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ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

rex rabidorum vires posted:

If Hart or Demko are available I think those are vastly better options than Jarry who is a liability and can not stay healthy.

Demko is back and healthy and playing like a franchise netminder again. There was a window to trade for him when he was hurt and the team seemed like it was maybe pivoting to a rebuild but that closed. At $5m per for the next three years he's probably the best goaltender value contract on earth. It would take one hell of a trade to pry him out of Vancouver right now given they're set on the playoffs. The only reason they'd maybe want to do that is Arturs Silovs is progressing very well and has the makings of an NHL starter in a couple years.

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Schremp Howard
Jul 18, 2010

What attitude problem?
I remember there was a report that Demko wanted out but then he denied it. Doesn't mean anything, but I wouldn't blame him for not wanting to be a part of whatever it is Vancouver is doing. Same for Hart and the Flyers since he's been rumored to be available. Both teams could get substantial hauls for them.

The Penguins will instead get Gibson and he will promptly turn to dust.

Ginette Reno
Nov 18, 2006

How Doers get more done
Fun Shoe

Schremp Howard posted:

I remember there was a report that Demko wanted out but then he denied it. Doesn't mean anything, but I wouldn't blame him for not wanting to be a part of whatever it is Vancouver is doing. Same for Hart and the Flyers since he's been rumored to be available. Both teams could get substantial hauls for them.

The Penguins will instead get Gibson and he will promptly turn to dust.

They'll probably just re-sign Jarry for too much and too long and he'll be hurt all the time.

shyduck
Oct 3, 2003


There is a 0% chance Carter Hart is traded within the division, if at all

CBJSprague24
Dec 5, 2010

another game at nationwide arena. everybody keeps asking me if they can fuck the cannon. buddy, they don't even let me fuck it

I couldn't get the Bally Sports streaming app to work, so I went to bed, but congratulations on Columbus and San Jose both trying to outtank each other and both damaging their tank chances ever so slightly.

(Columbus for outshooting the Sharks 30-11 at one point and holding repeated two goal leads, San Jose for sending the game to OT anyway, and a hilarious overtime where the cynical could believe nobody wanted to win.)

E- https://youtube.com/watch?v=OEPCv2pnNhw&feature=shares

CBJSprague24 fucked around with this message at 16:15 on Mar 15, 2023

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
What's remarkable about the Penguins is that other than Jarry their injury luck has been extremely good this year, given how ancient they are, and they're still struggling to make the playoffs. Imagine if Crosby had missed 3 months. Or Guentzel, or hell, even Pettersson.

Preseason I projected them to be right where they are, but tbh I was expecting that to be in large part because of lots o' injuries. They were the most injured team in the league throughout the 2010s, and now they're the oldest team in the league. Instead, they're healthy, just... mediocre. But not having a goaltender for most of the season probably is a lot of that to be fair.

Eric the Mauve fucked around with this message at 16:13 on Mar 15, 2023

DJExile
Jun 28, 2007


Schremp Howard posted:

The Penguins will instead get Gibson and he will promptly turn to dust.

I realize nobody’s paying much attention to Anaheim but yeah he’s already dust

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
Sounds like a Penguin already

DJExile
Jun 28, 2007


And yeah I get lolflyers and all but they’re not trading Hart

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:

Matthews has admitted he's been playing through a hand injury all year but now he's all better!!!

Surely this time the nagging injury that he’s repeatedly missed time with for three years has completely gone away in-season with no intervention just before the playoffs, for real guys!

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
One of the underappreciated things about Matthews is that he's an elite faceoff guy, which is weird and impressive given how hosed his wrist apparently is.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

I understand some teams not wanting to sit star players with nagging injuries but the Leafs have been locked into that playoff spot since November! Rest your best player!!!

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN
It's impressive that Ron Hextall filled the bottom 6 with players that have worst scoring per 60 minutes of ice time than Mark Jankowski and decided a mediocre 2nd liner in Granlund would fix it. Of course a huge part in the complete disappearance of bottom 6 scoring is the removal and replacement of Matheson with Rutta.

