[Doomsday Economics] Home of Kirbeh's FREE SLICE ($25 delivery fee)

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(Thread IKs: skooma512)

Raskolnikov38: Mar 3, 2007; We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

cool av posted:

but lookat this fucker right here:

https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1634564398919368704

(and wtf is this tweet it's...long?)

this guy is dumb. some people would move their oversized accounts from small banks to big banks since the latter is less likely to fail regardless but anything over 250k still wouldn't be fdic insured there. what he wants to save banks is for the fdic to insure every single dollar at every single bank, which indeed would stop people from shifting funds around at the cost of adding $10 trillion in liabilities to the government's balance sheet.

money was going to move from small to big banks regardless but what the fed has done by saying it will only fully insure systemically important banks is to make anyone with an account over 250k an absolute loving moron if its not parked at one of the big four banks. keeping the limit at 250k wouldn't have stopped money moving but it wouldn't completely disincentivize anyone that isn't poor from parking their money at a regional bank

# ? Mar 17, 2023 05:28

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# ? May 25, 2024 08:19

RadiRoot: Feb 3, 2007

https://www.engadget.com/cwa-union-files-another-unfair-labor-charge-against-ebay-owned-tcgplayer-160641406.html

people are losing jobs from unionizing over trading cards now.

# ? Mar 17, 2023 05:29

Vox Nihili: May 28, 2008

Raskolnikov38 posted:

this guy is dumb. some people would move their oversized accounts from small banks to big banks since the latter is less likely to fail regardless but anything over 250k still wouldn't be fdic insured there. what he wants to save banks is for the fdic to insure every single dollar at every single bank, which indeed would stop people from shifting funds around at the cost of adding $10 trillion in liabilities to the government's balance sheet.

money was going to move from small to big banks regardless but what the fed has done by saying it will only fully insure systemically important banks is to make anyone with an account over 250k an absolute loving moron if its not parked at one of the big four banks. keeping the limit at 250k wouldn't have stopped money moving but it wouldn't completely disincentivize anyone that isn't poor from parking their money at a regional bank

The idea is that even amounts over $250k are de facto insured at big banks because "too big to fail will be bailed out" is the actual rule regardless of what anyone says the rule is. I think it's basically correct, this government will stand behind major banks at any cost and people with money would do well to notice that. Who knows what these rich business owners will actually do though, they seem to be driven by relationships and herding more than any sort of practical considerations

# ? Mar 17, 2023 05:34

sullat: Jan 9, 2012

nomad2020 posted:

Look, the tech bro banks had a contagion and were giving other banks the runs. How is this hard to understand?

Need to make the banks wear masks

# ? Mar 17, 2023 05:40

Greatbacon: Apr 9, 2012; by Pragmatica

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Organisation is the solution. Unions are a start, and the start is good.

Ty for the good effort posts.

Community organizing and/or tenant organizing are also good places to start.

# ? Mar 17, 2023 05:41

Thorn Wishes Talon: Oct 18, 2014; by Fluffdaddy

speaking of china...

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-raise-retirement-age-deal-with-aging-population-media-2023-03-14/

# ? Mar 17, 2023 05:46

err: Apr 11, 2005; I carry my own weight no matter how heavy this shit gets...

dk2m posted:

this is a genuinely great question. phrased another way - why are losses happening at blue chip companies, which are supposedly the same class of people the fed is supposed to help? and how is that contributing to the erosion of employment?

to answer this, we have to first differentiate between industrial capitalism and finance capitalism.

industrial capitalism was genuinely revolutionary - reading some of the classical economists like Ricardo and Smith, you get a clear takeaway: the feudal class must go. their ability to monopolize key sectors of the economy, namely land, was causing a bottleneck that capitalists saw as hindering growth. they argued that feudalism, primarily the ability for a hereditary class to inherit unearned income, was choking the economy as it indebted the population and made them debt slaves to creditors. looking back to ancient times, even those in the palace would periodically wage war on the aristocracy as labor that had been indebted by creditors meant that they couldn't be used as labor by the king.

in a similar way, capitalists saw the feudal class as a non-rational and non-liberal part of society. as the physiocrats, the proto-capitalists, first started developing their opposition in France, it eventually led to the French Revolution in which liberals rebelled and massacred the feudal class.

