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GramCracker posted:Other than looking like a moron in his thumbnail images, what’s the deal with this guy? He just flip flops on his views too much or doesn’t know what he’s actually talking about? Wasn't he an FTX shill?
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# ? Mar 15, 2023 02:12 |
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# ? Jun 8, 2024 06:35 |
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options aren't that hard, a real broker would give you short shares.
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# ? Mar 15, 2023 02:45 |
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mrmcd posted:OCC published this memo for SBNY: https://infomemo.theocc.com/infomemos?number=52110 Digging into this a bit more, I interpret this: 'if it is not possible for the delivering Clearing Member to effect delivery of the SBNY shares on the designated settlement date, then the settlement obligations of both delivering and receiving Members shall be delayed until such time as OCC designates a new exercise settlement date, settlement method and/or settlement value. " As meaning that if Robinhood can't deliver the shares to the counterparty (and make this guy short worthless shares), then they need to delay the settlement. Also some language in there about a cash settlement if nothing else can be done. I think it should work out. Although im interested to hear how people got screwed on those Russian stocks.
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# ? Mar 15, 2023 03:02 |
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pmchem posted:here ya go a good time to pull up this old post from the past stock thread, because, loving credit suisse! https://twitter.com/Trade_The_News/status/1635947042320121857?s=20 https://twitter.com/Trade_The_News/status/1635538996179640320?s=20
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# ? Mar 15, 2023 13:30 |
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also this seems relevant given the continued weakness in financials today: https://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2017/01/when-do-you-average-down.html from John Hempton's personal blog, which has a few real gems. it's a long post so I won't quote the full thing but it basically discusses how to think between two different points of view: quote:Warren Buffett is famously fond of "averaging down". If you liked it at $10 you should love it at $6. If it goes down "just buy more". And in the value investing canon you will not find that much objection to that view.
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# ? Mar 15, 2023 17:18 |
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Sold my SCHW shares when my position hit +20%, overall easy money for 2 days. Now that means they will go another +30% or become a memestonk because I took my profits and didn't get greedy.
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# ? Mar 15, 2023 18:21 |
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mrmcd posted:Sold my SCHW shares when my position hit +20%, overall easy money for 2 days. I got into that call Still got a few days here, maybe CS going tits up will spark some "ok uhhh .... now we gotta make sure all the banks outside the big 4-ish don't fail too, this isn't great" interventions.
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# ? Mar 15, 2023 19:07 |
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DeadFatDuckFat posted:Same, it looks good to me. Isn't Citi one of those "do not buy" bank stocks? This was discussed at length in the last thread maybe a month before it got closed
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# ? Mar 15, 2023 19:32 |
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Hadlock posted:Isn't Citi one of those "do not buy" bank stocks? This was discussed at length in the last thread maybe a month before it got closed I'll bite: why? Its not 2008 and they are way more regulated. That being said $C is a 2x return in 3-5 years pick, not a 50% return in a week pick. For what its worth, I've got ~$1k invested, so consider me biased
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# ? Mar 15, 2023 21:55 |
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I remember Citigroup trading for like $1.xx after 2008. They did a big reverse split and haven't really done much since then. I thought about buying some then, I'm glad I did not.
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# ? Mar 16, 2023 04:39 |
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Jows posted:I remember Citigroup trading for like $1.xx after 2008. They did a big reverse split and haven't really done much since then. I thought about buying some then, I'm glad I did not. I thought you were exaggerating but nope it really has been mostly flat for 15 years.
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# ? Mar 16, 2023 05:12 |
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There's a really good post in the last thread explaining it but I can't be bothered to find it right now. Thread consensus at the time was "this stock is unlikely to ever trade much higher than this" which is why I'm throwing the yellow flag at people suddenly investing in it as a future growth stock.
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# ? Mar 16, 2023 05:58 |
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Unrelated to any value analysis my wife recently interviewed for a job at Citi. After completing a hypothetical case study the hiring manager called her back and told her she was too qualified to work there and would just be miserable and unmotivated. I can't imagine wtf their corporate culture must be like if that's just a normal acceptable thing to tell job candidates.
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# ? Mar 16, 2023 13:03 |
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I invested in my first ETF today. 20 Shares of SJIM.
