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The Finnish prime minister Sanna Marin had an unannounced visit to Ukraine where she sat down with president Zelenskyy and voiced her strong views on Russia committing war crimes.
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Mar 10, 2023 16:22
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According to the Institute for the Study of War, the offensive on Bakhmut has "paused": https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1634036267808686081 ISW Twitter thread posted:There have been no reports of Wagner fighters conducting offensive operations from eastern Bakhmut into central parts of the city since Russian forces captured all of eastern Bakhmut located east of the Bakhmutka River on March 7. Wagner Group fighters have been conducting highly attritional frontal assaults on eastern Bakhmut for nine months and are likely not prepared to conduct a crossing of the Bakhmutka River to the Bakhmut city center at this time. The frontal offensive on eastern Bakhmut likely consumed a significant amount of Wagner personnel and resources, although it is not yet evident whether this effort has caused Wagner’s offensive within Bakhmut itself to culminate. Ukrainian Eastern Grouping of Forces Spokesperson Serhiy Cherevaty stated on March 9 that an increasing number of unspecified Russian airborne and mechanized reinforcements have recently arrived at Bakhmut. The arrival of an increased number of conventional Russian forces to the area may suggest that Russian forces intend to offset the possible culmination of Wagner's offensive operations in Bakhmut with new conventional troops. Wagner Group fighters may also be conducting a temporary tactical pause to wait for these conventional Russian reinforcements and replenish themselves in preparation for costly operations within central Bakhmut.
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Mar 10, 2023 16:30
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Yet another regular FT briefing on the happenings of the war. Nothing new if you've been following the thread or some semblance of regular reporting elsewhere, but what I found notable was Kofman being quoted about “overstated argument of diminished counter-offensive potential” in the context of staying in Bakhmut, and a western estimate of 20-30k Russian casualties (unspecified, but reads like killed specifically) in the past 6 months, Wagner predominantly. There's a paywall, sadly. So does Kofman believe that the diminished counter-offensive potential argument is overstated or is Kofman being cited as an example of overstating the argument? I haven't checked in on his podcast comments in a while, but he seemed concerned that Bakhmut was starting to wear down on Ukraine's pool of good, experienced soldiers because the symbolic importance of the city had grown.
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Mar 10, 2023 16:33
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Eric Cantonese posted:There's a paywall, sadly. The former, and the piece doesn't expand on it, simply quotes and moves on. He was personally in Bakhmut recently, together with Konrad Muzyka and the rest of the gang.
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Mar 10, 2023 16:38
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Wait in order to capture the rest of bakhmut they'd have to do a river crossing? That's amazing
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Mar 10, 2023 16:40
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Wait in order to capture the rest of bakhmut they'd have to do a river crossing? That's amazing Hahaha yep, but looking at the map it seems like the river narrows a bit towards the north end of town (near Yahidne). Still, Russians get absolutely punished whenever they try to cross rivers in Ukraine. e: there’s a whole reservoir on the south end of town (Berkhivs'ke Reservoir). The river in town looks like it’s artificially constrained to its banks, and becomes little more than creeks/canals once it’s up to Yahidne. Icon Of Sin fucked around with this message at 16:47 on Mar 10, 2023 |
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Mar 10, 2023 16:43
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Kofman gives his takes on Bakhmut and the upcoming offensive following his visit to Bakhmut in this interview, released yesterday. He notes that he feels that the next line of defense is actually better defensive terrain than Bakhmut, which is something I was not aware of and the opposite of what I had thought, contributing to his analysis that Bakhmut should be abandoned. https://geopolitics-decanted.simplecast.com/episodes/myth-busting-with-michael-kofman-debunking-common-misperceptions-about-the-ukraine-war
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Mar 10, 2023 17:11
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DTurtle posted:According to the Institute for the Study of War, the offensive on Bakhmut has "paused" That's a strange takeaway considering the first bullet is: quote:Russian forces likely advanced northwest of Bakhmut on March 9 amidst a likely increased tempo of Russian offensive operations in the area. The Russian forces have been making headway around the edges and creating a pocket for a while now?
