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Deus Ex Macklemore
Jul 2, 2004


Zelensky's Zealots
I do understand that there is a lot of conjecture, but I also know that I have zero experience in tactical poo poo involving land stuff, so I appreciate the lessons :)

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Action-Bastard
Jan 1, 2008

RBA-Wintrow posted:

I'm seeing some speculation in Dutch media that the ammunition delivery to Wagner PMC has been halted again to create an "offramp" for Putin. If Wagner is forced to retreat they can be accused of betraying the war effort and the Russian army needs to withdraw "to protect Russia." Maximum scapegoating Wagner.

Source Nu.nl
https://www.nu.nl/spanningen-oekraine/6254203/weer-ruzie-tussen-wagner-en-kremlin-front-stort-in-als-wij-ons-terugtrekken.html

I recall months back hearing that Wagner command were consolidating power in Moscow. Some people suggested this was likely leading up to a power grab or potential coup. Putin, or someone close to Putin, are probably eager to prevent this and thus feeding Wagner goons into the wood chipper and pulling shenanigans like this.

Tomn
Aug 23, 2007

And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

RBA-Wintrow posted:

I'm seeing some speculation in Dutch media that the ammunition delivery to Wagner PMC has been halted again to create an "offramp" for Putin. If Wagner is forced to retreat they can be accused of betraying the war effort and the Russian army needs to withdraw "to protect Russia." Maximum scapegoating Wagner.

Source Nu.nl
https://www.nu.nl/spanningen-oekraine/6254203/weer-ruzie-tussen-wagner-en-kremlin-front-stort-in-als-wij-ons-terugtrekken.html

Action-Bastard posted:

I recall months back hearing that Wagner command were consolidating power in Moscow. Some people suggested this was likely leading up to a power grab or potential coup. Putin, or someone close to Putin, are probably eager to prevent this and thus feeding Wagner goons into the wood chipper and pulling shenanigans like this.

I really doubt these.

I keep harping on it, but Wagner is a really small organization compared to the Russian Army at large. They spend a lot of effort on publicity because Prigozhin is using them to play power games by trying to impress Putin, but they're not the elite spearhead of Russia or really all THAT important to the overall functioning of the Russian military, nor do they really possess the force or the political connections to pull off a coup (especially now that all signs point to Putin just generally being unimpressed with Wagner's progress thus far). It would be somewhat strange for Wagner to become the lynchpin of a full retreat - way too many questions would be asked about why exactly one small mercenary company was allowed to be the hinge of battle. And Putin being the paranoid gently caress he is may not be able to conduct a war successfully but he is terribly good at ensuring internal stability and rule one of internal stability is "Don't let some fucker with a private army set up shop in the capital." Doesn't actually require whittling down the private army, just don't let them into the capital.

Besides, Occam's Razor is in effect - there are easier answers to why the ammo deliveries stopped. For starters, as I understand it they didn't actually STOP sending ammo, they just started sending Wagner the same ammo allotment everyone else in the Russian military gets. That suggests that Putin was trying a gamble on seeing if Wagner could deliver results if supplied the way Prigozhin asked for, and has decided that the gamble wasn't paying off. Alternatively, they're sending less ammo because there's less ammo to go around. Both seem a lot more likely than "The war is going to suddenly end in a retreat or a coup," especially given that Russia seems to be slowly, but surely cracking Bahkmut (for all the good it'll do them).

Fragrag
Aug 3, 2007
The Worst Admin Ever bashes You in the head with his banhammer. It is smashed into the body, an unrecognizable mass! You have been struck down.
Ukraine is playing one hell of a gambit by playing chicken with Wagner over Bakhmut.

Power Khan
Aug 20, 2011

by Fritz the Horse

Vahakyla posted:

Yeah the Wehrmacht has a surprising amount of punishments handed out in early war for war crimes by themselves. It's the Eastern Front that starts the vicious loop and has the Army just ratcheting themselves into progressively more horrible poo poo with prisoners.

Fyi, it's not an evolutionary process, but built into the war in the east by design. There's the Hungerplan and the military planning of what to do with POWs went hand in hand with it. The key parole here is "Keine Kameraden", it was fully intended to let them die by starvation from the outset. Cadres were prepared that the Kriegsgerichtsbarkeit was mostly suspended (~May 1941), and a series of increasingly radical orders was put in place to acclimatise officers to the new "realites". The whole war in the east was conceptualized as a war of extermination from the outset. There was basically no preparation of field kitches or any infrastructure for soviet pows, unlike for example the french and british soldiers in the Westfeldzug.

