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The Door Frame
Dec 5, 2011

I don't know man everytime I go to the gym here there are like two huge dudes with raging high and tights snorting Nitro-tech off of each other's rock hard abs.

GramCracker posted:

Other than looking like a moron in his thumbnail images, what’s the deal with this guy? He just flip flops on his views too much or doesn’t know what he’s actually talking about?

Wasn't he an FTX shill?

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Toalpaz
Mar 20, 2012

Peace through overwhelming determination
options aren't that hard, a real broker would give you short shares.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

mrmcd posted:

OCC published this memo for SBNY: https://infomemo.theocc.com/infomemos?number=52110


Aiui:

1) There's no restrictions on settling contracts

2) However NSCC has stopped settlements for this stock so OCC isn't going to be a central clearing house for this. If a broker needs to exercise a contract you have to:
- Ask OCC who their counterparty is.
- Contact that broker and settle the contract, which means swapping stock for cash.

None of this works if you don't actually hold the stock though, which this angry Twitter person does not.

Digging into this a bit more, I interpret this:

'if it is not possible for the delivering Clearing Member to effect delivery of the SBNY shares on the designated settlement date, then the settlement obligations of both delivering and receiving Members shall be delayed until such time as OCC designates a new exercise settlement date, settlement method and/or settlement value. "

As meaning that if Robinhood can't deliver the shares to the counterparty (and make this guy short worthless shares), then they need to delay the settlement.

Also some language in there about a cash settlement if nothing else can be done.

I think it should work out. Although im interested to hear how people got screwed on those Russian stocks.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


pmchem posted:

here ya go



ally: just here to chill and provide a HYSA, decent loans, and some brokerage stuff if maybe you want it?

citi: boring, woman CEO, warren invested in it, and it actually just had a nice Q2 beat and raise. sometimes fat fingers a trade.

barclays: purveyor of exotic financial ETNs and other random poo poo, basically has no idea what it's doing, but is british so probably has nice tea and service

jpm: big boy on the block, does everything, will gently caress you doing it but in a polite and law-abiding fashion.

bnp paribas: french, will sell dumb structured notes to your financial advisors, will give loans to commodity traders as long as it doesn't cause them headaches, goes out for a smoke a lot.

db: you want us to wrap some exotic poo poo for jim simons to evade taxes? sure. front russian money for trump? sounds exciting. spot a housing crisis and then tell everyone else to bet against mortgage CDS's? that's our bag. what else you got? let's do it.

ccb: world's largest slush fund for anti-capitalist anti-freedom state control of persons and economy. by definition lawful.

wells: we didn't KNOW we were violating the law, can you please remove our capital controls so we can find some new way to gently caress people over?

credit suisse: so bad at hiding their evil that it's all scandals and incompetence all the time. archegos? more like archeGOT

a good time to pull up this old post from the past stock thread, because, loving credit suisse!

https://twitter.com/Trade_The_News/status/1635947042320121857?s=20

https://twitter.com/Trade_The_News/status/1635538996179640320?s=20

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


also this seems relevant given the continued weakness in financials today:
https://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2017/01/when-do-you-average-down.html
from John Hempton's personal blog, which has a few real gems.

it's a long post so I won't quote the full thing but it basically discusses how to think between two different points of view:

quote:

Warren Buffett is famously fond of "averaging down". If you liked it at $10 you should love it at $6. If it goes down "just buy more". And in the value investing canon you will not find that much objection to that view.
But averaging down has been the destroyer of many a value investor. Indeed averaging down is the iconic way in which value investors destroy themselves (and their clients).

(words)

At the other end traders who (correctly) think that people who average down die. The most famous exposition of this is a photo of Paul Tudor Jones - with a piece of paper glued to his wall stating that "losers average losers".

(words)

At a very big picture: averaging down when you are right is very sweet, averaging down when you are wrong is a disaster.
At the first pick the question then is "when are you wrong?", but this is a silly question. If you knew you were wrong you would never have bought the position in the first place.
So the question becomes is not "are you wrong". That is not going to add anything analytically.
Instead the question is "under what circumstances are you wrong" and "how would you tell"?

mrmcd
Feb 22, 2003

Pictured: The only good cop (a fictional one).

Sold my SCHW shares when my position hit +20%, overall easy money for 2 days.

Now that means they will go another +30% or become a memestonk because I took my profits and didn't get greedy.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

mrmcd posted:

Sold my SCHW shares when my position hit +20%, overall easy money for 2 days.