historically, the industrial capitalists have opposed the financial capitalists. this is because finance capitalism is very similar to feudalism - it is designed to indebt the population by using their assets as claims of debt. industrial capitalists do not want this - they want low cost of living as it is how they can compete with other countries and societies. a country that has high healthcare costs means that they have to pay higher wages; if a government subsidizes it instead, it means that a company has to pay less wages, leading to more profit.

the situation we're in now is that finance capitalism has completely taken over and pushed out the industrialists. what marx railed against, namely the exploitation of workers, almost seems quaint - we are effectively in a neo-feudal age in which the vast majority of americans are heavily indebted and are debtors, between morgages, education loans, healthcare, auto, credit cards, etc.

within this distinction, we can now answer your question. inflation is ASSET PRICE INFLATION. this is fundamentally different from CPI inflation, so-called consumer price index. we are NOT in danger of hyperinflation, I don't know where this narrative is coming from. what has happened is that asset prices, namely housing and stocks, have been artificially inflated due to the 15 year QE campaign by the fed. last year, when millions died due to covid and there were severe shortages in restaurants, factories, warehouses, etc, labor suddenly had additional power to demand higher wages.

this demand threatened both industry AND finance. however, industrial capitalists have largely transformed into finance capitalists - the biggest example of this is silicon valley in which VCs are seen as the movers and shakers. in the past, VCs were treated with contempt - even within SVB, they were a completely separate arm until the head of VC took over SVB.

what no one expected was a literal plague killing off millions of potential workers worldwide and changing the ability of labor to demand more. as we all began realizing, we could jump from job to job and make more than we used to - restaurants were chronically understaffed and computer touchers were saying the refused to come into the office. suddenly, industrial capitalsim reared its head and allowed workers to demand higher wages in compensation. this is unacceptable, as now suddenly these high wages hit the already high (relatively speaking) wages of america - employers have to pay for healthcare, compensate cost of living, etc.

this threatened the growth of the country, literally. company owners were NOT affected by this cost of living increase - they are the creditors, not the ones being indebted. the losses they suffered from the feds rate hike increase was OFFSET BY WAGE DECREASES. this is because stocks, bonds, and housing, their main source of wealth, continued to increase despite the squeeze labor was feeling.

this is why there is no contradiction - the layoffs are part of this squeeze and labor is in a feudal relationship with its creditors. executives in key sectors will offset their losses in rate hikes by squeezing labor. this is why something like Apple stock continues to increase amongst this volatility.

🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐

# ? Mar 17, 2023 05:47

thechosenone: Mar 21, 2009

Vox Nihili posted:

When is America depopulating?

I dunno a decade or two from now? If we really poo poo the bed I imagine quality of life goes to pot, and they aren't gonna pay people to gently caress so I doubt folks are gonna make kids. I'm just frustrated that nothing seems like it's gonna get better.j

I'm gonna go to bed, and hopefully play with my cool grass cat when I wake up.

# ? Mar 17, 2023 06:13

Bastard Tetris: Apr 27, 2005; L-Shaped; Nap Ghost

thechosenone posted:

I dunno a decade or two from now? If we really poo poo the bed I imagine quality of life goes to pot, and they aren't gonna pay people to gently caress so I doubt folks are gonna make kids. I'm just frustrated that nothing seems like it's gonna get better.j

I'm gonna go to bed, and hopefully play with my cool grass cat when I wake up.

trump said he wanted to give cash bonuses for couples having kids at CPAC, guessing it�s probably less than the 500k required to raise a child from 0-18 in this country, provided they don�t get gunned down at school

# ? Mar 17, 2023 06:15

thechosenone: Mar 21, 2009

Or killed by covid, or the collapsing infrastructure. Hell the healthcare costs and rising pollution are likely to reduce fertility and increase birth defects, along with killing prospective mothers who are forced to die from ectopic pregnancies.

They can open the blood gates, but that just means less blood to go around, not more.

Not like they'd be willing to hire them to do stuff, they don't want the people who are around now! They'd just try to chase the imaginary dragon of reduced labor costs even when they themselves are the main component of that cost and therefore cannot be cut down on.

# ? Mar 17, 2023 06:18

BULBASAUR: Apr 6, 2009; Soiled Meat

we could certainly have another plague kill off millions of workers

# ? Mar 17, 2023 06:23

Demon Of The Fall: May 1, 2004; Nap Ghost

bird flu looks like it�s right around the corner

# ? Mar 17, 2023 06:39

RadiRoot: Feb 3, 2007

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

speaking of china...

