|
Arbite posted:Hang on, that bill says for fiscal 2022-2023. The mid-terms didn't go the way some had feared but the bill isn't a long-term workaround to a hostile congress either. Yeah. A fully hostile congress and/or president is going to be bad news for Ukraine long term. Lend lease is only a short to medium term fix that can get around a hostile congress, so long as you have a president friendly to Ukraine. Additionally, it sets a precedent for a renewal of lend-lease in 2029 if there's a president hostile to Ukraine in 2024-2028 (assuming the 2029 president is pro-Ukraine but congress is anti-Ukraine).
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2023 20:04
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 06:02 |
|
|
The Swiss president (if you're an American, this is complicated) has vocally opposed re-export of Swiss-made arms to Ukraine. Now, this doesn't really cancel the two initiatives reported from their parliament, but apparently they must also include a referendum in the end, so the tl;dr is to not wait on Switzerland, especially this year. https://www.ft.com/content/c6401565-f3d3-489a-b373-e7d5fee11488
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2023 20:21
|
|
|
Caconym posted:Yeah, it seems like some of the same constraints as in WWI, though not for the same reason. In WWI the absolute devastation along the front meant reinforcing and resupplying a breakthough across no-mans-land was close to impossible, so it was relatively easy for the defender to retake captured trench lines. Bolding mine. This is a good insight. When I was a platoon leader our assembly areas for exercises were 5-10km before the notional forward line of troops (FLOT). I've been thinking that we'd likely need to push that back quite a ways--maybe to 20km or more. That adds a lot of friction to maneuver warfare. The US is currently busy re-thinking its tactical operations centers (TOCs) (a close grouping of tents is probably bad!); I'm of the opinion that future TOCs need to be 100% run out of lightly-armored vehicles with active point defense (i.e. autocannon), and things like comms antennas need to be deployable much faster (and signal units need to carry a lot of spares). Concentrating several dozen armored vehicles is just asking your opponent to lob a bunch of armor-seeking 152mm/155mm or rockets with submunitions your way, but starting tens of km back brings its own problems. We haven't seen it yet, but I suspect later in this war or soon thereafter we'll see at least the US invest in organic obscurant-producing capabilities, and probably other countries as well. There's some newer tech out there that's a lot smaller than requiring a dedicated vehicle.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2023 21:29
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:The Swiss president (if you're an American, this is complicated) has vocally opposed re-export of Swiss-made arms to Ukraine. Now, this doesn't really cancel the two initiatives reported from their parliament, but apparently they must also include a referendum in the end, so the tl;dr is to not wait on Switzerland, especially this year. https://www.ft.com/content/c6401565-f3d3-489a-b373-e7d5fee11488 quote:“Swiss weapons must not be used in wars,” President Alain Berset — who is also the country’s interior minister — said in an interview(opens a new window) on Sunday WTF would they be used for other than that, when we're talking things like air defense.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2023 21:44
|
|
|
Nelson Mandingo posted:Honestly at this point I kind of wonder what Russia's thinking with Bakhmut is. Is it entirely just sunk cost fallacy playing up or do they actually want it for a staging area due to it's defensive utility? According to ISW, it may be due to infighting between Wagner and Russian MOD. Killing two birds with one stone: diminishing Wagner's & Ukraine's power. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-12-2023
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2023 22:31
|
|
|
ummel posted:According to ISW, it may be due to infighting between Wagner and Russian MOD. Killing two birds with one stone: diminishing Wagner's & Ukraine's power.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2023 23:06
|
|
|
ummel posted:According to ISW, it may be due to infighting between Wagner and Russian MOD. Killing two birds with one stone: diminishing Wagner's & Ukraine's power. "we are losing a war we were supposed to win in three days, but at least guys we don't like and who were supposed to be our elite troops took heavy losses" is some big brain moment.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2023 23:26
|
|
|
Atreiden posted:WTF would they be used for other than that, when we're talking things like air defense. There's quite a few uses for weapons in what are called "measures short of war". UN peacekeeping missions or protecting emergency relief forces are the ones that come most easily to mind. It's still an absolutely blockheaded statement by the Swiss president.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 00:02
|
|
|
I'm sure Swiss companies will whine and complain when Ukraine doesn't sign any rebuilding contracts with them. Given how they've handled this, I don't know why any rules-following democracy would ever buy military equipment from them after this.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 00:11
|
|
|
Countries in the pro-Russia camp could be a new market I suppose.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 00:16
|
|
|
Szarrukin posted:"we are losing a war we were supposed to win in three days, but at least guys we don't like and who were supposed to be our elite troops took heavy losses" is some big brain moment. I don’t think Wagner was ever supposed to be an elite force, just a relatively deniable one useful for hybrid warfare. No, if you want to see the Russian elite get mulched you’ll have to look at the VDV last year.  In all seriousness though I do wonder - some earlier articles discussed how Wagner managed to make significant inroads in Central Africa, in particular taking direct control of various important mines. If Wagner actually is on the losing side of a Kremlin political struggle, what will this mean for Wagner’s overseas outposts?