Now that means they will go another +30% or become a memestonk because I took my profits and didn't get greedy.


I got into that call a day two days too early. Thursday at close no bueno, premature entry. Really thought a "banks are ok, we are ok, everyone chill" message would come way faster! But when it came, the "banks are hosed, depositors are ok" theme wasn't quite what I was expecting!

Still got a few days here, maybe CS going tits up will spark some "ok uhhh .... now we gotta make sure all the banks outside the big 4-ish don't fail too, this isn't great" interventions.

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

DeadFatDuckFat posted:

Same, it looks good to me.

Isn't Citi one of those "do not buy" bank stocks? This was discussed at length in the last thread maybe a month before it got closed

drk
Jan 16, 2005

Hadlock posted:

Isn't Citi one of those "do not buy" bank stocks? This was discussed at length in the last thread maybe a month before it got closed

I'll bite: why? Its not 2008 and they are way more regulated.

That being said $C is a 2x return in 3-5 years pick, not a 50% return in a week pick.

For what its worth, I've got ~$1k invested, so consider me biased

Jows
May 8, 2002

I remember Citigroup trading for like $1.xx after 2008. They did a big reverse split and haven't really done much since then. I thought about buying some then, I'm glad I did not.

mrmcd
Feb 22, 2003

Pictured: The only good cop (a fictional one).

Jows posted:

I remember Citigroup trading for like $1.xx after 2008. They did a big reverse split and haven't really done much since then. I thought about buying some then, I'm glad I did not.

I thought you were exaggerating but nope it really has been mostly flat for 15 years.

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

There's a really good post in the last thread explaining it but I can't be bothered to find it right now. Thread consensus at the time was "this stock is unlikely to ever trade much higher than this" which is why I'm throwing the yellow flag at people suddenly investing in it as a future growth stock.

mrmcd
Feb 22, 2003

Pictured: The only good cop (a fictional one).

Unrelated to any value analysis my wife recently interviewed for a job at Citi. After completing a hypothetical case study the hiring manager called her back and told her she was too qualified to work there and would just be miserable and unmotivated. I can't imagine wtf their corporate culture must be like if that's just a normal acceptable thing to tell job candidates.

daslog
Dec 10, 2008

#essereFerrari
I invested in my first ETF today. 20 Shares of SJIM.

Red
Apr 15, 2003

Yeah, great at getting us into Wawa.

daslog posted:

I invested in my first ETF today. 20 Shares of SJIM.

I wanted to make a Randy Savage joke, but holy poo poo this is better

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


mrmcd posted:

Unrelated to any value analysis my wife recently interviewed for a job at Citi. After completing a hypothetical case study the hiring manager called her back and told her she was too qualified to work there and would just be miserable and unmotivated. I can't imagine wtf their corporate culture must be like if that's just a normal acceptable thing to tell job candidates.

if you can say -- what job title or general type of position? this is an interesting anecdote

re citi in general, I don't think anyone here was interested in it as a classic "growth" stock. it's a G-SIB trading far under typical tangible book. its future does not depend on sofi-style growth. lol hope they don't get tanked by credit suisse, tho

Head Bee Guy
Jun 12, 2011

Retarded for Busting
Grimey Drawer
man i thought i was hot poo poo buying first republic at $30

DeadFatDuckFat
Oct 29, 2012

This avatar brought to you by the 'save our dead gay forums' foundation.


pmchem posted:

it's a G-SIB trading far under typical tangible book

Yeah, basically this.

I'm still in longish term, large cap company mode. Actual growth companies look like they're gonna be in the suck for awhile longer and I already have enough exposure in those rn (i.e. not that much)

Tokyo Sex Whale
Oct 9, 2012

"My butt smells like vanilla ice cream"

Hadlock posted:

There's a really good post in the last thread explaining it but I can't be bothered to find it right now. Thread consensus at the time was "this stock is unlikely to ever trade much higher than this" which is why I'm throwing the yellow flag at people suddenly investing in it as a future growth stock.

I don't remember the post but glibly for over 50 years Citibank has managed to spectacularly wrong-foot every crisis, their company motto is "You've gotta dance while the music is playing" but while JPM leaves the party early to get on a lifeboat and GS buys life insurance policies on all the passengers and pays somebody to tow icebergs, C never catches on that the band plans on going down with the ship. They are always the most complicated and internationally exposed US bank and they would have gone under like 5 times except they've been too big to fail since long before that was a term anybody used.

