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Ardennes posted:Granted, you could also argue that the war is in many ways a necessary one from a Russian perspective and therefore it is hard to fully separate from a "national struggle" even through it is primarily geopolitical. It perhaps isn't an optional war, and most Russians seem to be agree. And I don't disagree. For the Russian side it's a lot more complicated. There's a conflict between national interests and the ruling class bourgeoisie interests. Those contradictions are part of the reason why this war is going the way it does. But it also highlights the fact that bourgeoisie interests get a priority, despite it being a national struggle that's supposed to be bringing everyone together. Even some of the nationalists are still grousing that the ruling classes and the army, the people supposedly in charge all poo poo the bed again and it's up to the regular person to put the country on their back and carry it to victory. Geopolitically the government seems to be doing its job, but for some they're not doing enough on the home front. Edit: The other part is that the Russian bourgeoisie placed their bet on the Ukrainian bourgeoisie and it fell through spectacularly. That's also the reason why it can be said that Russia is losing the ideological and propaganda war when it comes to Ukrainian people. Lostconfused has issued a correction as of 16:11 on Mar 20, 2023 |
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Mar 20, 2023 16:03
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It's baffling to me, but I think you've identified the reason they didn't do what their doctrine called for, call up a half million reservists some time in the late summer of 2021, and drive one Tank and two Combined Armies down through the strategic depth, casualties be damned. That's how you fight a national struggle. A Special Military Operation seems to be really the result, even doctrinally, of the compromise you mention. If you remember, the Second Chechen War was designated something similar, and after the initial drive on Grozny a lot of the fighting was done by militias and paramilitaries, much like the militias and Wagner are used here.
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Mar 20, 2023 16:11
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Lostconfused posted:And I don't disagree. For the Russian side it's a lot more complicated. There's a conflict between national interests and the ruling class bourgeoisie interests. Those contradictions are part of the reason why this war is going the way it does. But it also highlights the fact that bourgeoisie interests get a priority, despite it being a national struggle that's supposed to be bringing everyone together. Even some of the nationalists are still grousing that the ruling classes and the army, the people supposedly in charge all poo poo the bed again and it's up to the regular person to put the country on their back and carry it to victory. Geopolitically the government seems to be doing its job, but for some they're not doing enough on the home front. I think it speaks to the nature of Russia as a hybrid state and the fact that the Russian government is very liberal economically speaking and the tensions it causes. Russia can't fully break from the 90s even if most people perhaps want to. I would say in the US, I think in all honesty, the gap would be even larger and with even looser reasoning. I think American nationalists would be on board initially because "America always wins USA USA USA" but if something goes wrong I think the split would emerge pretty rapidly. I also think the US is absolutely bluffing over Taiwan and wouldn't do crap about the PLAN beyond going after China with sanctions. They know the most powerful thing they have still an illusion of invulnerability and if that cracked it would be more dangerous than just losing some ships. Frosted Flake posted:It's baffling to me, but I think you've identified the reason they didn't do what their doctrine called for, call up a half million reservists some time in the late summer of 2021, and drive one Tank and two Combined Armies down through the strategic depth, casualties be damned. That's how you fight a national struggle. A Special Military Operation seems to be really the result, even doctrinally, of the compromise you mention. Well the compromise is just also at the heart of modern day Russia. You have the same instrumentation of the Soviet anthem with different lyrics, you have a liberal economy that is still heavily dominated by SOEs, and you have a military that is stuck between a conscript and professional force, there are plenty of contradictions to be had. Ultimately, I think while the Russian elite would like a more fully liberal state, I think they know how much legitimacy still exists from the Soviet period (and not just among pensioners) and that much of the mechanics and infrastructure of the Soviet period are necessary while they can't fully devote themselves to a "people's war," but have steadily crept a much larger conflict than they hoped. It is also why their strategy at the moment is so slow and incremental with such heavy use of artillery, they don't want the consequences of a more aggressive strategy. To be fair, I think it has dividends and it is hard not to look at the math as far as shells versus casualties and not see that the Ukrainians haven't been taking the worst of it, but this thing has dragged on and obviously plenty of nationalists are pissed about it. Either way, the question really comes a month - 6 weeks from now if the Russians don't get more aggressive assuming they finish up in Bakhmut. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 16:28 on Mar 20, 2023 |
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Mar 20, 2023 16:15
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indigi posted:ehh don’t be like that!
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Mar 20, 2023 16:48
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lol Russia threatening to blow up The Hague https://www.yahoo.com/news/medvedev-threatens-strike-court-hague-072552936.html
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Mar 20, 2023 17:50
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Basic Poster posted:lol Russia threatening to blow up The Hague It's Medvedev. He's not going to post himself into the presidency, but he's giving it all he has.