What happened in the next months after that is a monument to stupidity (going in tandem with "yup, we're going to kill all the citydwellers in UA and Belarus by starvation"). It turns out that you cannot put tens of thousands of pows on a plot of grass, put wire and machineguns around them and let them die. There were many such places with increddible numbers of people in the open. Not that they didn't try to go through with starving them to death, but it caused epidemics that started to affect rear areas and logistic hubs in such a way that the OKH started to write angry letters. The failure of a swift victory in 1941 put the whole thing off the table and the rest is history.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


Flyinglemur posted:

Been reading a lot about how Russia won't be able to go much farther than Bakhmut and that Ukraine will be able to turn that into a counter offensive. Someone good with land fighting please explain to this Bubblehead how that works. I assume that the thinking is that Russia has used a lot of troops to take it and won't be able to hold it, but why were they able to take it then?
My internal comparison is that - hopefully - the current situation with Bakhmut is similar to the situation last year with Sievierodonetsk. Russia still has not fully mobilized, so they are not getting large amounts of manpower every month Only Wagner through prisoners was able to mobilize some additional manpower. That limited manpower is all being thrown into the fight at Bakhmut and pulled from other places on the front towards the fight in Bakhmut. This enables them to make some headway there, but it also weakens the front everywhere else. At some point, either Russia mobilizes additional manpower or they become vulnerable to a counteroffensive in those other areas, similar to what happened in Kharkiv.

DTurtle fucked around with this message at 00:20 on Mar 7, 2023

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

bulletsponge13 posted:

The simple example is when your unit doesn't have the means or ability to secure or safeguard EPWs- an example everyone knows is from Saving Private Ryan, the Nazi that they let go. Legally, they were completely in the right to execute him. If you cannot secure and safeguard them, what would you expect them to do?

That isn’t how the law works AT ALL. If you cannot secure or transport POWs, you do not execute the unarmed POWs. This isn’t even laws 101, it’s remedial law 050 or something.

bulletsponge13
Apr 28, 2010

mlmp08 posted:

That isn’t how the law works AT ALL. If you cannot secure or transport POWs, you do not execute the unarmed POWs. This isn’t even laws 101, it’s remedial law 050 or something.

Tell it to the multiple JAG briefings I got on it, starting in Basic :shrug:

I'm not claiming to be an expert.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

bulletsponge13 posted:

Tell it to the multiple JAG briefings I got on it, starting in Basic :shrug:

I think you misunderstood the briefings.

bulletsponge13
Apr 28, 2010

mlmp08 posted:

I think you misunderstood the briefings.

Not when they specified exact specifics, I doubt it. It's not a carte blanche thing, and it's not something to be considered first choice.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I'm only going off what I was taught.

E- It also wouldn't be the first time the Army taught me stuff completely wrong.

bulletsponge13 fucked around with this message at 00:46 on Mar 7, 2023

McNally
Sep 13, 2007

Ask me about Proposition 305


Do you like muskets?

bulletsponge13 posted:

E- It also wouldn't be the first time the Army taught me stuff completely wrong.

I completely fail to understand why this wasn't the default assumption.

No, it had to be bulletsponge who was wrong.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

bulletsponge13 posted:

Not when they specified exact specifics, I doubt it. It's not a carte blanche thing, and it's not something to be considered first choice.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I'm only going off what I was taught.

I think you are either misremembering or this was a brief by SFC Warcirme, the PSG who lucked into giving a brief rather than a briefing by a qualified JAG or legal advisor.

I've received the briefs generally, and in direct preparation to deploying, and I have never, ever been told that it's okay to execute prisoners. It has always been the exact opposite. People even asked "What if I can't bring 100 prisoners with me who all surrender, can I just kill them?" and the answer is not just no, but an emphatic no by the JAG.
I've heard NCOs suggest that war criming is easier, sure, but I have never heard a JAG in a briefing even approach this line of argument. All of my pre-deployment briefs were by qualified JAGs or civilian legal advisors, except when I deployed as an individual, in which case I get zero brief at all aside from reading some slides, but the slides did tell me not to execute POWs or kill people who are non-combatants. On the other hand, for generic garrison training or exercise training, I've seen some really hosed up "legal briefs" put on by LTs or NCOs who aren't in the legal profession, and one of those times the BDE CDR had to take over entirely cause you had an LT figuratively shooting from the hip about how and when to shoot combatants and how to (mis)treat civilians.

