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(Thread IKs: skooma512)
 
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Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

Vox Nihili posted:

Its cool that other countries also have insanely stupid and undemocratic rules to magic up laws, just like America

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1636368220436176896
it's great. the funny part is french have actually lost their protesting pizzazz so they'll probably set some things on fire and grumble and things will slowly return to normal a couple months afterwards, with worse pensions

anyways the parliamentarian said we can't raise minimum wage, sorry YA'LL FOLX! vote harder next time, donate now

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The Atomic Man-Boy
Jul 23, 2007

Real hurthling! posted:

Hollywood country club wife names tennis pro mistress in letter to members https://pagesix.com/2023/03/16/country-club-wife-names-tennis-pro-mistress-in-letter-to-members/

rich lady mad that club dues dont prevent infidelity

This useless rag of a publication didn’t even show any pictures of the hot tennis coach.

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud
Apr 7, 2003


Ramrod Hotshot posted:

just logged in today and saw that another bank is getting bailed out. so is it just going to be whackamole bailouts for the rest of the year or do the bank failures finally get out of control?

yes

Delta-Wye
Sep 29, 2005
its starting to look like that mailer about svb being the most secure bank for your money (infinite backstop, but not everyone gets the privilege) was absolutely right

Homeless Friend
Jul 16, 2007

simply incredible

Homeless Friend
Jul 16, 2007
dodd frank, but for smaller banks only

anime was right
Jun 27, 2008

death is certain
keep yr cool

nomad2020 posted:

Look, the tech bro banks had a contagion and were giving other banks the runs. How is this hard to understand?

this feels like them admitting they hit the iceberg but doing everything to give the rich people enough time to get to the lifeboats

thechosenone
Mar 21, 2009

Ramrod Hotshot posted:

just logged in today and saw that another bank is getting bailed out. so is it just going to be whackamole bailouts for the rest of the year or do the bank failures finally get out of control?

I think the failure to allow bank failures causes inflation to run out of control, and makes the bank failures worse if they ever get more scared of the inflation than the bank failures. Just a matter of how long until a flood of relativistic dead capital starts destroying things instantly before a bailout can be done and defaults start happening in practice even if they won't admit they are occurring.

People won't work if there's nothing to buy with money, and neither will bailouts if billionaires get Zimbabwe'ed.

cool av
Mar 2, 2013


uhm isn't "people pulling all their money out of smaller banks into the big banks" exactly what ppl feared if they didn't bail out SVB?

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

lmao her sputtering when lankford points out that the fed is destroying small banks

RadiRoot
Feb 3, 2007
really hoping macron dies

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

cool av posted:

uhm isn't "people pulling all their money out of smaller banks into the big banks" exactly what ppl feared if they didn't bail out SVB?

no that was letting it fail would destroy non-bank businesses as they no longer had access to things like payroll money

slave to my cravings
Mar 1, 2007

Got my mind on doritos and doritos on my mind.
what happens when all the small banks die

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

slave to my cravings posted:

what happens when all the small banks die

you will toll and till the land to give your feudal master J.P. Morgan chase his obligatory tithe

JustFollowingOrder
Mar 3, 2023

by vyelkin

in other words that all the bailout that can be afforded at this time

Raccooon
Dec 5, 2009


Wow that’s the first time I have ever heard Yellen speak and she sounds like a doddering old moron.

JamesKPolk
Apr 9, 2009

Homeless Friend posted:

dodd frank, but for smaller banks only

we have learned a lot over these 15 years

JamesKPolk
Apr 9, 2009

cool av posted:

uhm isn't "people pulling all their money out of smaller banks into the big banks" exactly what ppl feared if they didn't bail out SVB?

looks like the only thing left to do is kill one of the big banks. hope no one here still uses wells fargo

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Raccooon posted:

Wow that’s the first time I have ever heard Yellen speak and she sounds like a doddering old moron.

Everyone in government is either a doddering old moron or a totally psychotic "young" (45 year-old) striver now

nigel thornberry
Jul 29, 2013

brb, going to my small rustic community bank to get some fine artisanal savings accounts and micro batched CDs

RadiRoot
Feb 3, 2007

Nonsense posted:

they'll handle the funeral and everything, dump you out with all the turnip and potato skins.

sounds like a good deal. always wanted to become fish food.

dk2m
May 6, 2009

Orvin posted:

Don’t know why these posts is what made me personally connect the dots.

