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Baddog posted:He was pretty much on point tho, except the "red Chinese" bit, I could have done without that. I don't think we could really guarantee all deposits though. From a bank perspective we have previously defined the liabilities as a finite amount of 250k. Can banks just swap overnight from planning for covering those assets/reassuring people of FDIC to just "cover everything"? That's an unreasonably large difference in risk. One might have some kind of cap and the other represents the entire potential value of the entire us debt itself needing to be insured. I think the point is to make this be some sort of exception and the rest represents some additional bank fuckups? I don't think any country in the world can do that to be honest. notwithoutmyanus fucked around with this message at 05:49 on Mar 17, 2023 |
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Mar 17, 2023 05:43
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Yellen did poorly in that clip, but what was she really going to say? "No, we are not going to bailout your rural Oklahoma banks if they fail" might spur additional bank runs. "Yes, we are going to cover 100% of all deposits regardless of size at every bank" isnt much better - it sends the message to banks that they can take as much risk as regulations allow with little consequence (to depositors at least, equity holders likely wouldn't be so lucky).
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Mar 17, 2023 06:49
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there's also concern about a moral hazard in the air, what kind of risk taking would be encouraged if every deposit at every bank was protected. i know the euro banking regulatory bodies are all rolling their eyes because this contradicts previous fed talking points, yellen probably doesn't want to produce a soundbite that can be shown to directly contradict the policy she was espousing when she was on the fed board/chairwoman. leave some fig leaf of plausible deniability to keep banks on their toes and save faces on the abrupt turn around
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Mar 17, 2023 06:54
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drk posted:..., equity holders likely wouldn't be so lucky). That's what should be keeping them in check though, bankers are responsible for taking care of their shareholders. Janet encouraging people to flee small banks for big ones isn't helping either shareholders or depositors though.
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Mar 17, 2023 07:00
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Baddog posted:That's what should be keeping them in check though, bankers are responsible for taking care of their shareholders. I was listening to a podcast earlier today that discussed that point: quote:The theory is that in order for market regulation to work, private regulation [referring to equity holders] must work, and there has to be disclosure. A bank has to be transparent about the risks it's taking. A bank can't be transparent about the risks it's taking if it doesn't have processes to monitor and disclose those risks. The job for supervisors is to make sure banks are monitoring their risks and disclosing them to the shareholders so that the shareholders can discipline the banks.
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Mar 17, 2023 07:19
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drk posted:Yellen did poorly in that clip, but what was she really going to say? Matt Levine pointed out this same issue of moral hazard from guaranteeing all deposits: Assume you have $100 in deposits and $10 in capital, and then do a dumb risky thing by betting all your bank's money on a coin flip. If you win, you get $110 return on your $10 capital and depositors are safe. If you lose, you lose $10 of capital, and the government loses $100 making depositors whole. When all banks have zero credit risk, the incentive is to attract as many deposits as possible and do insanely risky and dumb poo poo. At the same time it's clear now that our current deposit insurance regime is insufficient. Lots of depositors keep more than $250,000 of cash around, especially businesses that need it just for the course of their business, startups with 1-2 years runway, or companies that basically run shadow FBO accounts like all those Fintech payroll providers banking at svb. It's not a good outcome for society as a whole to expect every small and medium business owner to do a deep dive into the riskiness of a bank's capital structure against local and global economic trends. It's not their skill set, they won't do it, and will instead just bank at a megabank that carries an implicit tbtf government bailout promise. It really is getting caught between a rock and a hard place for bank regulators. Long term, regulators and Congress need to reexamine how depositors interact with the banking system in 2023. We need a better system to divide ordinary people and businesses who just need banking services-- because banking services that work well are good for society-- and people we expect to do sophisticated counterparty risk when entering into a creditor relationship with a bank. Right now we use a system of "has more or less than $250,000" which in retrospect is clearly not a good one. Unfortunately I don't have a lot of confidence that our current Congress even has the ability to do this kind of important yet intellectually difficult legislation, much less the willpower. mrmcd fucked around with this message at 10:53 on Mar 17, 2023 |
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Mar 17, 2023 10:51
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Baddog posted:
That probably would have lead to that same rep or another from his party starting to scream about moral hazard. One of the many hosed up things about the current hyper-partisan situation in our politics is that it makes offering simple solutions like this really difficult because one side is going to advocate for this type of policy and inevitably the other is going to start screaming that its bad regardless of the actual facts. Then things go from bad to worse. All Yellen really can do is try to avoid big public statements in the political arena that will lead to that kind of partisan divide, then quietly go off and do the actual work needed to fix things while hoping Fox News doesnt decide fixating on her work is a good way to fill space on a slow news week. Which means the debt ceiling stuff is gonna get real bad whenever everyone remembers that it needs to be addressed too.