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-raise-retirement-age-deal-with-aging-population-media-2023-03-14/

"Life expectancy has risen from around 44 years in 1960 to 78 years as of 2021, higher than in the United States, and is projected to exceed 80 years by 2050."

lol

# ? Mar 17, 2023 06:39

Thorn Wishes Talon: Oct 18, 2014; by Fluffdaddy

Demon Of The Fall posted:

bird flu looks like it�s right around the corner

# ? Mar 17, 2023 06:40

Vox Nihili: May 28, 2008

thechosenone posted:

I dunno a decade or two from now? If we really poo poo the bed I imagine quality of life goes to pot, and they aren't gonna pay people to gently caress so I doubt folks are gonna make kids. I'm just frustrated that nothing seems like it's gonna get better.j

I'm gonna go to bed, and hopefully play with my cool grass cat when I wake up.

Quality of life and population are totally different things that are barely related. The worst places to live on the planet can and do still see enormous population growth.

The US can continue to grow while getting much worse.

# ? Mar 17, 2023 06:40

Delta-Wye: Sep 29, 2005

looking forward to the straw that breaks the camels back, of all things, being tiktok getting banned leading to mass rioting

# ? Mar 17, 2023 06:41

Minecraft Holmes: Oct 21, 2016

dk2m posted:

to be very, very clear - hyperinflation can only exist in countries that take on foreign debt. america, due to its unique position of being a reserve currency, will never experience it.

price increases that we see are primarily due to the de-industrialization policies of the finance capitalists. because we can no longer manufacture even basic things like t-shirts here, it causes delays that lead to price increases. this is in no way the same as "hyperinflation" as traditionally understood. every single country that has experienced it has experienced a debt spiral due to their inability to obtain foreign currencies to balance their current account.

i continue to disagree with the hyperinflation diagnoses. the much more dangerous effect of this current crisis is that labor becomes terrified and we don't see it's power again for another decade.

america is the second largest manufacturer in the world, china only overtook us in 2010

# ? Mar 17, 2023 07:10

Animal-Mother: Feb 14, 2012; RABBIT RABBIT
RABBIT RABBIT

Delta-Wye posted:

looking forward to the straw that breaks the camels back, of all things, being tiktok getting banned leading to mass rioting

the tiktokers will not riot if they have nowhere to upload their videos of them rioting :smuggo:

# ? Mar 17, 2023 07:18

skooma512: Feb 8, 2012; You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.

Vox Nihili posted:

Its cool that other countries also have insanely stupid and undemocratic rules to magic up laws, just like America

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1636368220436176896

They have a rule for all-in lol :france:

# ? Mar 17, 2023 07:21

BEAR GRYLLZ: Jul 30, 2006; I have strong erections for Israel.
Strong, pathetic erections.

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

speaking of china...

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-raise-retirement-age-deal-with-aging-population-media-2023-03-14/

quote:

China has yet to formally announce a change to its retirement age, which is among the lowest in the world at 60 for men, 55 for white-collar women and 50 for women who work in factories.

wow i didn't know that, thanks for the link!

# ? Mar 17, 2023 07:36

Dr. Furious: Jan 11, 2001; KELVIN
My bot don't know nuthin' 'bout no KELVIN

Mr Hootington posted:

I thought the bank wasn't a systemic risk
https://twitter.com/SeidlerCorp/status/1636518949872451584?t=scnMYT8ACs8BP1QiTF2P0g&s=19

JP Morgan to regional banks:

# ? Mar 17, 2023 07:39

dk2m: May 6, 2009

Minecraft Holmes posted:

america is the second largest manufacturer in the world, china only overtook us in 2010

id respond to this but you got probed for some of the dumbest poo poo of all time so its your fault imo, rip

# ? Mar 17, 2023 07:47

BULBASAUR: Apr 6, 2009; Soiled Meat

dk2m posted:

id respond to this but you got probed for some of the dumbest poo poo of all time so its your fault imo, rip

You still should

Its a pretty common narrative about why actually our fictionalized system is totally still ok

# ? Mar 17, 2023 07:50

shrike82: Jun 11, 2005

https://twitter.com/BusinessInsider/status/1636595545186742272?s=20

# ? Mar 17, 2023 08:04

MLKQUOTEMACHINE: Oct 22, 2012; Some motherfuckers are always trying to ice-skate uphill

shrike82 posted:

https://twitter.com/BusinessInsider/status/1636595545186742272?s=20

The goddamn list is 2/3rds Texas, the other 1/3rd are in even worse states like Tennessee and Missouri.