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 00:21
|
|
|
Tomn posted:If Wagner actually is on the losing side of a Kremlin political struggle, what will this mean for Wagner’s overseas outposts? They remain Putin's property. In general, I think the range of possible practical outcomes for any such moves, which in often are not confirmed by much more than tea leaves reading from ISW, is vastly overstated. A few of the times that I checked their sources in more detail, it was like a Prigozhin TG channel making a post critical of the MoD. Terrific struggle. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 00:42 on Mar 14, 2023 |
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 00:38
|
|
|
Ynglaur posted:Bolding mine. This is a good insight. When I was a platoon leader our assembly areas for exercises were 5-10km before the notional forward line of troops (FLOT). I've been thinking that we'd likely need to push that back quite a ways--maybe to 20km or more. That adds a lot of friction to maneuver warfare. This is really interesting. Is there any evidence the US military is actively studying the Ukraine war and developing tactics, doctrines and strategies to accordingly? Or is the culture rigid and they’re sorta doubling down on the way things were in the past?
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 01:25
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:This is really interesting. Is there any evidence the US military is actively studying the Ukraine war and developing tactics, doctrines and strategies to accordingly? Kofman had a cryptic mention after his trip to Bakhmut that the US was observing how different weapon systems were performing and would be making adjustments going forward. So yeah, people are watching and will be studying this war for many years to come. However, aside from the performance of individual weapon systems, I think it is a hard war to generalize tactics from. The US isn't likely to be fighting a huge land war without air power using 40 or 50 year old Soviet systems against an enemy with enormous numbers of tanks it doesn't know how to use. The dynamic of relatively static trench lines for months at a time is really specific to this war and its anachronistic mix of new and old weapons. The tactics that make sense in Ukraine are probably going to be very different than a war in the Pacific or a war with more modern tanks and weapon systems.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 01:40
|
|
|
The old way of army command posts, except add camouflage liberally. Prototype new army command post.  There are current army command posts that look like a blend of the two in service right now and have been for decades. A tent-centric command post. This post has certainly already been destroyed, not by enemy fire, but by the wind and impatient troops. 
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 01:45
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:This is really interesting. Is there any evidence the US military is actively studying the Ukraine war and developing tactics, doctrines and strategies to accordingly? Or is the culture rigid and they’re sorta doubling down on the way things were in the past? Literally every military in the world is going to be either A:Taking all the loving notes B:Comprised of complete idiots This conflict is going to be massively informative when it comes to practical testing of equipment and tactics and the interplay of them. Already we're seeing how quadcopter drones are useful when it comes to attacking vehicles. Expect more of that and countermeasures for them coming out in the future. Also it's showing just how materially expensive war is. I know that sort of knowledge can be researched by cracking open history books, but there's a difference between knowing intellectually that you need so many shells per month, and watching stocks of them flying out a warehouse and the need for ramped production in active conflict. That sort of firsthand experience may well see increased restocking done by major countries after this war ends.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 01:49
|
|
|
saratoga posted:Kofman had a cryptic mention after his trip to Bakhmut that the US was observing how different weapon systems were performing and would be making adjustments going forward. So yeah, people are watching and will be studying this war for many years to come. There’s always something to learn from exposing your equipment to combat conditions, especially since we haven’t really used them in that environment (Ukraine is going to be different than the deserts we sent those to for 2 decades) or used them against a (supposed) peer army specifically.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 01:52
|
|
|
This is the first peer conflict (or something close to it) involving a major world power since WW2. It is of massive interest to militaries, political scientists, historians, etc., all over the world.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 02:14
|
|
|
So, I just heard an interesting tidbit. The Russians definitely have huge parks of T-72 tanks rusting out in the open (they can be seen in sat images), yet they are pulling from the significantly inferior stocks of T-62s instead to send to the front. This has been a bit of a mystery, and I have previously thought it was mostly because T-72:s have a lot more finicky equipment that's probably broken and would be too hard to repair. The real reason might be a lot more banal. Prior Soviet tanks tended to use specialist engines tweaked to the edge of their performance envelopes. This caused them boatloads of problems, to the point that when T-64:s were having horrible engine-related issues, the T-72 that was designed as a mobilization model and then mass production model was deliberately designed to use a derated, more conservative engines. As, unlike with previous tanks, these engines had reliability and durability that was reasonable for a commercial engine, those same engines then ended up in a lot of various kinds of commercial heavy equipment. You can see the problem, right? A T-62 sitting in a park is still going to have it's engine, because there's no demand for it. While the T-72 engines that were not in active use were all sold a decade ago to run some bulldozer or something.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 03:35