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Mar 17, 2023 14:14
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TD Ameritrade is converting my account to a Schwab one in May, but I want to buy Schwab CDs right now. Does anyone know if I open an account with them whether it will be merged into a single login when the TDA move happens? Or will I be stuck with 2 separate accounts
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Mar 17, 2023 16:54
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Syrinxx posted:TD Ameritrade is converting my account to a Schwab one in May, but I want to buy Schwab CDs right now. Does anyone know if I open an account with them whether it will be merged into a single login when the TDA move happens? Or will I be stuck with 2 separate accounts You should just have one user account which lets you access each type of fund/product/etc.. That sounds like it's worth a call to Schwab's customer service; you setting up an account now may even make that transition easier.
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Mar 17, 2023 17:18
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drk posted:Yellen did poorly in that clip, but what was she really going to say? The consequence is still there, it's just distributed onto their competitors. FDIC insurance costs to the banks will have to skyrocket, and so all banks will pay to insure depositors against the risks taken by the riskiest risk-taking banks. Any time you can foist your risks off on someone else, you do; if you can do it onto your competitors, that's even better. But if they all do it too, you'll also have to pay higher and higher insurance costs. Tragedy of the commons, except for bank insurance.
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Mar 17, 2023 17:37
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I just received an unprompted email from Robinhood saying all accounts are FDIC insured up to 1.5 mil because they use cash sweep. I wonder how bad the withdrawals from every institution that's not the big 4 banks or big 3 asset managers is right now.
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Mar 17, 2023 19:11
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Thanks for the kind words. Regarding Citigroup, just to be clear I don't think it's necessarily a bad stock or anything, just that looking at book value might not be a great way to value it, since one of the most common ways of actually realizing that book value (being acquired) is totally impossible.
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Mar 18, 2023 14:25
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Some bank stats: https://twitter.com/mikezaccardi/status/1637828420770885636 Citi and MTB equity looking strong based on adjustments for unrealized balance sheet losses.
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Mar 20, 2023 15:59
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Does the S&P 500 re-classification usually coincide with a bump or a drop?
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Mar 20, 2023 16:21
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Syrinxx posted:TD Ameritrade is converting my account to a Schwab one in May, but I want to buy Schwab CDs right now. Does anyone know if I open an account with them whether it will be merged into a single login when the TDA move happens? Or will I be stuck with 2 separate accounts If you open a Schwab account now you will have two accounts when the TDA conversion happens for you. They will both be under the same login. Once it's complete it should be easy to transfer assets from one to the other and close the extra account.
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Mar 20, 2023 16:44
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Red posted:Does the S&P 500 re-classification usually coincide with a bump or a drop? If you're talking about First Republic its down 40% in the past hour or so
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Mar 20, 2023 17:28
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Zero One posted:If you open a Schwab account now you will have two accounts when the TDA conversion happens for you. Thanks, I called and was told this as well. They just journal it over and close the second account. Now to buy some ladder CDs because I'm real fuckin sick of red numbers in my "fun" bux account
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Mar 20, 2023 17:35
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Zero One posted:If you open a Schwab account now you will have two accounts when the TDA conversion happens for you. Some Schwab accounts are impossible to close but you can hide them. I have a former employers 401k account with schwab they wont let me close it, so it has 0$ in it and it's hidden on my logins.
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Mar 20, 2023 18:12
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drk posted:If you're talking about First Republic its down 40% in the past hour or so No, about SPY/VOO/etc.
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Mar 20, 2023 20:02
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Gonna go put my six shares of FRC I bought @ $40 over in the "do not touch until 2030" folder along with my RSX, OGZPY, SBRCY long shot bets that didn't pan out and didn't stop out SOFI is down to $5.25 today, been cratering all day, if you're secretly following that stock; not sure where the bottom is for SOFI but I might try catching the knife again here at $4.65 pmchem posted:yup, since I've hated on it so much (since it was in the teens or twenties...) I'll go ahead and acknowledge that it looks like 4.24 will be its low. 
Hadlock fucked around with this message at 20:08 on Mar 20, 2023 |
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Mar 20, 2023 20:02
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Didn't you say the other day you were cutting your losses on SOFI?
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Mar 20, 2023 22:43
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FistEnergy posted:Didn't you say the other day you were cutting your losses on SOFI? Those were just the recent losses! There's plenty more left to realize!