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Mar 20, 2023 18:12
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Frosted Flake posted:I think nationalism can be a perfectly good start as an organizing principle to build socialism around Is this a bit
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Mar 20, 2023 18:47
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The Oldest Man posted:Is this a bit FF is a troop, so no.
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Mar 20, 2023 18:53
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Basic Poster posted:lol Russia threatening to blow up The Hague lets make it happen
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Mar 20, 2023 19:08
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Basic Poster posted:lol Russia threatening to blow up The Hague (4) During testimony before the Congress following the adoption of the Rome Statute, the lead United States negotiator, Ambassador David Scheffer stated that the United States could not sign the Rome Statute because certain critical negotiating objectives of the United States had not been achieved. As a result, he stated: ``We are left with consequences that do not serve the cause of international justice.''. (5) Ambassador Scheffer went on to tell the Congress that: ``Multinational peacekeeping forces operating in a country that has joined the treaty can be exposed to the Court's jurisdiction even if the country of the individual peacekeeper has not joined the treaty. Thus, the treaty purports to establish an arrangement whereby United States armed forces operating overseas could be conceivably prosecuted by the international court even if the United States has not agreed to be bound by the treaty. Not only is this contrary to the most fundamental principles of treaty law, it could inhibit the ability of the United States to use its military to meet alliance obligations and participate in multinational operations, including humanitarian interventions to save civilian lives. Other contributors to peacekeeping operations will be similarly exposed.''. … (8) Members of the Armed Forces of the United States should be free from the risk of prosecution by the International Criminal Court, especially when they are stationed or deployed around the world to protect the vital national interests of the United States. The United States Government has an obligation to protect the members of its Armed Forces, to the maximum extent possible, against criminal prosecutions carried out by the International Criminal Court. (9) In addition to exposing members of the Armed Forces of the United States to the risk of international criminal prosecution, the Rome Statute creates a risk that the President and other senior elected and appointed officials of the United States Government may be prosecuted by the International Criminal Court. Particularly if the Preparatory Commission agrees on a definition of the Crime of Aggression over United States objections, senior United States officials may be at risk of criminal prosecution for national security decisions involving such matters as responding to acts of terrorism, preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and deterring aggression. No less than members of the Armed Forces of the United States, senior officials of the United States Government should be free from the risk of prosecution by the International Criminal Court, especially with respect to official actions taken by them to protect the national interests of the United States. (10) Any agreement within the Preparatory Commission on a definition of the Crime of Aggression that usurps the prerogative of the United Nations Security Council under Article 39 of the charter of the United Nations to ``determine the existence of any . . . . act of aggression'' would contravene the charter of the United Nations and undermine deterrence. (11) It is a fundamental principle of international law that a treaty is binding upon its parties only and that it does not create obligations for nonparties without their consent to be bound. The United States is not a party to the Rome Statute and will not be bound by any of its terms. The United States will not recognize the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court over United States nationals. … SEC. 2015. <<NOTE: 22 USC 7433.>> ASSISTANCE TO INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS. Nothing in this title shall prohibit the United States from rendering assistance to international efforts to bring to justice Saddam Hussein, Slobodan Milosovic, Osama bin Laden, other members of Al Queda 🇪🇸, leaders of Islamic Jihad, and other foreign nationals accused of genocide, war crimes or crimes against humanity.
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Mar 20, 2023 19:11
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the worst part is the hypocrisy!! US bars entry to International Criminal Court investigators | AP News apnews.com posted:The United States will revoke or deny visas to International Criminal Court personnel seeking to investigate alleged war crimes and other abuses committed by U.S. forces in Afghanistan or elsewhere, and may do the same with those who seek action against Israel, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Friday.
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Mar 20, 2023 19:17
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mawarannahr posted:(4) During testimony before the Congress following the adoption of the Rome Statute, the lead United States negotiator, Ambassador David Scheffer stated that the United States could not sign the Rome Statute because certain critical negotiating objectives of the United States had not been achieved. As a result, he stated: ``We are left with consequences that do not serve the cause of international justice.''. I agree. the US should also lob missiles at the hague
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Mar 20, 2023 19:18
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the netherlands will lose ww3
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Mar 20, 2023 19:18
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lol of course https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Service-Members%27_Protection_Act
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Mar 20, 2023 19:25
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lobster shirt posted:the netherlands will lose ww3 Good they'll be 2 for 2
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Mar 20, 2023 19:29
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Basic Poster posted:lol of course D gently caress YEA
R hell NAY
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Mar 20, 2023 19:46
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Most previously failing empires were at least smart enough to bribe their militaries to not go against the status quo.
