|
It is a war, and gross poo poo happens, but no one needs to post videos about it.
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 02:01
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 15:13 |
|
|
Nitrox posted:What the hell did they post? I understand it was graphic, but was it significant in any way? It was not informative in any way, move on.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 02:10
|
|
|
The US is reportedly sending Russian asylum seeking draft dodgers back to Russia. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/18/biden-administration-russia-deportations
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 14:34
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/1636758023937966082 The Guardian's editor for defence affairs spoke with some NATO folks. There's a longer thread inside, but these two tweets should capture the interesting part of it. It sounds like artillery combat is ablating, due to logistics pressures an all ends if I had to guess, and factoring the ratio in we're looking at a NATO estimate of 400 dead and 1200 wounded for Russia per day. Official AFU claim in the recent days, for contrast, have been in the ballpark of 800 eliminations per day. I think it's also safe to say that “order of magnitude” here is used very creatively, as in a 3-digit figure of total casualties, and it could very well be like 200 dead and 600 wounded per day. Nevertheless, I guess the point about trading at an advantage is there to be made.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 14:49
|
|
|
nutri_void posted:The US is reportedly sending Russian asylum seeking draft dodgers back to Russia. Edit: I mean there's nothing in the article that actually links Biden credibly with a change of policy. Just statements from ICE. Cable Guy fucked around with this message at 15:03 on Mar 18, 2023 |
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 14:58
|
|
|
nutri_void posted:The US is reportedly sending Russian asylum seeking draft dodgers back to Russia. Reading carefully, this is apparently one individual, and the only source speaking on the case is their attorney, so it's hard to tell what other information or context is missing.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 15:02
|
|
|
Discendo Vox posted:Reading carefully, this is apparently one individual, and the only source speaking on the case is their attorney, so it's hard to tell what other information or context is missing. True but ICE isn't exactly a body that should ever be given the benefit of the doubt
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 15:04
|
|
|
People who think 24/7 booze and drugs orgies are good tend to not be people that do them. Being married rules. I could do without the cancer, the wasted twenties, the unsafe sexual partners whose names I don't remember, the many lost friends I hurt... There's a reason everyone either leaves that lifestyle or dies. also didn't know I was reading r/atheism
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 15:27
|
|
|
Edgar Allen Ho posted:People who think 24/7 booze and drugs orgies are good tend to not be people that do them. Being married rules. I could do without the cancer, the wasted twenties, the unsafe sexual partners whose names I don't remember, the many lost friends I hurt... I think you’re posting in the wrong thread, friend. Live your best life and take the judgments elsewhere.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 15:31
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/1636758023937966082 This in conjunction with the Politico article I posted yesterday makes it hard to know what to believe coming out of this conflict, which I suppose you could say about any conflict the world over. Both sides are hugely motivated to claim that the losses of the other are much higher than their own. I don't really know why I should truly believe what NATO estimates are for Russian losses and what the Ukrainian estimates are for their own, there's a clear and very strong vested interest to only release the most favourable estimates.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 15:43
|
|
|
khwarezm posted:This in conjunction with the Politico article I posted yesterday makes it hard to know what to believe coming out of this conflict, which I suppose you could say about any conflict the world over. Both sides are hugely motivated to claim that the losses of the other are much higher than their own. I don't really know why I should truly believe what NATO estimates are for Russian losses and what the Ukrainian estimates are for their own, there's a clear and very strong vested interest to only release the most favourable estimates. Your Politico article and this piece don't contradict, I'm not sure why you're mentioning it even. Most importantly, there's never been a point in this war, much like in any other war, where any of the involved parties communicates in a manner that doesn't distort information in favour of the objectives of their communications strategy. Blindly believing any single voice is and has always been stupid, this is basic common sense. If you're interested in following what's going on, your only option is to information from as many non-poo poo sources as you possibly can, and to make your own decision on what the synthesis of it looks like to you.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 15:56
|
|
|