Other random notes Boyle outperformed every bottom 6er this year on a per 60 basis and with last nights showing Jarry has a .863 since return from injury. His efforts last night erased 3.2 GSAA from his season record and he's quickly approaching 0.

Blackbelt Bobman
Jul 17, 2004

I don't need friends! I've been
manipulatin' you since the start!
All so I can something,
something X-Blade!


Supposedly the Sabres were interested in Demko presumably because he had some kind of connection to Granato through the USA development program which is how they pick all their players lol

I wouldn’t be surprised if they went for him in the off-season to play in tandem with UPL.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
I'm rewatching the 2016 Pens Cup run and what really strikes you is how many players played crucial roles on that team that Mike Sullivan, now that he's a Tenured Head Coach, would absolutely not permit to play on his team now. Justin Schultz. Carl Hagelin. Phil the Thrill Kessel, of course. Olli Maatta was 21 then and played 18 a night when he was healthy--2023 Sullivan would not have let him play any significant minutes at all.

But in 2016 Sullivan was just an interim coach and had to play the players he was given. And they were perfect for his system. He has such a good system but has no real understanding of why it works.

Habibi
Dec 8, 2004

We have the capability to make San Jose's first Cup Champion.

The Sharks could be that Champion.

CBJSprague24 posted:

(Columbus for outshooting the Sharks 30-11 at one point and holding repeated two goal leads, San Jose for sending the game to OT anyway, and a hilarious overtime where the cynical could believe nobody wanted to win.)

E- https://youtube.com/watch?v=OEPCv2pnNhw&feature=shares

Yeah, man, it was very frustrating that the Sharks had the game solidly lost in the third and decided to come back to tie it.

OT was hilarious, though. Totally worth it.

Good Soldier Svejk
Jul 5, 2010

Eric the Mauve posted:

What's remarkable about the Penguins is that other than Jarry their injury luck has been extremely good this year, given how ancient they are, and they're still struggling to make the playoffs. Imagine if Crosby had missed 3 months. Or Guentzel, or hell, even Pettersson.

Preseason I projected them to be right where they are, but tbh I was expecting that to be in large part because of lots o' injuries. They were the most injured team in the league throughout the 2010s, and now they're the oldest team in the league. Instead, they're healthy, just... mediocre. But not having a goaltender for most of the season probably is a lot of that to be fair.

the fact that the year where Letang has a minor stroke is a healthy year for this team makes your point pretty emphatically

Hand Knit
Oct 24, 2005

Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..
I wouldn't be surprised if Matthews' wrist is just perma-hosed at this point.

Powershift
Nov 23, 2009


Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:

I understand some teams not wanting to sit star players with nagging injuries but the Leafs have been locked into that playoff spot since November! Rest your best player!!!

Why would they rest Mitch Marner just because Matthews is injured?

Hand Knit posted:

I wouldn't be surprised if Matthews' wrist is just perma-hosed at this point.

The Leafs are finally going to win a game 7 and get out of the first round, but the game/series winning goal is going to be nudged in by Matthews severed hand in his glove like the simpsons field goal kick.

Schremp Howard
Jul 18, 2010

What attitude problem?

DJExile posted:

I realize nobody’s paying much attention to Anaheim but yeah he’s already dust

I can totally see management looking at it as “well he can bounce back he can’t be that bad again!” like they did with Kapanen.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN

Eric the Mauve posted:

I'm rewatching the 2016 Pens Cup run and what really strikes you is how many players played crucial roles on that team that Mike Sullivan, now that he's a Tenured Head Coach, would absolutely not permit to play on his team now. Justin Schultz. Carl Hagelin. Phil the Thrill Kessel, of course. Olli Maatta was 21 then and played 18 a night when he was healthy--2023 Sullivan would not have let him play any significant minutes at all.

But in 2016 Sullivan was just an interim coach and had to play the players he was given. And they were perfect for his system. He has such a good system but has no real understanding of why it works.

Because it's Management's job to also recognize what does and doesn't make the system work. 'Give me players that can skate' was what, allegedly, Sullivan said. So they turned the corpse of Scuderri into Daley and Perron into Hagelin. Also, to your point, Sullivan brought up Conor Sheary, Guentzel, and Rust. The impact from that infusion of youth and speed can not be understated. But now... yes... Sullivan has permanent coaches brain. Full of veteran leadership and has been 'been there done that experience' completely ruining the system. Of course, management, has been a huge part in facilitating that as well.

