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(Thread IKs: skooma512)
 
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SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


Tatsuta Age posted:

uh huh. and where would you be now

Bovine-brained eternal mooer spotted.

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SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


Willa Rogers posted:

lol.

I've had about 2/3 of my ira parked in cash (mainly bc of lassitude) since the beginning of the pandemic & while inflation has eaten into it it's also doing better than the other third.

My on-the-brink-of-retirement mother has repeatedly asked me what to do with her money. I keep telling her to park various slices of it in X-year (X is variable) government bonds and not to think too hard about it. She has some sort of lizard-lipped bank investor telling her to keep it in stonks. It's been a battle.

a_gelatinous_cube
Feb 13, 2005

I've been buying treasuries that mature in 30 days every month. It almost got close to keeping up with inflation, but now yields are cratering so who knows. It has been paying a lot more than keeping cash in account paying 0.1% or whatever. Maybe they'll actually have to raise interest rates on bank accounts now that they are being squeezed for liquidity.

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

Xaris posted:

boulder's a super nice place and was an isolated island in a sea of suburban sprawl poo poo, but yeah it's been way overpriced relative to rest of CO since like 1999. last chance to get in was probably 2002. CO also turned gently caress-off expensive in a span of like 10 years.

it's very funny how insanely bad jacksons rear end in a top hat is these days. i've been there on and off for over 3 decades and it went from kinda a partially-quiet rural-tourist town with an ok pizza joint to turbo rich-people-play-ground with high-end Gallery's and expensive jewelry high-end art poo poo everwhere

Colorado has insanely low property (and income) taxes, tho. I have a relative who was paying $3k/year in property taxes on a house that sold for $400k after they died.

A Bakers Cousin
Dec 18, 2003

by vyelkin
ill be honest i know using boulder is cheating

DancingShade
Jul 26, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

Spoondick posted:

my stepdad was into this poo poo too then a wildfire burnt all his poo poo to ashes in 2 hours... a collapsed society has no woodland firefighters so rugged independent off the grid dudes in forests are going to be in for some surprises

This is why you construct a hidden underground survival bunker that won't care about wildfires.

Instead you'll just suffocate in your sleep when the air recycling gives out.

A Bakers Cousin
Dec 18, 2003

by vyelkin
theres a theme of failed bunkers in the fallout series and i recall one with a back firing air compressor

i am harry
Oct 14, 2003

“bunkers”??!??!!!

A Bakers Cousin
Dec 18, 2003

by vyelkin
not just the vaults, like little personal prepper bunkers

cool av
Mar 2, 2013


lol this is very much on point

DancingShade
Jul 26, 2007

by Fluffdaddy
I like the idea of a survival fort built in the image of a large Mayan pyramid.

Not stealthy but still wildfire proof.

Alternatively: an actual castle, with outer walls, battlements, everything.

A Bakers Cousin
Dec 18, 2003

by vyelkin
ive always thought the whole threat from society was overblown considering how many people would starve to death after month 2 or 3

DancingShade
Jul 26, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

A Bakers Cousin posted:

ive always thought the whole threat from society was overblown considering how many people would starve to death after month 2 or 3

If you cut all supplies to a modern city off it wouldn't last 2 to 3 weeks, tops. Maybe only days.

Mustached Demon
Nov 12, 2016

Basic Poster posted:


I have a 30 year, but I never saw the advantage of limiting those terms down. Cant you just pay it monthly as if it were a 20, but be able to divert money if need be because the payment is less per month in a thirty? And they’ll redo to payment schedule if you go plop like a few thousand extra cash on it.