If inflation is too many employed poor people. And those at the top (who own all the stocks in companies) are systematically prevented from losing any significant amount of wealth. How can enough companies have a large enough losses to lay off significant portions of their workforce?

Wouldn’t that mean that lots of important people lost a lot of money? Isn’t that an inherent contradiction at this point in time?

I get that there will be small waves of layoffs to juice stock prices at various points. But they will be small and uncoordinated. So there will usually be somewhere for those people to land.

Am I missing something, or have I just caught up with the rest of the posters here?

this is a genuinely great question. phrased another way - why are losses happening at blue chip companies, which are supposedly the same class of people the fed is supposed to help? and how is that contributing to the erosion of employment?

to answer this, we have to first differentiate between industrial capitalism and finance capitalism.

industrial capitalism was genuinely revolutionary - reading some of the classical economists like Ricardo and Smith, you get a clear takeaway: the feudal class must go. their ability to monopolize key sectors of the economy, namely land, was causing a bottleneck that capitalists saw as hindering growth. they argued that feudalism, primarily the ability for a hereditary class to inherit unearned income, was choking the economy as it indebted the population and made them debt slaves to creditors. looking back to ancient times, even those in the palace would periodically wage war on the aristocracy as labor that had been indebted by creditors meant that they couldn't be used as labor by the king.

in a similar way, capitalists saw the feudal class as a non-rational and non-liberal part of society. as the physiocrats, the proto-capitalists, first started developing their opposition in France, it eventually led to the French Revolution in which liberals rebelled and massacred the feudal class.

historically, the industrial capitalists have opposed the financial capitalists. this is because finance capitalism is very similar to feudalism - it is designed to indebt the population by using their assets as claims of debt. industrial capitalists do not want this - they want low cost of living as it is how they can compete with other countries and societies. a country that has high healthcare costs means that they have to pay higher wages; if a government subsidizes it instead, it means that a company has to pay less wages, leading to more profit.

the situation we're in now is that finance capitalism has completely taken over and pushed out the industrialists. what marx railed against, namely the exploitation of workers, almost seems quaint - we are effectively in a neo-feudal age in which the vast majority of americans are heavily indebted and are debtors, between morgages, education loans, healthcare, auto, credit cards, etc.

within this distinction, we can now answer your question. inflation is ASSET PRICE INFLATION. this is fundamentally different from CPI inflation, so-called consumer price index. we are NOT in danger of hyperinflation, I don't know where this narrative is coming from. what has happened is that asset prices, namely housing and stocks, have been artificially inflated due to the 15 year QE campaign by the fed. last year, when millions died due to covid and there were severe shortages in restaurants, factories, warehouses, etc, labor suddenly had additional power to demand higher wages.

this demand threatened both industry AND finance. however, industrial capitalists have largely transformed into finance capitalists - the biggest example of this is silicon valley in which VCs are seen as the movers and shakers. in the past, VCs were treated with contempt - even within SVB, they were a completely separate arm until the head of VC took over SVB.

what no one expected was a literal plague killing off millions of potential workers worldwide and changing the ability of labor to demand more. as we all began realizing, we could jump from job to job and make more than we used to - restaurants were chronically understaffed and computer touchers were saying the refused to come into the office. suddenly, industrial capitalsim reared its head and allowed workers to demand higher wages in compensation. this is unacceptable, as now suddenly these high wages hit the already high (relatively speaking) wages of america - employers have to pay for healthcare, compensate cost of living, etc.

this threatened the growth of the country, literally. company owners were NOT affected by this cost of living increase - they are the creditors, not the ones being indebted. the losses they suffered from the feds rate hike increase was OFFSET BY WAGE DECREASES. this is because stocks, bonds, and housing, their main source of wealth, continued to increase despite the squeeze labor was feeling.

this is why there is no contradiction - the layoffs are part of this squeeze and labor is in a feudal relationship with its creditors. executives in key sectors will offset their losses in rate hikes by squeezing labor. this is why something like Apple stock continues to increase amongst this volatility.