|
|
|
That, plus the copper wire was ripped out and the thermal imager flipped on eBay.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 03:42
|
|
|
On the T-72 front, I saw a Forbes article that linked to this twitter account: https://twitter.com/partizan_oleg/status/1633166853664276480 I'm not sure how accurate his counts are (based on supposed production run numbers - numbers exported) which states that Russia has potentially lost 1/3.5 of its total potential T-72 fleet. I mean, its just some internet random, but Russia has lost a lot of T-72s.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 03:45
|
|
|
Popete posted:I'm not convinced even if you could get Ukraine 80 F-16s, train them and get the maintenance/parts/missiles/bombs in quantity in a timely matter that it would result in them having air superiority. 80 F-16s is still a small fraction of Russia's air force and then you have to contend with all the air defense system Russia also has. Seems all the political/financial will to get that done is better spent elsewhere. Maybe a smaller package of modern fighters would be helpful in a more limited role though. That makes a lot more sense, thanks for clarifying what I should have been able to deduce. I guess it is a bit obvious that training is the roadblock for western style fighters, and from what I have read training a pilot is exponentially more complex and expensive than training on ground based weapons systems.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 04:00
|
|
|
WarpedLichen posted:On the T-72 front, I saw a Forbes article that linked to this twitter account: I think Oryx is pretty accurate, they were all visually identified.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 04:43
|
|
|
Saint Celestine posted:I think Oryx is pretty accurate, they were all visually identified. Oryx is the Gold standard for minimum loss count due to the fact it has to be proven by evidence. Oryx thinks they only will ever see approx 80% of verifiable Russian losses however so safe to say Russia has lost a good number more on top.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 05:34
|
|
|
Oryx is probably as dependable as they get, but that particular analysis is done by someone called partizan_oleg using Oryx as well as a variety of other sources. Oryx only supplied the numerator.
Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 05:52 on Mar 14, 2023 |
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 05:40
|
|
|
There may be some movement on other fronts soon: German news media Zeit claims Ukraine sees Russian preparations for a retreat of occupation clerks from the Saporischschja region. If this turns out to be true, the question remains: Why? Does Russia want to retreat from that region, or did Russia see signs of Ukraine's next offensive and realized they can't hold there anyway? Edit: To be more precise, the headline talks about collaborators, the short text below from the live blog just mentions vaguely "occupation clerks", I'm assuming this means Russia wants to get helpful locals out of there, not actually retreat themselves. Though with that amount of information, anything goes. Libluini fucked around with this message at 09:47 on Mar 14, 2023 |
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 09:45
|
|
|
Libluini posted:There may be some movement on other fronts soon: I've heard rumors like that in regards to Kherson (the remaining occupied part) as well and it doesn't really make sense to me because abandoning those regions will just make holding on to the rest more difficult. Unless the russians feel they're really turbofucked but I don't see why they would, at this point at least.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 09:53
|
|
|
There have been similar signals like "gauleiters are evacuating their families from Crimea/Melitopol/Berdyanak" for the last half a year, it doesn't indicate much other than everyone preparing for an eventual ukrainian counteroffensive, in the same theme as building anti-landing defensive structures in Crimea
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 10:00
|
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:I've heard rumors like that in regards to Kherson (the remaining occupied part) as well and it doesn't really make sense to me because abandoning those regions will just make holding on to the rest more difficult. Unless the russians feel they're really turbofucked but I don't see why they would, at this point at least. Looking at a map, Saporischschja itself is a good, long stretch away from the actual frontline, deep in Ukrainian-controlled territory. So it may be just something like some badly placed villages on the wrong side of the front Russia wants to abandon? Doesn't look like they're holding much of that region anyway.  I guess we'll have to wait and see.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 10:02
|
|
|
Zaporozhye is the unoccupied city, the center of the Zaporozhye region. It stretches all the way to the Azov sea. When they say evacuating Zaporozhye, they mean the occupied areas, that includes regionally significant cities like Melitopol and Berdyansk
Somaen fucked around with this message at 10:12 on Mar 14, 2023 |
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 10:09
|
|
|
Huh, that region is a lot bigger then I thought.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 10:39
|
|
|
Yeah, it was peak ridiculousness when Russia declared Zaporozhye Region as a willingly joined new territory of Russia without actually controlling Zaporozhye city.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 10:49
|
|
|