# ? Mar 17, 2023 08:08

Grognan: Jan 23, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

lived in kansas, born in CA the seg gets worse the farther east it goes

# ? Mar 17, 2023 08:13

BULBASAUR: Apr 6, 2009; Soiled Meat

pouring one out for Grognan, victim of the inter-forum meme wars

# ? Mar 17, 2023 08:53

dk2m: May 6, 2009

love 2 be here for u - me

# ? Mar 17, 2023 09:36

dk2m: May 6, 2009

Grognan posted:

lived in kansas, born in CA the seg gets worse the farther east it goes

this dude from kansas lmaoooooooooo

# ? Mar 17, 2023 09:42

palindrome: Feb 3, 2020

Go to university and rack up debt in iowa or dakota, move to coast and become a neoliberal rear end in a top hat, get mad at your parents and hate your hometown. make 3x your salary compared to where you come from. buy a house in the suburb and oppose homelessness and high density housing. vote biden, very hard. thank you.

# ? Mar 17, 2023 10:36

HiHo ChiRho: Oct 23, 2010

dk2m posted:

this is why there is no contradiction - the layoffs are part of this squeeze and labor is in a feudal relationship with its creditors. executives in key sectors will offset their losses in rate hikes by squeezing labor. this is why something like Apple stock continues to increase amongst this volatility.

There's always the inherent contradiction in capitalism at play, though. While those Meta employees may have savings accounts and severence packages to help them look for other employment, the musical chairs of swapping between FAANG/MAMAA/the biggest tech companies has stopped as all of them paused hiring for now. If you can't join the established tech companies, then you have to settle for a new tech startup...except rate hikes are disrupting VC flow and the money spigot for the next Uber has slowed to a trickle.

These laid off techbros are still at the end of the day workers. Sure they may have spent an enormous amount of money on dumb poo poo like NFTs, expensive wines, or Funko Pops, but they eventually will run out of spending cash to purchase goods and services like they used to if they can't find gainful employment.

And that's why even under the reign of finance capitalism we still have a contradiction that could lead to its failure: fired workers increase profits in the short term, but if enough companies fire off enough of the workforce there's then not enough workers getting wages to pay for the goods and services of these companies, causing businesses to fail.

The reality is not enough layoffs are happening at the moment to force the contradiction yet, though. There would have to be pandemic level of layoffs or severe recession to even get somewhere near close to that.

# ? Mar 17, 2023 10:37

forkboy84: Jun 13, 2012; Corgis love bread. And Puro

BEAR GRYLLZ posted:

wow i didn't know that, thanks for the link!

China seems cool. I'd like to retire at 60. Well, I'd like to retire at 40 but that's unlikely. 60 is alright. Civilised

# ? Mar 17, 2023 10:37

Griz: May 21, 2001

DancingShade posted:

Look we can't print more doctors, hospitals or drugs. But we can absolutely change an entry in an excel spreadsheet to any number we like.

If we gave the peasantry unlimited access to important life saving healthcare they would just use it all up immediately. There wouldn't be any left for the rich actually important people.

We must care for and protect our collective betters.

If the wealthy coke addled heir to a tobacco empire needs an emergency penis lengthening surgery and can't get the surgical team he needs immediately because some poor woman needs a cancer operation or some other frivolous nonsense that would just be tragic.

I'm on medicaid and still have to deal with all the bullshit of private coverage except I don't have to actually pay for anything.

I hosed up my shoulder 6 months ago and still can't lift anything more than 5lb even after PT so the doctor ordered an MRI, then 2 weeks later I get a call from some company in ohio saying the approval was denied and now it's time to wait some more while they argue with the doctor's insurance wrangler.

# ? Mar 17, 2023 10:50

palindrome: Feb 3, 2020

HiHo ChiRho posted:

There's always the inherent contradiction in capitalism at play, though. While those Meta employees may have savings accounts and severence packages to help them look for other employment, the musical chairs of swapping between FAANG/MAMAA/the biggest tech companies has stopped as all of them paused hiring for now. If you can't join the established tech companies, then you have to settle for a new tech startup...except rate hikes are disrupting VC flow and the money spigot for the next Uber has slowed to a trickle.