Simplex
Jun 29, 2003

Lehkonen is out 4-6 weeks which makes the Avs not addressing their Top 6 forward depth at the deadline just :discourse:

Good Soldier Svejk
Jul 5, 2010

Never been a coach so good that they haven't let "this worked before" get in the way of "this isn't working now"

shyduck
Oct 3, 2003


Has one GM ever ruined two teams in the same state/province before

Good Soldier Svejk
Jul 5, 2010

shyduck posted:

Has one GM ever ruined two teams in the same state/province before

Lou Lam comes close with his end of devils tenure/to the Islanders but it's a different state (just barely) and he was wildly successful with the devils before becoming poo poo

Hextall is a special case of never being good at his job and also somehow getting a second chance by an immediately adjacent opponent, it's kinda baffling to reflect on

like hey, remember that organization that we've been way more successful than for the last decade - let's get their GM over here

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
I mean Rutherford's track record was even worse than Hextall's when the Pens hired him, the Canes were awful and had made the playoffs one (1) time in 10 years.

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011

Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land




Connor Bedard Sweepstakes will be settled on May 8

I can't wait 2 more months

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
The Islanders have had their most success in decades under Lou, hard to say he ruined them even if it's trending south now.

CBJSprague24
Dec 5, 2010

another game at nationwide arena. everybody keeps asking me if they can fuck the cannon. buddy, they don't even let me fuck it

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

Connor Bedard Sweepstakes will be settled on May 8

I can't wait 2 more months

Commence clenching. :ohdear:

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?

CBJSprague24 posted:

Commence clenching. :ohdear:

Honestly you should really only be sweating Columbus's remaining schedule. Bedard is Bedard but missing out on the top 3 (maybe top 4 depending on how you feel about Carlsson) is the real danger. Finishing bottom 2 is huge.

Although saying that it's quite possible a bunch of teams just pass on Michkov because of the Russian thing and then he Jagrs all of them and tears it up with like, Washington or some poo poo.

Blackbelt Bobman
Jul 17, 2004

I don't need friends! I've been
manipulatin' you since the start!
All so I can something,
something X-Blade!


https://twitter.com/russohockey/status/1636082248590979073?s=46&t=ZmcWuigp8va-srUE4rOQ8Q

CBJSprague24
Dec 5, 2010

another game at nationwide arena. everybody keeps asking me if they can fuck the cannon. buddy, they don't even let me fuck it

T-Bone posted:

Honestly you should really only be sweating Columbus's remaining schedule. Bedard is Bedard but missing out on the top 3 (maybe top 4 depending on how you feel about Carlsson) is the real danger. Finishing bottom 2 is huge.

Although saying that it's quite possible a bunch of teams just pass on Michkov because of the Russian thing and then he Jagrs all of them and tears it up with like, Washington or some poo poo.

quote:

Thu, Mar 16
@Los Angeles
Fri, Mar 17
@Anaheim
Sun, Mar 19
@Vegas
Tue, Mar 21
@Washington
Fri, Mar 24
vsNew York Islanders
Sat, Mar 25
@Montreal
Tue, Mar 28
@New York Rangers
Thu, Mar 30
@Boston
Sat, Apr 1
vsFlorida
Sun, Apr 2
vsOttawa
Tue, Apr 4
@Toronto
Thu, Apr 6
@New Jersey
Sat, Apr 8
vsNew York Rangers
Tue, Apr 11
@Philadelphia
Thu, Apr 13
vsPittsburgh
Fri, Apr 14
vsBuffalo

Fortunately, there are a ton of loseable games on that schedule.

Lose as many as possible, but give the guys a couple wins to feel good about, and let's finish 30th or worse.

shyduck
Oct 3, 2003


Good time to mention that Carson Briere is a 23 year old man

Habibi
Dec 8, 2004

We have the capability to make San Jose's first Cup Champion.

