[Doomsday Economics] your economic system is a piece of shit

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Doomsday Economics] your economic system is a piece of shit

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(Thread IKs: skooma512)

euphronius: Feb 18, 2009

.25 is so boring

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:05

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# ? Jun 7, 2024 16:58

webcams for christ: Nov 2, 2005

great MoM Fed balance sheet visualization

euphronius posted:

.25 is so boring

agreed

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:05

Spoondick: Jun 9, 2000

Barrel Cactaur posted:

Interesting way to write Chinese economy dies as it no longer trades finished goods for raw materials, food, and medicine. Please recall Russia is currently being fought off with essentially spares. Russian stability has been based on a carefully structured prison house of nations being run by the biggest gang. China has based it on economic prosperity. Crashing Russias raw materials export market was never going to stop them, because someone will always take the deal. But China is much more vulnerable. Military needs just can't take up the slack, or provide the food in short order. Their poor agricultural disease control makes this extra fragile.

Additionally they don't have uncontested control of the SCS like the US has uncontested control of the East Pacific and Atlantic seaboard. The US can rebuild it's conventional navy far out of reach, while China can't prevent attacks from being staged from the whole region, a region it has not made an effort to be a good neighbor in.

The US can commit enough navel and air power to permanently eliminate Chinas navy, take 100% losses, and move enough assets from current active duty to do it twice more. In a more realistic scenario, it's enough to keep the Chinese navy bottled in port and fight it as an air war where both sides lob missiles at each other's planes from standoff range until we figure out how to resolve a nuclear power conflict with no nukes.

all fine and good i guess if your society doesn't need medicines, industrial machinery and parts, rare earth minerals, etc and you're assuming 2 nuclear powers would engage in conventional warfare without either side getting desperate enough to start waving icbms around

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:09

Oglethorpe: Aug 8, 2005; Avatar blanked by Admin request.

hah

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:09

Barrel Cactaur: Oct 6, 2021

Spoondick posted:

all fine and good i guess if your society doesn't need medicines, industrial machinery and parts, rare earth minerals, etc and you're assuming 2 nuclear powers would engage in conventional warfare without either side getting desperate enough to start waving icbms around

Almost exactly the point. The deterrence is credible enough that no one moves.

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:20

Casey Finnigan: Apr 30, 2009; Dumb ✔
So goddamn crazy ✔

Barrel Cactaur posted:

Interesting way to write Chinese economy dies as it no longer trades finished goods for raw materials, food, and medicine. Please recall Russia is currently being fought off with essentially spares. Russian stability has been based on a carefully structured prison house of nations being run by the biggest gang. China has based it on economic prosperity. Crashing Russias raw materials export market was never going to stop them, because someone will always take the deal. But China is much more vulnerable. Military needs just can't take up the slack, or provide the food in short order. Their poor agricultural disease control makes this extra fragile.

Additionally they don't have uncontested control of the SCS like the US has uncontested control of the East Pacific and Atlantic seaboard. The US can rebuild it's conventional navy far out of reach, while China can't prevent attacks from being staged from the whole region, a region it has not made an effort to be a good neighbor in.

The US can commit enough navel and air power to permanently eliminate Chinas navy, take 100% losses, and move enough assets from current active duty to do it twice more. In a more realistic scenario, it's enough to keep the Chinese navy bottled in port and fight it as an air war where both sides lob missiles at each other's planes from standoff range until we figure out how to resolve a nuclear power conflict with no nukes.

hell yeah dude oorah to ashes

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:21

Relevant Tangent: Nov 18, 2016; Tangentially Relevant

Jaxyon posted:

so basically even though it literally says in the bond terms that this was a possibility they're hoping they have enough white shoe lawyers to make a country back down?

yeah, that's how international business works

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:22

Palladium: May 8, 2012; Very Good
✔️✔️✔️✔️

Spoondick posted:

all fine and good i guess if your society doesn't need medicines, industrial machinery and parts, rare earth minerals, etc and you're assuming 2 nuclear powers would engage in conventional warfare without either side getting desperate enough to start waving icbms around

also our new Goebbels forgot how his team got clowned at iran 2019

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:23

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

There's going to be like 3 banks left at the end of this.

https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1638623327953494022

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:29

Pf. Hikikomoriarty: Feb 15, 2003; RO YNSHO; Slippery Tilde

lol banks get free money everyone else gets to eat poo poo

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:30

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

You probably shouldn't be saying this kinda stuff if you want to avoid bank runs! Just saying!

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1638624081187840000

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:31

Iron Crowned: May 6, 2003; by Hand Knit

Pf. Hikikomoriarty posted:

lol banks get free money everyone else gets to eat poo poo

How do I become a bank? I've got like $20 of loose change in a piggy bank at home

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:32

Oglethorpe: Aug 8, 2005; Avatar blanked by Admin request.

volume on the SPY went nuts at 2pm

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:33

Jaxyon: Mar 7, 2016; I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

old person bewildered by the speed of modern events

also one of the most powerful people in the world

cool

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:33

Raskolnikov38: Mar 3, 2007; We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

Spaced God posted:

Someone smarter than me tell me what this means

jpow blinked and is turning on the money hoses full blast by end of year

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:34

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

Oglethorpe posted:

volume on the SPY went nuts at 2pm

2PM is when the rate hike was announced. Whole market was waiting all week for this.