Atreiden posted:WTF would they be used for other than that, when we're talking things like air defense. It's an interview with a Swiss newspaper, so you have to understand that quote in context of Swiss neutrality and recent Swiss laws restricting weapons exports after Swiss weapons had turned up in conflicts around the world. He means that Swiss weapons shall not be exported to an active war zone. Switzerland is a neutral country by constitution and mentality. Neutral countries, according to the Hague convention, shall not export arms to countries at war. It's pretty simple, everybody knew that before and I can't blame the Swiss for sticking to their own laws and international law. If the Germans buy weapons and ammunition from Switzerland they should not act surprised when the Swiss don't allow them to send Swiss materiel to Ukraine. The Swiss only make exceptions for situations like UN peacekeeping missions (in which they also actively participate nowadays) or wars sanctioned by the UN security council. Here is the German interview, you can put it through DeepL in case anyone is interested. https://archive.is/tU0cU
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 11:09
|
|
|
fatherboxx posted:Yeah, it was peak ridiculousness when Russia declared Zaporozhye Region as a willingly joined new territory of Russia without actually controlling Zaporozhye city.  All of this could've been avoided with a computer from this century and the Steam Paradox game multipack
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 11:22
|
|
|
chadbear posted:It's an interview with a Swiss newspaper, so you have to understand that quote in context of Swiss neutrality and recent Swiss laws restricting weapons exports after Swiss weapons had turned up in conflicts around the world. He means that Swiss weapons shall not be exported to an active war zone. Switzerland is a neutral country by constitution and mentality. Neutral countries, according to the Hague convention, shall not export arms to countries at war. It's pretty simple, everybody knew that before and I can't blame the Swiss for sticking to their own laws and international law. If the Germans buy weapons and ammunition from Switzerland they should not act surprised when the Swiss don't allow them to send Swiss materiel to Ukraine. The Swiss only make exceptions for situations like UN peacekeeping missions (in which they also actively participate nowadays) or wars sanctioned by the UN security council. To quote Yes Minister "You are either in the arms business or you aren't". Now if you want to take a moral stance that a country shouldn't be in the arms trade (as I think a lot of people would instinctively, although perhaps being willing to reconsider the moral nuances given the last year) that's fine, but if you do want to sell arms then you need to accept that at some point people are probably going to want to use those arms in a conflict. Nobody is ever going to buy from Switzerland again, it's the end of their defence industry.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 11:38
|
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:I've heard rumors like that in regards to Kherson (the remaining occupied part) as well and it doesn't really make sense to me because abandoning those regions will just make holding on to the rest more difficult. Unless the russians feel they're really turbofucked but I don't see why they would, at this point at least. The question is: What kind of supply throughput can the Russians achieve to these areas? Ukraine has had long-range artillery that can hit most of these areas for the whole winter, and there is no overland railroad connecting them. All we know that there are constant "smoking accidents" in the area, but the actual effect of this bombardment is opaque to us. If the entire area is effectively out of supply, retreat could be the only viable action. Or it could be well supplied, and this is all psyop bullshit. 
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 11:42
|
|
|
Alchenar posted:To quote Yes Minister "You are either in the arms business or you aren't". It's a huge blow to the Swiss arms industry, and I never disputed that. But you have to understand that neutrality in this conflict is not just a moral stance, neutrality is one of the foundations of the country. I can't blame the Swiss for sticking to their principles. You have to blame everybody else for buying from the Swiss arms industry and then acting all surprised.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 12:09
|
|
|
Tuna-Fish posted:The question is: What kind of supply throughput can the Russians achieve to these areas? Ukraine has had long-range artillery that can hit most of these areas for the whole winter, and there is no overland railroad connecting them. All we know that there are constant "smoking accidents" in the area, but the actual effect of this bombardment is opaque to us. Until the bridge is destroyed for good can't they supply it through crimea? Maybe it's really not sustainable even now, but as you say it's hard for us to tell sitting here.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 12:19
|
|
|
chadbear posted:It's a huge blow to the Swiss arms industry, and I never disputed that. But you have to understand that neutrality in this conflict is not just a moral stance, neutrality is one of the foundations of the country. I can't blame the Swiss for sticking to their principles. You have to blame everybody else for buying from the Swiss arms industry and then acting all surprised. It's not "a moral stance", it's a stance on side of defacto support of oppression and aggression from a country that manages to feel morally smug for having been defacto on German side in World War II.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 12:36
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 06:02 |
|
|
Seems like it's time to discontinue Switzerland and reunite its people with their brothers and sisters in Germany, France and Italy. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2023 12:59
|
|