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Mar 10, 2023 17:19
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Now, lol, we're importing relatives to draft dodge them. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 10, 2023 17:27
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WarpedLichen posted:That's a strange takeaway considering the first bullet is: "Headway" aka inching forward while taking 5:1 losses which aren't sustainable.
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Mar 10, 2023 17:27
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MikusR posted:Note that it's not because they don't support the war, but because they don't want to be drafted. ^Fuk the hell off, no, it's very much because they don't support the loving war, maybe not everyone, but definitely mine ffffffffffuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck offffffff you absolute rear end and your explaining my own family and loved ones to me and how much they love vova poot poot how the gently caress do you think that poo poo is cool? Edgar Allen Ho fucked around with this message at 17:35 on Mar 10, 2023 |
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Mar 10, 2023 17:32
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WarpedLichen posted:That's a strange takeaway considering the first bullet is: I think the distinction is that the advancing forces are RuAF, not Wagner.
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Mar 10, 2023 17:38
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plogo posted:Kofman gives his takes on Bakhmut and the upcoming offensive following his visit to Bakhmut in this interview, released yesterday. He notes that he feels that the next line of defense is actually better defensive terrain than Bakhmut, which is something I was not aware of and the opposite of what I had thought, contributing to his analysis that Bakhmut should be abandoned. He doesn't seem too confident if it should be abandoned or not. I'm not a military guy but seems like if Kofman is visiting Bakhmut and so is the head of the ground forces, seems like it's still very defensible, which is why they're still there. I mean Ukrainians retreated from Lysychansk/Severodonetsk previously so it's not like they're against it if they feel like it's not sustainable to defend
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Mar 10, 2023 17:59
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:I think the distinction is that the advancing forces are RuAF, not Wagner. My read is also that the advance IN the town of Bakhmut has hit the river and is pausing. This doesn't mean that the advance in the surrounding areas has paused.
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Mar 10, 2023 18:26
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Finnish PM Sanna Marin who is today in Kyiv gave an interview in which she said that "we could have a discussion about giving F-18 Hornets to Ukraine". Now before anyone creams their pants, let's point out that a) Finland will start receiving F-35's in 2026 so it would be at earliest then and b) elections are next month so she's free to suggest anything. Additionally c) the Hornets are being replaced because otherwise they would require an expensive overhaul to expand their lifespan. Maybe it wouldn't have to be so thorough for Ukraine's immediate needs (they don't need to last for the next 30 years) but constant combat operations taxes equipment differently to peacetime patrolling. So it's a pretty useless thing to say aloud otherwise than "vote to support Ukraine!" Meanwhile Finnish president met with Joe Biden, so it was a double whammy for meeting with foreign presidents. A third one, His Excellency Erdogan, didn't see anyone Finnish butcommented through his publicist that Finns and Swedes still haven't done enough about PKK. 
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Mar 10, 2023 18:47
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plogo posted:Kofman gives his takes on Bakhmut and the upcoming offensive following his visit to Bakhmut in this interview, released yesterday. He notes that he feels that the next line of defense is actually better defensive terrain than Bakhmut, which is something I was not aware of and the opposite of what I had thought, contributing to his analysis that Bakhmut should be abandoned. I think his takes on Russian airpower in the vicinity are interesting. I'm surprised that most Ukrainian manpads can't engage targets at night? I thought stingers have a night sight option, wonder if that's not widely available. Combined with the Russian advantage in air to air combat, I wonder if the Russians will figure out a winning strategy for CAS for other fronts.
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Mar 10, 2023 18:51
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The Stingers I trained on (very, very briefly) over 20 years ago did not have a night sight. They did track a thermal signature, so I suppose if you pointed them at something at night it would get a lock, but spotting something at night would be challenging. It wouldn't surprise me if we had a night or thermal sight option now, but anti-aircraft was basically given $0 outside of Patriot and THAAD until the mid-2010's, so maybe it doesn't. If it doesn't, it's unlikely to get one unless Ukraine builds their own. The US is currently developing a new short-ranged air defense missile scheduled for ~2026 or so.
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Mar 10, 2023 19:25
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Eric Cantonese posted:There's a paywall, sadly. A Webpage Archive of that article is here: https://archive.is/Fvb7X a handy little site.
