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Gabbard had been pretty obvious about being a Republican for a while, but she endorsed a bunch of QAnons for the midterm right after leaving the Democratic party. She's probably trying to get a spot in a Ron Desantis cabinet or something. Williamson isn't a serious candidate but I think she is more in the announcing your presidential campaign for clout mold.
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Mar 17, 2023 01:59
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Judgy Fucker posted:The story of this site’s founder’s namesake is also quite the doozy. It's amazing how both Lowtaxes are responsible for ending exactly one human life a piece by their own hand.
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Mar 17, 2023 01:59
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Mellow Seas posted:Trump has actually already gone after him for his drinking with his students and that the media keeps kind of ignoring that story is crazy to me. I'd like to imagine someone somewhere is investigating that poo poo. Anything Trump says is generally considered a lie in the mainstream media at this point.
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Mar 17, 2023 02:07
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Google Jeb Bush posted:In the primary I'm going to be campaigning for whichever candidate is farthest left and not completely laughable (sorry Marianne) or evil (sorry Tulsi). because socialism causes divides. that's what they said right before they fired a bunch of key staff just to keep the socialists from...something something
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Mar 17, 2023 02:53
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I'm not sure if this is a perfect fit here, but after checking the first few pages of DND I'm not sure where else to put it. https://twitter.com/emsimani/status/1636332945840685057 https://twitter.com/emsimani/status/1636332950454403072 https://twitter.com/emsimani/status/1636332952429936640 https://www.propublica.org/article/secret-irs-files-trading-competitors-stock quote:Never-before-seen IRS records show that CEOs are sometimes making multimillion-dollar bets on the stocks of direct competitors and partners — and doing so with exquisite timing. The article itself is illuminating, to say the least, about potential insider trading by the megarich. Adding to the recent bank failures, it's hard to think of an industry more in need of tighter regulation than finance, and the fact that insider trading is defined almost entirely regulatorily rather than statutorily was news to me (learning this embarrassed me, to be frank). This article continues ProPublica's reporting on leaked IRS data of the 0.001% wealthiest Americans (you can access the series through the "Secret IRS Files" link on the left of the article) that was begun when many reactions to and much news analysis of the NYT analysis of Trump's tax returns in 2020 that showed Trump paid no tax in certain years suggested that Trump was somehow unique - either in his tax avoidance, or perhaps in the way the real estate industry is treated. I think ProPublica have quite comprehensively skewered that notion.
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Mar 17, 2023 02:54
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pork never goes bad posted:The article itself is illuminating, to say the least, about potential insider trading by the megarich. Adding to the recent bank failures, it's hard to think of an industry more in need of tighter regulation than finance, and the fact that insider trading is defined almost entirely regulatorily rather than statutorily was news to me (learning this embarrassed me, to be frank). This article continues ProPublica's reporting on leaked IRS data of the 0.001% wealthiest Americans (you can access the series through the "Secret IRS Files" link on the left of the article) that was begun when many reactions to and much news analysis of the NYT analysis of Trump's tax returns in 2020 that showed Trump paid no tax in certain years suggested that Trump was somehow unique - either in his tax avoidance, or perhaps in the way the real estate industry is treated. I think ProPublica have quite comprehensively skewered that notion. I can't remember where I read it, but one of the people who pulled their money out of SVB because of a group chat a bunch of rich investors were in was giving his timeline about what happened with the collapse and he let out that once he saw the SVB stocks were falling hard he had his wife use the money they pulled out to buy shares. This made me assume that the group chat was about a plan to make the stock price fall by causing a liquidity crisis but then it got out of hand and led to the complete collapse of the bank and now this coming out makes it seem like that is what likely happened.