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# ? Mar 16, 2023 14:15 |
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daslog posted:I invested in my first ETF today. 20 Shares of SJIM. I wanted to make a Randy Savage joke, but holy poo poo this is better
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# ? Mar 16, 2023 14:55 |
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mrmcd posted:Unrelated to any value analysis my wife recently interviewed for a job at Citi. After completing a hypothetical case study the hiring manager called her back and told her she was too qualified to work there and would just be miserable and unmotivated. I can't imagine wtf their corporate culture must be like if that's just a normal acceptable thing to tell job candidates. if you can say -- what job title or general type of position? this is an interesting anecdote re citi in general, I don't think anyone here was interested in it as a classic "growth" stock. it's a G-SIB trading far under typical tangible book. its future does not depend on sofi-style growth. lol hope they don't get tanked by credit suisse, tho
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# ? Mar 16, 2023 15:12 |
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man i thought i was hot poo poo buying first republic at $30
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# ? Mar 16, 2023 16:18 |
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pmchem posted:it's a G-SIB trading far under typical tangible book Yeah, basically this. I'm still in longish term, large cap company mode. Actual growth companies look like they're gonna be in the suck for awhile longer and I already have enough exposure in those rn (i.e. not that much)
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# ? Mar 16, 2023 16:26 |
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Hadlock posted:There's a really good post in the last thread explaining it but I can't be bothered to find it right now. Thread consensus at the time was "this stock is unlikely to ever trade much higher than this" which is why I'm throwing the yellow flag at people suddenly investing in it as a future growth stock. I don't remember the post but glibly for over 50 years Citibank has managed to spectacularly wrong-foot every crisis, their company motto is "You've gotta dance while the music is playing" but while JPM leaves the party early to get on a lifeboat and GS buys life insurance policies on all the passengers and pays somebody to tow icebergs, C never catches on that the band plans on going down with the ship. They are always the most complicated and internationally exposed US bank and they would have gone under like 5 times except they've been too big to fail since long before that was a term anybody used. Less glibly: https://www.occ.gov/publications-an...y-qtr3-2022.pdf, you can read the whole thing but page 20 is relevant here. They have $46 trillion in notional derivatives exposure. As is always the case notional derivatives exposure is a red herring and is hedged and offset in perfect equipoise and real exposure is 0. That goes for JPM, CS, GS, and BOA too. Also always, somehow that never turns out to be quite true and a tiny loss on $46 trillion somehow turns out to be a lot.
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# ? Mar 16, 2023 16:32 |
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Head Bee Guy posted:man i thought i was hot poo poo buying first republic at $30 It's like buying Bitcoin!
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# ? Mar 16, 2023 16:33 |
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I'm not a professional bank examiner or anything, but I feel like if FRC survives this week, it'll probably stay around as a going concern. That doesn't mean the equity won't have to be heavily diluted because this is absolutely the worst time you want to be raising capital as a bank. However, the BTFP is only giving banks a year of breathing room to sort out their balance sheet, and they might not have a choice. I wouldn't touch the stock unless you wanted to clench your rear end in a top hat real tight and trade the volatility.
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# ? Mar 16, 2023 16:42 |
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# ? Mar 16, 2023 16:59 |
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pmchem posted:if you can say -- what job title or general type of position? this is an interesting anecdote this is a semi-public forum so I don't wanna burn any bridges by accident. I'll say it was an internal group that was focused on doing research and analysis about certain aspects of how the company operates, then presenting that research with recommendations to executive and other high level leadership audiences. It wasn't a client facing role or a retail branch position or anything like that. It's also nowhere near what I've done for a career so anything specific to the job I could be wrong about.
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# ? Mar 16, 2023 19:43 |
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Hadlock posted:There's a really good post in the last thread explaining it but I can't be bothered to find it right now. Thread consensus at the time was "this stock is unlikely to ever trade much higher than this" which is why I'm throwing the yellow flag at people suddenly investing in it as a future growth stock. Ok here it is. Search function does not work on mobile. I haven't done a nested quote in a long while Agronox posted:
Bolding of that last sentence for emphasis mine This post is only tangentally related but gonna quote it anyways pmchem posted:here ya go and then finally some slapfight in the last thread (circa 2015, the internet is old wow,) speculating why citi did a split, not going to quote it because this post is already too long https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?noseen=1&threadid=3259986&pagenumber=454&perpage=40&highlight=citi#post440050556
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# ? Mar 16, 2023 20:26 |
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"Part of it is, if you're a bank with a ton of long duration fixed-rate assets and haven't been able to hedge away all the interest rate risk, those book values are going down right now." Agronox with the prescient post from almost a year ago.