Discendo Vox posted:Reading carefully, this is apparently one individual, and the only source speaking on the case is their attorney, so it's hard to tell what other information or context is missing. One thing to keep in mind is that asylum cases in the US are largely at the whim of immigration judges. There could be a judge who must doesn't personally think fleeing a war of aggression, criticizing which will land you in prison or worse, meets the criteria for persecution under the law. That would not require any policy directive from the Biden administration, and it could look like one to an outside observer.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 16:01
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:Your Politico article and this piece don't contradict, I'm not sure why you're mentioning it even. Most importantly, there's never been a point in this war, much like in any other war, where any of the involved parties communicates in a manner that doesn't distort information in favour of the objectives of their communications strategy. Blindly believing any single voice is and has always been stupid, this is basic common sense. If you're interested in following what's going on, your only option is to information from as many non-poo poo sources as you possibly can, and to make your own decision on what the synthesis of it looks like to you. Well, do you believe it? Since this is straight from NATO and obviously it will be contested by the other side? Cpt_Obvious posted:I would not consider trots to be "tankies" because they are ideologically opposed to supporting any and all states like the USSR and modern Russia etc. It doesn't make much of a difference and WSWS is the kind of site that at best stays mum about Russian actions and complains endlessly about NATO/Ukraine. As far as I'm concerned they end up in the same kind of space as something like the Grayzone. khwarezm fucked around with this message at 16:06 on Mar 18, 2023 |
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 16:01
|
|
|
khwarezm posted:Well, do you believe it? Since this is straight from NATO and obviously it will be contested by the other side? You can kind-of judge the reliability by looking at other context, like that russians don't seem to be very happy with how things are going, or that Ukraine chooses to stick it out there, which means it's presumably judged to be an advantageous position. But even then it's not perfect, maybe the losses are much worse but are still judged to be worth it to distract from something else, etc.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 16:12
|
|
|
khwarezm posted:Well, do you believe it? Since this is straight from NATO and obviously it will be contested by the other side? I have no reason to think that the number is precise, but simultaneously I don't have any reasons to consider the number wildly unrealistic. As it's de facto impossible to rigorously establish the facts of the situation presently, I'm also not especially invested in seeing individual confirmations or rebuttals of this specific statement. That said, I'm generally disinterested in Russia's rebuttals of it. The reason for that being that if Ukraine and NATO communicate with the objectives of sentiment management, i.e., that they usually serve real information through a warped presentation, then the Russian communication strategy is to overload the discourse with conflicting junk “information”. I am about as interested in that as in voluntarily developing a food poisoning. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 16:25 on Mar 18, 2023 |
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 16:18
|
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:No? As cinci said, you can't take any public statements at face value. The numbers could be made up, or spun in a million ways, or released at selectively in order to create a certain impression. You won't get anything reliable until after the war, and maybe not even then. But he's saying to only find the non-poo poo sources, so can I just disregard the stuff that comes from anonymous, avowed NATO sources as one of those poo poo sources who will almost certainly (and have) say that the Russians are taking far higher casualties to a point of hundreds of dead every day and that the Ukrainians are taking an order of magnitude less losses than the Russians? This is the issue, I don't see how anything about that is trustworthy enough to even get off the ground.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 16:24
|
|
|
khwarezm posted:But he's saying to only find the non-poo poo sources, so can I just disregard the stuff that comes from anonymous, avowed NATO sources as one of those poo poo sources who will almost certainly (and have) say that the Russians are taking far higher casualties to a point of hundreds of dead every day and that the Ukrainians are taking an order of magnitude less losses than the Russians? This is the issue, I don't see how anything about that is trustworthy enough to even get off the ground. I have a very simple solution to your problem – declare that it's impossible to learn anything about the war, and stop following it. I'm not even joking here.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 16:26
|
|
|