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Mar 20, 2023 23:00
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notwithoutmyanus posted:Stock Market Losses Thread: There's plenty more losses left yet to realize! fyfy New thread title
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Mar 21, 2023 00:58
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Stock Market Losses: You won’t realize these losses until it’s gone.
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Mar 21, 2023 01:16
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Bought another 2600 shares of Mereo BioPharma Group (MREO) @.75 yesterday. Congrats to anyone who owns Provention Bio (PRVB) - nice jump with a $25/share buyout last week. Come on $GOON! New bit of wisdom from Charlie Munger here: https://twitter.com/PlankAndCo/status/1637474645602447360?s=20 I don't know who this guy is but it would be funny if Charlie Munger had an evil twin...
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Mar 21, 2023 13:23
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Cramer said the FRC bloodbath would continue so I bought this morning lol
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Mar 21, 2023 15:57
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https://twitter.com/TradingThomas3/status/1638170431587770368 NVDA has gone from $263.50 to sub-$255.
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Mar 21, 2023 16:48
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SKULL.GIF posted:https://twitter.com/TradingThomas3/status/1638170431587770368 Nvda is like the one green stock I have. Even Cramer gets it right sometimes
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Mar 21, 2023 21:53
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Ubiquitus posted:Nvda is like the one green stock I have. Even Cramer gets it right sometimes this is denial, sell sell sell, your darling's been cramered
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Mar 21, 2023 23:01
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GME soaring in AH after eking out $50M in Q4 profit. Meltdowners in shambles!
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Mar 21, 2023 23:41
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Tomorrow is rate hikes, so plenty of time to turn that around!
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Mar 22, 2023 02:23
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stock folks, we have a poll going on over in the book thread (poll only visible when reading SA in a browser, I think?). please drop by and vote while waiting for jpow today: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4025922
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Mar 22, 2023 13:13
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People should have been able to make good money over the last few months with a solid drop after every fed rate hike. Number goes up, up, up despite them clearly saying they’ll increase rates. Then rate hike comes and bam, huge drop with rebound the next day. Like clockwork
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Mar 23, 2023 13:41
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Cacafuego posted:People should have been able to make good money over the last few months with a solid drop after every fed rate hike. Number goes up, up, up despite them clearly saying they’ll increase rates. Then rate hike comes and bam, huge drop with rebound the next day. Like clockwork I've been assuming that the calculation is that these moves will stop increasing labor costs which will lead even better corporate $$$s. I'm not sure who is going to be buying all this stuff, but at least labor will get put in it's place! edit: the initial drop is the minority of people that think a recession is not good for the economy, maybe?
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Mar 23, 2023 19:37
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Got onto the SJIM train. Also, keep adding SONO and I can’t quite explain why… but has been doing well for me.
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Mar 24, 2023 04:52
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Red posted:I thought the same thing, but another dumb panic could just as easily trigger another run, and then Now to look at where SCHW is and take a big sip of coffee
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Mar 24, 2023 06:07
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Red posted:Now to look at where SCHW is and take a big sip of coffee For once I managed to sell at the top.
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Mar 24, 2023 13:48
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UK's Competition and Markets Authority "narrowed its scope of concerns" over the MSFT/ATVI deal this morning. ATVI stock up 5% to $84. Deal price is $95. The US's FTC does not approve the deal, but they could lose in court. Berkshire Hathaway owns almost of %7 of ATVI.
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Mar 24, 2023 16:02
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Today was a good day to bet on an ASPS bounce.
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Mar 28, 2023 01:32
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nnnotime posted:UK's Competition and Markets Authority "narrowed its scope of concerns" over the MSFT/ATVI deal this morning. ATVI stock up 5% to $84. Deal price is $95. The US's FTC does not approve the deal, but they could lose in court. The Biden Administration is pretty much anti-merger (and anti-oil, anti-business, anti-airplane steps, etc) so there is that risk. May want to also look at Take Two Interactive (TTWO) as it's possible Sony or Amazon might take a grab for them if the Activision buyout is a go. GTA6 coming out in '24... Looks like TikTok might be banned in the US finally. Absurd it's being banned for government devices due to security risks, but for everybody else they just look the other way. Canada will wait to see what the US does (as usual), but if it happens then they should be banning it as well. Will this be the chance for Vinco Ventures (BBIG) to rise again with their Lomotif app? Can a turd float? Folks, 100 shares of this fine (LOL) company can be yours for the low low price of only $34 dollars! Step right up and please, no rushing! There's plenty of shares to go around!
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Mar 28, 2023 07:18
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