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Are any of you guys familiar with /r/CredibleDefense? What's your opinion on the level of discourse over there?
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Mar 17, 2023 09:49
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busalover posted:Are any of you guys familiar with /r/CredibleDefense? What's your opinion on the level of discourse over there? Take this question somewhere else.
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Mar 17, 2023 09:58
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Reaper and Predator drones do not operate well in non permissive air enviroments. I am sure the Ukrainians could make use of them (have they even requested the platform?), but them falling into Russian hands is not one of the biggest concerns. There is also an unarmed export version that the US sells to a variety of governments, which probably do not contain anything to spicy that the US would be concerned of falling into the wrong hands.
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Mar 17, 2023 09:59
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Government of Slovakia approved donation of Slovak MiG-29s to Ukraine + KUB air defence system
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Mar 17, 2023 10:14
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Charlotte Hornets posted:There is no political will to make shells. And no political will means lack of urgency. Everything else is excuses. It was obvious about 10 months ago that it will be a long war. But there is no Western roadmap, just some masturbation sessions in Ramstein Nobody could've seriously believed that cutting off salmon exports to russia would stop the war in a few months. By Kharkiv it had to be pretty clear to the experts what will be needed, hell, Zhaluzny was pretty explicit. If ramping up shell production would take a year, then you start it immediately and not wait a year to begin. Saying how everyone is committed to Ukraine restoring its territorial integrity and sovereignty, visiting Kyiv, and then saying that the tools necessary to achieve that are off the table (planes, LR missiles, modern armor, shells in necessary quantities etc) or will take years is very  messaging. If we aren't actually committed, let's just drop the whole thing and trade Donbass in exchange for a treaty.busalover posted:Are any of you guys familiar with /r/CredibleDefense? What's your opinion on the level of discourse over there?
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Mar 17, 2023 11:39
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The Trotskyite site World Socialist Web Site (I'm not trying to lazily call them tankies or something, they call themselves Trotskyite) put up an article claiming that 100K Ukrainian troops have been killed in the war (as opposed to total casualties including killed, wounded and captured) and links back to this article from Politco making the claim. This seems like a massive escalation since last I heard the 100k figure was more for the total casualties of Ukrainian forces. Is this reliable, considering its more Politco making the claim?
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Mar 17, 2023 14:38
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khwarezm posted:The Trotskyite site World Socialist Web Site (I'm not trying to lazily call them tankies or something, they call themselves Trotskyite) put up an article claiming that 100K Ukrainian troops have been killed in the war (as opposed to total casualties including killed, wounded and captured) and links back to this article from Politco making the claim. This seems like a massive escalation since last I heard the 100k figure was more for the total casualties of Ukrainian forces. Is this reliable, considering its more Politco making the claim? Ukrainians have been notoriously tight-lipped about their own casualties/fatalities, any number that comes out for them is probably suspect. Kyiv Independent published some numbers last May (I think?) for Ukrainian losses but that’s the only one I recall having seen that was slightly less-suspect than any other. Having said that…it wouldn’t particularly surprise me if they were pretty high though, modern weapons are hideously lethal and Russia’s favorite weapon (artillery) is generally a “people survived mostly intact” or “they’re now fully vaporized and gone with the wind” kind of weapon. e: it was late April last year that Kyiv Independent published those numbers. https://www.instagram.com/p/Ccu9mWNsDZC/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y= Icon Of Sin fucked around with this message at 14:54 on Mar 17, 2023 |
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Mar 17, 2023 14:47
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Yes there are no official numbers so everyone's guessing. Add huuuge margin of error but it's probably in the ballpark. It's a big war. For reference, the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, that lasted for 1.5 months, is estimated to have ~3000 KIA on each side. The whole of Armenia is the size of like Luhansk oblast.
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Mar 17, 2023 14:55
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khwarezm posted:The Trotskyite site World Socialist Web Site (I'm not trying to lazily call them tankies or something, they call themselves Trotskyite) put up an article claiming that 100K Ukrainian troops have been killed in the war (as opposed to total casualties including killed, wounded and captured) and links back to this article from Politco making the claim. This seems like a massive escalation since last I heard the 100k figure was more for the total casualties of Ukrainian forces. Is this reliable, considering its more Politco making the claim? They cite unnamed US officials as the source of the claim. 100k total causalities is a number that has been floating around for a while now so it's very possible that some politician just confused causalities with 'killed'. It happens all the time. IIRC it even happened to von der Leyen in a speech. And Politico is not exactly a paragon of journalism to fact check the claim.