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Mar 20, 2023 19:51
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cat botherer posted:Most previously failing empires were at least smart enough to bribe their militaries to not go against the status quo. The efficiency of capitalism makes it possible to reach hitherto impossible heights of stupidity
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Mar 20, 2023 21:19
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mawarannahr posted:D gently caress YEA surprised at the Santorum and slightly surprised at the McCain votes
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Mar 20, 2023 23:04
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Good news guys, a war with China will last 3 weeks and end with 30,000 Chinese prisoners stuck on Taiwan and all of China’s naval and air forces destroyed! https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/investigations/china-us-war-simulation-csis-wargame/65-37844d34-ab1f-49a2-ad2e-09a7c8ff94c4
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Mar 20, 2023 23:20
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Comrade Merf posted:Good news guys, a war with China will last 3 weeks and end with 30,000 Chinese prisoners stuck on Taiwan and all of China’s naval and air forces destroyed! well do it then? if you can kneecap China now why wait?
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Mar 20, 2023 23:27
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Comrade Merf posted:Good news guys, a war with China will last 3 weeks and end with 30,000 Chinese prisoners stuck on Taiwan and all of China’s naval and air forces destroyed! I'm pretty sure this is the same one where they think they can put submarines in the Taiwan strait and that the main thing to worry about is having enough bases to resupply said submarines as if it won't be one-way trips for the crews.
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Mar 20, 2023 23:40
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Comrade Merf posted:Good news guys, a war with China will last 3 weeks and end with 30,000 Chinese prisoners stuck on Taiwan and all of China’s naval and air forces destroyed! All these "America can still defend Taiwan" scenarios hinge on the Taiwanese military being an elite fighting force that will battle to the death defending Freedom until America arrives. Meanwhile, the actual Taiwanese military is busy playing Stardew Valley: https://twitter.com/PaulHuangReport/status/1635584779369472001
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Mar 20, 2023 23:41
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WUSA9 posted:American submarines and jets lead the counterattack taking out the majority of Chinese troop transports. Some get through, and Chinese forces land on the southern half of Taiwan but face resistance from the Taiwanese Army. cited CSIS report posted:Prioritize submarines and other undersea platforms. It's the same report lol. One of the major assumption of this wargame is having submarines inside the strait not dying lmao.
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Mar 20, 2023 23:56
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Comrade Merf posted:Good news guys, a war with China will last 3 weeks and end with 30,000 Chinese prisoners stuck on Taiwan and all of China’s naval and air forces destroyed! the absurd part of this is they spend multiple paragraphs at the end warning China that the CCP could be overthrown in this scenario
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Mar 21, 2023 00:04
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shiny Drowzee: very very good shiny Hypno: ...no thank you
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Mar 21, 2023 00:05
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Danann posted:I'm pretty sure this is the same one where they think they can put submarines in the Taiwan strait and that the main thing to worry about is having enough bases to resupply said submarines as if it won't be one-way trips for the crews. It’s crazy the article starts out with all our ships and bases in the pacific being wiped out Day One in a massive first strike with tens of thousands of dead US personnel and then just jumps to us destroying all of China’s force projection capabilities stranding 40,000 PLA soldiers on Taiwan who just surrender for ??? Where did the second Pacific Fleet come from lol. How would China run out of aircraft and ships capable of ferrying troops and supplies to troops in Taiwan after establishing complete dominance of the space around Taiwan? It’s been wild in the past year since the Ukrainian conflict how everyone I know went from mostly ambivalent on China to excitedly talking about how much they are looking forward to freeing mainland Chynah from the Red Menace now that Russia has been dealt with and how quick and easy that would be. Another thing being US armed forces guys both past and current are more confident in the venture than the civilians!
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Mar 21, 2023 00:09
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Danann posted:It's the same report lol. One of the major assumption of this wargame is having submarines inside the strait not dying lmao. Lol all the us subs have an effective 11 m cross section diameter and they'd be operating in as little as 50 m of crystal clear water. They would probably be able to see the subs from the surface!!!
