[Doomsday Economics] Home of Kirbeh's FREE SLICE ($25 delivery fee)

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(Thread IKs: skooma512)

Cuttlefush: Jan 15, 2014; gotta have my purp

Spoondick posted:

don't be surprised when big piss comes after you

heh

# ? Mar 18, 2023 14:17

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 24, 2024 23:15

Orvin: Sep 9, 2006

Mr Hootington posted:

This is exactly what the Swiss do not want to happen lol

The SNB and Swiss government do not want outside, specifically American, banks to take over credit suisse.

Why would anyone want to acquire Credit Suisse? Seems like that bank is continuously on the brink of failure. Is this a offer a snickers for the shares scenario, to get at the underlying assets?

Why would an out side entity want in on CS? Is it just to gain a foothold in Switzerland? Or do they think they get access to the maps where the �Lost Gold� is buried?

# ? Mar 18, 2023 14:21

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

Wraith of J.O.I. posted:

jon stewart with some decent questions here (relative to the ones summers usually gets)

https://twitter.com/TheProblem/status/1636668703692697605

Summers looks uncannily like a lizard person here. I keep expecting him to suddenly have a prehensile tongue licking his teeth before he lunges forward to rip out Stewart's throat

# ? Mar 18, 2023 14:25

Woke Mind Virus: Aug 22, 2005

Orvin posted:

Why would anyone want to acquire Credit Suisse? Seems like that bank is continuously on the brink of failure. Is this a offer a snickers for the shares scenario, to get at the underlying assets?

Why would an out side entity want in on CS? Is it just to gain a foothold in Switzerland? Or do they think they get access to the maps where the “Lost Gold” is buried?

I want it but that's just me

# ? Mar 18, 2023 14:28

Cuttlefush: Jan 15, 2014; gotta have my purp

SKULL.GIF posted:

Summers looks uncannily like a lizard person here. I keep expecting him to suddenly have a prehensile tongue licking his teeth before he lunges forward to rip out Stewart's throat

you can see his membranes nictating

# ? Mar 18, 2023 14:29

DrPossum: May 15, 2004; i am not a surgeon

George H.W. oval office posted:

Shouldn't have killed Vine

# ? Mar 18, 2023 14:29

DrPossum: May 15, 2004; i am not a surgeon

wells fargo is the henry kissinger of banks

# ? Mar 18, 2023 14:32

Mirthless: Mar 27, 2011; by the sex ghost

Rectal Death Adept posted:

I don't want to inflame anymore cross forum tensions or whatever but for anyone being menaced by Mirthless, don't blame us. They just decided to come here after getting ran out of the gbs relationships thread for being dumb and we've been stuck dealing with it ever since.

dude I haven't posted in GBS regularly since 2017

it's been half a decade, you need to move on

Mirthless has issued a correction as of 14:57 on Mar 18, 2023

# ? Mar 18, 2023 14:52

Cpt_Obvious: Jun 18, 2007

All are welcome in the house of Number.

# ? Mar 18, 2023 15:25

Mr Hootington: Jul 24, 2008; I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

Cpt_Obvious posted:

All are welcome in the house of Number.

I welcome all to post about your $10,000 forever tables.

# ? Mar 18, 2023 15:50

wynott dunn: Aug 9, 2006; What is to be done?

Who or what can challenge, and stand a chance at beating, the corporate juggernauts dominating the world?

Mr Hootington posted:

I welcome all to post about your $10,000 forever tables.

only if you serve guests off of paper plates at the table

# ? Mar 18, 2023 16:01

Tirade: Jul 17, 2001; Cybertron must act decisively to prevent and oppose acts of genocide and violations of international robot rights law and to bring perpetrators before the Decepticon Justice Division; Pillbug

Spoondick posted:

don't be surprised when big piss comes after you

Big Piss has lost its way. I'm selling 100% craft piss. Artisanal piss, free of the colors and preservatives found in commercial bottled piss.

Support your local piss merchants.

# ? Mar 18, 2023 16:06

Cuttlefush: Jan 15, 2014; gotta have my purp

You are above even The Piss. I hereby award you the title of Big Piss. You are a true patriot.