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Mar 10, 2023 19:37
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Nenonen posted:Finnish PM Sanna Marin who is today in Kyiv gave an interview in which she said that "we could have a discussion about giving F-18 Hornets to Ukraine". Aren't the older F-18C's not a good fit for Ukraine alongside the older F-16's anyways? They're more ruggedized, have longer range, and a wide variety of countries have them being phased out for the F-35. Lots of the active airframes already have upgraded avionics compatible with a wide variety of munitions that can satisfy most mission profiles, so it seems to me like it would be a good fit. 
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Mar 10, 2023 20:12
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Just Another Lurker posted:A Webpage Archive of that article is here: https://archive.is/Fvb7X a handy little site.
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Mar 10, 2023 20:21
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My speculation is no air frame makes sense in the immediate time frame. The amount of aircraft/training/maintenance that would need to be sent to Ukraine to get it built up enough to begin to challenge Russia's air force would constitute a huge investment that I think is better spent elsewhere. Russia's air force is huge and the only thing really keeping it in check is ground based air defenses which are probably a far better investment for Ukraine in the immediate term.
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Mar 10, 2023 20:22
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I forget whom, but one of the analysts pointed out that 80 F-16s would cost about the same amount as all of the aid the US provided through early winter. So if you're asking Ukraine, "Would you rather have HIMARS, M777s, 105mm ammo, 155mm ammo, 152mm ammo we bought ~somewhere~, Stingers, Javelins, armored cars, body armor, rifles, machineguns, grenades, automatic grenade launchers, mortars, drones, loitering munitions....or would you rather than 80 F-16s?", the answer is pretty obvious.
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Mar 10, 2023 20:41
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I’d heard about how drones were being used as artillery spotters but this article really drove home for me how off-the-shelf the tools are: https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2023/03/black-swan-starlinks-unexpected-boon-ukraines-defenders/383514/ quote:... If the controller is an Android model, the drone footage can then be easily shared via Google Meet. The Ukrainian artillery team merely has to receive an invite to the “meeting” and instantly has a live feed of where their rounds are landing.
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Mar 10, 2023 20:49
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FMguru posted:Maybe we should put the archive.is/archive.ph hack in the thread OP. No, the OP will not have hot tips and tricks for avoiding paying for paid services.
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Mar 10, 2023 21:01
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Ynglaur posted:I forget whom, but one of the analysts pointed out that 80 F-16s would cost about the same amount as all of the aid the US provided through early winter. So if you're asking Ukraine, "Would you rather have HIMARS, M777s, 105mm ammo, 155mm ammo, 152mm ammo we bought ~somewhere~, Stingers, Javelins, armored cars, body armor, rifles, machineguns, grenades, automatic grenade launchers, mortars, drones, loitering munitions....or would you rather than 80 F-16s?", the answer is pretty obvious. quote:[The OG lend-lease delivered] over 400,000 jeeps and trucks; 12,000 armored vehicles (including 7,000 tanks, about 1,386[57] of which were M3 Lees and 4,102 M4 Shermans);[58] 11,400 aircraft (of which 4,719 were Bell P-39 Airacobras, 3,414 were Douglas A-20 Havocs and 2,397 were Bell P-63 Kingcobras)[59] and 1.75 million tons of food. Ynglaur posted:The Stingers I trained on (very, very briefly) over 20 years ago did not have a night sight. They did track a thermal signature, so I suppose if you pointed them at something at night it would get a lock, but spotting something at night would be challenging. It wouldn't surprise me if we had a night or thermal sight option now, but anti-aircraft was basically given $0 outside of Patriot and THAAD until the mid-2010's, so maybe it doesn't. Just Another Lurker posted:A Webpage Archive of that article is here: https://archive.is/Fvb7X a handy little site.