This is a USMC LOAC handout:
https://www.trngcmd.marines.mil/Portals/207/Docs/TBS/B130936%20Law%20of%20War%20and%20Rules%20Of%20Engagement.pdf

This is the ICRC summary:
https://www.icrc.org/en/document/prisoners-war-what-you-need-know

The US Army and Marines tl;dr version: https://armypubs.army.mil/epubs/DR_pubs/DR_a/pdf/web/ARN19354_FM%206-27%20_C1_FINAL_WEB_v2.pdf
code:
This publication summarizes the law and practice under LOAC for legal and operational practitioners of the
Army and Marine Corps. It draws from treaties to which the United States is a party, customary international
law, the DOD Law of War Manual, and other references describing long-standing U.S. military practice. It
has precedent in the first comprehensive publication of the U.S. military regulation of LOAC, prepared by
Professor Francis Lieber, and approved by President Lincoln in April 1863 in General Orders Number 100.
The basic LOAC rules and principles applicable to Soldiers and Marines can be summarized by the following
basic Soldier’s Rules (see AR 350-1)/Marine Corps Basic Principles (see MCO 3300.4A), developed by
Army and Marine judge advocates to train Soldiers and Marines to conform to LOAC standards applicable
in all military operations:
 Fight only enemy combatants.
 Do not harm enemies who surrender. Disarm the enemy and turn them over to your superiors.
 Do not kill or torture enemy prisoners of war or other detainees.
 Collect and care for the wounded, whether friend or foe.
 Do not attack medical personnel, facilities, or equipment.
 Destroy no more than the mission requires.
 Treat all civilians humanely.
 Do not steal. Respect private property and possessions.
 Do your best to prevent violations of the law of war.
 Report all violations of the law of war to your superiors.
Note that Commanders are NOT allowed to execute prisoners to enable their unit's onward movement or mission:
code:
BEGINNING OF CAPTIVITY
3-50. Military commanders have an affirmative duty to take the measures within their ability and appropriate
to the circumstances, to protect POWs captured by their unit until they are properly transferred to higher or
other competent authority. Commanders may not execute POWs to preserve their unit or to facilitate their
unit’s movement.
Examples of Grave Breaches of the Geneva Protocol:
code:
Grave Breaches of the Geneva Conventions
8-15. To reflect the particular seriousness of some violations, the Geneva Conventions characterize certain
breaches as “grave.” These include willful killing of protected persons; engaging in torture or inhuman
treatment, such as biological experiments; willfully causing great suffering or serious injury to body or health;
And the note that superior orders to kill POWs or people who are hors de combat is not a defense:
code:
Superior Orders
8-75. The fact that a person acted pursuant to orders of his or her Government or of a superior does not
relieve that person from responsibility under international law, provided it was possible in fact for that person
to make a moral choice (see DOD Law of War Manual, 18.22.4). Under the RCM and MMC, it is a defense
to any offense that the accused was acting pursuant to orders unless the accused knew the orders to be
unlawful or a person of ordinary sense and understanding would have known the orders to be unlawful (RCM
916(d); MMC pt. II, Rule 916(d)). An order requiring the performance of a military duty or act may be
inferred to be lawful, and it is disobeyed at the peril of the subordinate. This inference does not apply to a
patently illegal order, such as one that directs the commission of a crime (for example, an order directing the
murder of a civilian, a noncombatant, or a combatant who is hors de combat, or the abuse or torture of a
prisoner) (see, for example, MCM pt. IV, para. 14c(2)(a)(i)). The fact that an offense was committed pursuant
to superior orders may also be considered as mitigation to reduce the level of punishment (see, for example,
United States v. Sawada, V U.N. Law Reports 7-8, 13-22; ICTY art. 7(4)).
If it's a situation where 200 people tried to surrender to 4 guys, who cannot possibly secure 200 people, those 4 people are not allowed to execute the POWs. The 200 people trying (and failing) to be detained as prisoners of war are still hors de combat, which makes them non-combatants, and they cannot be executed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hors_de_combat Retreating alone is not an automatic hors de combat situation.

In some cases in Iraq, there were formations that very clearly signaled surrender (flags visible, turrets turned backward, weapons piled and abandoned), and the troops were allowed to leave on foot or in unarmed trucks. It would be unlawful for an apache pilot witnessing this to gun them all down.