# ? Mar 18, 2023 16:09

Hubbert: Mar 25, 2007; At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

Cuttlefush posted:

You are above even The Piss. I hereby award you the title of Big Piss. You are a true patriot.

snake pissken

# ? Mar 18, 2023 16:13

FistEnergy: Nov 3, 2000; DAY CREW: WORKING HARD; Fun Shoe

skaboomizzy posted:

https://twitter.com/prem_thakker/status/1636832350167343104

the ghostly tones of "16 Tons" can be faintly heard

https://twitter.com/GarthPhoebus/status/1636894908098256897?s=20

:thermidor:

# ? Mar 18, 2023 16:20

JAY ZERO SUM GAME: Oct 18, 2005; Walter.
I know you know how to do this.
Get up.

i will fight big piss

# ? Mar 18, 2023 16:25

Egg Moron: Jul 21, 2003; the dreams of the delighting void

It may not be the piss you want but it will always be the piss you deserve

# ? Mar 18, 2023 16:35

cool av: Mar 2, 2013

FistEnergy posted:

https://twitter.com/GarthPhoebus/status/1636894908098256897?s=20

lol

https://twitter.com/GarthPhoebus/status/1636905907488448516

# ? Mar 18, 2023 16:38

Frosted Flake: Sep 13, 2011; Semper Shitpost Ubique

FistEnergy posted:

https://twitter.com/GarthPhoebus/status/1636894908098256897?s=20

Why are Americans like this?

# ? Mar 18, 2023 16:39

Horseshoe theory: Mar 7, 2005

Frosted Flake posted:

Why are Americans like this?

Because it was spawned as a demon cracker nation called :amerikkka:

, OP.

# ? Mar 18, 2023 16:42

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

Frosted Flake posted:

Why are Americans like this?

Excuse me, please don't disrespect the esteemed Garth Phoebus. Being inclusive of the rightoids is critical to any good socialist movement.

# ? Mar 18, 2023 16:45

Buddykins: Feb 12, 2011

Frosted Flake posted:

Why are Americans like this?

lmao

# ? Mar 18, 2023 17:26

Buddykins: Feb 12, 2011

Horseshoe theory posted:

Because it was spawned as a demon cracker nation called , OP.

# ? Mar 18, 2023 17:26

actionjackson: Jan 12, 2003

Mr Hootington posted:

Good job Minnesota
https://twitter.com/MorePerfectUS/status/1636824655582597120?t=gs4qY_yyo67KF8NEAZgF9Q&s=19

our legislature also just passed driver's licenses for illegal immigrants, and a right to abortion has been codified into state law. we have a lot of people from underserved communities in said legislature (well the metro reps at least) which helps. prob why the state dems are actually doing a few good things

# ? Mar 18, 2023 17:38

Paradoxish: Dec 19, 2003; Will you stop going crazy in there?

Frosted Flake posted:

Why are Americans like this?

Right wing idiots follow an ideology based entirely on being terrified and needing to create as many security blankets for themselves as possible. They're scared of change, they're scared of people who don't look like them, and they're terrified of the government. "Private companies can always do it better" is another security blanket that makes them feel better about themselves, their place in the world, and their ability to be "free."

# ? Mar 18, 2023 17:44

webcams for christ: Nov 2, 2005

Orvin posted:

Why would anyone want to acquire Credit Suisse? Seems like that bank is continuously on the brink of failure. Is this a offer a snickers for the shares scenario, to get at the underlying assets?

Why would an out side entity want in on CS? Is it just to gain a foothold in Switzerland? Or do they think they get access to the maps where the �Lost Gold� is buried?

short answer: at the close of 2022, CS had 1.3 trillion CHF worth of assets under management, and their retail bank is perfectly healthy.

longer answer is an FT article comparing it to SVB that helps with perspective:

FT posted:

Seven ways in which Credit Suisse isn�t SVB

1. Unlike for SVB, liquidity isn�t much of a problem

As Twitter�s Johannes Borgen highlighted on Wednesday:
https://twitter.com/jeuasommenulle/status/1635996023871897603

It�s an important point. Run risk ought to be manageable because the high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) portfolios across the entire European banking sector are thicc. As we reported overnight, CS has been able to tap the newly created Swiss National Bank�s liquidity backstop for Sfr39bn while reassuring that the volume of duration fixed income securities �is not material compared to the overall HQLA portfolio�.