Less glibly:

https://www.occ.gov/publications-an...y-qtr3-2022.pdf, you can read the whole thing but page 20 is relevant here.

They have $46 trillion in notional derivatives exposure. As is always the case notional derivatives exposure is a red herring and is hedged and offset in perfect equipoise and real exposure is 0. That goes for JPM, CS, GS, and BOA too. Also always, somehow that never turns out to be quite true and a tiny loss on $46 trillion somehow turns out to be a lot.

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Head Bee Guy posted:

man i thought i was hot poo poo buying first republic at $30

It's like buying Bitcoin!

mrmcd
Feb 22, 2003

Pictured: The only good cop (a fictional one).

I'm not a professional bank examiner or anything, but I feel like if FRC survives this week, it'll probably stay around as a going concern. That doesn't mean the equity won't have to be heavily diluted because this is absolutely the worst time you want to be raising capital as a bank. However, the BTFP is only giving banks a year of breathing room to sort out their balance sheet, and they might not have a choice. I wouldn't touch the stock unless you wanted to clench your rear end in a top hat real tight and trade the volatility.

Head Bee Guy
Jun 12, 2011

Retarded for Busting
Grimey Drawer

mrmcd
Feb 22, 2003

Pictured: The only good cop (a fictional one).

pmchem posted:

if you can say -- what job title or general type of position? this is an interesting anecdote

this is a semi-public forum so I don't wanna burn any bridges by accident. I'll say it was an internal group that was focused on doing research and analysis about certain aspects of how the company operates, then presenting that research with recommendations to executive and other high level leadership audiences. It wasn't a client facing role or a retail branch position or anything like that. It's also nowhere near what I've done for a career so anything specific to the job I could be wrong about.

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Hadlock posted:

There's a really good post in the last thread explaining it but I can't be bothered to find it right now. Thread consensus at the time was "this stock is unlikely to ever trade much higher than this" which is why I'm throwing the yellow flag at people suddenly investing in it as a future growth stock.

Ok here it is. Search function does not work on mobile. I haven't done a nested quote in a long while

Agronox posted:


quote:

Can anyone explain why a profitable company would have a P/B < 1?

I'm looking at Citigroup ($C) who is trading at barely above a P/B of 0.5. The only thing I can think is they are expecting to take big losses on something, but the analyst forecasts I'm seeing are projecting them to remain profitable this year and next year.

That's actually a really difficult question to answer. Part of it is that investors still remember 2008, when Citi was burned hard, part of it is that in a situation where they'd actually liquidate they'd be unlikely to get book value for their assets, part of it is large banks are notoriously difficult to analyze and even going through every footnote to the financials it's hard to get a sense of their true derivatives positions and how they can blow up. Part of it is, if you're a bank with a ton of long duration fixed-rate assets and haven't been able to hedge away all the interest rate risk, those book values are going down right now.

quote:

I would think a P/B way under 1 would especially make a bank look like an attractive takeover target, but maybe thats not possible for regulatory reasons or something.

It is practically impossible for C to be acquired, because of regulatory reasons.

One of the successes of Western bank regulation in the aftermath of 2008 was putting the "too big to fail" banks under stricter supervision and safety measures. As a result, Citi has to maintain, among other things, higher capital buffers compared to most of it's competitors. At least from a regulatory perspective, the incentive for megabanks is to get smaller, not bigger.

Bolding of that last sentence for emphasis mine

This post is only tangentally related but gonna quote it anyways :allears:

pmchem posted:

here ya go



ally: just here to chill and provide a HYSA, decent loans, and some brokerage stuff if maybe you want it?
citi: boring, woman CEO, warren invested in it, and it actually just had a nice Q2 beat and raise. sometimes fat fingers a trade.
barclays: purveyor of exotic financial ETNs and other random poo poo, basically has no idea what it's doing, but is british so probably has nice tea and service
jpm: big boy on the block, does everything, will gently caress you doing it but in a polite and law-abiding fashion.
bnp paribas: french, will sell dumb structured notes to your financial advisors, will give loans to commodity traders as long as it doesn't cause them headaches, goes out for a smoke a lot.
db: you want us to wrap some exotic poo poo for jim simons to evade taxes? sure. front russian money for trump? sounds exciting. spot a housing crisis and then tell everyone else to bet against mortgage CDS's? that's our bag. what else you got? let's do it.
ccb: world's largest slush fund for anti-capitalist anti-freedom state control of persons and economy. by definition lawful.
wells: we didn't KNOW we were violating the law, can you please remove our capital controls so we can find some new way to gently caress people over?
credit suisse: so bad at hiding their evil that it's all scandals and incompetence all the time. archegos? more like archeGOT

and then finally some slapfight in the last thread (circa 2015, the internet is old wow,) speculating why citi did a split, not going to quote it because this post is already too long