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Mar 17, 2023 03:15
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pork never goes bad posted:I'm not sure if this is a perfect fit here, but after checking the first few pages of DND I'm not sure where else to put it. It is!  The problem is that they can make it expensive to prosecute. So the government stops bothering. Hopefully this serves as nice evidence for a new effort to get them. Harold Fjord fucked around with this message at 03:39 on Mar 17, 2023 |
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Mar 17, 2023 03:19
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pork never goes bad posted:I'm not sure if this is a perfect fit here, but after checking the first few pages of DND I'm not sure where else to put it. This was a good place to post it. Thanks! Sometimes, there are articles like these that are a little spurious because some CEOs just have to sell their own company stock every 3 months and an article with run with a headline like "X sold stock only 2 months before Y!" Or they are things you can't really prove. But, the Propublica investigation stock trades they highlight are specifically of competitors and non-standard stock trade times, which makes it very interesting. That whole section on the MGA CEO and Mattel is absolutely insane and well beyond any chance of coincidence.
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Mar 17, 2023 03:21
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Everybody insider trades. They key is to not make it too obvious and be rich enough that you can afford the really good lawyers
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Mar 17, 2023 03:22
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Timeless Appeal posted:Tulsi didn't even wait till Biden got into the White House before doing a heel turn and introducing anti-trans legislation after trying convince everyone that she was no longer a bigot. The biggest backer I knew for Tulsi was a friend who's kinda genuinely independent with reasonably consistent views that don't match any major or minor party, but some weird blind spots and an overdeveloped sense of both-sidesism. So like his genuinely anti-war stance gave him an earnest well-intentioned line of criticism against Obama and Clinton, but enough so that he disregarded Trump's promise to drop more bombs and kill more civilians than Obama, and insisted that Tulsi couldn't be the most bloodthirsty primary candidate because she would never say "regime change" while bombing more Muslims.
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Mar 17, 2023 03:25
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Jaxyon posted:Everybody insider trades. They key is to not make it too obvious and be rich enough that you can afford the really good lawyers You should read the whole Propublica piece. It's not the generic stuff of people trading the company they work at that you could never prove. The MGA CEO was literally in the middle of a lawsuit with Mattel while he was trading Mattel stock. He sold $3 million worth of Mattel stock a day before he and his legal team introduced evidence that Mattel was illegally spying on him. The judge ordered it sealed, but the information about the evidence leaked the next day and Mattel's stock tanked. The CEO of another company sold his competitor's stock the day before an SEC investigation was against them. Really wild and blatant stuff that goes way beyond the normal "we're announcing a big new project next month that I think will be a big hit, better buy some of our stock beforehand."
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Mar 17, 2023 03:27
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logger posted:I can't remember where I read it, but one of the people who pulled their money out of SVB because of a group chat a bunch of rich investors were in was giving his timeline about what happened with the collapse and he let out that once he saw the SVB stocks were falling hard he had his wife use the money they pulled out to buy shares. This made me assume that the group chat was about a plan to make the stock price fall by causing a liquidity crisis but then it got out of hand and led to the complete collapse of the bank and now this coming out makes it seem like that is what likely happened. Pretty sure I saw that in this very thread! Wild, though, yeah, and I'm hoping that some regulator actually gets to see that group chat. Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Sometimes, there are articles like these that are a little spurious because some CEOs just have to sell their own company stock every 3 months and an article with run with a headline like "X sold stock only 2 months before Y!" Or they are things you can't really prove. When I first read the headline I thought it was going to be more, well, spurious like you describe. I was pleasantly (in that it confirms my priors) and unpleasantly (in that it confirms my priors) surprised by the contents. Jaxyon posted:Everybody insider trades. They key is to not make it too obvious and be rich enough that you can afford the really good lawyers While this may be true, this ProPublica article is, I think, unique in fairly conclusively demonstrating insider trading based on private info about competitors, vendors, and partners, and also unique in naming names. I've gone from believing what you say but basing that belief primarily on anecdote and gut feel to believing it based on well reported data. I think that's important, particularly w/r/t achieving societal change.
