or its security services.
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Mar 7, 2023 17:12
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Deteriorata posted:Part of the problem is that it doesn't really make sense for anybody to have done it, yet someone did - so I'm mainly curious about their chain of logic that convinced them it was a good idea. Didn't the Russians have a reason to do it if they were going to cut Germany off? I remember people on here claiming at the time that contracts would generally not penalize non-delivery in the event of sabotage the same way as deliberate failure to comply with the agreement. Not sure if it was actually true (I am not a lawyer).
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Mar 7, 2023 17:23
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OddObserver posted:I can see Ukrainians emotionally wanting to blow them up --- they are after all symbols of European appeasement of Russia --- but it seems hard to do for people w/o some specialized stuff (which as I just said, might be less specialized than I think since I don't know anything about diving...) The depths they’d be operating at to do that require extremely specialized gear and training. I’ve got an effortpost kicking around one of the Ukraine threads from when it first happened that I can try and dig up as to exactly how much training and gear would go into something like that, I can try and dig it up.
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Mar 7, 2023 17:37
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my bad, removed.
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Mar 7, 2023 17:50
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This was in response to one of mlmp08's "excerpts as I choose them" posts from an SDO briefing on 29 Sept. In that excerpt, SDO mentioned that the bombed area of the pipeline was 80-100m down, which is where I got those numbers form. My own background: I'm a former PADI divemaster who never got into the technical diving* world, but was on the verge of taking the plunge (  ) before covid hit. The shop I worked for was owned by a tech diving instructor who was constantly trying to lure me into those depths, and a lot of our other staff was tech-certified to some degree or another...so I've had some exposure to that world. My own gear was set up as the self-reliant diver type, which was done as a precursor to a tech setup (particularly the 'carrying multiple independent tanks' aspect).Icon Of Sin posted:80-100m down is pretty far, even for the technical divers I used to know. It’s still doable by divers, but there would be a lot of moving parts, specialized gear, hell even special gas mixes just to even breathe at that depth as a diver (some version of trimix with almost all of the O2 pulled out would have to be the breathing gas at depth, for how the pressure and biochemistry interact). *technical diving: any diving where either by time or depth, you are required to do decompression stops of some sort. This is as opposed to recreational diving, where decompression stops are inherently not mandatory (but still encouraged as "safety stops". The depth at which things change from recreational diving to technical diving is generally held to be around 40m/130ft, by the civilian training agencies. If you're going by USN dive tables, they don't give a gently caress about decompression until you hit the maximum operating depth for whatever gas mix you're breathing (approximately 190ft for atmospheric gas, this depth moves upwards if you take out nitrogen and mix in more oxygen).
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Mar 7, 2023 17:56
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), it’s a lockout trunk.
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Why Ukraine is still defending Bakhmut: Ukraine says Wagner is running out of prisoner recruits to send into the battle for Bakhmut quote:Ukrainian officials said on Tuesday that Russia’s Wagner private military company had been forced to shift to using more of its professional soldiers in the battle for Bakhmut as its supply of prisoner recruits dwindled. The claim suggested that Ukraine, by insisting that it will keep defending Bakhmut, may see an opportunity to hang on long enough there to severely damage Wagner, a highly effective fighting force for Russia.
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Mar 7, 2023 17:59
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Icon Of Sin posted:This was in response to one of mlmp08's "excerpts as I choose them" posts from an SDO briefing on 29 Sept. In that excerpt, SDO mentioned that the bombed area of the pipeline was 80-100m down, which is where I got those numbers form. Thanks for digging this up. It seems quite unlikely that somebody would just recruit some 'ard lads in a pub to do this sort of thing, and I imagine the average professional diver would not usually know how to handle explosives. So that brings us back to some kind of state-sponsored group.
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Mar 7, 2023 18:05
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SixFigureSandwich posted:Thanks for digging this up. It seems quite unlikely that somebody would just recruit some 'ard lads in a pub to do this sort of thing, and I imagine the average professional diver would not usually know how to handle explosives. So that brings us back to some kind of state-sponsored group. Who says it had to be divers, anyway? Not saying that I believe James Cameron did it, but it seems like the explosives could be inserted in several ways. In all cases making a bomb that works reliably at such depths seems like the rarer skill set than working at those depths, imo. (Unless the bombs were inside the pipes.)
