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I do understand that there is a lot of conjecture, but I also know that I have zero experience in tactical poo poo involving land stuff, so I appreciate the lessons
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# ? Mar 6, 2023 22:07 |
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# ? Jun 5, 2024 06:18 |
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RBA-Wintrow posted:I'm seeing some speculation in Dutch media that the ammunition delivery to Wagner PMC has been halted again to create an "offramp" for Putin. If Wagner is forced to retreat they can be accused of betraying the war effort and the Russian army needs to withdraw "to protect Russia." Maximum scapegoating Wagner. I recall months back hearing that Wagner command were consolidating power in Moscow. Some people suggested this was likely leading up to a power grab or potential coup. Putin, or someone close to Putin, are probably eager to prevent this and thus feeding Wagner goons into the wood chipper and pulling shenanigans like this.
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# ? Mar 6, 2023 22:14 |
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RBA-Wintrow posted:I'm seeing some speculation in Dutch media that the ammunition delivery to Wagner PMC has been halted again to create an "offramp" for Putin. If Wagner is forced to retreat they can be accused of betraying the war effort and the Russian army needs to withdraw "to protect Russia." Maximum scapegoating Wagner. Action-Bastard posted:I recall months back hearing that Wagner command were consolidating power in Moscow. Some people suggested this was likely leading up to a power grab or potential coup. Putin, or someone close to Putin, are probably eager to prevent this and thus feeding Wagner goons into the wood chipper and pulling shenanigans like this. I really doubt these. I keep harping on it, but Wagner is a really small organization compared to the Russian Army at large. They spend a lot of effort on publicity because Prigozhin is using them to play power games by trying to impress Putin, but they're not the elite spearhead of Russia or really all THAT important to the overall functioning of the Russian military, nor do they really possess the force or the political connections to pull off a coup (especially now that all signs point to Putin just generally being unimpressed with Wagner's progress thus far). It would be somewhat strange for Wagner to become the lynchpin of a full retreat - way too many questions would be asked about why exactly one small mercenary company was allowed to be the hinge of battle. And Putin being the paranoid gently caress he is may not be able to conduct a war successfully but he is terribly good at ensuring internal stability and rule one of internal stability is "Don't let some fucker with a private army set up shop in the capital." Doesn't actually require whittling down the private army, just don't let them into the capital. Besides, Occam's Razor is in effect - there are easier answers to why the ammo deliveries stopped. For starters, as I understand it they didn't actually STOP sending ammo, they just started sending Wagner the same ammo allotment everyone else in the Russian military gets. That suggests that Putin was trying a gamble on seeing if Wagner could deliver results if supplied the way Prigozhin asked for, and has decided that the gamble wasn't paying off. Alternatively, they're sending less ammo because there's less ammo to go around. Both seem a lot more likely than "The war is going to suddenly end in a retreat or a coup," especially given that Russia seems to be slowly, but surely cracking Bahkmut (for all the good it'll do them).
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# ? Mar 6, 2023 22:40 |
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Ukraine is playing one hell of a gambit by playing chicken with Wagner over Bakhmut.
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# ? Mar 6, 2023 22:57 |
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Vahakyla posted:Yeah the Wehrmacht has a surprising amount of punishments handed out in early war for war crimes by themselves. It's the Eastern Front that starts the vicious loop and has the Army just ratcheting themselves into progressively more horrible poo poo with prisoners. Fyi, it's not an evolutionary process, but built into the war in the east by design. There's the Hungerplan and the military planning of what to do with POWs went hand in hand with it. The key parole here is "Keine Kameraden", it was fully intended to let them die by starvation from the outset. Cadres were prepared that the Kriegsgerichtsbarkeit was mostly suspended (~May 1941), and a series of increasingly radical orders was put in place to acclimatise officers to the new "realites". The whole war in the east was conceptualized as a war of extermination from the outset. There was basically no preparation of field kitches or any infrastructure for soviet pows, unlike for example the french and british soldiers in the Westfeldzug. What happened in the next months after that is a monument to stupidity (going in tandem with "yup, we're going to kill all the citydwellers in UA and Belarus by starvation"). It turns out that you cannot put tens of thousands of pows on a plot of grass, put wire and machineguns around them and let them die. There were many such places with increddible numbers of people in the open. Not that they didn't try to go through with starving them to death, but it caused epidemics that started to affect rear areas and logistic hubs in such a way that the OKH started to write angry letters. The failure of a swift victory in 1941 put the whole thing off the table and the rest is history.