You get lower rates the quicker the term plus the refinance lowered our rate so much it gave us the same payment

Spoondick
Jun 9, 2000

if your fort makes it through a fire your livestock, agriculture and irrigation won't and if you're depending on surface water for hydration that may become an ash and mud wash for a couple years

A Bakers Cousin
Dec 18, 2003

by vyelkin
building millions of lightning rods in concentric circles around my fort to attempt to prevent forest fires for my survival bunker

Cuttlefush
Jan 15, 2014

gotta have my purp

A Bakers Cousin posted:

building millions of lightning rods in concentric circles around my fort to attempt to prevent forest fires for my survival bunker

just make 3 stone tiles around it for a firebreak

DancingShade
Jul 26, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

A Bakers Cousin posted:

building millions of lightning rods in concentric circles around my fort to attempt to prevent forest fires for my survival bunker

You can bypass this by hunting for animals and gathering food. Become a let's say, hunter gatherer.

hobbez
Mar 1, 2012

Don't care. Just do not care. We win, you lose. You do though, you seem to care very much

I'm going to go ride my mountain bike, later nerds.

err posted:

Anyone out their loving mind if they are buying now.

High prices + high interest rates.


uhhh yea and what happens to prices when rates drop again? you might be waiting quiiiiite a while if you're trying to buy when rates AND prices are low, lmao (this will never happen)

if anything prices right now are suppressed by rates. so maybe you can get a deal on price by avoiding a bidding war (in some areas) and if you get lucky even refinance down the line if rates drop (but no-one should bet the farm on this)

that's how you get a low price and a low rate. or go back in time

hobbez has issued a correction as of 05:47 on Mar 20, 2023

Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

DancingShade posted:

If you cut all supplies to a modern city off it wouldn't last 2 to 3 weeks, tops. Maybe only days.
there's pretty much no to little historic precedent for a city being instantly shutoff. all those famed abandoned cities like Angkor, Mesa Verde, or Sumarian empire and stuff, being snuffed out in an instant doesn't happen. it's just slowly ratcheted downward one problem at a time until hundreds of years later, there's no one except a small handful of people living there. the closest you probably would find is something like serbian war and even then that was still slow and still receiving supplies.

there's an interesting paper on Angkor Wat in particular that came out recently: https://www.pnas.org/doi/epdf/10.1073/pnas.1821879116

that said, we're in very interesting times because of how absolutely dependent we are on modern mega-agriculture fueled by immense unholy amounts of fossil fuels to keep it going. there's no naturally fertile land anymore, very few places with natural consistent irrigation, there's almost no large animals and sea life to hunt anymore, and the amount of land (and labor) it takes to grow food without fossil fuels is loving massive. people hugely misunderestimate how much land is needed to grow enough food for even a family, let alone 100s of people. and, always one disaster away from starving.

but likewise it's not as if our grotesque addiction to oil will shutoff overnight either. instead it'll be ratcheted downward, unwillingly, one disaster at a time.

Xaris has issued a correction as of 05:48 on Mar 20, 2023

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004


I'll due my civic duty for 600 bucks. Where's my 600 bucks?

DickParasite
Dec 2, 2004


Slippery Tilde

A Bakers Cousin posted:

ive always thought the whole threat from society was overblown considering how many people would starve to death after month 2 or 3

You'd get cannibalism in weeks.

DancingShade
Jul 26, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

DickParasite posted:

You'd get cannibalism in weeks.

Anyone who was known or even remotely suspected of hoarding or prepping would be killed by a hungry mob.

To say nothing of the fun once the pipes stop carrying water and people get thirsty.

Centrist Committee
Aug 6, 2019

Xaris posted:

but likewise it's not as if our grotesque addiction to oil will shutoff overnight either. instead it'll be ratcheted downward, unwillingly, one disaster at a time.

yep and already happening

silicone thrills
Jan 9, 2008

I paint things
blood still on the menu for next week?

Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

Centrist Committee posted:

yep and already happening

indeed. in the early 1970s, MIT did LtG modelling predicting big decline around 2040, and empirical observations, 50 years later, to 2020 are remarkably on track.