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Mar 7, 2023 18:22
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Deteriorata posted:Why Ukraine is still defending Bakhmut: The Bakhmut situation is fascinating, but it's worth mentioning that if you wanted to withdraw, claiming you're going to keep defending the city would be a very good idea. There was similar talk of reinforcements being brought in when Ukraine withdrew from Lysychansk I also believe that they may be able to hold on long enough to break Wagner and roll them over though, so it could be either.
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Mar 7, 2023 18:27
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Deteriorata posted:Why Ukraine is still defending Bakhmut: I think it's less about damaging Wagner militarily, so much as damaging them politically. As much as they're evil bastards, Prigozhin, Kadyrov, and Surovikin were a trifecta of reasonably competent Russian power movers who were briefly collaborating last year. Surovikin's infrastructure strategy failed but he prevented a general Russian collapse by retreating from unfavorable terrain around Kharkiv and Kherson. His removal coincided with costly Russian assaults at Vuhledar under the new command. If they'd succeeded in ousting Shoigu then Russian leadership may have become far more effective. Holding Bakhmut means damaging Wagner, and the associated power centers, in the Russian political scene i.e. they promised to take the city and have failed.
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Mar 7, 2023 18:33
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Morrow posted:I think it's less about damaging Wagner militarily, so much as damaging them politically. As much as they're evil bastards, Prigozhin, Kadyrov, and Surovikin were a trifecta of reasonably competent Russian power movers who were briefly collaborating last year. Wait, hold up, Kadyrov is in the reasonably competent column? I thought he was primarily a tiktok poo poo poster.
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Mar 7, 2023 19:09
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WarpedLichen posted:Wait, hold up, Kadyrov is in the reasonably competent column? I thought he was primarily a tiktok poo poo poster. He's competent in the sense that he's successfully keeping Chechnya quiet. So politically competent at least, less sure about militarily.
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Mar 7, 2023 19:11
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Tomn posted:He's competent in the sense that he's successfully keeping Chechnya quiet. So politically competent at least, less sure about militarily. Also provides valuable domestic assassination services.
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Mar 7, 2023 19:12
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German investigative report on NordStream : https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2023-03/nordstream-2-ukraine-anschlag DeepL -Translation: The German investigative authorities have apparently made a breakthrough in solving the attack on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. According to a joint investigation by ARD's capital city studio, the ARD political magazine Kontraste, SWR and DIE ZEIT, it has been possible to reconstruct to a large extent how and when the explosives attack was prepared. According to this, traces lead in the direction of Ukraine. However, investigators have not yet found any evidence of who ordered the destruction. On the night of September 26, 2022, three of the four strings of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines were destroyed by explosions on the bottom of the Baltic Sea. Specifically, according to information from ARD-Hauptstadtstudio, Kontraste, SWR and ZEIT, investigators have succeeded in identifying the boat that was presumably used for the secret operation. It is said to be a yacht rented from a company based in Poland, apparently owned by two Ukrainians. The clandestine operation at sea is said to have been carried out by a team of six people, according to the investigation. It is said to have involved five men and one woman. According to the report, the group consisted of a captain, two divers, two diving assistants and a female doctor, who are said to have transported the explosives to the crime scenes and placed them there. The nationality of the perpetrators is apparently unclear. The assassins used professionally forged passports, which are said to have been used, among other things, to rent the boat. According to the investigation, the commando set sail from Rostock on September 6, 2022. The equipment for the clandestine operation was previously transported to the port in a van, it is said. In the further course, the investigators succeeded in locating the boat the following day again in Wieck (Darß) and later at the Danish island Christiansø, northeast of Bornholm, according to the research. The yacht was subsequently returned to the owner in uncleaned condition. On the table in the cabin, the investigators were able to detect traces of explosives, according to the research. According to information from ARD-Hauptstadtstudio, Kontraste, SWR and ZEIT, a Western intelligence service is said to have sent a tip to European partner services as early as in the fall, i.e. shortly after the destruction, according to which a Ukrainian commando was responsible for the destruction. Thereafter, there are said to have been further intelligence indications suggesting that a pro-Ukrainian group could be responsible. For their research, ARD's Hauptstadtstudio, Kontraste, SWR and ZEIT spoke with sources in several countries. Security agencies in Germany, Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands and the United States were involved in the investigation into the destruction of the pipelines. In Germany, the investigation is being led by the Federal Prosecutor General, who has commissioned both the Federal Criminal Police Office and the Federal Police. Even though traces lead to Ukraine, investigators have not yet succeeded in finding out who commissioned the suspected group of perpetrators. In international security circles, it is not ruled out that this could also be a false-flag operation. This means that traces could also have been deliberately laid that point to Ukraine as the perpetrator. However, investigators have apparently found no evidence to corroborate such a scenario. The Ukrainian government could not initially be reached for comment. The federal prosecutor general also declined to comment. A German government spokesman referred to ongoing investigations by the Federal Prosecutor General and authorities in Sweden and Denmark. Only "a few days ago," Sweden, Denmark and Germany had "informed the United Nations Security Council that the investigations are ongoing and that there are no results yet," the government spokesman said.