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# ? Mar 6, 2023 23:02 |
Flyinglemur posted:Been reading a lot about how Russia won't be able to go much farther than Bakhmut and that Ukraine will be able to turn that into a counter offensive. Someone good with land fighting please explain to this Bubblehead how that works. I assume that the thinking is that Russia has used a lot of troops to take it and won't be able to hold it, but why were they able to take it then? DTurtle fucked around with this message at 00:20 on Mar 7, 2023 |
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# ? Mar 6, 2023 23:57 |
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bulletsponge13 posted:The simple example is when your unit doesn't have the means or ability to secure or safeguard EPWs- an example everyone knows is from Saving Private Ryan, the Nazi that they let go. Legally, they were completely in the right to execute him. If you cannot secure and safeguard them, what would you expect them to do? That isn’t how the law works AT ALL. If you cannot secure or transport POWs, you do not execute the unarmed POWs. This isn’t even laws 101, it’s remedial law 050 or something.
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 00:05 |
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mlmp08 posted:That isn’t how the law works AT ALL. If you cannot secure or transport POWs, you do not execute the unarmed POWs. This isn’t even laws 101, it’s remedial law 050 or something. Tell it to the multiple JAG briefings I got on it, starting in Basic I'm not claiming to be an expert.
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 00:12 |
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bulletsponge13 posted:Tell it to the multiple JAG briefings I got on it, starting in Basic I think you misunderstood the briefings.
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 00:15 |
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mlmp08 posted:I think you misunderstood the briefings. Not when they specified exact specifics, I doubt it. It's not a carte blanche thing, and it's not something to be considered first choice. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I'm only going off what I was taught. E- It also wouldn't be the first time the Army taught me stuff completely wrong. bulletsponge13 fucked around with this message at 00:46 on Mar 7, 2023 |
# ? Mar 7, 2023 00:26 |
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bulletsponge13 posted:E- It also wouldn't be the first time the Army taught me stuff completely wrong. I completely fail to understand why this wasn't the default assumption. No, it had to be bulletsponge who was wrong.
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 00:48 |
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bulletsponge13 posted:Not when they specified exact specifics, I doubt it. It's not a carte blanche thing, and it's not something to be considered first choice. I think you are either misremembering or this was a brief by SFC Warcirme, the PSG who lucked into giving a brief rather than a briefing by a qualified JAG or legal advisor. I've received the briefs generally, and in direct preparation to deploying, and I have never, ever been told that it's okay to execute prisoners. It has always been the exact opposite. People even asked "What if I can't bring 100 prisoners with me who all surrender, can I just kill them?" and the answer is not just no, but an emphatic no by the JAG. I've heard NCOs suggest that war criming is easier, sure, but I have never heard a JAG in a briefing even approach this line of argument. All of my pre-deployment briefs were by qualified JAGs or civilian legal advisors, except when I deployed as an individual, in which case I get zero brief at all aside from reading some slides, but the slides did tell me not to execute POWs or kill people who are non-combatants. On the other hand, for generic garrison training or exercise training, I've seen some really hosed up "legal briefs" put on by LTs or NCOs who aren't in the legal profession, and one of those times the BDE CDR had to take over entirely cause you had an LT figuratively shooting from the hip about how and when to shoot combatants and how to (mis)treat civilians. This is a USMC LOAC handout: https://www.trngcmd.marines.mil/Portals/207/Docs/TBS/B130936%20Law%20of%20War%20and%20Rules%20Of%20Engagement.pdf This is the ICRC summary: https://www.icrc.org/en/document/prisoners-war-what-you-need-know The US Army and Marines tl;dr version: https://armypubs.army.mil/epubs/DR_pubs/DR_a/pdf/web/ARN19354_FM%206-27%20_C1_FINAL_WEB_v2.pdf code:
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In some cases in Iraq, there were formations that very clearly signaled surrender (flags visible, turrets turned backward, weapons piled and abandoned), and the troops were allowed to leave on foot or in unarmed trucks. It would be unlawful for an apache pilot witnessing this to gun them all down. There are some other cases where the simple act of no longer touching a weapon doesn't make you hors de combat. If an enemy soldier is armed with an RPG, shoots it at you, throws the tube down, and runs for cover, that's not the same as laying down their arms for the sake of surrender. mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 01:13 on Mar 7, 2023 |
# ? Mar 7, 2023 01:08 |
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Back in my day we just tied all 200 POWs to trees using the leg lock method and moved on....