There are some other cases where the simple act of no longer touching a weapon doesn't make you hors de combat. If an enemy soldier is armed with an RPG, shoots it at you, throws the tube down, and runs for cover, that's not the same as laying down their arms for the sake of surrender.

mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 01:13 on Mar 7, 2023

NJersey
Dec 1, 2008
Back in my day we just tied all 200 POWs to trees using the leg lock method and moved on....

Woodchip
Mar 28, 2010
I heard Sgt York captured the Kaiser.

Saukkis
May 16, 2003

Unless I'm on the inside curve pointing straight at oncoming traffic the high beams stay on and I laugh at your puny protest flashes.
I am Most Important Man. Most Important Man in the World.

mlmp08 posted:

If it's a situation where 200 people tried to surrender to 4 guys, who cannot possibly secure 200 people, those 4 people are not allowed to execute the POWs. The 200 people trying (and failing) to be detained as prisoners of war are still hors de combat, which makes them non-combatants, and they cannot be executed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hors_de_combat Retreating alone is not an automatic hors de combat situation.

It's an interesting question how to practically handle that situation. I guess the minimum you could do is remove the bolts from all of the weapons and take them with you, then possibly hide them somewhere.

You probably wouldn't want the prisoners to just leave their weapons laying around and walk away. Maybe field disassemble the weapons and carry them separated towards back of the lines.

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

✨sparkle and shine✨


I think it’s great if Russia has a hard time sustaining more offensives since then maybe fewer people die for no loving reason, but I have a question: what does it mean when a military analyst refers to “endemic personnel and equipment constraints”? That it’s hard for anyone to support soldiers and vehicles operating in Ukraine? (That doesn’t seem to be correct, but I don’t know what else it could mean.)

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Subjunctive posted:

I think it’s great if Russia has a hard time sustaining more offensives since then maybe fewer people die for no loving reason, but I have a question: what does it mean when a military analyst refers to “endemic personnel and equipment constraints”? That it’s hard for anyone to support soldiers and vehicles operating in Ukraine? (That doesn’t seem to be correct, but I don’t know what else it could mean.)

It means they have shortages of trained soldiers and useful equipment throughout the Russian armed forces. "Endemic" means it is present everywhere, not in isolated places.

Midjack
Dec 24, 2007



bulletsponge13 posted:

It just looks like the Ukrainians are going for a strategy some fighters adopt- let your opponent tire themselves out beating on your guard.

The good old rope-a-dope.

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

✨sparkle and shine✨

Deteriorata posted:

It means they have shortages of trained soldiers and useful equipment throughout the Russian armed forces. "Endemic" means it is present everywhere, not in isolated places.

Thanks, that makes sense.

Cugel the Clever
Apr 5, 2009
I LOVE AMERICA AND CAPITALISM DESPITE BEING POOR AS FUCK. I WILL NEVER RETIRE BUT HERE'S ANOTHER 200$ FOR UKRAINE, SLAVA

Fragrag posted:

Ukraine is playing one hell of a gambit by playing chicken with Wagner over Bakhmut.
I don't think chicken is the right analogy as it doesn't look like Ukraine is putting everything on the table (assuming speculation is true). Scuttlebutt has it that, as hard-pressed as Ukrainian forces look to be, it's intended to just be a particularly intense holding action to wait out Russia's ability to wage an offensive. If AFU can hold with a thin line while prepping a counterpunch with fresh and well-trained forces, it stands a better chance of making gains this spring. Success or failure of the defensive operation isn't predicated on retention of Bakhmut, so much as on retention of sufficient offensive-capable forces for the next stage of operations.

Or they're pulling a Finland, are on their absolute last legs, and are posturing to maximize their position in behind-the-scenes negotiations. Who knows! The fog of war is intense and no one who actually has meaningful insight is going to be posting about it here. I'd wager, though, that Western countries wouldn't be increasing their commitments without a high level of confidence in Ukraine's ability to make effective use of the new gear.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



I'm pretty sure it's not that last one if only because they just got all this new poo poo. I could certainly buy a certain amount of artful deception in how much regular force they have but I'm quite sure they'd stall for the new gear to get a try out, at least.

Lum_
Jun 5, 2006
Most of the stories from Bakhmut have noted that Ukrainian troops are rotated in on a weekly or biweekly basis. They could still be fairly brittle but it's unlikely.

(of course a week of enduring human wave assaults in trench warfare is nothing to sneeze at, and one commander this week alluded to a 30% survival rate)

Still, Russia is suffering *considerably* more losses than Ukraine, and the manpower differential isn't as much as you'd think -- Ukraine is almost 100% mobilized while Russia is still trying to do something useful with the partial mobilization from late last year.