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Mar 17, 2023 03:30
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Jaxyon posted:Everybody insider trades. They key is to not make it too obvious and be rich enough that you can afford the really good lawyers Also, I'm not a lawyer, but my understanding of the insider trading law is that it has to be done with confidential information of the company in question, to which you obtained access in breach of a fiduciary duty. Making big moves on a competitor's stock based on your knowledge of your company does not seem to be a crime, if my understanding is correct. https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/glossary/insider-trading
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Mar 17, 2023 03:42
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PT6A posted:Also, I'm not a lawyer, but my understanding of the insider trading law is that it has to be done with confidential information of the company in question, to which you obtained access in breach of a fiduciary duty. That's true of most prosecutions made to date, but the ProPublica piece addresses this. Broadly, insider trading law is based on regulatory authority granted to the SEC and a few other agencies and a shaky mess of case law that, by and large, has favored defendants and weakened enforcement. But the law itself only outlaws securities fraud, without describing or enumerating all the different possible kinds. In 2021 the SEC brought a case where an executive knew his company was to be purchased and bought shares in a third competitor's company knowing that the acquisition news would buoy competitor stocks too. The case is still pending. Generally, to win an insider trading case the feds have to prove two main elements - that the trader had material nonpublic information, and that the trader had a duty not to disclose it or use it for personal gain. It's no gimme that this would apply when you use information about your company (ie, that you are about to report a missed EPS, or be acquired) to purchase stock in a competitor knowing it would rise, but it's certainly arguable. If nothing else, this article is a very good argument that this law needs to be changed. Elizabeth Warren could make a meal of this.
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Mar 17, 2023 04:03
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PT6A posted:Also, I'm not a lawyer, but my understanding of the insider trading law is that it has to be done with confidential information of the company in question, to which you obtained access in breach of a fiduciary duty. the key is trading on material non-public information, the sec has demonstrated that they consider trading on non-public information by outside parties to be a crime see the case of matthew panuwat, who worked at a small pharma company that was going to be acquired. he bought stock in a competitor on the assumption that good news for his company would lift the entire penny stock pharma sector. the sec has charged him with insider trading even though he never bought or sold his own companies stock based on his non-public information this is one reason many large companies specifically ban trading in competitors based on information obtained during the course of employment edit: should have read all the posts. good to see pro-publica pointing to that case, although i guess it should be kept in mind that he has yet to be found guilty, so the court could still potentially slap down the sec GhostofJohnMuir fucked around with this message at 04:32 on Mar 17, 2023 |
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Mar 17, 2023 04:29
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Gabbard was really only ever a Democrat because she was running in Hawaii and that's the only game in town. Also Island Politics Are Different, apparently.InsertPotPun posted:here the democrats shot themselves in the face in a desperate plan to get two socialists out of power. they quit parties, moved money, created new organizations, partnered with republicans, kept voter information secret. it was literally the hardest they've ever fought. and they got an establishment democrat elected who immediately got rid of the evil socialists. so my choices next election is "republican" or "republican but darker skin". Can really tell what their real priorities are when this happens.
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Mar 17, 2023 05:44
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Morrow posted:Monkey's Paw of course is that means we have Biden/Buttigieg. I agree with the proferred objections to biden->biden->harris->harris, and I truly believe biden-> buttigieg would be an improved timeline. I went to high school with him. I lived in south bend through his mayorship. I've paid closer attention to his career and his character than anyone else posting on these forums. He's a "systems thinker" millennial lgbtq vet church-going dem statist intel-adjacent capitalist "accelerated inctementalism" son of a professor of marxist literature. He kicked my rear end up and down the chessboard, in chess club. Ive read the hit pieces and take-downs, having much more direct access to information than the authors of the pieces. I'm a hacker hippie anarchist anti-capitalist direct action atheist diogenes type. I can see the south bend mayors office from my front door. And i follow national and international politics on something Awful dot com, and have since just after voting gwb in 2000. And i get how dire the circumstances, and I'm radicalized, and I read the field and imagine timelines... I want Chasten to be FGOTUS ASAP. Uglycat fucked around with this message at 06:51 on Mar 17, 2023 |
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Mar 17, 2023 06:49
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Uglycat posted:I agree with the proferred objections to biden->biden->harris->harris I'm honestly not worried about that. I don't think Harris is likely to win a contested primary even in this hypothetical scenario where she runs in 2028 as the incumbent VP/1 year president. Rigel fucked around with this message at 09:51 on Mar 17, 2023 |
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Mar 17, 2023 09:43
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Also, I'm not sure where people are getting the idea that the Florida economy is due for a massive crash as the result of brain drain. Here's why: the Florida Bright Futures scholarship, which has been around for 25 years. If you can swing a weighted 3.5 GPA, a certain SAT score, and do 100 hours volunteer work (it looks like they've added paid work as also qualifying - knowing Florida this probably has nothing to do with not disadvataging kids from households who can't afford that much unpaid labour and everything to do with lolbertarian bootstraps) you get a full ride at a Florida university for 4 years. It's funded by the lottery*, and was specifically created due to brain drain. *So, effectively by a tax on the poor.