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 01:47 |
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I heard Sgt York captured the Kaiser.
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 02:13 |
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mlmp08 posted:If it's a situation where 200 people tried to surrender to 4 guys, who cannot possibly secure 200 people, those 4 people are not allowed to execute the POWs. The 200 people trying (and failing) to be detained as prisoners of war are still hors de combat, which makes them non-combatants, and they cannot be executed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hors_de_combat Retreating alone is not an automatic hors de combat situation. It's an interesting question how to practically handle that situation. I guess the minimum you could do is remove the bolts from all of the weapons and take them with you, then possibly hide them somewhere. You probably wouldn't want the prisoners to just leave their weapons laying around and walk away. Maybe field disassemble the weapons and carry them separated towards back of the lines.
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 03:12 |
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Pine Cone Jones posted:https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1632580401653772291?t=2aD9uJeL80IXz5PZW9pN0w&s=19 I think it’s great if Russia has a hard time sustaining more offensives since then maybe fewer people die for no loving reason, but I have a question: what does it mean when a military analyst refers to “endemic personnel and equipment constraints”? That it’s hard for anyone to support soldiers and vehicles operating in Ukraine? (That doesn’t seem to be correct, but I don’t know what else it could mean.)
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 04:08 |
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Subjunctive posted:I think it’s great if Russia has a hard time sustaining more offensives since then maybe fewer people die for no loving reason, but I have a question: what does it mean when a military analyst refers to “endemic personnel and equipment constraints”? That it’s hard for anyone to support soldiers and vehicles operating in Ukraine? (That doesn’t seem to be correct, but I don’t know what else it could mean.) It means they have shortages of trained soldiers and useful equipment throughout the Russian armed forces. "Endemic" means it is present everywhere, not in isolated places.
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 04:10 |
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bulletsponge13 posted:It just looks like the Ukrainians are going for a strategy some fighters adopt- let your opponent tire themselves out beating on your guard. The good old rope-a-dope.
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 04:16 |
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Deteriorata posted:It means they have shortages of trained soldiers and useful equipment throughout the Russian armed forces. "Endemic" means it is present everywhere, not in isolated places. Thanks, that makes sense.
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 04:27 |
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Fragrag posted:Ukraine is playing one hell of a gambit by playing chicken with Wagner over Bakhmut. Or they're pulling a Finland, are on their absolute last legs, and are posturing to maximize their position in behind-the-scenes negotiations. Who knows! The fog of war is intense and no one who actually has meaningful insight is going to be posting about it here. I'd wager, though, that Western countries wouldn't be increasing their commitments without a high level of confidence in Ukraine's ability to make effective use of the new gear.
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 06:34 |
I'm pretty sure it's not that last one if only because they just got all this new poo poo. I could certainly buy a certain amount of artful deception in how much regular force they have but I'm quite sure they'd stall for the new gear to get a try out, at least.