Ukraine has been pretty open that they're putting together an armor division with NATO equipment to spearhead an offensive and it will probably rip through whatever line it's pointed at.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/03/06/ukraine-is-building-up-its-forces-for-an-offensive

quote:

Ukraine’s army is being transformed as a result. The bulk of its hardware is still of Soviet origin. But whereas the ratio of Ukrainian to Western kit stood at five to one at the end of last year, that is expected to fall to five to two as the aid flows in. In other words, almost a third of Ukraine’s army will soon have nato-standard equipment. General Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top officer, hopes that he will eventually have three new army corps at his disposal, each with six brigades, and each comprising more than 20,000 men.

A Russian offensive that began in late January was intended, in part, to force Ukraine to commit these reserves, thereby making it much harder to mount a counter-offensive. In recent days, Russian soldiers and mercenaries have advanced deeper into Bakhmut, a town in Donetsk province that has been under Russian assault since last summer. But the battle for the town has resulted in far greater Russian losses than Ukrainian ones. And more importantly General Zaluzhny has avoided the obvious trap.

Instead of throwing sizeable reserves into Bakhmut to save the city, which is of far greater symbolic than military value, he has sent troops abroad to train on the new equipment.

Lum_ fucked around with this message at 08:15 on Mar 7, 2023

Pikehead
Dec 3, 2006

Looking for WMDs, PM if you have A+ grade stuff
Fun Shoe
It looks like Ukraine is deploying the JDAM-ER kits they received earlier in the year with fantastic results:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/wing-kits-for-ukraines-jdam-bombs-would-be-a-big-problem-for-russia

https://twitter.com/intermarium24/status/1632511739018334215

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers






that is a fantastic response.

".....oooohh."

Geisladisk
Sep 15, 2007


Are these Ukrainians filming? Because it sure looked like they were expecting that, considering two of them were filming the exact place.

GEEKABALL
May 30, 2011

Throw out your hands!!
Stick out your tush!!
Hands on your hips
Give them a push!!
Fun Shoe

Alan Smithee posted:

just imagine Cyril from Archer yelling "SUPRESSING FIRE" as he does it

Fucker, you made milk shoot out my nose.

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Geisladisk posted:

Are these Ukrainians filming? Because it sure looked like they were expecting that, considering two of them were filming the exact place.

Yes, and yes.

Pine Cone Jones
Dec 6, 2009

You throw me the acorn, I throw you the whip!

Geisladisk posted:

Are these Ukrainians filming? Because it sure looked like they were expecting that, considering two of them were filming the exact place.

They're likely the ones who called for fire.

Stubb Dogg
Feb 16, 2007

loskat naamalle

Ataxerxes posted:

Operation Flashpoint had a Finnish Defence Force mod where the first missions had you as a UN peacekeeper in modern gear and later ones where you are a mobilised reservist tasked to crew a Maxim. I think those were in the books up to the early 90's or so.
Not to derail the thread, but higher ups in real FDF were somewhat salty about the mod name but they couldn't really do much about it. Rank and file were massive fans of the mod though and supported it in any way they could without getting into trouble, like letting us record actual guns at the range etc. For example, technically as part of the Finno-Soviet arms sales agreements, interior of BMP-2 was a state secret and taking photos of it was violation of the deal.

In the end couple of younger mod team members got conscripted and spent their 12 months basically making models and scripts for VBS, the military version of ArmA so guess they weren't too pissed off about the name.

BeastOfExmoor
Aug 19, 2003

I will be gone, but not forever.

Geisladisk posted:

Are these Ukrainians filming? Because it sure looked like they were expecting that, considering two of them were filming the exact place.

Seems like a pretty good sign when you can call in fire and know where and when it'll come in well enough to break out the camera.

Pine Cone Jones
Dec 6, 2009

You throw me the acorn, I throw you the whip!

BeastOfExmoor posted:

Seems like a pretty good sign when you can call in fire and know where and when it'll come in well enough to break out the camera.

Generally you should have some idea of time to target or what's on station if things are reasonably organized.

Crini
Sep 2, 2011

Pine Cone Jones posted:

Generally you should have some idea of time to target or what's on station if things are reasonably organized.

Do we know what it was? Artillery? Air strike? HIMARS? Something else?

Duzzy Funlop
Jan 13, 2010

Hi there, would you like to try some spicy products?

The report says extended range JDAM, so the brand new air-dropped toy-kits. From the shockwave, I'd guess they hit an ammo dump and triggered a secondary blast with the main ordnance.