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Mar 10, 2023 21:10
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Ynglaur posted:I forget whom, but one of the analysts pointed out that 80 F-16s would cost about the same amount as all of the aid the US provided through early winter. So if you're asking Ukraine, "Would you rather have HIMARS, M777s, 105mm ammo, 155mm ammo, 152mm ammo we bought ~somewhere~, Stingers, Javelins, armored cars, body armor, rifles, machineguns, grenades, automatic grenade launchers, mortars, drones, loitering munitions....or would you rather than 80 F-16s?", the answer is pretty obvious. Is money the limiting factor in Lend-Lease Aid, though? I thought the whole point of Lend-Lease was that Biden could give away whatever he had, in return for whatever price he deems fair including "a firm handshake and a big old kiss on the lips." Under those circumstances Biden could "sell" Ukraine both all those bits of land equipment AND 80 F-16s for a song and not make much of difference. Of course, it's possible that Congress might get a bit antsy if Biden is giving away "too much" in their minds, but since the F-16s and equipment has already been produced it's not the dollar value per se of the equipment that'll get their dander up, is it?
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Mar 10, 2023 21:20
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mobby_6kl posted:That... seems like a pretty glaring oversight. As you say the actual targeting is IR so it's really just a matter of seeing the aircraft with your eyes before pulling the trigger. Wouldn't just pairing them with regular NVGs work for that? It would have to be able to distinguish a fast moving object several kilometers away, also I don't know if you'd be able to see anything against the sky anyway as it's where most of the light comes from (starlight, reflections of human light sources etc.). So a normal infantry night vision is not good enough probably (my experience is from way back so dunno how good the tech is now).
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Mar 10, 2023 21:24
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mobby_6kl posted:
Money is a political concern, so it's real enough, even if a lot of is basically accounting fiction in reality.
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Mar 10, 2023 21:40
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It's also probably a lot more than just shipping 80 jets to Ukraine. You need all the maintenance equipment, spare parts, stockpiles of very expensive munitions and probably support craft like AWACs and perhaps Electronic Warfare air craft too. To really challenge Russia's air power would require a lot of effort that I just think is politically a tough sell on top of being really expensive.
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Mar 10, 2023 21:55
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Nenonen posted:It would have to be able to distinguish a fast moving object several kilometers away, also I don't know if you'd be able to see anything against the sky anyway as it's where most of the light comes from (starlight, reflections of human light sources etc.). So a normal infantry night vision is not good enough probably (my experience is from way back so dunno how good the tech is now). OddObserver posted:Money is a political concern, so it's real enough, even if a lot of is basically accounting fiction in reality. Popete posted:It's also probably a lot more than just shipping 80 jets to Ukraine. You need all the maintenance equipment, spare parts, stockpiles of very expensive munitions and probably support craft like AWACs and perhaps Electronic Warfare air craft too. To really challenge Russia's air power would require a lot of effort that I just think is politically a tough sell on top of being really expensive.
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Mar 10, 2023 22:26
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Poland and Slovakia are talking about sending their MiG-29s to Ukraine again: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/03/09/are-slovakia-and-poland-finally-serious-about-giving-ukraine-their-old-mig-29s https://news.yahoo.com/poland-prepared-transfer-remaining-mig-233300076.html Duda said in an interview the other day that Poland is ready to send it's MiGs to Ukraine "as part of a broader coalition". Today the Slovakian defense minister said that "it's time to make a decision" on sending MiGs as they could really help Ukraine. Ukraine for its part has said that it's main priority right now is artillery and artillery shells.
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Mar 10, 2023 22:54
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mobby_6kl posted:Wouldn't just pairing them with regular NVGs work for that? Regular NVGs aren’t thermal/IR. They’re usually just image intensifiers, they brighten up what you could already see but don’t necessarily let you see in a different part of the spectrum.
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Mar 10, 2023 22:57
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Icon Of Sin posted:Regular NVGs aren’t thermal/IR. They’re usually just image intensifiers, they brighten up what you could already see but don’t necessarily let you see in a different part of the spectrum.