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 06:49 |
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Most of the stories from Bakhmut have noted that Ukrainian troops are rotated in on a weekly or biweekly basis. They could still be fairly brittle but it's unlikely. (of course a week of enduring human wave assaults in trench warfare is nothing to sneeze at, and one commander this week alluded to a 30% survival rate) Still, Russia is suffering *considerably* more losses than Ukraine, and the manpower differential isn't as much as you'd think -- Ukraine is almost 100% mobilized while Russia is still trying to do something useful with the partial mobilization from late last year. Ukraine has been pretty open that they're putting together an armor division with NATO equipment to spearhead an offensive and it will probably rip through whatever line it's pointed at. https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/03/06/ukraine-is-building-up-its-forces-for-an-offensive quote:Ukraine’s army is being transformed as a result. The bulk of its hardware is still of Soviet origin. But whereas the ratio of Ukrainian to Western kit stood at five to one at the end of last year, that is expected to fall to five to two as the aid flows in. In other words, almost a third of Ukraine’s army will soon have nato-standard equipment. General Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top officer, hopes that he will eventually have three new army corps at his disposal, each with six brigades, and each comprising more than 20,000 men. Lum_ fucked around with this message at 08:15 on Mar 7, 2023 |
# ? Mar 7, 2023 08:04 |
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It looks like Ukraine is deploying the JDAM-ER kits they received earlier in the year with fantastic results: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/wing-kits-for-ukraines-jdam-bombs-would-be-a-big-problem-for-russia https://twitter.com/intermarium24/status/1632511739018334215
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 09:00 |
Pikehead posted:It looks like Ukraine is deploying the JDAM-ER kits they received earlier in the year with fantastic results: that is a fantastic response. ".....oooohh."
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 09:02 |
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Pikehead posted:It looks like Ukraine is deploying the JDAM-ER kits they received earlier in the year with fantastic results: Are these Ukrainians filming? Because it sure looked like they were expecting that, considering two of them were filming the exact place.
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 12:06 |
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Alan Smithee posted:just imagine Cyril from Archer yelling "SUPRESSING FIRE" as he does it Fucker, you made milk shoot out my nose.
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 13:07 |
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Geisladisk posted:Are these Ukrainians filming? Because it sure looked like they were expecting that, considering two of them were filming the exact place. Yes, and yes.
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 16:55 |
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Geisladisk posted:Are these Ukrainians filming? Because it sure looked like they were expecting that, considering two of them were filming the exact place. They're likely the ones who called for fire.
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 17:09 |
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Ataxerxes posted:Operation Flashpoint had a Finnish Defence Force mod where the first missions had you as a UN peacekeeper in modern gear and later ones where you are a mobilised reservist tasked to crew a Maxim. I think those were in the books up to the early 90's or so. In the end couple of younger mod team members got conscripted and spent their 12 months basically making models and scripts for VBS, the military version of ArmA so guess they weren't too pissed off about the name.
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 18:02 |
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Geisladisk posted:Are these Ukrainians filming? Because it sure looked like they were expecting that, considering two of them were filming the exact place. Seems like a pretty good sign when you can call in fire and know where and when it'll come in well enough to break out the camera.
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 18:42 |
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BeastOfExmoor posted:Seems like a pretty good sign when you can call in fire and know where and when it'll come in well enough to break out the camera. Generally you should have some idea of time to target or what's on station if things are reasonably organized.
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 18:49 |
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Pine Cone Jones posted:Generally you should have some idea of time to target or what's on station if things are reasonably organized. Do we know what it was? Artillery? Air strike? HIMARS? Something else?
