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Arrath
Apr 14, 2011


BrutalistMcDonalds posted:

Okay then don't discuss it. Cya.

Well since you don't even find the article that you linked worth discussing...peace out bruv.

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Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Just Another Lurker posted:

That's Azov from the Mariupol defence taking out a T72 with side shots to the ammo carousel, the original footage had a green tint to it, no idea why i remember that.

maybe you were thinking of another one? I recall there was one that was shooting up a tank or bmp head on and then aimed at the undergap since it looked like someone was taking cover behind

orange juche
Mar 14, 2012



pantslesswithwolves posted:

While I can’t speak to the veracity of this article, I will say that Jack Murphy is a much better journalist than Hersh is. He’s former SF/Ranger and still has a lot of ties to the SOF community. He’s definitely not a Gray Zone type; far from it.

I'm familiar with Jack Murphy, and yeah he's not a gray zone dude, there may even be kernels of truth in the article, but Hekk's call was right, driveby link dropping without engaging is kinda garbo. Doing that in D&D would get you probated.

M_Gargantua
Oct 16, 2006

STOMP'N ON INTO THE POWERLINES

Exciting Lemon

Alan Smithee posted:

maybe you were thinking of another one? I recall there was one that was shooting up a tank or bmp head on and then aimed at the undergap since it looked like someone was taking cover behind

I recall that one too.

CainFortea
Oct 15, 2004


Also anyone who's SF with ties to the SOF community is a very questionable source to start with.

M_Gargantua
Oct 16, 2006

STOMP'N ON INTO THE POWERLINES

Exciting Lemon

pantslesswithwolves posted:

While I can’t speak to the veracity of this article, I will say that Jack Murphy is a much better journalist than Hersh is. He’s former SF/Ranger and still has a lot of ties to the SOF community. He’s definitely not a Gray Zone type; far from it.

He may not be a crackpot but that article is so thinly sourced it may as well be fan fiction. He makes some huge jumps of logic from "2014 training of Ukrainians" to "The CIA is running a partisan campaign in Russia"

CainFortea posted:

Also anyone who's SF with ties to the SOF community is a very questionable source to start with.

If he's not workshoping a book and fishing for publishers is he really SOF?

kill me now
Sep 14, 2003

Why's Hank crying?

'CUZ HE JUST GOT DUNKED ON!

psydude posted:

It seems really unlikely the US or a NATO ally would partake in direct sabotage actions in a scenario like this where Russia is looking for an excuse to go to war with NATO. I could absolutely see them providing material and intelligence support to the Ukrainian SBU, though.

I really don't think Russia is looking for an excuse to go to war with NATO. They may say that publicly but there is no way that they want to actually pull a US lead NATO into this conflict.

bulletsponge13
Apr 28, 2010

BrutalistMcDonalds posted:

There's no way the Russians will ever say this is what's going on. "There are saboteurs running amok and we can't stop them?" Gimme a break. These are all "accidents" in Russia.

Okay then don't discuss it. Cya.

Genuinely asking- what makes you think it's this NATO black op, as opposed to possible internal sabotage, local national covert assets working on behalf of NATO/US/West, or the even odds GRU/FSB shenanigans? The article you shared is what we used to call RUMINT- rumored intelligence- in other words, gossip. It is just one dude saying that someone told him something.

To me, it seems most likely someone already internal- either internal resistance/sabotage, or locals working on behalf of someone else. But Russia has a history of False Flag government operations to bolster public support/blame in various conflict efforts, like blowing up civilians and blaming Chechnya.

Lake of Methane
Oct 29, 2011

Power Khan posted:







Well, I'm sure they're totally fine on the inside

This is a bone yard outside the Malyshev factory in Kharkiv (nee Kharkiv Locomotive Factory (KhPZ))

Here's a video from 2018.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OG7bg2EUrM8

OctaMurk
Jun 21, 2013

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Next you'll be citing Sy Hersh. What do you get out of these weird Russia-laundering drivebys?

jack murphy isnt some putin lapdog lmao

M_Gargantua
Oct 16, 2006

STOMP'N ON INTO THE POWERLINES

Exciting Lemon

OctaMurk posted:

jack murphy isnt some putin lapdog lmao

You don't have to be pro-putin to sound like a gossiping idiot.

orange juche
Mar 14, 2012



OctaMurk posted:

jack murphy isnt some putin lapdog lmao

He isn't, but the article has as sourcing "just trust me bro" basically. It's unverifiable, and the reader is asked to just trust the author is not filling their head with poo poo. It's RUMINT, and RUMINT isn't something you can trust uncritically.

I'd love for there to be a vast CIA conspiracy to sabotage the Russian military industrial complex, but that would depend on the CIA being competent, which they've shown over and over that they're not.

orange juche fucked around with this message at 23:48 on Mar 23, 2023

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






The thing that bugs me the most about the pro-russia crowd is denying Ukrainians and Russian opposition any agency at all.

Things happening inside Russia? Surely must be CIA, no way the meek Russians could come up with anything like that themselves!

M_Gargantua
Oct 16, 2006

STOMP'N ON INTO THE POWERLINES

Exciting Lemon
I have full faith that the ukrainian armed forces and population have plenty of people willing to hike into Russia and blend in with a backpack full of disassembled anti-tank mines.

They may even have CIA provided intelligence of "Kalibur missiles are made in this factory and shipped on this rail line" which is pretty low level intelligence thats just slightly above OSINT.

That doesn't make them CIA sleeper cells.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

spankmeister posted:

The thing that bugs me the most about the pro-russia crowd is denying Ukrainians and Russian opposition any agency at all.

Things happening inside Russia? Surely must be CIA, no way the meek Russians could come up with anything like that themselves!