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Mar 21, 2023 00:14
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What are they going to do, missile strike the water? Don't think so tankie
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Mar 21, 2023 00:19
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You could blow up a $2.8B sub for 20 kg of c4, a waterproof box, a cellphone, and a hunk of scrap metal lol
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Mar 21, 2023 00:24
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Comrade Merf posted:It’s been wild in the past year since the Ukrainian conflict how everyone I know went from mostly ambivalent on China to excitedly talking about how much they are looking forward to freeing mainland Chynah from the Red Menace now that Russia has been dealt with and how quick and easy that would be. Another thing being US armed forces guys both past and current are more confident in the venture than the civilians! not like it's in beijing's interest to start a war over taiwan. but you also have to *want* it. this is something frosted flake talks about and he's right about this. like you need capability to do it and they are building the material capability, but you also need to feel it in the heart. americans think like mechanical materialists which thinks that you can just buy everyone off and call it a day. also when you see china's ability to mobilize construction groups to construct huge hospital complexes during COVID, that same ability translates in other areas if we're talking about moving hundreds of thousands of soldiers across the strait. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jrjj2YxG6VE&t=6513s 
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Mar 21, 2023 00:42
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Comrade Merf posted:It’s been wild in the past year since the Ukrainian conflict how everyone I know went from mostly ambivalent on China to excitedly talking about how much they are looking forward to freeing mainland Chynah from the Red Menace now that Russia has been dealt with and how quick and easy that would be. Another thing being US armed forces guys both past and current are more confident in the venture than the civilians! Who do you talk to? I’ve never met a single person who thinks fighting China would be easy or a good “goal” to have, even less so among the military. The closest I’ve heard is the same “their economy must be some kind of sham” rhetoric that’s been going since I was a kid. E: correction, I remember one exceptionally dumb guy IRL who said China would be easy, but he also thinks the US won the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
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Mar 21, 2023 00:46
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mlmp08 posted:Who do you talk to? I’ve never met a single person who thinks fighting China would be easy or a good “goal” to have, even less so among the military. The closest I’ve heard is the same “their economy must be some kind of sham” rhetoric that’s been going since I was a kid. I don't know about 'easy' but I know a few army guys who think it's something we have to do for inarticulable reasons.
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Mar 21, 2023 00:50
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The Taiwan strait was considered suicidal for WW2 Fleet Boats operating against the famously bad at ASW IJN, so I don’t know how to explain how they got to here.
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Mar 21, 2023 00:55
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Frosted Flake posted:The Taiwan strait was considered suicidal for WW2 Fleet Boats operating against the famously bad at ASW IJN, so I don’t know how to explain how they got to here. They had to make up something on a deadline.
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Mar 21, 2023 01:00
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Danann posted:It's the same report lol. One of the major assumption of this wargame is having submarines inside the strait not dying lmao. Looked at the report, and they state pretty clearly that US SSNs would be lost, both inside the strait and out. Most wargames project that whoever the winner might be, there would be a really brutal amount of ships sunk in a Taiwan straight scenario (both in and out of the strait itself) where both the US and China committed to combat. Their wargame may be bullshit, but it certainly never made the assumption that US SSNs wouldn't die in the strait. mlmp08 has issued a correction as of 01:07 on Mar 21, 2023 |
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Mar 21, 2023 01:05
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mlmp08 posted:Who do you talk to? I’ve never met a single person who thinks fighting China would be easy or a good “goal” to have, even less so among the military. The closest I’ve heard is the same “their economy must be some kind of sham” rhetoric that’s been going since I was a kid. I live in Jacksonville Florida currently which has lots of retired and currently active marine and navy personnel due to the Naval Air Station , been keeping up to date with my buddies in the army as well, and have lots of civilian and retired USA armed forces friends and acquaintances from all over the American political spectrum. Despite rather severe political disagreements insofar as domestic policy is concerned everyone seems pretty united on neutralizing China, only disagreeing on if we should hit them first or wait for them to invade Taiwan. I suppose this all could stem from being from Florida and still living here but we are still getting tons of people moving here from all over. I’ll give them all credit since not even the most deranged crank I know thinks we should send ground forces into mainland China. The “easy” assumption seems to stem from the belief that our ships, planes, and cruise missiles are still so superior to anything the Chinese can produce we just have to sit off the Chinese coast and hit targets at our leisure until either China devolves into civil war or the oppressed masses rise up and install a democratic government modeled after us.
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Mar 21, 2023 01:08
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I’m around a lot of military and government, and the goal is always “just convince China that militarily invading Taiwan isn’t worth it, because it would suck too much for everyone involved.”
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Mar 21, 2023 01:14
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Pidgin Englishman posted:I think. Might be my own biases. quite close and I’m going to be coming from a bit of a different way of thinking, a religious socialism but these ideas are still early Tillich which he’s way more Marxist than Christian at the beginning. I’d dig out my Socialist Decision for the relevant sections but I can’t seem to find it.
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Mar 21, 2023 01:25
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I wanna see a Millennium Challenge 2002 but for China
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Mar 21, 2023 02:09
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