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Mar 17, 2023 09:53
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I grew up and went to college in Florida, a big reason our graduates don't leave the state is because they can't afford to, they can barely afford to live in FL as it is. Most of the jobs with decent pay are in healthcare. Only way I was able to escape FL was by joining the Army and getting extremely lucky by being stationed in Washington, where I still live after leaving the Army. I know plenty of Floridians with bachelor's degrees that spent much of their 20s and even into their 30s living with their parents because the jobs and wages in FL are loving awful.
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Mar 17, 2023 11:35
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Rigel posted:I'm honestly not worried about that. I don't think Harris is likely to win a contested primary even in this hypothetical scenario where she runs in 2028 as the incumbent VP/1 year president. Who would come out on top in a contested primary? Are there any Kennedies left? I'm not excusing Harris, her record on trans rights alone puts her straight in the dust bin of history, but who are the people you envision running in a primary against her?
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Mar 17, 2023 12:19
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In the wake of RWM claiming "woke" banks are failing or whatever bulllshit: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/15-banks-failed-trumps-presidency/ 15 banks failed between the time Trump was inaugurated and when he left office. All of them were smaller than the banks that failed in March 2023. Attributing bank failures solely to whichever political party is in power omits nuances concerning why the banks failed in the first place, and what lessons can be learned to prevent other banks from failing in the future.
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Mar 17, 2023 13:12
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Ron Desantis hit piece out. Mainly how unresponsive his campaign is and how weird he is privately, but apparently he’s a weird eater and freaks people out. https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-republican-2024-presidential-campaign-trail-is-already-getting-gov-ron-desantis-proofed?ref=home quote:Despite having a job that entails exchanging small talk and pleasantries on a daily basis, the Florida governor tends to brush off those obligations and struggles with basic social skills, according to a source close to DeSantis, several of his former staffers, and other GOP operatives who have worked with him and his team. Lmao quote:The chatter over DeSantis’ public engagement has also surfaced past unflattering stories about his social skills—particularly, his propensity to devour food during meetings. quote:Enshrined in DeSantis lore is an episode from four years ago: During a private plane trip from Tallahassee to Washington, D.C., in March of 2019, DeSantis enjoyed a chocolate pudding dessert—by eating it with three of his fingers, according to two sources familiar with the incident. Trump is going to make fun of him for never eating in public until he Ed Milibands himself.
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Mar 17, 2023 13:15
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Rappaport posted:Who would come out on top in a contested primary? Are there any Kennedies left? There's no need for us to get paralyzed into a situation where only two choices are considered, like what the Republicans seem to be doing this cycle. Throw Harris in a field with Pritzker, Polis, Warnock, Whitmer, whoever, somebody will rise to the top (and it probably won't be Kamala). And if it's someone on the more conservative side like Polis, if they've learned from Biden's example, they will let the party set their agenda rather than the other way around. Personal favorites include Inslee and Senator (not governor) Murphy; I'm sure other people could point to some off-the-radar people who have potential as candidates and executives. If we're talking 2028 it could very well be someone we've never heard of. Or maybe Fetterman will fully recover from his health problems and become the force we hoped he could be.