JamesKPolk
Apr 9, 2009

dk2m posted:

this is a genuinely great question. phrased another way - why are losses happening at blue chip companies, which are supposedly the same class of people the fed is supposed to help? and how is that contributing to the erosion of employment?

to answer this, we have to first differentiate between industrial capitalism and finance capitalism.

industrial capitalism was genuinely revolutionary - reading some of the classical economists like Ricardo and Smith, you get a clear takeaway: the feudal class must go. their ability to monopolize key sectors of the economy, namely land, was causing a bottleneck that capitalists saw as hindering growth. they argued that feudalism, primarily the ability for a hereditary class to inherit unearned income, was choking the economy as it indebted the population and made them debt slaves to creditors. looking back to ancient times, even those in the palace would periodically wage war on the aristocracy as labor that had been indebted by creditors meant that they couldn't be used as labor by the king.

in a similar way, capitalists saw the feudal class as a non-rational and non-liberal part of society. as the physiocrats, the proto-capitalists, first started developing their opposition in France, it eventually led to the French Revolution in which liberals rebelled and massacred the feudal class.

historically, the industrial capitalists have opposed the financial capitalists. this is because finance capitalism is very similar to feudalism - it is designed to indebt the population by using their assets as claims of debt. industrial capitalists do not want this - they want low cost of living as it is how they can compete with other countries and societies. a country that has high healthcare costs means that they have to pay higher wages; if a government subsidizes it instead, it means that a company has to pay less wages, leading to more profit.

the situation we're in now is that finance capitalism has completely taken over and pushed out the industrialists. what marx railed against, namely the exploitation of workers, almost seems quaint - we are effectively in a neo-feudal age in which the vast majority of americans are heavily indebted and are debtors, between morgages, education loans, healthcare, auto, credit cards, etc.

within this distinction, we can now answer your question. inflation is ASSET PRICE INFLATION. this is fundamentally different from CPI inflation, so-called consumer price index. we are NOT in danger of hyperinflation, I don't know where this narrative is coming from. what has happened is that asset prices, namely housing and stocks, have been artificially inflated due to the 15 year QE campaign by the fed. last year, when millions died due to covid and there were severe shortages in restaurants, factories, warehouses, etc, labor suddenly had additional power to demand higher wages.

this demand threatened both industry AND finance. however, industrial capitalists have largely transformed into finance capitalists - the biggest example of this is silicon valley in which VCs are seen as the movers and shakers. in the past, VCs were treated with contempt - even within SVB, they were a completely separate arm until the head of VC took over SVB.

what no one expected was a literal plague killing off millions of potential workers worldwide and changing the ability of labor to demand more. as we all began realizing, we could jump from job to job and make more than we used to - restaurants were chronically understaffed and computer touchers were saying the refused to come into the office. suddenly, industrial capitalsim reared its head and allowed workers to demand higher wages in compensation. this is unacceptable, as now suddenly these high wages hit the already high (relatively speaking) wages of america - employers have to pay for healthcare, compensate cost of living, etc.

this threatened the growth of the country, literally. company owners were NOT affected by this cost of living increase - they are the creditors, not the ones being indebted. the losses they suffered from the feds rate hike increase was OFFSET BY WAGE DECREASES. this is because stocks, bonds, and housing, their main source of wealth, continued to increase despite the squeeze labor was feeling.

this is why there is no contradiction - the layoffs are part of this squeeze and labor is in a feudal relationship with its creditors. executives in key sectors will offset their losses in rate hikes by squeezing labor. this is why something like Apple stock continues to increase amongst this volatility.

another in a series of good posts

thechosenone
Mar 21, 2009
But the point is that they are still tearing poo poo apart even though the wages aren't the bottleneck. Hyperinflation is possible because they abjectly refuse to produce anything so those who still do can basically dictate prices and will provide only to the incredibly rich.

Indeed this could be neo feudalist in practice, but what does that mean if China or other nations are not dragged down with America? I'd imagine It means eventual capitulation to anyone who doesn't destroy themselves like that.

It's either nukes or communism.

Also land is worthless if you do t do anything with it and have nothing more than strung out homeless people in camps to work the fields.

Delta-Wye
Sep 29, 2005

thechosenone posted:

It's either nukes or communism.

edit: to be clear, we are NOT getting fully automated luxury space communism, guess again

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003


lmao

thechosenone
Mar 21, 2009

Delta-Wye posted:

edit: to be clear, we are NOT getting fully automated luxury space communism, guess again

The other option is right there.

Alternatively China decides to wait until America depopulates before taking the abandoned silos and redeveloping the land they don't designate a combination superfund site and nature preserve.

Is Marxist colonialism a thing?

