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bob dobbs is dead posted:ah, matt levine poor guy
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:03 |
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# ? Jun 8, 2024 09:01 |
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i enjoy him immensely but he inflicted his life on himself
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:04 |
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Pinterest Mom posted:
lmao someone should set up an ETF or something based off of matt levine's vacation schedule
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:05 |
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banks: completely trustable in every way up to $250k, but that 250,001st dollar on you're hosed
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:07 |
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they just wernt diversified and had poo poo ideas about what running a bank means... crypto for silvergate, SV for SVB and the next one will be some random rear end podunk bank that has a customer base that is 90% farmers or GM as their only customer and then that industry shits the bed and kills the bank...
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:09 |
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https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1634292056821764099
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:10 |
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refleks posted:they just wernt diversified and had poo poo ideas about what running a bank means... diversification delays the steamroller but does not prevent it it means the run takes 9 days like wamu instead of hours like svb
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:11 |
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:11 |
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gubmint stay outta my business!! wait wait not like that
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:12 |
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a bank run absolutely involves moving fast and breaking things
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:14 |
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if we're gonna take bets on the next techbro bank to fall, my vote is on SBNY not due to SVB contagion, but due to panic. it has a large fraction in crypto assets (15-20%?) and Marc Cohodes has been calling it out along with silvergate for a long time
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:16 |
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I’m not sure if this is going to have farther-reaching effects or not but it’s making all the worst people real upset so that seems to be a positive.
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:18 |
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:20 |
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there it is
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:27 |
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https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1429811968911699976
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:28 |
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rotor posted:there it is
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:29 |
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post hole digger posted:i'm just trying to make sure im understanding this right: the thing that hosed SVB was that they put $80 billion in mortgage backed securities yielding 1.5%, and got bit because rates went up, they were stuck with these lackluster assets, wanted to give themselves some breathing room so they sold them off at a loss, and selling them at a loss spooked investors which triggered the sell-off and subsequent bank run?
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:29 |
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absolutely incredible lmao there's no broad scale contagion risk because nobody else was holding a portfolio of 100% correlated deposits this guy is trying to do the classic main street vs wall street but spinning it in his favour, because when you get bailed out it's government overreach, but when I go bankrupt it's systemically important e: also on the MBS thing, that doesn't actually really mean anything inherently bad like the whole CDO "rate these turds as AAA" problem, low interest mbs held to maturity is just like a non government bond, with some risk variation, but the problem is that if you need to offload your bond inventory after the safe government rates have risen your bond price is gonna go down to reflect the priced in opportunity loss, so even though you might get your 100 cents on the dollar back at maturity, you're gonna have to sell it off at 75 cents and get hosed Powerful Two-Hander fucked around with this message at 22:38 on Mar 10, 2023 |
# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:34 |
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yeah i know its just funny to see mortgage backed securities pop up again in this context.
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:40 |
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lots of banks have huge amounts of corporate accounts way above the insurance limit tho. after this everyone - everyone - is gonna look at their accounts and figure out how to get things under the insured limit. they are gonna do that via withdrawals. and voila, contagion
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:40 |
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i hate this guy
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:49 |
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ro khanna sucks rear end.
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:50 |
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lmaoquote:One obvious question is: If you are “another, healthy bank” working through this weekend to buy SVB and assume its deposits, how much would you pay for the assets, which were worth $212 billion in December? I am pretty sure the answer is higher than $8 billion, the amount of insured deposits: The FDIC will not be on the hook for the insured deposits. The $15 billion of FHLB advances are also quite senior and will presumably be no problem to pay back.
