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shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

https://twitter.com/MarketWatch/status/1635052821052796928?s=20

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Beeftweeter
Jun 28, 2005

OFFICIAL #1 GNOME FAN

guillotine

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005


My t-shirt...

Centrist Committee
Aug 6, 2019

looking at my calendar and by god they’re right

Hubbert
Mar 25, 2007

At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

coelomate posted:

"The futures - they are soaring" -- CNBC anchor

DOW SOARS

Woke Mind Virus
Aug 22, 2005

This is the soft landing

triple sulk
Sep 17, 2014



:d2a:

Canned Sunshine
Nov 20, 2005

CAUTION: POST QUALITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION



triple sulk posted:

america is loving garbage

coelomate
Oct 21, 2020



This is technically true -- these 3 banks have been nuked from orbit, they're gone, all senior management and shareholders wiped out. Value down to 0.

Guaranteeing the deposits for TECH BRO BANK and LOL CRYPTO BANK is still gross, but it's not a 2008 bailout.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008
Lots of companywide emails for a Sunday evening....

bvj191jgl7bBsqF5m
Apr 16, 2017

IÃÂÃŒÂÌ° Ó̯̖̫̹̯̤A҉mÃÂ̺̩ Ç̬A̡̮̞̠ÚÉ̱̫ K̶eÓgÃÂ.̻̱̪̕Ö̹̟

triple sulk posted:

loving gross. sick to my stomach over this poo poo

the rich are getting richer

i'm literally shaking

triple sulk
Sep 17, 2014



coelomate posted:

This is technically true -- these 3 banks have been nuked from orbit, they're gone, all senior management and shareholders wiped out. Value down to 0.

Guaranteeing the deposits for TECH BRO BANK and LOL CRYPTO BANK is still gross, but it's not a 2008 bailout.

how is it not a bailout

if the money is ultimately available to them, they were bailed out

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

Honestly, I don't get the whole $250,000 thing if they're going to backstop 100% regardless. Just say FDIC deposits are fully guaranteed - bing bong, so simple!

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


https://i.imgur.com/90n8qMw.gifv

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1635054454104891392

coelomate
Oct 21, 2020


anyway now that jpow has bailed out three banks that blew up because (checks notes) jpow jacked up rates, how do you think that will impact (checks notes) jpow's willingness to continue raising rates at the next meeting in (checks notes) 10 days?

Nothus
Feb 22, 2001

Buglord
No consequences and no more rate hikes. Markets are going to rip tomorrow.

ArmedZombie
Jun 6, 2004

eeewwww zerohedge

:chloe:

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold
somethings got to give lol. if they raise rates banks blow up, if they dont raise rates inflation soars

coelomate
Oct 21, 2020


triple sulk posted:

how is it not a bailout

if the money is ultimately available to them, they were bailed out

SVB had a market cap of ~$12 billion in December. Everyone holding that equity got wiped out.

The depositors just had money in a bank, and were not expecting to take on credit risk of their bank. Their deposits have been guaranteed, but uh, with magic FDIC capitalism treasury future loans, and not congressionally approved funds from the treasury / tax payers.

It's a weird one, and this nuance either (a) doesn't matter or (b) is gonna be lost on a lot of people

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

ArmZ posted:

eeewwww zerohedge

:chloe:

Worst Person You Know, OP.

triple sulk
Sep 17, 2014



coelomate posted:

SVB had a market cap of ~$12 billion in December. Everyone holding that equity got wiped out.

The depositors just had money in a bank, and were not expecting to take on credit risk of their bank. Their deposits have been guaranteed, but uh, with magic FDIC capitalism treasury future loans, and not congressionally approved funds from the treasury / tax payers.

It's a weird one, and this nuance either (a) doesn't matter or (b) is gonna be lost on a lot of people

if the startups do not all shut down as a result of this, it is a bailout

it would still be a bailout if they did and the rich people got their money, but nevertheless

thats not candy
Mar 10, 2010

Hell Gem

Xaris posted:

bonafide we need a ton more actual electrical engineers to deal with various switchboard design, turbines, pumping plants, traffic controls, SCADA, etc.

seriously everyone in the industry is like 60+ years old and retiring, and cannot find enough people interested in ~boring~ electrical switchboard design work. pretty much no one new has experience in EE for decades now, kinda like the space/aerospace experience gap. in-house talent is evaporating

like we need more people who can design upgrades to these:


understandably it's significantly more work involved than just copying code off stackoverflow and calling it a day.

sounds like a job for chatgpt and maybe some of those boston dynamics dogs. bing bong so simple, pay me a billion dollars for my startup aughtomatr

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

ArmZ posted:

eeewwww zerohedge

:chloe:

their analysis sucks but the graphs they make and post are useful for people to make their own, better analysis with

coelomate
Oct 21, 2020


And I was wrong, [Non-Doomsday Economics] was the correct thread title all along. Well played.