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 19:21 |
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The report says extended range JDAM, so the brand new air-dropped toy-kits. From the shockwave, I'd guess they hit an ammo dump and triggered a secondary blast with the main ordnance. /edit: come to think of it, i have no idea what size of Ukrainian ordnance the JDAM package is compatible with, soooo Still looks like an ammo dump to me Duzzy Funlop fucked around with this message at 19:48 on Mar 7, 2023 |
# ? Mar 7, 2023 19:44 |
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Lum_ posted:Most of the stories from Bakhmut have noted that Ukrainian troops are rotated in on a weekly or biweekly basis. They could still be fairly brittle but it's unlikely. If we could war game for a moment, where do you see the best option for Ukraining counteroffensives? How about starting north of Polohy and driving south, bypassing the town and moving towards the Sea of Azoz along to T0819 highway, splitting the front in two. Then blow the bridges into Crimea to disrupt the logistics and putting all the troops there in a pocket without resupply. Move southwest with the armor force while infantry holds the line towards the northeast?
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 19:58 |
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BeastOfExmoor posted:Seems like a pretty good sign when you can call in fire and know where and when it'll come in well enough to break out the camera. Idk about how Ukraine is doing things but knowing when the rounds will land is pretty important and I would think routine. For NATO forces a JDAM attack like that will likely be controlled by a JTAC (Joint Terminal Attack Controller, previously known as a FAC or Forward Air Controller). When controlling the engagement the JTAC will specify time on target to the plane. By the way, Joint Fires is the concept that in a battle you are likely to want a combination of air-delivered, land and possibly naval munitions at the same time and in a coordinated way. The JTAC speaks straight to the plane providing CAS, gives them the target mission, requests a specific munition, and makes sure they're not conflicting with other air/aviation assets, artillery fire missions, and ground forces. The JTAC and more widely the FST will tell the ground troops when there are rounds in the air and call when impact is expected. There are sample instructions here on e.g. page 46 https://info.publicintelligence.net/MTTP-JFIRE.pdf It's possible the plane might just do its own thing but they would still tell the JTAC when the munition will land. For more basic artillery, GMLRS or naval gunfire missions, time on target is one way to call in fire, but more normally, when a fire mission is ordered, as part of the read-back from the joint fires cell the observer will get a time of flight for the rounds. When it's time to blow stuff up, the observer says to fire down the radio, hears "shot" back, and using his Casio F91W times when the rounds will hit the target. Everyone then gets their cameras out for the explosion.
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 20:13 |
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Cimber posted:If we could war game for a moment, where do you see the best option for Ukraining counteroffensives? How about starting north of Polohy and driving south, bypassing the town and moving towards the Sea of Azoz along to T0819 highway, splitting the front in two. Then blow the bridges into Crimea to disrupt the logistics and putting all the troops there in a pocket without resupply. Move southwest with the armor force while infantry holds the line towards the northeast? Honestly the best option is "the weakest point in the line", any breakthrough would be catastrophic for the Russians.
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 20:22 |
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I have extensive war gaming experience, but I need to consult the Codex Astartes before I can give recommendations
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 20:44 |
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Lum_ posted:Honestly the best option is "the weakest point in the line", any breakthrough would be catastrophic for the Russians. IMHO Russians have enough bulk to block any "weakest point" that seems likely, so it has to be a fake-out followed by the actual attack somewhere else.
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 20:51 |
Vengarr posted:I have extensive war gaming experience, but I need to consult the Codex Astartes before I can give recommendations
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 20:57 |
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# ? Jun 5, 2024 06:18 |
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Cimber posted:If we could war game for a moment, where do you see the best option for Ukraining counteroffensives? How about starting north of Polohy and driving south, bypassing the town and moving towards the Sea of Azoz along to T0819 highway, splitting the front in two. Then blow the bridges into Crimea to disrupt the logistics and putting all the troops there in a pocket without resupply. Move southwest with the armor force while infantry holds the line towards the northeast? I think south is likely. Just bottling Crimea to the point that Russia can sit there eating ferried MREs and not much else would be a huge result for the first part of a counter attack.
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# ? Mar 7, 2023 22:37 |