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Mar 17, 2023 14:01
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In more good news Michigan officially put protections for gender and sexual minorities into law after it was guaranteed by a couple recent court cases, so mitten state keep winning. https://twitter.com/GovWhitmer/status/1636468810009006088?t=53YlPAi877a3sC56VDqY9g&s=19
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Mar 17, 2023 14:01
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Mellow Seas posted:
Ultimately we just don't know where we are going to be in 5 years, who will come up in the party, what issues will be prominent, what demographics have shifted. Even Harris has a potential to recovery from her flip flopping craven aura (though not likely). Harris had a shot if she had just stuck to her guns on single payer and didn't walk back her racism comments about Joe Biden but her staff (or her) is so afraid of her being associated with leftist causes ended up sinking her in a lot of ways.
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Mar 17, 2023 14:28
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Harris is a total non-starter, even some of the tiny handful of people crazy enough to support her have been disappointed by now. Her performance as VP has people actually questioning her sentience, and/or speculating on a truly impressive drug habit. It's questionable even if Biden is going to keep her on as VP. Of course it is indeed very hard to tell how things are going to shake out. It's already well known how the Dems went scorched earth on their own bench to free up Hillary's presumed coronation and that left the end of history flapping in the wind. I don't think anybody knows yet. Rappaport posted:Who would come out on top in a contested primary? Are there any Kennedies left? loving lol do you remember what happened to the last Kennedy they tried to push
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Mar 17, 2023 14:40
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i don't even want to make assumptions about 24,, let alone 28 or beyond hell, a couple cases of oldasshititis hitting and 24 is now a free for all
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Mar 17, 2023 14:48
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World Famous W posted:i don't even want to make assumptions about 24,, let alone 28 or beyond This reminded me to check in on Mitch McConnell who is apparently communicating via text message, but no one has spoken to him yet. At best, he's nonverbal. quote:WASHINGTON—The No. 2 Senate Republican has kept in touch by text with GOP Leader Mitch McConnell since a recent fall and concussion but has not yet talked directly to the Kentucky legislator, he told reporters Wednesday. Just your normal 2 weeks of inpatient physical therapy following broken ribs and a concussion quote:That process could take up to two weeks, a source familiar with the Republican's medical status told USA TODAY. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/03/15/mitch-mcconnell-republicans-physical-therapy/11473888002/ Unbelievable how DC reporters aren't digging in to this more. FizFashizzle fucked around with this message at 15:03 on Mar 17, 2023 |
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Mar 17, 2023 14:57
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Mellow Seas posted:Pick any Senator or governor, really. Nobody really seems like "a President" until they actually start running. I could easily see it being a President Fetterman or Warnock at some point. The only Kennedy left (to answer the previous poster) who has been worth a drat in politics lately is Joe Kennedy III - the guy who was a state rep for a bit and then tried to primary Ed Markey based on being younger. I could definitely see him try, but he wasn't even able to win in Massachusetts running on his family name.
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Mar 17, 2023 15:02
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Sax Mortar posted:I could easily see it being a President Fetterman or Warnock at some point. Right or wrong (wrong) Fetterman's health issues probably make him a non-starter
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Mar 17, 2023 15:03
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Sax Mortar posted:I could easily see it being a President Fetterman or Warnock at some point. I get the Kennedys mixed up now. I take it Joe Kennedy III is not the guy who is the crazy anti-vaxxer married to Cheryl Hines, but I think recent Kennedy hijinks have definitely tarnished the family brand.
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Mar 17, 2023 15:04
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We're also rapidly leaving the time where anyone remember the "decent Kennedys." You have to be pretty old to remember JFK and RFK, which leaves you with: an anti-vaxx loon, a recently-deceased Senator who most probably killed someone and got away with it, Joe III who was basically an electoral non-entity, and I guess if you want to go back a little further, a guy who doesn't fly planes at all well. The family brand ain't going so strong at the moment.