/edit: come to think of it, i have no idea what size of Ukrainian ordnance the JDAM package is compatible with, soooo :shrug:

Still looks like an ammo dump to me

Duzzy Funlop fucked around with this message at 19:48 on Mar 7, 2023

Cimber
Feb 3, 2014

Lum_ posted:

Most of the stories from Bakhmut have noted that Ukrainian troops are rotated in on a weekly or biweekly basis. They could still be fairly brittle but it's unlikely.

(of course a week of enduring human wave assaults in trench warfare is nothing to sneeze at, and one commander this week alluded to a 30% survival rate)

Still, Russia is suffering *considerably* more losses than Ukraine, and the manpower differential isn't as much as you'd think -- Ukraine is almost 100% mobilized while Russia is still trying to do something useful with the partial mobilization from late last year.

Ukraine has been pretty open that they're putting together an armor division with NATO equipment to spearhead an offensive and it will probably rip through whatever line it's pointed at.


If we could war game for a moment, where do you see the best option for Ukraining counteroffensives? How about starting north of Polohy and driving south, bypassing the town and moving towards the Sea of Azoz along to T0819 highway, splitting the front in two. Then blow the bridges into Crimea to disrupt the logistics and putting all the troops there in a pocket without resupply. Move southwest with the armor force while infantry holds the line towards the northeast?

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

BeastOfExmoor posted:

Seems like a pretty good sign when you can call in fire and know where and when it'll come in well enough to break out the camera.

Idk about how Ukraine is doing things but knowing when the rounds will land is pretty important and I would think routine.

For NATO forces a JDAM attack like that will likely be controlled by a JTAC (Joint Terminal Attack Controller, previously known as a FAC or Forward Air Controller). When controlling the engagement the JTAC will specify time on target to the plane. By the way, Joint Fires is the concept that in a battle you are likely to want a combination of air-delivered, land and possibly naval munitions at the same time and in a coordinated way.

The JTAC speaks straight to the plane providing CAS, gives them the target mission, requests a specific munition, and makes sure they're not conflicting with other air/aviation assets, artillery fire missions, and ground forces. The JTAC and more widely the FST will tell the ground troops when there are rounds in the air and call when impact is expected.

There are sample instructions here on e.g. page 46
https://info.publicintelligence.net/MTTP-JFIRE.pdf

It's possible the plane might just do its own thing but they would still tell the JTAC when the munition will land.

For more basic artillery, GMLRS or naval gunfire missions, time on target is one way to call in fire, but more normally, when a fire mission is ordered, as part of the read-back from the joint fires cell the observer will get a time of flight for the rounds. When it's time to blow stuff up, the observer says to fire down the radio, hears "shot" back, and using his Casio F91W times when the rounds will hit the target. Everyone then gets their cameras out for the explosion.

Lum_
Jun 5, 2006

Cimber posted:

If we could war game for a moment, where do you see the best option for Ukraining counteroffensives? How about starting north of Polohy and driving south, bypassing the town and moving towards the Sea of Azoz along to T0819 highway, splitting the front in two. Then blow the bridges into Crimea to disrupt the logistics and putting all the troops there in a pocket without resupply. Move southwest with the armor force while infantry holds the line towards the northeast?

Honestly the best option is "the weakest point in the line", any breakthrough would be catastrophic for the Russians.

Vengarr
Jun 17, 2010

Smashed before noon
I have extensive war gaming experience, but I need to consult the Codex Astartes before I can give recommendations

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Lum_ posted:

Honestly the best option is "the weakest point in the line", any breakthrough would be catastrophic for the Russians.

IMHO Russians have enough bulk to block any "weakest point" that seems likely, so it has to be a fake-out followed by the actual attack somewhere else.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



Vengarr posted:

I have extensive war gaming experience, but I need to consult the Codex Astartes before I can give recommendations
Russia is low on metal boxes.

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Carth Dookie
Jan 28, 2013

Cimber posted:

If we could war game for a moment, where do you see the best option for Ukraining counteroffensives? How about starting north of Polohy and driving south, bypassing the town and moving towards the Sea of Azoz along to T0819 highway, splitting the front in two. Then blow the bridges into Crimea to disrupt the logistics and putting all the troops there in a pocket without resupply. Move southwest with the armor force while infantry holds the line towards the northeast?

I think south is likely. Just bottling Crimea to the point that Russia can sit there eating ferried MREs and not much else would be a huge result for the first part of a counter attack.

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