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Mar 17, 2023 15:03
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GABA ghoul posted:They cite unnamed US officials as the source of the claim. 100k total causalities is a number that has been floating around for a while now so it's very possible that some politician just confused causalities with 'killed'. It happens all the time. IIRC it even happened to von der Leyen in a speech. And Politico is not exactly a paragon of journalism to fact check the claim. Could you double count casualties? Like let’s say you had 100,000 casualties. If 50,000 of them are people who got injured, received medical care, recovered and then returned to active duty are those people still considered a casualty?
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Mar 17, 2023 15:17
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I believe that in WW2 western front, you could roughly expect a 1:4 KIA:WIA ratio. So for every man killed in battle, 4 would be wounded enough to be not of immediate use. While both weaponry and medical care have improved and its very context dependent, it's a useful rule of thumb. If 500k less Ukrainians were unable to service in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, we'd see much more evidence for this in Ukrainian society and mobilisation. It is still a free, open country after all.
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Mar 17, 2023 15:21
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If you were like me and wondering about simultaneous reports of Slovakia donating 13 MiGs and then having 11 and leaving one for museum: https://mobile.twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1636714402425499648
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Mar 17, 2023 15:29
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khwarezm posted:The Trotskyite site World Socialist Web Site (I'm not trying to lazily call them tankies or something, they call themselves Trotskyite) put up an article claiming that 100K Ukrainian troops have been killed in the war (as opposed to total casualties including killed, wounded and captured) and links back to this article from Politco making the claim. This seems like a massive escalation since last I heard the 100k figure was more for the total casualties of Ukrainian forces. Is this reliable, considering its more Politco making the claim? Almost certainly confusing killed with casualty. With internal lines, almost entirely defensive fighting and reasonable medical care there would be many casualties per death, and it's not reasonable that they've taken 250k-500k casualties given the size of the armies. 20-30k dead and 100k casualties would be much more reasonable given the total combatants.
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Mar 17, 2023 15:32
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OddObserver posted:If you were like me and wondering about simultaneous reports of Slovakia donating 13 MiGs and then having 11 and leaving one for museum: 10 ready jets and 3 parts donors planes sounds, well, pretty good!
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Mar 17, 2023 15:34
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Kraftwerk posted:Could you double count casualties? I assume that they have separate totals for "1st wounded" and "re-wounded" and the people making announcements get to pick and choose which numbers to use and/or combine in order to help sell the point they are making with that announcement?
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Mar 17, 2023 15:35
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Kremlin actually not as hyperbolic as I expected. https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1636746068426649600?t=HbTK5bxZRATPCTu_QhvOXw&s=19 quote:Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov condemned the plans, saying that the aircraft would not affect the outcome of Moscow's "special military operation", as it calls the war.
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Mar 17, 2023 16:14
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Largely symbolic, I'm sure, but ICC has issued an arrest warrant for Putin: https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and
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Mar 17, 2023 16:18
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Kraftwerk posted:Could you double count casualties? Yes. The same person can be a casualty multiple times. Even the definition of Wounded In Action (WIA) has a spectrum of meanings. Many WIA return to duty within 24 hours; others take months; others never return to duty.
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Mar 17, 2023 16:24
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Sir Bobert Fishbone posted:Largely symbolic, I'm sure, but ICC has issued an arrest warrant for Putin: If anyone wonders about Lvova-Belova involvement, there are recent reports by Yale and by EBU.
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Mar 17, 2023 16:26
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Someone has probably posted it, but the ICC has issued a warrant for Putin. https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1636752275346542593?t=h8Bpca-BeNVDAILzuweMDw&s=19 Unlikely to have any major changes (they have issued warrants for other dictators in the past.) I'm glad to see that it was the forced kidnapping of children that was the main catalyst for this. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 17, 2023 16:35
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Moon Slayer posted:Kremlin actually not as hyperbolic as I expected. All the nuclear threats that get reposted are usually coming from their propagandists or Medvedev and the like.
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Mar 17, 2023 16:38
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So realistically, the worst that’s probably going to happen is that Putin can never leave Russia except for any of the nations that are practically extensions of Russia, right?
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Mar 17, 2023 16:42
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How are the planes being delivered? That was one of the excuses early on for why everyone was dragging their feet.
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Mar 17, 2023 16:42
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Rinkles posted:How are the planes being delivered? That was one of the excuses early on for why everyone was dragging their feet. I assume it's going to be whatever is the official way to move planes like that with ground cargo transport. Regalingualius posted:So realistically, the worst that’s probably going to happen is that Putin can never leave Russia except for any of the nations that are practically extensions of Russia, right? Even in countries that are going to recognise the ICC warrant, which is far from all of them, he is still a head of a state, with ensuing privileges like diplomatic immunity. This move represents simply the due process on the ICC end, rather than a practical development.