These laid off techbros are still at the end of the day workers. Sure they may have spent an enormous amount of money on dumb poo poo like NFTs, expensive wines, or Funko Pops, but they eventually will run out of spending cash to purchase goods and services like they used to if they can't find gainful employment.

And that's why even under the reign of finance capitalism we still have a contradiction that could lead to its failure: fired workers increase profits in the short term, but if enough companies fire off enough of the workforce there's then not enough workers getting wages to pay for the goods and services of these companies, causing businesses to fail.

The reality is not enough layoffs are happening at the moment to force the contradiction yet, though. There would have to be pandemic level of layoffs or severe recession to even get somewhere near close to that.

That's an interesting point.

HiHo ChiRho posted:

[...] if enough companies fire off enough of the workforce there's then not enough workers getting wages to pay for the goods and services of these companies, causing businesses to fail.
The reality is not enough layoffs are happening at the moment to force the contradiction yet, though. There would have to be pandemic level of layoffs or severe recession to even get somewhere near close to that.[...]

Personally I am no longer convinced that the majority of workers getting wages and spending them on goods and services is a vital part of the economy. Certainly having a huge portion of the earning workforce buying goods is helpful, but it seems that a smaller and smaller portion of the top of the wealth pyramid are responsible for the majority of economic activity in the US. I don't know where it all ends but I see graphs that say the top X% of people are now responsible for Y% of spending, and the lower tiers of workers are simply being priced out. How much of the workforce can be laid off, and in essence written off and never expected to meaningfully consume ever again? It will be interesting to see how many businesses fail due to lack of consumers as opposed to consumers becoming destitute. It's certainly a grim situation and very cruel to the hard working folks that will lose their jobs and be unable to afford the basic necessities to live.

e: and many, many people in this country (like me) are only one missed paycheck or at best a few months of missed wages from destitution

palindrome has issued a correction as of 11:04 on Mar 17, 2023

# ? Mar 17, 2023 10:58

webcams for christ: Nov 2, 2005

palindrome posted:

Personally I am no longer convinced that the majority of workers getting wages and spending them on goods and services is a vital part of the economy.

Dollar Generals and McDonalds in extremely rural / poor zip codes are still insanely profitable. just hovering up cash left and right. my wife's cousin in rural Arkansas donates plasma as often as possible to afford groceries without having to hit up the food bank

# ? Mar 17, 2023 11:05

Oglethorpe: Aug 8, 2005

thechosenone posted:

The other option is right there.

Alternatively China decides to wait until America depopulates before taking the abandoned silos and redeveloping the land they don't designate a combination superfund site and nature preserve.

Is Marxist colonialism a thing?

not really, the closest thing i can think of was the soviet union being described as reverse colonialism in that, instead of extracting resources from the satellite nations to take back to the homeland, resources were extracted from the homeland to increase productive output of the satellite nations, build factories, etc. This is what caused major russian cities to effectively give the appearance of stagnating for decades.

# ? Mar 17, 2023 11:10

RealityWarCriminal: Aug 10, 2016

Minecraft Holmes posted:

america is the second largest manufacturer in the world, china only overtook us in 2010

my friend's wife works for a company that manufactures nails. they buy spools of wire from China and do just enough processing on it to make it not say Made in China.

# ? Mar 17, 2023 11:21

Shipon: Nov 7, 2005

cool av posted:

but lookat this fucker right here:

https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1634564398919368704

(and wtf is this tweet it's...long?)

good, all banks should be as consolidated as possible so when the time comes it becomes easier to nationalize them

# ? Mar 17, 2023 11:28

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

RealityWarCriminal posted:

my friend's wife works for a company that manufactures nails. they buy spools of wire from China and do just enough processing on it to make it not say Made in China.

Proudly made in (your country name here).

Then in much smaller size 4 font underneath: From local and imported ingredients.

Hey the cardboard packaging counts as local right? Just rebox it, bam.

# ? Mar 17, 2023 11:44

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# ? May 25, 2024 08:19

TDepressionEarl: Oct 28, 2010; I'm trying to win the World Cup
but I'm dummy thicc
and the clap of my ass cheeks
keeps playing Argentina onside

"without double counting the intermediate goods and services used up to produce them"

# ? Mar 17, 2023 11:46

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Doomsday Economics] Home of Kirbeh's FREE SLICE ($25 delivery fee)

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