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# ? Mar 16, 2023 20:33 |
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citi got a new ceo and totally changed its long-term strategy in 2021, so I don't think the 2015 discussions are relevant. while citi has to maintain large capital buffers, so do JPM (even larger) and other banks like MS. so it's not a unique problem and some of the big ones have done quite well (about half of the USA G-SIBs have outperformed the S&P over the past year). berkshire initiated its position in $C in 1Q2022 after seeing the direction the new CEO was taking things. as for book values, historically, $C has been a good buy if its P/(tangible book value) got < 0.6 or so. and yes, its TBV has been increasing despite the interest rate environment. I mean sure, it might not be a great idea for all sorts of reasons. do your own dd. and I know hadlock is just making up for all the poo poo I gave him about sofi back in the day. I just saw a near-covid-lows valuation discount and decided to move on it. it had been on my shortlist for a while, BUT, and a REALLY BIG BUT, I hadn't done anything because they're trying to navigate a divestiture of their Banamex subsidiary before restarting buybacks. I was actually impressed with how cautious they were about that in their last earnings call transcript. So maybe it would've been wise to keep on waiting for that to be resolved. But, it was hard to pass up getting in at a price under Berkshire during the middle of a crisis I (so far, correctly) did not think would lead to runs on Wall St banks. I guess I wait
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# ? Mar 16, 2023 21:18 |
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Since you are following it a bit closer than I am - do you know the strategy behind the divestiture of their "legacy franchises" (Banamex, etc)? Is it a move to become a smaller and less globally significant (and presumably regulated a little lighter)? Or just to exit international consumer banking in general? They dont appear to be losing money in the segment, though its not terribly profitable either.
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# ? Mar 16, 2023 21:58 |
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Mods: where's our promised current events thread In its absence, since we are bank chatting here, from this afternoon: Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BNY-Mellon, PNC Bank, State Street, Truist and U.S. Bank to make uninsured deposits totaling $30 billion into First Republic Bank
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# ? Mar 16, 2023 23:40 |
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drk posted:Mods: where's our promised current events thread Thank you for your uninsured service, bankers. Maybe I get that big schwab pop tomorrow.... especially because as a (mostly) brokerage, apparently they didn't have to pony up for this mess. as far as the discussion thread, you gotta make it! But it's all pmchem moderating it if you do, hah!
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# ? Mar 16, 2023 23:55 |
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time to find out if this is the the jp morgan recapitalization of 1907 or 1929 (i kid...probably) kind of wild that in the background of this developing bank liquidity crisis the us debt ceiling clock is quietly ticking down without much visible movement towards a resolution. i think the odds of either turning out catastrophically bad are rather low, but hoooo boy if i'm wrong
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# ? Mar 17, 2023 00:06 |
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drk posted:Mods: where's our promised current events thread I asked people about that over in the recession thread, really mixed feedback, so my conclusion there was that: pmchem posted:alright folks, thanks for the comments. based on the overall vibe, I'm not gonna start a new general econ thread now myself. but if someone else starts one and tries to make it work, well, it's a marketplace of ideas and I'm not gonna stop 'em. if someone DOES make such a thread, please clearly set it up as global economics and current events, not a general 'discussion' thread. because technically BFC already has a daily discussion thread although it's not often used. but yeah check people's comments on the thread idea over in the recession thread. I'll get to your $C question in a minute
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# ? Mar 17, 2023 00:11 |
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drk posted:Since you are following it a bit closer than I am - do you know the strategy behind the divestiture of their "legacy franchises" (Banamex, etc)? ok, so on the strategy, pretty much my entire understanding comes from reading their 4Q22 documents. so someone else could step in and provide more detail here (please!). presentation: https://www.citigroup.com/rcs/citigpa/storage/public/20230113-4Q22%20Earnings%20Presentation_20230224.pdf transcript: https://www.citigroup.com/rcs/citigpa/storage/public/tr230113b.pdf filing: https://www.citigroup.com/rcs/citigpa/storage/public/10k20221231.pdf plus a march 8 2023 interview with CFO which I'm just now seeing: https://www.citigroup.com/rcs/citigpa/storage/public/RBC%20Capital%20Markets%20Financial%20Institutions%20Conference%20Transcript.pdf first, slides on the long-term strategy and