For what it's worth, BBC Russia's estimates based on public sources showed over 1500 new burials a week for the past month or so, a sharp increase compared to last year when it was around 600 or less. There is a lag of about a month with how long it takes to confirm someone's death and issue a public statement, however, so what is known for sure is that the Bakhmut offensive has resulted in increased losses by Russia at some point in the past. Whether it's still at the same level now is almost impossible to tell.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 16:34
|
|
|
Speaking of investigations, UN is wrapping up its initial conclusions for some of the more prominent Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians last year. A/HRC/52/62quote:31. The circumstance of the attacks launched or likely launched by Russian armed forces
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 17:03
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:I think it's also safe to say that “order of magnitude” here is used very creatively Apologies if I'm not adding anything but it's not too uncommon for "order of magnitude" to be used in place of multiples. I'd interpret this to imply a 2x casualty ratio minimum.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 17:32
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:I think it's also safe to say that “order of magnitude” here is used very creatively...  I know there's a lot of focus on shell ratios, and that does matter, but something often ignored in such simple analyses are the relative effectiveness of each side's artillery. I assume Russia is reducing the time from target identification to target engagement compared to the beginning of the war, but anecdotes suggest many Ukrainian units still have an advantage here. Perhaps more importantly, Ukraine's NATO-provided artillery is more accurate. Even unguided shells are unlikely to be past their expiration date, and the ability to add guidance systems to existing 155mm shells is a significant advantage for Ukraine. The number of fire missions required to achieve a desired effect is probably lower for Ukraine than for Russia.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 17:40
|
|
|
Some Wagner troopers are back from fighting (if they did instead of sending in convict cannon fodder) to idiot theater https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1637130834133020677 Love the skull masks, really good for image
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 17:50
|
|
|
Bashez posted:Apologies if I'm not adding anything but it's not too uncommon for "order of magnitude" to be used in place of multiples. I'd interpret this to imply a 2x casualty ratio minimum. Order of magnitude means divide/multiply by 10. I'm not aware of any other meaning: 100s of something is an order of magnitude less than 1000s of something.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 17:56
|
|
|
Ynglaur posted:Maybe they're using base-2! I wonder how the barrels are doing for the NATO supplied artillery cannons Ukraine is using. From what I've heard before they are firing these guns way more than they were meant to be fired which means the barrels are wearing out faster.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 18:00
|
|
|
fatherboxx posted:Love the skull masks, really good for image But yeah, they don't across as...anything but evil bastards.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 18:05
|
|
|
Cicero posted:Why skulls though? Americans have achieved supreme culture victory, Wagner in Syria really pretended to be the big bad PMC from western movies and videogames Turned out they are worth mostly as management for penal battalions
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 18:10
|
|
|
Cicero posted:Why skulls though? “Me big tough scary guy”
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 18:14
|
|
|
Boris Galerkin posted:Order of magnitude means divide/multiply by 10. I'm not aware of any other meaning: 100s of something is an order of magnitude less than 1000s of something. I have seen it incorrectly used to mean 2x enough that if 10x doesn't make sense that would be my fall back interpretation.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 18:25
|
|
|
tehinternet posted:I think you’re posting in the wrong thread, friend. Live your best life and take the judgments elsewhere. guess everyone succumbs to goon tab blindness sooner or later. Woopsy.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 18:25
|
|
|
Scratch Monkey posted:“Me big tough scary guy”
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 18:29
|
|
|
Scratch Monkey posted:“Me big tough scary guy” ...from old calladooty video game. Cosplay, basically.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 18:43
|
|
|
Charliegrs posted:I wonder how the barrels are doing for the NATO supplied artillery cannons Ukraine is using. From what I've heard before they are firing these guns way more than they were meant to be fired which means the barrels are wearing out faster. In many cases, poorly. I saw a former artilleryman wince at some footage of a Ukrainian crew failing to clear mud out of the breech. Ukraine is doing very well, but in at least some cases the lack of time to train will negatively impact logistics, and thus tactical and operational effectiveness.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 18:57
|
|
|