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Mar 7, 2023 19:20
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Yeah, Kadyrov isn't competent at all and his "handpicked troops" invented the Tiktok soldier meme. Surovikin is a mildly competent general in that he knew that Russia needed to go on the defense to recover its strength and had the media persona of "Colonel Armageddon" so he could sell it while warcriming the crap out of Ukraine in the wake of the Kerch Bridge downing. Thus he was able to actually sell the Kherson withdrawal and kept the defenders there reasonably intact. Prigozhin is a politician (and hilariously profane and not-as-hilariously brutal ex-convict) whose military experience is about 2 steps removed from gang warfare.
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Mar 7, 2023 19:23
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WarpedLichen posted:Wait, hold up, Kadyrov is in the reasonably competent column? I thought he was primarily a tiktok poo poo poster. Aren't his men also the guardsmen that hunt down and shoot deserters? Kadyrov might be a joke of a political leader, but he is a ruthless warlord running a very tight ship with his personal army, while providing several useful services to Putin. Also like Shoigu, he is also completely impossible option as a potential replacement for Putin, so he has his place in the Inner circle, and being loyal to the top dog who pays his bills is also his lifeline. If the next one decides to kick Kadyrov out of Kremlin due to lack of trust, his puppet show dictatorship comes crashing down when he runs out of money.
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Mar 7, 2023 19:26
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Icon Of Sin posted:*technical diving: any diving where either by time or depth, you are required to do decompression stops of some sort. This is as opposed to recreational diving, where decompression stops are inherently not mandatory (but still encouraged as "safety stops". The depth at which things change from recreational diving to technical diving is generally held to be around 40m/130ft, by the civilian training agencies. If you're going by USN dive tables, they don't give a gently caress about decompression until you hit the maximum operating depth for whatever gas mix you're breathing (approximately 190ft for atmospheric gas, this depth moves upwards if you take out nitrogen and mix in more oxygen). Hold on, the PADI taught decompression stops aren’t actually necessary? That’s hilarious somehow, I’ve always been so diligent and felt like I was doing something important.
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Mar 7, 2023 19:37
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ought ten posted:Hold on, the PADI taught decompression stops aren’t actually necessary? That’s hilarious somehow, I’ve always been so diligent and felt like I was doing something important. Yes and no. They’re always a good idea no matter what you did, and every dive computer will tell you to do a safety stop no matter what now. On the navy tables (designed for hyper-fit 18-26 year olds), safety stops don’t exist. Tue navy tables also allow for a 100ft per minute ascension rate (also an 80ft per minute descent rate!), and these concepts fill me with a terror I can’t properly articulate. always do your safety stops anyways, especially if you’ve been diving a lot that day/the previous few days. It’s a good habit to have.