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?noseen=1&threadid=3259986&pagenumber=454&perpage=40&highlight=citi#post440050556

Baddog
May 12, 2001
"Part of it is, if you're a bank with a ton of long duration fixed-rate assets and haven't been able to hedge away all the interest rate risk, those book values are going down right now."

Agronox with the prescient post from almost a year ago.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


citi got a new ceo and totally changed its long-term strategy in 2021, so I don't think the 2015 discussions are relevant. while citi has to maintain large capital buffers, so do JPM (even larger) and other banks like MS. so it's not a unique problem and some of the big ones have done quite well (about half of the USA G-SIBs have outperformed the S&P over the past year). berkshire initiated its position in $C in 1Q2022 after seeing the direction the new CEO was taking things.

as for book values,



historically, $C has been a good buy if its P/(tangible book value) got < 0.6 or so. and yes, its TBV has been increasing despite the interest rate environment.

I mean sure, it might not be a great idea for all sorts of reasons. do your own dd. and I know hadlock is just making up for all the poo poo I gave him about sofi back in the day. I just saw a near-covid-lows valuation discount and decided to move on it. it had been on my shortlist for a while, BUT, and a REALLY BIG BUT, I hadn't done anything because they're trying to navigate a divestiture of their Banamex subsidiary before restarting buybacks. I was actually impressed with how cautious they were about that in their last earnings call transcript. So maybe it would've been wise to keep on waiting for that to be resolved. But, it was hard to pass up getting in at a price under Berkshire during the middle of a crisis I (so far, correctly) did not think would lead to runs on Wall St banks. I guess I wait :shrug:

drk
Jan 16, 2005

Since you are following it a bit closer than I am - do you know the strategy behind the divestiture of their "legacy franchises" (Banamex, etc)?

Is it a move to become a smaller and less globally significant (and presumably regulated a little lighter)? Or just to exit international consumer banking in general? They dont appear to be losing money in the segment, though its not terribly profitable either.

drk
Jan 16, 2005
Mods: where's our promised current events thread

In its absence, since we are bank chatting here, from this afternoon: Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BNY-Mellon, PNC Bank, State Street, Truist and U.S. Bank to make uninsured deposits totaling $30 billion into First Republic Bank

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Thank you for your uninsured service, bankers. :patriot:

Maybe I get that big schwab pop tomorrow.... especially because as a (mostly) brokerage, apparently they didn't have to pony up for this mess.


as far as the discussion thread, you gotta make it! But it's all pmchem moderating it if you do, hah!

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
time to find out if this is the the jp morgan recapitalization of 1907 or 1929 (i kid...probably)

kind of wild that in the background of this developing bank liquidity crisis the us debt ceiling clock is quietly ticking down without much visible movement towards a resolution. i think the odds of either turning out catastrophically bad are rather low, but hoooo boy if i'm wrong

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


drk posted:

Mods: where's our promised current events thread

I asked people about that over in the recession thread, really mixed feedback, so my conclusion there was that:

pmchem posted:

alright folks, thanks for the comments. based on the overall vibe, I'm not gonna start a new general econ thread now myself. but if someone else starts one and tries to make it work, well, it's a marketplace of ideas and I'm not gonna stop 'em.

if someone DOES make such a thread, please clearly set it up as global economics and current events, not a general 'discussion' thread. because technically BFC already has a daily discussion thread although it's not often used. but yeah check people's comments on the thread idea over in the recession thread.


I'll get to your $C question in a minute

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


drk posted:

Since you are following it a bit closer than I am - do you know the strategy behind the divestiture of their "legacy franchises" (Banamex, etc)?