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Mar 17, 2023 16:46
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Taxi 'em down the highway all the way there, make a parade out of it I say.
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Mar 17, 2023 16:48
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Double post for actual content: https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1636756451333947394?t=U0s8BVNDxYlDGSpcMWTQBA&s=19 quote:Turkey is facing presidential and parliamentary elections on 14 May. Assuming the parliament ratifies Finland's accession beforehand, the government in Helsinki still has to secure the support of Hungary. Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 16:52 on Mar 17, 2023 |
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Mar 17, 2023 16:50
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The Question IRL posted:Someone has probably posted it, but the ICC has issued a warrant for Putin. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1636757491320061957 (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 17, 2023 17:39
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The ICC warrant is unlikely to actually result in anything (unless someone coups and decides to hand him over) but I assume this means the already reportedly paranoid Putin won't be leaving Russia anytime soon -- well, except maybe Belarus/North Korea/China.
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Mar 17, 2023 17:41
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Sir Bobert Fishbone posted:Largely symbolic, I'm sure, but ICC has issued an arrest warrant for Putin: Putin whatever, not likely to live to see Hague but Lvova-Belova immediately named is a great move, she is a monster and should not escape trial (and is a figure that is most likely to be given away if the deals would need to be made).
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Mar 17, 2023 17:42
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fatherboxx posted:Putin whatever, not likely to live to see Hague but Lvova-Belova immediately named is a great move, she is a monster and should not escape trial (and is a figure that is most likely to be given away if the deals would need to be made). I think it was probably a strategic move to move them up to prominence next to putin in this announcement, because it puts eyes and interest in their program of relocation and at least some of the nature of what exactly transpired (that we can even verify) because it's, frankly, horrible
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Mar 17, 2023 17:53
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cinci edit: deleted post (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) (USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST) (USER WAS PERMABANNED FOR THIS POST) Somebody fucked around with this message at 23:30 on Mar 17, 2023 |
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Mar 17, 2023 23:00
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khwarezm posted:The Trotskyite site World Socialist Web Site (I'm not trying to lazily call them tankies or something, they call themselves Trotskyite) put up an article claiming that 100K Ukrainian troops have been killed in the war (as opposed to total casualties including killed, wounded and captured) and links back to this article from Politco making the claim. This seems like a massive escalation since last I heard the 100k figure was more for the total casualties of Ukrainian forces. Is this reliable, considering its more Politco making the claim? I would not consider trots to be "tankies" because they are ideologically opposed to supporting any and all states like the USSR and modern Russia etc.
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Mar 17, 2023 23:18
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MOVIE MAJICK posted:War is hell I'm sure the terminally online ones can find it just like we can, but no mainstream channel (including like the telegram stuff) is going to be sharing footage like this. I don't know if there are any anti-war movements let alone ones that aren't just regime honeypots to spread it either. As for effectiveness, I dunno. Didn't the reports from Vietnam have a measurable impacts on support for the war? The difference of course there was some sort of actual journalism happening, and Americans didn't see a clear purpose. The russians are all convinced that if they weren't fighting over there, the homonazis would be burning down the Kremlin right now, and so could easily brush it off as necessary.
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Mar 17, 2023 23:30
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MOVIE MAJICK posted:cinci edit: deleted post Yeah thx for deleting that. holy poo poo I'm usually pretty cool with horror scenes, but that hit pretty hard. As NMS as can be
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Mar 17, 2023 23:36
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And here I was trying to enjoy some fruit tea at 1am on Friday.
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Mar 17, 2023 23:44
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Ruined my Friday... but war will do that.
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Mar 18, 2023 00:01
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TheSpartacus posted:Ruined my Friday... but war will do that. Friday is already over! But it will ruin Saturday too.
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Mar 18, 2023 00:02
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France24 has a special about Ukrainian farmers and how they deal with uxo. mild  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFbuJaYsfe8Some crazy real life minesweeper stuff. Two guys just pick up a shells with their bare hands because they didn't see a detonator. There is an interview with a guy who survived a detonation with injuries, hence the tag.
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Mar 18, 2023 00:31
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What the hell did they post? I understand it was graphic, but was it significant in any way?
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Mar 18, 2023 01:43
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Nitrox posted:What the hell did they post? I understand it was graphic, but was it significant in any way? If it was what the ban reason makes me think it was, then it was most likely a drone video of Russian solider dying a messy death in combat. Gruesome, but not especially significant.
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Mar 18, 2023 01:52
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