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Mar 7, 2023 19:45
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People miss the point with Kadyrov's competence: it's not about military competence of his forces or w/e it's about the solidity of his grip on power in Chechnya and his ability to continue to deliver a functionally stable, pacified Chechen state to Putin. Putin's deal with Kadyrov was a devil's bargain of huge funding and an absolute blank pass for Kadyrov's state in return for no further political or military problems from Chechnya. To that effect his state is quite effective. Kadyrov's social media stuff also significantly predates tik tok. insofar as it matters, it mostly is just a reflection of him having been media savvy for a long time, insofar as it matters at all. Generally the kadyrovite tik tok stuff is completely insignificant and not worth reading into really at all The effectiveness of Kadyrov's security state and its brutality is not really in question. Every time it looks like perhaps there are cracks forming he steps up to an even more egregious level of repression and reprisals. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 19:59 on Mar 7, 2023 |
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Mar 7, 2023 19:54
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KingaSlipek posted:German investigative report on NordStream : https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2023-03/nordstream-2-ukraine-anschlag Well, best case scenario is that this is some rogue bunch of idiots acting on their own. Though even then, if that is in fact the case it's still kinda disturbing that a rogue bunch of idiots can successfully sabotage as major a piece of infrastructure as Nordstream. If it was an official Ukrainian government op all hell would break loose. I imagine there are some very pointed questions being asked at the government level between Western leaders and Ukraine right now. Though that being said, if this WAS a professional op you'd think that tidying up a rented boat and not leaving evidence of explosives behind would have been a basic part of operational security.
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Mar 7, 2023 19:57
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I think it's pretty clear there won't be a sober analysis on who blew up the pipeline for another decade (but the CIA were probably involved regardless)
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Mar 7, 2023 20:02
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Deteriorata posted:Part of the problem is that it doesn't really make sense for anybody to have done it, yet someone did - so I'm mainly curious about their chain of logic that convinced them it was a good idea. The simplest theory I've seen is that Russians spent a week rigging bombs in early September on the then-dormant NS1 lines for use in scaring the Germans in mid-winter, but an NS2 line ruptured due to poor construction in late September, forcing the Russians to blow the bombs shortly after to avoid their discovery in subsequent pipeline inspections. So, as usual, Russia's highest-stakes super-spy skullduggery is being undermined by institutional corruption and incompetence. #Moscow4 This guy is actively working on gathering supporting evidence for this theory, which is worth taking a look at: https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/is-the-akademik-cherskiy-to-blame
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Mar 7, 2023 20:08
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Der Kyhe posted:Aren't his men also the guardsmen that hunt down and shoot deserters? No, you should stop reading whatever racist rag you took Chechen executioners from. Morrow posted:I think it's less about damaging Wagner militarily, so much as damaging them politically. As much as they're evil bastards, Prigozhin, Kadyrov, and Surovikin were a trifecta of reasonably competent Russian power movers who were briefly collaborating last year. Kadyrov stopped being involved intimately after Mariupol', and has been carefully whining about the Chechen sacrifices to the war ever since, when it turned out that Ukrainians shoot back and the whole thing is a bit more complicated than terrorizing the domestic population.
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Mar 7, 2023 20:11
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It was also the time in the crisis where Eastern EU members and Germany with France were still infighting on how to react to this war. There were also people inside EU being glad that "ignore Eastern European EU members as usual and press for normalized relations with Russia" was no longer an option the German government could take.
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Mar 7, 2023 20:13
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Kadyrov stopped being involved intimately after Mariupol', and has been carefully whining about the Chechen sacrifices to the war ever since, when it turned out that Ukrainians shoot back and the whole thing is a bit more complicated than terrorizing the domestic population. Which is unfortunate - Russia would be out of every category of ammunition by now if the 1st TikTok Regiment had continued their phenomenal work of shooting from hip at empty buildings. Meanwhile - Turkey will meet with Finland and Sweden in Brussels on Thursday after a long pause in talks. There's no telling if anything has changed. But Swedish government has now written the bill for joining NATO, which the parliament will pass two weeks from now. Finland passed its NATO law last week. Hungarian politicians are also visiting Finnish parliament tomorrow, so it's a busy NATO week.
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Mar 7, 2023 20:20
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A U.S. general says that Ukrainians are already using JDAM-ERs for 3 weeks, if in limited numbers. That Bloomberg article about them would align with the timing quite closely. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/winged-jdam-smart-bombs-are-now-operational-in-ukraineTomn posted:Well, best case scenario is that this is some rogue bunch of idiots acting on their own. Though even then, if that is in fact the case it's still kinda disturbing that a rogue bunch of idiots can successfully sabotage as major a piece of infrastructure as Nordstream. Currently the story is, to quote a summary I saw elsewhere online: quote:Indications that it was ~Eastern Europeans with forged passports~ who did it. Our unknown source said traces lead to ~Ukraine~, but maybe it is a ~false flag~ but there are no indicators for a ~false flag~. And none of the authorities we ask will give us a statement on this !1! Which basically looks the same as the American piece from earlier. Going to need at least some meaningful details here.