Is it a move to become a smaller and less globally significant (and presumably regulated a little lighter)? Or just to exit international consumer banking in general? They dont appear to be losing money in the segment, though its not terribly profitable either.

ok, so on the strategy, pretty much my entire understanding comes from reading their 4Q22 documents. so someone else could step in and provide more detail here (please!).

presentation:
https://www.citigroup.com/rcs/citigpa/storage/public/20230113-4Q22%20Earnings%20Presentation_20230224.pdf
transcript:
https://www.citigroup.com/rcs/citigpa/storage/public/tr230113b.pdf
filing:
https://www.citigroup.com/rcs/citigpa/storage/public/10k20221231.pdf

plus a march 8 2023 interview with CFO which I'm just now seeing:
https://www.citigroup.com/rcs/citigpa/storage/public/RBC%20Capital%20Markets%20Financial%20Institutions%20Conference%20Transcript.pdf

first, slides on the long-term strategy and divestiture progress:





I basically read that as them wanting to get out of low return-on-equity emerging market businesses to focus on stuff like what Morgan Stanley does or whatever. Ambitious but... a good business model?

now the analyst exchange. I found this whole thing very entertaining. Apparently Mayo is very well-respected: he was on Bloomberg Radio this week (Surveillance in the morning) discussing SIVB's collapse, etc. I highlighted the parts that caught my eye re: banamex and buybacks.





so basically you got the primo bank analyst asking "why aren't you idiots just ignoring banamex and buying back stock, it's so cheap" and citi is like "we are sticking to our deliberate and conservative strategy and doing right by our long-term shareholders"

I dunno. maybe they ARE idiots. and maybe they will get dunked on trying to be more like MS; if berkshire sells I'll dump this like a hot potato. I did some twitter searching for banamex news and it seems like the mexican government is involved, slowing things up. so my plan was to wait for some deal to be announced there and then buy in AFTER that but before their next earnings or buyback announcement. then, well, SIVB crisis hit, all bank stocks tanked, and I decided to just go for it. maybe too early ;) but, well, I did not want to sit this week out, and citi could go to zero and I'd be just fine (size appropriately!). and just maybe they're being prudent and wise stewards who will turn this sucker around from its current p/tbv.

drk
Jan 16, 2005
Thanks, that was interesting. I usually read the quarterly investor presentations for the companies I invest in, but not always the commentary. There definitely is a little extra color there, as they'd say.

Re: current events thread - I definitely didn't see the very important "not" in "I'm not gonna start a new general econ thread now myself".

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



I sure picked an exciting time to stop sniffing glue find this thread! Hopefully Things aren't about to get too Bad.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


drk posted:

Thanks, that was interesting. I usually read the quarterly investor presentations for the companies I invest in, but not always the commentary. There definitely is a little extra color there, as they'd say.

Re: current events thread - I definitely didn't see the very important "not" in "I'm not gonna start a new general econ thread now myself".

man if I had more time I'd read more transcripts. I forget what started me on it, but I read some cleveland-cliffs transcripts last year (or '21?). they are hilarious, look them up. the CEO just hurls nonstop insults at analysts he thinks are being dumb. A++ need to read more in '23.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


yellen handled this grilling about regional/community banks super poorly and it's going viral, the crisis may be extended to next week

https://twitter.com/theemikehobart/status/1636494845144432643

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

pmchem posted:

alright folks, thanks for the comments. based on the overall vibe, I'm not gonna start a new general econ thread now myself. but if someone else starts one and tries to make it work, well, it's a marketplace of ideas and I'm not gonna stop 'em.

I did the needful created the thread we've been dancing around since mid-2022

:siren: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4027219

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

unrelated, i'm gonna be liquidating my ~precious~ sofi stock, taking a ~$3.5/share loss, mostly out of duress, putting it towards a down payment on a house

holding on to my sofi calls* because no point in liquidating those at this point

:lol::lol::lol:

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

pmchem posted:

yellen handled this grilling about regional/community banks super poorly and it's going viral, the crisis may be extended to next week

https://twitter.com/theemikehobart/status/1636494845144432643

I would be inclined to believe it's plausible the issue will extend but I'd also be skeptical that a republican grilling yellen during this crisis is anything more than the soundbite.

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Baddog
May 12, 2001

notwithoutmyanus posted:

I would be inclined to believe it's plausible the issue will extend but I'd also be skeptical that a republican grilling yellen during this crisis is anything more than the soundbite.

He was pretty much on point tho, except the "red Chinese" bit, I could have done without that.

They should have just come out and said that all deposits everywhere are guaranteed for the next year, and we are going to require banks to better educate people about what is covered and what isn't going forward.

This implicit herding of everyone to the four or five biggest banks is the weirdest goddamn thing. Are they really gonna let a wave of small banks go under here, and not cover their depositors? Probably not, so make it the policy and stop the flight.

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