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Mar 10, 2023 23:18
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mobby_6kl posted:Yeah I know but (having never fired a stinger, obviously) my understanding is that the problem is that it's difficult to see the plane/chopper at night to aim the missile at it. So amplifying the normal visible light could be enough. Or maybe not Something to keep in mind but most NVG shift your field of vision a little, when you view a scope through, say an old Gen II mono NVG, what you think your aiming at may not necessarily be what your actually aiming at. Back Hack fucked around with this message at 01:12 on Mar 11, 2023 |
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Mar 11, 2023 01:00
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Tomn posted:Is money the limiting factor in Lend-Lease Aid, though? I thought the whole point of Lend-Lease was that Biden could give away whatever he had, in return for whatever price he deems fair including "a firm handshake and a big old kiss on the lips." Under those circumstances Biden could "sell" Ukraine both all those bits of land equipment AND 80 F-16s for a song and not make much of difference. Of course, it's possible that Congress might get a bit antsy if Biden is giving away "too much" in their minds, but since the F-16s and equipment has already been produced it's not the dollar value per se of the equipment that'll get their dander up, is it? Has Lend Lease been invoked even once so far? I thought aid so far has mostly been under bills or under Presidential draw down authority under the Foreign Assistance Act. I imagine Lend-Lease's practical use is limited because the fancy stuff really can't be sent "as is."
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Mar 11, 2023 01:55
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mobby_6kl posted:True, but all that can be addressed if there is the will (which there might not be, see above). But also it doesn't even have to be 80 airframes, could be a dozen. And it's not like you have to immediately have giant air battles with the russian air force. Just shoot down cruise missiles, fire standoff munitions, sneak out to sink the subs, etc. But what is this really buying Ukraine? A dozen fighters avoiding any direct combat and occasionally launching HARMs at enemy radars or maybe a few cruise missiles is basically what their Mig-29/Su-27 fleet was doing anyways. Now they have to train/maintain a new aircraft which is still going to be costly compared to just sending over more HIMARs and another Patriot site. There just doesn't seem to be a strong reason to send them new aircraft if it's not enough to actually be used in numbers, the Russian air force has hundreds of air craft (actually in service numbers who knows) and can field a large air defense network to also deny direct air support. It seems like a misappropriation of resources and political will power to push for that.
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Mar 11, 2023 02:04
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Popete posted:But what is this really buying Ukraine? A dozen fighters avoiding any direct combat and occasionally launching HARMs at enemy radars or maybe a few cruise missiles is basically what their Mig-29/Su-27 fleet was doing anyways. Now they have to train/maintain a new aircraft which is still going to be costly compared to just sending over more HIMARs and another Patriot site. They may be a part of a credible air-defense network, since the existing ones are too old and their number keeps getting attrited. Of course, probably not a priority.
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Mar 11, 2023 02:09
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Popete posted:But what is this really buying Ukraine? A dozen fighters avoiding any direct combat and occasionally launching HARMs at enemy radars or maybe a few cruise missiles is basically what their Mig-29/Su-27 fleet was doing anyways. Now they have to train/maintain a new aircraft which is still going to be costly compared to just sending over more HIMARs and another Patriot site. I think the main thing to me is that aircraft are very long lead time and if Russia figure out how to conduct effective SEAD operations, the airforce becomes more important as a deterrence. Ground based air defense is still cheaper and more effective, but aircraft is the backup if they fail. This was a rusi article posted a while back that kinda talks about it: https://static.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Air-War-Ukraine-web-final.pdf quote:The inability of the Russian Air Force to quote:However, in the short term, even a tiny number of modern Western fighters would be a huge
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Mar 11, 2023 02:14
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Tomn posted:Is money the limiting factor in Lend-Lease Aid, though? I thought the whole point of Lend-Lease was that Biden could give away whatever he had, in return for whatever price he deems fair including "a firm handshake and a big old kiss on the lips." PDAs are not unlimited. The president can decide (with some limits) the capability to be drawn down, but only up to a fiscal limit set by congress. Congress set the limit at $14.5 billion for FY23 (the normal limit is $100 million, IIRC). The lend-lease act still requires Ukraine to pay for or return equipment, it just reduces red tape before shipment. This is why we haven't seen the lend-lease act used very much in practice. More details here: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12040 https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/3522/text
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Mar 11, 2023 02:26
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The UK paid 10% of the cost of lend lease material and took from the 1940’s until 2006 to pay even that off. Lend lease isn’t the first choice but it’s a drat good alternative if you find yourself out of poo poo to give away and with a hostile / compromised legislature for a few years.
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Mar 11, 2023 02:46
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