A Bakers Cousin
Dec 18, 2003

by vyelkin
im in danger

skaboomizzy
Nov 12, 2003

There is nothing I want to be. There is nothing I want to do.
I don't even have an image of what I want to be. I have nothing. All that exists is zero.
I turn 45 this year, there are multiple reasons I hope I won't live to see 65 including my diet, drinking, and living on the FL gulf coast

I only hope I live long enough to see a lot of currently smug shitlords get what's coming for them

DancingShade
Jul 26, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

skaboomizzy posted:

I turn 45 this year, there are multiple reasons I hope I won't live to see 65 including my diet, drinking, and living on the FL gulf coast

I only hope I live long enough to see a lot of currently smug shitlords get what's coming for them

I feel pretty confident the ride will be an interesting one.

Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry
i cant remember if this was posted or not but big shocked pikachu face

quote:

Early signs of a negative equity surge in the auto loans sector have begun to emerge in the first quarter of 2023. According to data from Edmunds, the average negative equity value of auto trade-ins was $5,341 in Q4 2022, up 29% from the previous year. The number of vehicle sales that involved a trade-in with negative equity also jumped by 17% over the same period.

These trends are two of several that are spurring concerns within the automotive and finance industries. A sudden, dramatic increase in negative equity could put countless borrowers in dire financial circumstances and have a ripple effect throughout the financial industry.
...
Recent reports would suggest that many may have been left without the ability to even meet their expenses – let alone find extra room in the budget to pay more towards their car loans. According to a report from Cox Automotive, auto loan delinquency rates have climbed to their highest levels in over 15 years.

Auto loans are considered to be “severely delinquent” when past due by 60 days or more. The data from Cox Automotive shows that 1.89% of all auto loans were severely delinquent in January, 2023 and at the highest rate since 2006, the first year included in the data series.

However, the trend is even more pronounced among borrowers with lower credit scores. The research found that among subprime auto loans, 7.3% were severely delinquent. This rate represents a more than 7% increase over the previous year and is also the highest rate since at least 2006.

While not increasing at quite the same pace as delinquencies, defaults are also on the rise. The auto loan default rate reached 2.72% in January, up 6.2% from December and 33.5% from the prior year. However, January’s rate is still below the annual average rate of 2.9% from 2019.
https://www.automoblog.net/negative-equity-surge-auto-loans/

also i guess this explains carvana's insanely genius business model of paying +$10k more for a sight-unseen used car than it costed when bought new

Xaris has issued a correction as of 07:08 on Mar 20, 2023

anime was right
Jun 27, 2008

death is certain
keep yr cool
just another panic monday...

A Bakers Cousin
Dec 18, 2003

by vyelkin

Xaris posted:

i cant remember if this was posted or not but big shocked pikachu face

https://www.automoblog.net/negative-equity-surge-auto-loans/

also i guess this explains carvana's insanely genius business model of paying +$10k more for a sight-unseed used car than it costed when bought new


lol im a little out of it but slowly reading this and putting together all of what it said was fun

DancingShade
Jul 26, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

Xaris posted:

i cant remember if this was posted or not but big shocked pikachu face

https://www.automoblog.net/negative-equity-surge-auto-loans/

also i guess this explains carvana's insanely genius business model of paying +$10k more for a sight-unseed used car than it costed when bought new


(squinting)

loving hell. I'm not surprised but still. This is why they don't teach financial literacy.

Mandoric
Mar 15, 2003

DancingShade posted:

I like the idea of a survival fort built in the image of a large Mayan pyramid.

Not stealthy but still wildfire proof.

Alternatively: an actual castle, with outer walls, battlements, everything.