The Sharks could be that Champion.
It's a pretty sad testament to the state of affairs of celebrity parents in this day and age that I'm pleasantly surprised by something as basic as one acknowledging and taking responsibility for their kids' lovely behavior instead of coming out with some flavor of "wheelchairs are made for pushing" defense.

shyduck posted:

Good time to mention that Carson Briere is a 23 year old man

lol wait he's not like fifteen or something?

edit: woof I really gotta change my av

Chad Sexington
May 26, 2005

I think he made a beautiful post and did a great job and he is good.

T-Bone posted:

Honestly you should really only be sweating Columbus's remaining schedule. Bedard is Bedard but missing out on the top 3 (maybe top 4 depending on how you feel about Carlsson) is the real danger. Finishing bottom 2 is huge.

Although saying that it's quite possible a bunch of teams just pass on Michkov because of the Russian thing and then he Jagrs all of them and tears it up with like, Washington or some poo poo.

Give us all your overlooked Russians.

Hoping Miroshnichenko gives the AHL a shot next year.

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Habibi posted:

It's a pretty sad testament to the state of affairs of celebrity parents in this day and age that I'm pleasantly surprised by something as basic as one acknowledging and taking responsibility for their kids' lovely behavior instead of coming out with some flavor of "wheelchairs are made for pushing" defense.

lol wait he's not like fifteen or something?

edit: woof I really gotta change my av

Although "wheelchairs are made for pushing" would be the most Flyers response you'd expect

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

HAHA! WOOOOOOO WOOO!
Fun Shoe
You know, I genuinely think the Canucks have a decent top 6 forward + top pair, and I'm kinda curious, so I was gonna try to do an slight effort post on "could they be fixed this summer?", using Dom's GSVA score and some back-of-the-napkin armchair predictions. But...(Charles Barkley seeing Sammy Sosa voice) drat. Here is the team right now by GSVA:

quote:

Kuzmenko (3.2) - Pettersson (4.8) - Boeser (0.5)
Podkolzin (?) - Miller (1.7) - Beauvillier (0.9)
Aman (-0.9) - Dries (?) - Garland (1.2)
Joshua (-0.4) - Di Giuseppe (?) - Kravtsov (0.4)
ex/IR: Mikheyev (1.7), Pearson (-0.7), McDonough, Studnicka, Ferland (?)

Hughes (3.1) - Hronek (2.1)
Wolanin (?) - Myers (-1.8)
Dermott (-1.0) - Bear (0.8)
ex/IR: OEL (-1.5), Poolman (?), Burroughs

Demko (-1.1)
Martin (-4.1)
ex: Delia

Currently, their roster next year is pretty set and they have zero cap space with only really needing to re-sign Bear and Kravtsov. If it were me, I would:

-buy out OEL (saves 8.1m in cap hit next year, then 5.7m, then 3.5m for 2 years, then back to 5.7m for 4 years)
-trade Myers to Arizona after July 1 (his salary is only 1m)
-trade Boeser
-re-sign Kravtsov for 1m
-re-sign Bear for 2m
-hope Poolman doesn't play again?

That would open up almost 21m for next year. After that, the team is committed to:

quote:

Kuzmenko (5.5m) - Pettersson (7.35m) - x
Mikheyev (4.75m) - Miller (8m) - Beauvillier (4.15m)
Pearson (3.25m) - x - Garland (4.95m)
Joshua (825k) - Studnicka (762.5k) - Kravtsov (1m)
total: 40.5375m

Hughes (7.85m) - Hronek (4.4m)
x - Bear (2m)
x - Myers (6m)
total: 20.25m

Demko (5m)
x
total: 5m

So...that's $59.7875m in cap hit. Assuming an 83.5m cap, that's $23.7125m to fill 5 spots. Not bad?