divestiture progress: I basically read that as them wanting to get out of low return-on-equity emerging market businesses to focus on stuff like what Morgan Stanley does or whatever. Ambitious but... a good business model? now the analyst exchange. I found this whole thing very entertaining. Apparently Mayo is very well-respected: he was on Bloomberg Radio this week (Surveillance in the morning) discussing SIVB's collapse, etc. I highlighted the parts that caught my eye re: banamex and buybacks. so basically you got the primo bank analyst asking "why aren't you idiots just ignoring banamex and buying back stock, it's so cheap" and citi is like "we are sticking to our deliberate and conservative strategy and doing right by our long-term shareholders" I dunno. maybe they ARE idiots. and maybe they will get dunked on trying to be more like MS; if berkshire sells I'll dump this like a hot potato. I did some twitter searching for banamex news and it seems like the mexican government is involved, slowing things up. so my plan was to wait for some deal to be announced there and then buy in AFTER that but before their next earnings or buyback announcement. then, well, SIVB crisis hit, all bank stocks tanked, and I decided to just go for it. maybe too early but, well, I did not want to sit this week out, and citi could go to zero and I'd be just fine (size appropriately!). and just maybe they're being prudent and wise stewards who will turn this sucker around from its current p/tbv.
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# ? Mar 17, 2023 00:32 |
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Thanks, that was interesting. I usually read the quarterly investor presentations for the companies I invest in, but not always the commentary. There definitely is a little extra color there, as they'd say. Re: current events thread - I definitely didn't see the very important "not" in "I'm not gonna start a new general econ thread now myself".
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# ? Mar 17, 2023 01:49 |
I sure picked an exciting time to
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# ? Mar 17, 2023 01:54 |
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drk posted:Thanks, that was interesting. I usually read the quarterly investor presentations for the companies I invest in, but not always the commentary. There definitely is a little extra color there, as they'd say. man if I had more time I'd read more transcripts. I forget what started me on it, but I read some cleveland-cliffs transcripts last year (or '21?). they are hilarious, look them up. the CEO just hurls nonstop insults at analysts he thinks are being dumb. A++ need to read more in '23.
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# ? Mar 17, 2023 01:55 |
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yellen handled this grilling about regional/community banks super poorly and it's going viral, the crisis may be extended to next week https://twitter.com/theemikehobart/status/1636494845144432643
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# ? Mar 17, 2023 03:54 |
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pmchem posted:alright folks, thanks for the comments. based on the overall vibe, I'm not gonna start a new general econ thread now myself. but if someone else starts one and tries to make it work, well, it's a marketplace of ideas and I'm not gonna stop 'em. I did the needful created the thread we've been dancing around since mid-2022 https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4027219
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# ? Mar 17, 2023 04:57 |
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unrelated, i'm gonna be liquidating my ~precious~ sofi stock, taking a ~$3.5/share loss, mostly out of duress, putting it towards a down payment on a house holding on to my sofi calls* because no point in liquidating those at this point
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# ? Mar 17, 2023 05:03 |
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pmchem posted:yellen handled this grilling about regional/community banks super poorly and it's going viral, the crisis may be extended to next week I would be inclined to believe it's plausible the issue will extend but I'd also be skeptical that a republican grilling yellen during this crisis is anything more than the soundbite.
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# ? Mar 17, 2023 05:25 |
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# ? Jun 8, 2024 06:35 |
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notwithoutmyanus posted:I would be inclined to believe it's plausible the issue will extend but I'd also be skeptical that a republican grilling yellen during this crisis is anything more than the soundbite. He was pretty much on point tho, except the "red Chinese" bit, I could have done without that. They should have just come out and said that all deposits everywhere are guaranteed for the next year, and we are going to require banks to better educate people about what is covered and what isn't going forward. This implicit herding of everyone to the four or five biggest banks is the weirdest goddamn thing. Are they really gonna let a wave of small banks go under here, and not cover their depositors? Probably not, so make it the policy and stop the flight.
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# ? Mar 17, 2023 05:33 |