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:52 |
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bob dobbs is dead posted:lots of banks have huge amounts of corporate accounts way above the insurance limit tho. after this everyone - everyone - is gonna look at their accounts and figure out how to get things under the insured limit. they are gonna do that via withdrawals. and voila, contagion that's not even remotely how it works, are they gonna go put it under the mattress or what? like yeah if *everyone* tries to take their money out in physical form (so not like, moving it to another bank) everything would be hosed but that's clearly highly unlikely (if not logistically impossible) as seen when countries that run into bank run disaster zones used to find out because everything else just implodes at the same time ( because of a loss of confidence in their central bank) the FDIC insurance bit to 250k is one thing but that's primarily there for *retail* clients. If you're a corporate then what the FDIC is there for is to do an orderly unwind which involves selling the asset/loan book off to a bigger bank. If the depositor was basically a wildcat bank that had put their money in crypto an exploded then those assets may be sold at pennies on the dollar and the response from the FDIC might be "lol,lmao", but if they're just holding longer term bonds and hosed themselves over through correlation risk then they'll just sell it to someone with higher liquidity and it'll get added to BofA (deez nuts) loan book
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:57 |
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PIZZA.BAT posted:lemme just add as someone who left their previous boring af megacorp job for a small startup that’s making real revenue but still isn’t profitable: 😬 narrator voice: his company banked with svb we were having a call with a vendor a few hours ago and i could tell my boss, who's normally very engaged, was 100% checked out. i asked him what was up after the call and he told me the bad news the cfo hasn't announced anything yet so maybe we were lucky and managed to get our money out. i've been working all day so i haven't heard any news besides my one friend texting me to tell me they went bust. all i know is that our bank
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 22:58 |
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https://twitter.com/88888saccount/status/1634028258500169731
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 23:01 |
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I just missed my train stop because I was posting that I hope you're all happy
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 23:03 |
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Powerful Two-Hander posted:that's not even remotely how it works, are they gonna go put it under the mattress or what? the real question is if they take a haircut from the unwind, yeah, and if so how big that haircut will be. do they even want to ask that question?
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 23:05 |
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bob dobbs is dead posted:the real question is if they take a haircut from the unwind, yeah, and if so how big that haircut will be. do they even want to ask that question? if it's insolvency because of lack of liquidity then in theory there would be assets of value equal to the value of deposits just those assets might not be worth the full amount if you sold them right now. if there's a delta (like idk I sold a bunch then went "uh oh") then shareholders would take a bath first, but this isn't like a bankruptcy because even though the money is "away from them" it's like, coming back in a few years
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 23:10 |
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right. but do you wanna be in the position of asking that question thats why banking is theater done for keeps
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 23:11 |
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bob dobbs is dead posted:right. but do you wanna be in the position of asking that question it basically works until it doesn't, but the "doesn't" is like, the federal reserve imploded and dirt is the new currency
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 23:14 |
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the "does" still has a nonzero chance of you taking a haircut, is the problem. and it seems basically a guarantee of illiquidity a big ol instance of "if treasuries are hosed everyone is hosed theyre safe" started this problem in the first place. at no point were treasuries hosed and yet the bank was hosed anyways bob dobbs is dead fucked around with this message at 23:21 on Mar 10, 2023 |
# ? Mar 10, 2023 23:15 |
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ok time to catch up with the thread
cool Shifty Pony posted:"how big of a deal could it be, insurance covers $250k per account..." cool MononcQc posted:well I guess it had been a while since I've been nervous around payroll time it's 2008 all over again. at least this time i don't have an office to receive an email telling me to not even bother going to cool FMguru posted:https://twitter.com/garrytan/status/1634286688922132481 cool Pinterest Mom posted:
lol
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 23:19 |
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PIZZA.BAT posted:narrator voice: his company banked with svb The startup I'm at also did, our president/COO told us this won't yet affect day to day or them making payroll. We'll see how this plays out.
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 23:27 |
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post hole digger posted:a bank run absolutely involves moving fast and breaking things lol
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 23:36 |
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about to find out where and how startups exactly store a runway
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 23:39 |
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bob dobbs is dead posted:the "does" still has a nonzero chance of you taking a haircut, is the problem. and it seems basically a guarantee of illiquidity no not quite. bond prices are weird in that the price is inverse to the rate they pay Vs uhhhhh the risk free return? I think? With that being "I put my money in the fed at the base interest rate" so you may have a load of nice us treasuries paying 1% that were super compared to your risk free rate of 0.1%, but now the risk free rate (or the rate on new us bonds) is 4% if you try to offload them they're going to be discounted to reflect the larger coupons you're passing up it's been a very long time since I had to know th me actual detail of black scholes though and I've been drinking so maybe I'm way off though!
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 23:42 |
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as i said. the fact that the treasuries have been continually and faithfully paid did not save them one whit black scholes is options, no options involved. black scholes specifically also assumes constant interest rate lol bob dobbs is dead fucked around with this message at 23:46 on Mar 10, 2023 |
# ? Mar 10, 2023 23:44 |
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I know we are all reading the Matt Levine article but this is great:quote:
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 23:46 |
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# ? Jun 8, 2024 09:01 |
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https://twitter.com/bhargreaves/status/1634249550834679808 lol if true
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# ? Mar 10, 2023 23:46 |