Anybody know how accurate the CIT is?: https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1637128381966712833?cxt=HHwWgoCwrd3ln7gtAAAA Some quotes: quote:In Mari El [Russia’s constituent republic], military training has been announced, citing an unpublished decree of the president. The regional government has reported that military reservist training will be conducted in the republic based on a presidential decree from Feb. 22, despite the fact that such a document is not available on the official website of Putin's decrees. Yesterday, Pavel Chikov called draft notices, which summon reservists for military training illegal because the presidential decree on them has not been published. Human rights activist Maxim Grebenyuk suggested in an interview with 7x7 that it could have been issued "secretly." quote:The accelerated mailing of draft notices suggests that Russian authorities are actively preparing for a new wave of mobilization. However, as a first step, draft offices are likely to try to recruit as many volunteers as possible. Sources of the Vyorstka media outlet close to the Central Federal District administration and to the Parliament believe that draft notices are being sent out with a view to obtain up-to-date information on men liable for military service — information draft offices clearly lack due to their poor record-keeping and inadequate computer equipment. The sources could not estimate the exact timing of the new mobilization wave but claimed that draft offices and security services are “combat-ready” to embark on it any day. quote:Mobilized soldiers from the Belgorod region stopped receiving wages in December. Relatives are told that the soldiers allegedly left the frontlines, although they continue to fight. quote:Teachers of the Irkutsk National Research Technical University were forced to "voluntarily" donate part of their salary for the needs of the "special military operation". According to the teachers, the management ordered them to sign a consent form to withhold 3,000 rubles from their salaries for the needs of the “special operation.” Meanwhile, the average salary at the facility is 35 thousand rubles. Not sure if this is just a gathering of random unverified telegram posts.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 19:20
|
|
|
Cicero posted:Why skulls though? That's been Wagner's MO from day one.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 19:30
|
|
|
WarpedLichen posted:Anybody know how accurate the CIT is?: CIT is excellent normally. It's a team of Russian-speaking OSINT investigators.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 20:09
|
|
|
The thing I don't get is how Putin legitimately believes NATO is an expansionist threat to Russia, yet this entire invasion was based on the premise of them doing nothing. Either NATO will invade Russia in the future or NATO will do nothing when Russia engages in an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. He can't have it both ways.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 20:18
|
|
|
It's a threat because countries under the NATO umbrella can't just outright be forced with military action to do what he wants compared to Central Asia countries that effectively at his mercy and have had to appeal to him.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 20:26
|
|
|
Lammasu posted:The thing I don't get is how Putin legitimately believes NATO is an expansionist threat to Russia, yet this entire invasion was based on the premise of them doing nothing. Either NATO will invade Russia in the future or NATO will do nothing when Russia engages in an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. He can't have it both ways. that NATO is an expansionist threat not through open military confrontation, but instead through sponsoring NGOs and middle-class activists, then inciting mass urban protests and loss of governing credibility through financial or ideological pressure, during which said NGOs and middle-class activists will rise to the forefront as the default credible alternative hard power to install a favourable government, and establishing a Brezhnevesque doctrine that any future attempts at reform will be met similarly (through swift three-day decapitation actions, not a quagmire), is certainly a kind of response
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 20:35
|
|
|
Lammasu posted:The thing I don't get is how Putin legitimately believes NATO is an expansionist threat to Russia, yet this entire invasion was based on the premise of them doing nothing. Either NATO will invade Russia in the future or NATO will do nothing when Russia engages in an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. He can't have it both ways. The plan was to conquer Ukraine in a 3-day blitzkrieg and then present the conquest to NATO as a fait accompli with the expectation that they would ultimately do nothing, like with Crimea. Putin wasn't expecting to have it both ways. The current situation, where NATO is actually doing something, represents a failure.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 20:40
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 15:13 |
|
|
Putin believes in the Russian nationalist version of Manifest Destiny. Key parts of Russian empire slipping from Moscow's control to EU/NATO is a threat to the eventual restoration of Russian empire. What's worse, Ukraine or Belarus becoming successful liberal democracies would present the question why Russia can't be led without poisoning the underwear of opposition leaders, so that would threaten the current Russian political system itself. A repeat of the 90's chaos is probably not something that any Russian who remembers the era wants, but for Putin it would also mean the cancellation of his life work.
|
|
#
?
Mar 18, 2023 20:42
|
|