CS�s liquidity coverage ratio fell from a 192 per cent average in the third quarter 2022 to as low as 120-130 per cent in the fourth, and that was when market funding was a lot cheaper. Nevertheless, at spot pricing, before taking account of the backstop, the LCR was 150 per cent � which is not great, but not justification to panic either.

2. Unlike for SVB, depositors don�t suffer overly from digitally weaponised herd mentality

SVB was killed by deposit flight among a very small group of customers who all read the same Substacks, chatted in the same Slack groups and mostly took directions from the same overlord.

CS�s latest wobble came after its biggest shareholder put some words in an unfortunate combination when speaking to Bloomberg, and as the commentariat misread elevated CDS prices as a portent of doom rather than a gauge of hedging activity. There�s really not much of a parallel, risk wise.

3. Unlike for SVB, regulation is pre-emptive and probably proportionate

Wednesday's statement from the Swiss National Bank and the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority spent a lot longer dunking on America than it did pledging support. What might look like chippy jingoism was more likely intended as signal that, at least in the short term, a forcible shutdown isn�t on the cards. The risk of waking up and finding CS equity zeroed has been taken off the table, which has cooled the mood considerably.

4. Unlike for SVB, there�s useful precedent

As well as using the state backstop, CS is making tender offers to repurchase �certain OpCo senior debt securities for cash of up to approximately Sfr3bn�. It�s a similar short-squeeze gambit to the one Deutsche Bank deployed in 2016, to ease jitters over its exposure to a plunge in yields.

According to JPMorgan, CS�s repurchases . . .
quote:
. . . should establish a floor under funding levels and with material tender premiums, seeks to drive valuations to more acceptable levels. While we note that tendering for the HoldCo debt with the lower cash prices might have produced a more material impact, the reality is that it would be difficult to tender for instruments that fulfil a regulatory requirement.

5. Unlike for SVB, there�s 167 years of franchise value

That�s not necessarily a good thing, to be clear. There are obvious downsides to having a franchise that�s associated with Archegos, Greensill Capital, Mozambique tuna bonds, Bulgarian money laundering, corporate espionage, etc.

Confidence in CS�s investment bank is widely considered to be shot, optimism about the three-year turnround is fragile, deposit bleed has yet to be stanched, and the wealth management division is losing money, which is the finance equivalent of jumping off a boat and missing the water.

Co-ordinated action to save CS from a run may have bought time to figure out the next move, but probably not much. Here�s what Barclays forecasts:
quote:
In terms of our estimates, independent of recent events, we anticipate very material losses in 2023 (CHF4.5bn), and in 2024 (CHF2.9bn), when management is aiming for a break even performance. As such, we see the CET1 ratio dropping below the interim target in 2024 (as a result of losses), but still above regulatory minima at c.12%.

There�s a bear case to make along the lines of �if liquidity�s fine then why is CS drawing down state aid and damaging its franchise?�, to which the answer is probably, �what franchise?� The above is why CS is already on its seventh restructuring plan since 2011, with an eighth likely to be on the way shortly.

6. Unlike for SVB, there are options other than the most drastic one

A full closure of CS�s investment bank would cost about Sfr10bn. It�s something that should be considered, since given point 5 its counterparties have had plenty of time to prepare for the worst.

CS�s prime broking business has already been shuttered and management is quietly rolling off the risk. The bottom line is that CS just isn�t that important to global financial stability any more, which gives the route of an IB closure and the partial float of Credit Suisse Switzerland an appealing elegance. Whether markets have the stomach for another complicated and long-dated restructuring plan is the bigger question, to which the answer is probably no.

7. Unlike for SVB, there is one obvious buyer (even if it may be a reluctant one)

Looking at you here, UBS.