Penisaurus Sex
Feb 3, 2009

asdfghjklpoiuyt

Raskolnikov38 posted:

somethings got to give lol. if they raise rates banks blow up, if they dont raise rates inflation soars

Powell's mandate is inflation. We'll see how much collateral damage is worth getting back to 2%.

FUCK COREY PERRY
Apr 19, 2008



Nonsense posted:

Monday is going to be amazing

Ash1138
Sep 29, 2001

Get up, chief. We're just gettin' started.

coelomate posted:

This is technically true -- these 3 banks have been nuked from orbit, they're gone, all senior management and shareholders wiped out. Value down to 0.

Guaranteeing the deposits for TECH BRO BANK and LOL CRYPTO BANK is still gross, but it's not a 2008 bailout.
three? it was only one bank two days ago

coelomate
Oct 21, 2020


Penisaurus Sex posted:

Powell's mandate is inflation. We'll see how much collateral damage is worth getting back to 2%.

Powell's left hand has no reason to stop raising rates because his right hand has a magic bank-unfailing-eraser

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

Penisaurus Sex posted:

Powell's mandate is inflation. We'll see how much collateral damage is worth getting back to 2%.

Destroy all the banks but the Too Big Too Fail! *taps head*

Second Hand Meat Mouth
Sep 12, 2001

lmao you know just the normal "dying bank" template

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

500 good dogs posted:

lmao you know just the normal "dying bank" template

Given the impending failures of all banks but the Too Big To Fail at Powell's hands, YES!

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


Raskolnikov38 posted:

somethings got to give lol. if they raise rates banks blow up, if they dont raise rates inflation soars

As that ZH chart shows, Wells Fargo is my bet for the first Big 4 bank to pop like a balloon.

Ash1138 posted:

three? it was only one bank two days ago

It was two, two days ago: Silvergate went down and then Silicon Valley Bank blew up at the end of last week. The third, Signature Bank got shut down like a hour ago by the Feds glowmen.

First Republic is likely to be next.

ArmedZombie
Jun 6, 2004

Raskolnikov38 posted:

their analysis sucks but the graphs they make and post are useful for people to make their own, better analysis with

yeah but I still feel icky about it

Penisaurus Sex
Feb 3, 2009

asdfghjklpoiuyt

coelomate posted:

Powell's left hand has no reason to stop raising rates because his right hand has a magic bank-unfailing-eraser

I think we're going to find out soon if the distinction between 'failed' and 'depositors were made whole' matters.

SVB is certainly not the only bank ran by idiots, and they are also certainly not the only bank levered up in a bunch of rapidly devaluing fixed rate assets.

coelomate
Oct 21, 2020


Ash1138 posted:

three? it was only one bank two days ago

yeah thread moves fast lmao

silvergate - crypto bank - mid last week

silicon valley bank - friday

signature bank ny - crypto bank - failure into receivership was snuck in with today's rescue amount

ArmedZombie
Jun 6, 2004

Raskolnikov38 posted:

their analysis sucks but the graphs they make and post are useful for people to make their own, better analysis with

you're right but it still feels icky

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

are zerohedge's crimes funny at least?

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Mr Hootington posted:

This is a crypto bank

Not entirely. It was a medium-sized bank that has existed since 2001, with 2000 employees and $60 billion in outstanding loans. They focused on banking for rich entrepreneurs--"DePaolo described the target audience as "the guy who started his business in Brooklyn and is now worth $20 million"."

Basically, it's the New York version of SVB, albeit less prestigious and well-connected. Crypto was only a portion of their exposure.

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Rectal Death Adept
Jun 20, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

Raskolnikov38 posted:

so the fdic has 125 billion on hand, can call another 100 billion into existence at any time, and now theres an extra 25 billion floating at the fed to bailout banks

anybody know what the total loses so far are

Signature and SVB control $267 billion. FRC is having bank lines and got rocked on friday, if they have issues they control another $191 billion.

Not sure what exactly the FDIC needs to cover but with the 2 banks that failed and the 1 that is in trouble that's $458 billion.

I assume they are hoping that any withdrawals and runs on the failed banks are easy to manage. If they calm markets and depositors down and money doesn't move that much then problem solved. They don't need to worry about SVB's balances if they guarantee deposits and let people withdraw 10-20 billion. Everyone gets it out of their system and forgets about it.

I guess there would be a problem if this doesn't stop a wider collapse in finance or if the withdrawals outpace the emergency funds they have in place and emergency guarantees start bouncing.

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