Standing stone wall castles are only worthwhile in the Euro meta of wasteland rulers as the local bar fight champion backed up by whoever he can convince to carry a spear, go with a tulou or something you'll still be slaughtered mercilessly but they'll have to put honest work into it

Homeless Friend
Jul 16, 2007

19 o'clock posted:

getting murdered even after an easy $90k down payment on a mortgage that eats 40% of my monthly gross income




edit: non-paywall source https://archive.ph/Sbvpx

dont worry, be happy. you just have to murder the next guy

DancingShade
Jul 26, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

Mandoric posted:

Standing stone wall castles are only worthwhile in the Euro meta of wasteland rulers as the local bar fight champion backed up by whoever he can convince to carry a spear, go with a tulou or something you'll still be slaughtered mercilessly but they'll have to put honest work into it

I like both suggestions. The trick is to be part of the ruling warlord's warband and not the meat fed into the sausage machine post-battle for the last tank of gas needed to fuel the warboss's V8 charger covered in spikes.

Going solo isn't going to do anything but get you killed. Unless the idea is to hole up in a strong natural cave only you know and demolish the main entrance, then see how long your supplies last as you go mad in the dark.

Maybe clutching a fine italian briefcase full of stock certificates will help alleviate the madness as the stalactites drip in the distance. We may never know.

anime was right
Jun 27, 2008

death is certain
keep yr cool
in feudalism i would simply be an advisor slash wizard for a loser leige-lord

q_k
Dec 31, 2007





Xaris posted:

i cant remember if this was posted or not but big shocked pikachu face

https://www.automoblog.net/negative-equity-surge-auto-loans/

also i guess this explains carvana's insanely genius business model of paying +$10k more for a sight-unseen used car than it costed when bought new


Before pandemic craziness with car pricing, wouldn't most auto loans have trended negative equity because of how quickly vehicles used to depreciate? Or do people actually trade in for a new car every couple years and just accumulate dead cap space on an auto loan?

Canned Sunshine
Nov 20, 2005

CAUTION: POST QUALITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION



Xaris posted:

there's pretty much no to little historic precedent for a city being instantly shutoff. all those famed abandoned cities like Angkor, Mesa Verde, or Sumarian empire and stuff, being snuffed out in an instant doesn't happen. it's just slowly ratcheted downward one problem at a time until hundreds of years later, there's no one except a small handful of people living there. the closest you probably would find is something like serbian war and even then that was still slow and still receiving supplies.

there's an interesting paper on Angkor Wat in particular that came out recently: https://www.pnas.org/doi/epdf/10.1073/pnas.1821879116

that said, we're in very interesting times because of how absolutely dependent we are on modern mega-agriculture fueled by immense unholy amounts of fossil fuels to keep it going. there's no naturally fertile land anymore, very few places with natural consistent irrigation, there's almost no large animals and sea life to hunt anymore, and the amount of land (and labor) it takes to grow food without fossil fuels is loving massive. people hugely misunderestimate how much land is needed to grow enough food for even a family, let alone 100s of people. and, always one disaster away from starving.

but likewise it's not as if our grotesque addiction to oil will shutoff overnight either. instead it'll be ratcheted downward, unwillingly, one disaster at a time.

Then again: Pompeii. Check-loving-mate. :colbert:

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Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

q_k posted:

Before pandemic craziness with car pricing, wouldn't most auto loans have trended negative equity because of how quickly vehicles used to depreciate? Or do people actually trade in for a new car every couple years and just accumulate dead cap space on an auto loan?

not necessarily. the the "good ol' days" auto-loans were between 36-48-60 month, usually you were paying them off above or at depreciation. most of the time depreciation was significant in the first year or two and then tapered off returning to positive equity. usually stupid luxury blinged-out Sports XL Turbo with all bells & whistle trims would be underwater immediately because they're also dropping $$$$$ bucks for no/little used market value.

when the average auto financing is dragged out to 72-90 month loans, yes absolutely. but now depreciation isn't as bad but also people have been dropping $50k-90 on SUVs and trucks 90-month loans so, well, shits hosed

this is quite old now but gets the point across

Xaris has issued a correction as of 08:00 on Mar 20, 2023

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