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Mar 7, 2023 20:22
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Herstory Begins Now posted:People miss the point with Kadyrov's competence: it's not about military competence of his forces or w/e it's about the solidity of his grip on power in Chechnya and his ability to continue to deliver a functionally stable, pacified Chechen state to Putin. Putin's deal with Kadyrov was a devil's bargain of huge funding and an absolute blank pass for Kadyrov's state in return for no further political or military problems from Chechnya. To that effect his state is quite effective. the skills and tactics that are very effective in maintaining a tyrannical grip on a region where you have extensive personal ties and an informally organized opposing force are very much not the skills you need to direct an offensive military campaign against an actual army in foreign territory kadyrov is a very competent mafia boss, but you don't send a mafia to do conventional warfare
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Mar 7, 2023 21:10
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:the skills and tactics that are very effective in maintaining a tyrannical grip on a region where you have extensive personal ties and an informally organized opposing force are very much not the skills you need to direct an offensive military campaign against an actual army in foreign territory Yeah, idk why people even bring up his competence in military terms as relevant to anything because it just isn't. He self-styles as a warlord, but that's been transparently an aesthetic thing forever
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Mar 8, 2023 00:31
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KingaSlipek posted:German investigative report on NordStream : https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2023-03/nordstream-2-ukraine-anschlag
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Mar 8, 2023 00:51
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Charlz Guybon posted:This seems really thin evidence. Until they know the identities of the people who carried out the operation, the boat being owned by a Ukrainian doesn't mean anything. Pointing that out without evidence that the owner was connected beyond a routine rental strikes me as a rather irresponsible insinuation. Edit: the article is still way better than NYT one, which is just basically "some spooks leaked us some vague stuff, trust us, bro!" OddObserver fucked around with this message at 01:07 on Mar 8, 2023 |
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Mar 8, 2023 00:58
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The training required to even operate at these depths safely really makes me doubt this could be done as anything but someone actually supplied/trained well.
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Mar 8, 2023 01:00
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https://kyivindependent.com/national/season-of-offensives-what-to-expect-from-the-spring-campaign-in-ukraine Kyiv Independent has a collab piece with Kofman and Lee about what's reasonably expected to come.
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Mar 8, 2023 01:33
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If the Nordstream pipeline is back in the discussion, what was the general response to the Seymour Hersh article alleging that it was the United States? That still seems to be a popular citation for explaining what happened.
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Mar 8, 2023 01:41
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Dolash posted:If the Nordstream pipeline is back in the discussion, what was the general response to the Seymour Hersh article alleging that it was the United States? That still seems to be a popular citation for explaining what happened. Seymour Hersh is not a credible journalist and hasn't been for several decades.
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Mar 8, 2023 01:43
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Dolash posted:If the Nordstream pipeline is back in the discussion, what was the general response to the Seymour Hersh article alleging that it was the United States? That still seems to be a popular citation for explaining what happened. You can read it here: yurtcradled posted:Well this is something... Seymour Hersh apparently created a substack a few hours ago and posted an essay titled How America Took Out the Nordstream.
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Mar 8, 2023 01:45
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Hersh's piece leans very heavily into pro-Russian narratives, including some that are obviously and demonstrably false (eg the idea that the only reason Germany currently isn't importing Russian gas is due to the sabotage - Russia cut the flow of gas off well before and has not restored it since even though there is a surviving pipeline). It's catnip for people who already support Russia but it's unlikely to convince many who weren't already on that team.
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Mar 8, 2023 01:54
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcERDZR9lpo This is a pretty good panel discussion from a couple of weeks ago about the past, present and future of Russia's outlook on the war. Maria Snegovaya, Michael Kimmage, Dara Massicot. Maybe not as entertaining as Zeihan, but probably a lot more on point.
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Mar 8, 2023 02:43
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