Some available free agents and trade targets include (with last 3 years of GSVA):

quote:

ROR (2.6/2.3/1.0)
Gostisbehere (1.5/0.0/0.4)
Domi (-0.2/0.8/0.6)
Orlov (1.1/2.7/1.6)
J. Staal (1.3/1.7/1.6)
Hayes (1.1/0.4/1.1)
Schmaltz (1.7/2.4/2.3)
Soucy (1.2/0.7/0.4)
Gaudreau (1.9/1.5/0.6)

I think a reasonable plan would be:

quote:

-trade for Schmaltz, adding 5.85
-move Miller to wing since I keep hearing he sucks at center
-sign Orlov, adding 6.5
-sign Soucy, adding 4
-sign Gaudreau, adding 3.5
-sign decent backup goalie, adding 1m
-re-sign Burroughs, adding 1m
-use one of Podkolzin/Hoglander, adding 925k
-sign a cheap 7th defenseman, adding 800k

...which would leave the Canucks with around ~175k. Now, using some back-of-the-napkin regression (Demko returning to normal, Miller getting slightly better, Pettersson not playing like a God) + predictions, they could have a lineup next year of:

quote:

Kuzmenko (3) - Pettersson (3.75) - Mikheyev (2)
Miller (2.5) - Schmaltz (1.7) - Beauvillier (1.5)
Podkolzin (0.5) - Gaudreau (1.0) - Garland (2)
Pearson (0.5) - Studnicka (-1.0) - Kravtsov (0.5)
ex: Joshua (0.25)

Hughes (3.0) - Hronek (1.5)
Orlov(1.75) - Bear (0.5)
Soucy(1.0) - Burroughs (0.0)
ex: Wolanin

Demko (2.0)
Rittich (0.1)

Which is...not bad? A good coach could get them there? For reference, this is what Dom's model ranks as having a 23% chance to win the West:



and this is their guide for the Average Cup Winner checklist:



They would be on the lower end of this, but they would have pretty much all of those pieces. Their cap situation after doing this would not have the makings of a permanent contender. They would have to hope for a good economy, for Orlov/Miller/etc. to age gracefully, and to hire a good coach.


Instead, they'll probably draft like 12th, re-sign Tocchet, hope OEL bounces back, not trade Boeser, Myers will have Arizona on his NTC, and who knows. But it could be done? Those OEL/Myers contracts are so goddamn bad.

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

HAHA! WOOOOOOO WOOO!
Fun Shoe

T-Bone posted:

Although saying that it's quite possible a bunch of teams just pass on Michkov because of the Russian thing and then he Jagrs all of them and tears it up with like, Washington or some poo poo.

i am hardcore manifesting this to happen for the Rangers. it happened with Cherepanov except he died. someone needs to combo break this:

malholtra
brendl
lundmark
jessiman
andersson
kratvsov
kakko
lafrieniere

although once it hits the 15th pick it's not so bad:

korpikoski
cherepanov (RIP)
kreider
miller
Chytil

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

While I appreciate the optimism, the issue is that all of Myers, Garland and Boeser have negative value due to their contracts. If there was an option to offload any of them without a significant sweetener and/or retention it would've happened already. Can they afford to jettison their 2024 1st and probably Podkolzin and Hoglander too to get compliant? I think not.

Their issue isn't in forward depth, it's their defence and penalty killers. Any changes need to come in the form of several top 4 D and at least two 3rd line forwards who can penalty kill. Sadly those are among the most sought after positions in the sport and don't come cheap. They're also short a 2C which are effectively only found at the top of the draft.

As for buying out OEL, it gives them some space next year but comes at the expense of the Pettersson extension which is due after next year. Word is he will get around $12m per. They can't afford $5m+ of dead space over the duration of that deal. Either OEL improves or their find a way to LTIR him forever. He's not getting bought out. The most likely buyout candidate is Garland.

Also Pearson's career is over he's off the books.

I am not refuting that the Canucks have a decent core. They have a star goaltender and what will likely end up being 4 ppg players. The issue is they have so much garbage money on the roster signed too long they can't do anything about it. The solution is to wait it out and hope guys on cheap deals contribute, but of course ownership doesn't want that. They've worked the cap year after year borrowing from the future thinking that this time the top guys will be enough to get them over the hump to no success but lots of debt. Forgive me for thinking that somehow this summer will be different in any way.

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WeaponX
Jul 28, 2008




Lol daddy feeling the need to speak for his adult son and tell you that he is sorry is so loving pathetic and gives you at least one reason his kid is such a prick

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