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:35

Vox Nihili: May 28, 2008

"The troubled First Republic Bank, which is searching for a buyer, has been offering highly competitive specials on short-term C.D.s: It has a seven-month C.D. with a rate of 4.95 percent and a four-month C.D. carrying a rate of 4.75 percent."

Big opportunity!!!

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:36

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

FRC is down -12%. PACW -14%

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:38

Bastard Tetris: Apr 27, 2005; L-Shaped; Nap Ghost

SKULL.GIF posted:

FRC is down -12%. PACW -14%

lol I�m closing an account at PACW this afternoon

I�m helping!!!!

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:39

Pepe Silvia Browne: Jan 1, 2007

buy the crash

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:40

Nix Panicus: Feb 25, 2007

Barrel Cactaur posted:

Interesting way to write Chinese economy dies as it no longer trades finished goods for raw materials, food, and medicine. Please recall Russia is currently being fought off with essentially spares. Russian stability has been based on a carefully structured prison house of nations being run by the biggest gang. China has based it on economic prosperity. Crashing Russias raw materials export market was never going to stop them, because someone will always take the deal. But China is much more vulnerable. Military needs just can't take up the slack, or provide the food in short order. Their poor agricultural disease control makes this extra fragile.

Additionally they don't have uncontested control of the SCS like the US has uncontested control of the East Pacific and Atlantic seaboard. The US can rebuild it's conventional navy far out of reach, while China can't prevent attacks from being staged from the whole region, a region it has not made an effort to be a good neighbor in.

The US can commit enough navel and air power to permanently eliminate Chinas navy, take 100% losses, and move enough assets from current active duty to do it twice more. In a more realistic scenario, it's enough to keep the Chinese navy bottled in port and fight it as an air war where both sides lob missiles at each other's planes from standoff range until we figure out how to resolve a nuclear power conflict with no nukes.

lmao the US would take 5 years to replace a single ship. The US is incapable of switching to the command economy necessary to fight a real war against anyone even remotely capable of fighting back

Also the US would basically break down within a few months without the constant supply of goods from China.

E: Also the Chinese arent belligerent blood thirsty monsters like the US. China isnt going to launch a war, but the US is easily the most evil nation on earth and might do it out of spite if things keep getting worse at home

Nix Panicus has issued a correction as of 20:48 on Mar 22, 2023

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:42

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

FRC -15%

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:44

skooma512: Feb 8, 2012; You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.

SKULL.GIF posted:

There's going to be like 3 banks left at the end of this.

https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1638623327953494022

Yeah, that�s the main goal of Constitutional Oligarchy with Market Characteristics. Only the biggest will survive because only the biggest are supported.

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:45

spacemang_spliff: Nov 29, 2014; wide pickle

i was promised blood

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:46

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

spacemang_spliff posted:

i was promised blood

The market reversed a +2% day and is currently -0.85% because of Yellen spooking everyone

FRC and PACW are both -16% and seem like candidates to go bust this week/later this weekend.

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:48

Thoguh: Nov 8, 2002; College Slice

Vox Nihili posted:

They say credit conditions are tightening but I still keep getting mailers from banks begging me to borrow enormous sums of money from them for no reason

Same. Chase keeps sending me emails begging me to take out a mortgage that's like 5x my annual gross income, telling me I'm pre-approved even though I never asked and they're just waiting to write me a check.

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:50

Jaxyon: Mar 7, 2016; I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Guessing CDs aren't insured by the FDIC

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:52

coelomate: Oct 21, 2020

Jaxyon posted:

Guessing CDs aren't insured by the FDIC

They are

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:52

Jaxyon: Mar 7, 2016; I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

coelomate posted:

They are

oh, well then

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:54

Shear Modulus: Jun 9, 2010

In Training posted:

I wonder if there are there any US industrial capitalists around with any sway left who will get pissed about this.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1637971685751025666?s=20

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1638614961038712833?s=20

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:54

The Atomic Man-Boy: Jul 23, 2007

funds are stored in the balls

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:55

Fitzy Fitz: May 14, 2005

Nix Panicus posted:

lmao the US would take 5 years to replace a single ship. The US is incapable of switching to the command economy necessary to fight a real war against anyone even remotely capable of fighting back

Also the US would basically break down within a few months without the constant supply of goods from China.

E: Also the Chinese arent belligerent blood thirsty monsters like the US. China isnt going to launch a war, but the US is easily the most evil nation on earth and might do it out of spite if things keep getting worse at home

remember when we needed to source a bunch of simple cloth masks and couldn't do it

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:55

coelomate: Oct 21, 2020

I feel like the fed is gonna stand ready to do 0.25% increases until inflation goes away, but will constantly revise expectations to imply maybe this was the last one. Kind of a cowards way to inch towards the level rates might actually need to be to reduce inflation (without, idk, taxing the rich or fixing supply chains or labor shortages or some other radical and implausible approach)

# ? Mar 22, 2023 20:55