StealthArcher
Jan 10, 2010




FlapYoJacks posted:

I have a CPA friend that told me the islands cracked down hard on that poo poo a decade or so ago. The new place to hide the money is in shell LLCs in America or Panama.

sheLLC Game

anime was right
Jun 27, 2008

death is certain
keep yr cool
cash for clunkers (banks)

dk2m
May 6, 2009

thechosenone posted:

But the point is that they are still tearing poo poo apart even though the wages aren't the bottleneck. Hyperinflation is possible because they abjectly refuse to produce anything so those who still do can basically dictate prices and will provide only to the incredibly rich.

Indeed this could be neo feudalist in practice, but what does that mean if China or other nations are not dragged down with America? I'd imagine It means eventual capitulation to anyone who doesn't destroy themselves like that.

It's either nukes or communism.

Also land is worthless if you do t do anything with it and have nothing more than strung out homeless people in camps to work the fields.

to be very, very clear - hyperinflation can only exist in countries that take on foreign debt. america, due to its unique position of being a reserve currency, will never experience it.

price increases that we see are primarily due to the de-industrialization policies of the finance capitalists. because we can no longer manufacture even basic things like t-shirts here, it causes delays that lead to price increases. this is in no way the same as "hyperinflation" as traditionally understood. every single country that has experienced it has experienced a debt spiral due to their inability to obtain foreign currencies to balance their current account.

i continue to disagree with the hyperinflation diagnoses. the much more dangerous effect of this current crisis is that labor becomes terrified and we don't see it's power again for another decade.

RadiRoot
Feb 3, 2007
what is labor to do? strikes?

anime was right
Jun 27, 2008

death is certain
keep yr cool

Radirot posted:

what is labor to do? strikes?

suffer, peon

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

thechosenone posted:

Alternatively China decides to wait until America depopulates before taking the abandoned silos and redeveloping the land they don't designate a combination superfund site and nature preserve.

When is America depopulating?

dk2m
May 6, 2009

Radirot posted:

what is labor to do? strikes?

my background and degree is in finance and economics, i'll leave it up to the politically inclined to figure out what to do. but to be honest, i have no idea.

Maed
Aug 23, 2006


Radirot posted:

what is labor to do? strikes?

:killing:

FlapYoJacks
Feb 12, 2009
lol @ America. I have an employment contract. :smug:

cool av
Mar 2, 2013

Raskolnikov38 posted:

no that was letting it fail would destroy non-bank businesses as they no longer had access to things like payroll money


but lookat this fucker right here:

https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1634564398919368704

quote:

the gov’t has about 48 hours to fix a-soon-to-be-irreversible mistake. By allowing @SVB_Financial to fail without protecting all depositors, the world has woken up to what an uninsured deposit is — an unsecured illiquid claim on a failed bank. Absent @jpmorgan @citi or @BankofAmerica acquiring SVB before the open on Monday, a prospect I believe to be unlikely, or the gov’t guaranteeing all of SVB’s deposits, the giant sucking sound you will hear will be the withdrawal of substantially all uninsured deposits from all but the ‘systemically important banks’ (SIBs).

(and wtf is this tweet it's...long?)

Orbis Tertius
Feb 13, 2007

internal contradictions heightening, fissures cracking open along the akira-blob body of finance capitalism.

BULBASAUR
Apr 6, 2009




Soiled Meat
labor burnt down a police station and got a holiday, so a show of strength, whatever shape it comes in, is enough to convince the oligarch class that compromises must to be made. this is unlikely thanks to how badly labor has been crushed in this country. it could still happen if the population is immiserated enough though

a more likely outcome is that it leads to the rise of populist parties, who will become a 3rd way wedging itself into power. once in power they either do hard fisted reforms or chill as the new overlords. your mileage will vary depending on who gets into power, but the list isn't all great: military, nazis, communists, nickleback fans

a wayward population or 3rd party politics can also be driven into other directions, like wars, by the ruling classes. this is probably not likely, since the war in ukraine has shown that big wars work in the favor of industrial capitalists, finance capitalism has neither the industry nor the incentive to fight the wars directly (it needs debtors, it needs slaves, not casualties)

a comedy option is that during a crisis the ruling class makes a mistake, and this spirals the system into collapse. i'm not sure if this has ever happened, but its also why this thread exists


so not many great options. we're probably looking at decades of slow decline. the good news is that it will probably happen so slowly you won't notice it and the commentariat will bury any studies that show your life expectancy has fallen by X years

BULBASAUR has issued a correction as of 05:29 on Mar 17, 2023

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Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Organisation is the solution. Unions are a start, and the start is good.

Ty for the good effort posts.

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