JPMorgan analysts were telling clients overnight that a sale of CS, probably to UBS, was the most obvious outcome. In its scenario the creation of a Swiss national champion would lead to . . .
quote:
. . . an IPO or spinoff to NewCo S/Hs of the Swiss Bank worth CHF 10bn as combined market share equals roughly 30% and hence we see too much concentration risk and market share control in the Swiss domestic market; ii) full closure of the IB with CHF 30bn of badwill the IB and group restructuring can be financed �through CSG� itself; and iii) retention of WM/AM. We see material WM overlap especially in UHNW with both UBS and CSG at 55% of AuM in UHNW we estimate as well as overlap in Asia and Swiss onshore business.

[ . . . ]

In our view, Julius Bear would benefit the most gaining advisors and market share in such a scenario involving the restructuring process of UBS-CS. Hence Julius BAER would be our preferred Swiss Wealth Manager currently. For UBS we do believe on an absolute basis even with revenue overlaps, due to the Swiss Bank IPO value creation to S/Hs and badwill creation, a NewCo UBS would be a positive investment proposition in the L-T. We note CSG, with a leverage exposure to Swiss GDP of 84% and UBS at 133%, will also lead to a gold plating of UBS capital and liquidity position.

In terms of European Banks and counterparty concerns as we expressed earlier we are less concerned than at the time DB was in distress or let alone Lehman. Hence we think share price underperformance of wholesale banks such as DBK (4.7x P/E 2024E), BARC (3.9x P/E 2024E), BNP (6.9x P/E 2024E) as well as by some Money Center Banks is overdone. CSG is trading at P/TBV of 0.2x 2024E, UBS is trading at 7.6x P/E and Julius BAER at 9.6x PE 2024E on our forecasts.

# ? Mar 18, 2023 17:47

Delta-Wye: Sep 29, 2005

cool av posted:

lol

https://twitter.com/GarthPhoebus/status/1636905907488448516

this is so funny, to me

should we pay companies money, so they feed kids? no, thats evil.

its only acceptable if we give them money, in order to hopefully induce them to pay for food, just cause they feel like it. maybe

# ? Mar 18, 2023 17:53

RealityWarCriminal: Aug 10, 2016

Mr Hootington posted:

I welcome all to post about your $10,000 forever tables.

Coming soon to an Ikea near you

# ? Mar 18, 2023 17:56

Lord of Pie: Mar 2, 2007

cool av posted:

lol

https://twitter.com/GarthPhoebus/status/1636905907488448516

Imagine thinking companies will do loving anything for you.

At one of my old jobs, one of the front office ladies broke her fuckin neck in a car wreck and all they did for her was move her to the top of the layoff list before the insurance bills kicked in

# ? Mar 18, 2023 17:57

PostNouveau: Sep 3, 2011; VY till I die; Grimey Drawer

Apparently the Fed chair can do this? So that's fun

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/16/business/fed-regulation-svb.html

# ? Mar 18, 2023 18:02

FlapYoJacks: Feb 12, 2009

Got the crazy landlady�s packet from my brother in the mail.

- She�s claiming we have a 60lb dog that we let pee on the carpet. Put aside that our dog is 30lbs, her evidence is a picture of a clean carpet with a circle around with words next to it that say �Tenants let 60lb dog pee on the carpet.� :confused:

- Pictures of a pile of kitchen floor tiles and an old wheelbarrow and random poo poo in the backyard that was there when we moved in.

- Half the pictures of �poop� are random pieces of bark from the trees???

These pictures make her look extremely dumb and petty to the court. I can�t imagine why she thinks they would help her defense. :psyduck:

# ? Mar 18, 2023 18:03

Cuttlefush: Jan 15, 2014; gotta have my purp

landlords be like

# ? Mar 18, 2023 18:05

Mirthless: Mar 27, 2011; by the sex ghost

PostNouveau posted:

Apparently the Fed chair can do this? So that's fun

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/16/business/fed-regulation-svb.html

Glad the federal reserve chair can tell the president what to do now, lmao

# ? Mar 18, 2023 18:07

Centrist Committee: Aug 6, 2019

Mr Hootington posted:

This is exactly what the Swiss do not want to happen lol

The SNB and Swiss government do not want outside, specifically American, banks to take over credit suisse.

emperor brandon stomping all over the imperial vassals is entertaining to watch

# ? Mar 18, 2023 18:08