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Mar 17, 2023 15:13
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Do we have any more Roosevelts lying around?
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Mar 17, 2023 15:15
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PT6A posted:We're also rapidly leaving the time where anyone remember the "decent Kennedys." You have to be pretty old to remember JFK and RFK, which leaves you with: an anti-vaxx loon, a recently-deceased Senator who most probably killed someone and got away with it, Joe III who was basically an electoral non-entity, and I guess if you want to go back a little further, a guy who doesn't fly planes at all well. And before that the idiot who decided skiing and football was a great combination. Judgy Fucker posted:Do we have any more Roosevelts lying around? They are also poo poo, apparently
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Mar 17, 2023 15:30
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Judgy Fucker posted:Do we have any more Roosevelts lying around? Teddy Roosevelt's Great-great-great-grandson just got elected at 18. quote:According to WTOP News, the 26th president's younger relative now represents Spring Valley, the Palisades, and Kent as a nonpartisan advisory neighborhood commissioner. Commissioners work directly with area residents and offer their recommendations to D.C. government agencies, typically serving two-year terms.
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Mar 17, 2023 15:32
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Judgy Fucker posted:Right or wrong (wrong) Fetterman's health issues probably make him a non-starter Joe Biden has had… -a brain bleed aneurysm -another aneurysm -deep vein thrombosis -gall bladder removed -sinus and nasal surgeries for sleep apnea -tubular adenoma removed -several cases of skin cancer -a hairline foot fracture from playing with a dog -atrial fibrillation -whatever is going on with his extremely old brain Medical challenges are not a barrier to serving in the White House, though they may be painted as such, they are not. What Fetterman has wrong with him that will keep him out of the White House is entirely unrelated to his health, it’s his politics (maybe) that would be the problem. The system chooses its administrators.
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Mar 17, 2023 15:39
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Sax Mortar posted:I could easily see it being a President Fetterman or Warnock at some point. And right in the middle of 'trying to primary an incumbent Dem is helping Trump' phase too. Kinda lol it seems to have pushed Markey to the left since him toeing the party line was rewarded with an attempt to boot him for a failson. The Kennedys are a meme, and if anything a dynasty is probably an active liability at this point.
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Mar 17, 2023 15:45
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Sax Mortar posted:I could easily see it being a President Fetterman or Warnock at some point. I think Whittmer is making a case for her self too Sax Mortar posted:
Not to be stupid pedantic, he was a Congressman/Representative not a State Representative. Kennedy made the wrong choice and should of waited for Markey or Warren to retire OR better yet should of run for Governor against Charlie Baker. It would of allowed him to take the Presidency path but Kennedy's people are still mostly DC folks who didn't understand what it takes to win in the modern era. Ghost Leviathan posted:And right in the middle of 'trying to primary an incumbent Dem is helping Trump' phase too. Kinda lol it seems to have pushed Markey to the left since him toeing the party line was rewarded with an attempt to boot him for a failson. Markey's always been fairly leftist and had the support of the local congressional delegation and Senate. This wasn't a party purge, Kenney's calculation is that the Democratic party wanted younger leadership not more leftist leadership. Mooseontheloose fucked around with this message at 15:49 on Mar 17, 2023 |
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Mar 17, 2023 15:47
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Eric Cantonese posted:I get the Kennedys mixed up now. I take it Joe Kennedy III is not the guy who is the crazy anti-vaxxer married to Cheryl Hines, but I think recent Kennedy hijinks have definitely tarnished the family brand. RFK Jr. is the anti-vaxxer. Joe Kennedy III is extremely unremarkable. Generic political positions, no real charisma, and the same "guy who's obviously spent his whole life wanting to be president" vibes as Buttigieg. The only special things about him are his name and his family connections, which managed to get him a Pelosi endorsement despite running against an incumbent, and the fact that he was dumb enough to challenge that incumbent head-on instead of just waiting for Markey to retire so the party could hand him an open seat to run for.
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