Ukrainians permitted agency by the Russian invasion defenders:

Ukrainians in Crimea who favor siding with Russia and consider themselves Russian and/or independent.

The worst nazi dude you can find in Ukraine.

Everyone else is forced to fight against their will by an Age of Empires monk wielding Dark Brandon powers.

GD_American
Jul 21, 2004

LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY AS IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT!

M_Gargantua posted:

If he's not workshoping a book and fishing for publishers is he really SOF?

Well he's got the insufferability nailed

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



Nice pit vipers on that dude.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

psydude posted:

As much as I'd like to think it's this, I'm still convinced this is just par for the course in Russian building codes and industrial safety.

Yeah if you track chemical plant/major factory fires in any country that stuff is constantly on fire (when viewed at a national scale), even in countries with far less corruption and far better safety standards than Russia. I'm wholly unconvinced that most of these that people are posting on twitter are anything other than routine.

When it's stuff directly related to missile production or other particularly relevant parts of the arms industry I do wonder because that stuff certainly would be a priority, but there's really just no way to know. Still, given the scale of the Russian arms industry, there's always going to be something happening organically.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".
Move to a three shift schedule, draft anyone not absolutely necessary, force people to work, probably limit maintenance to hit schedule/production,

Heh everyone in here is just too dum to see the CIA strings being pulled, just a buncha losers. Cya!

ded
Oct 27, 2005

Kooler than Jesus
if the cia was as good as movies make them out to be :lol:

Cannon_Fodder
Jul 17, 2007

"Hey, where did Steve go?"
Design by Kamoc

ded posted:

if the cia was as good as movies make them out to be :lol:

Well, you see CIA intelligence :imunfunny:

Flikken
Oct 23, 2009

10,363 snaps and not a playoff win to show for it
Burn after Reading

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





Flikken posted:

Burn after Reading

one of the greatest films of our time

GD_American
Jul 21, 2004

LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY AS IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT!
probably the most unsung Coen Brothers movie. Neck and neck with Intolerable Cruelty.

quote:

CIA Supervisor:
Jesus loving Christ. What did we learn, Palmer?

Palmer:
I don't know sir.

CIA Supervisor:
I don't loving know either. I guess we learned not to do it again. I'm hosed if I know what we did.

Palmer:
Yes sir, it's hard to say.

orange juche
Mar 14, 2012



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPhycuLAtaw&t=2392s

Couple days old but Perun made a good note of the "forced to attack entrenched troops with shovels" thing that was stated to be sourced from the UK MOD. Turns out the original product stated that Russian infantry was forced to advance with firearms and shovels, and news media took the "and shovels" and ran with it, ignoring the fact that the infantry troops also had their standard firearms.

Always check your sources, if it seems sensational, look for sourcing, and if possible, read the original source information.

Quackles
Aug 11, 2018

Pixels of Light.


Cool Kids Club Soda posted:

If my martial art relied on guys agreeing to let me throw them to hone my technique instead of actually throwing a punch and figuring out how to react to that, I would emphasize not actually getting in a fight too

I'm pretty sure it's supposed to be to use the attacker's momentum against them.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

OctaMurk posted:

jack murphy isnt some putin lapdog lmao

No but his article is "cited" in the same way as Sy's stupid pipeline piece. Unnamed sources described in a vague yet enticingly mysterious way. Also the closing paragraph is totally bonkers "I tried to publish this in the mainstream media but the evil CIA told them blah blah blah". It's the same Government Conspiracy Suppressing the Truth style as a fraudulent POW memoir about a super-secret Japanese prison camp run by a traitorous British officer whose name appears nowhere in British Army records that I'm researching.

Taerkar
Dec 7, 2002

kind of into it, really

orange juche posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPhycuLAtaw&t=2392s

Couple days old but Perun made a good note of the "forced to attack entrenched troops with shovels" thing that was stated to be sourced from the UK MOD. Turns out the original product stated that Russian infantry was forced to advance with firearms and shovels, and news media took the "and shovels" and ran with it, ignoring the fact that the infantry troops also had their standard firearms.

Always check your sources, if it seems sensational, look for sourcing, and if possible, read the original source information.

If there's anything that past conflicts have shown about shovels it's that they're great close combat weapons. Unless you do something silly like put a hole in it to use as an ineffectual gunshield for a rifle

Hyperlynx
Sep 13, 2015

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

No but his article is "cited" in the same way as Sy's stupid pipeline piece. Unnamed sources described in a vague yet enticingly mysterious way. Also the closing paragraph is totally bonkers "I tried to publish this in the mainstream media but the evil CIA told them blah blah blah". It's the same Government Conspiracy Suppressing the Truth style as a fraudulent POW memoir about a super-secret Japanese prison camp run by a traitorous British officer whose name appears nowhere in British Army records that I'm researching.

Yeah, I'm having trouble seeing how anyone could find the article credible. I'm not just going to believe that guy just because he's pro Ukraine!

Gervasius
Nov 2, 2010



Grimey Drawer

spankmeister posted:

This is some grey zone level poo poo lol

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
lol @ that murphy piece. yes russian industry is currently suffering a three stooges-esque comedy of errors as dozens of cia-linked sabotage teams with bad russian accents and fake moustaches trip all over eachother

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 06:43 on Mar 24, 2023

Power Khan
Aug 20, 2011

by Fritz the Horse

Alan Smithee posted:

maybe you were thinking of another one? I recall there was one that was shooting up a tank or bmp head on and then aimed at the undergap since it looked like someone was taking cover behind

That's the one?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Is6tdWdwV4g

Bonus BTR backscratching

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1512071410339901446?lang=de

Xakura
Jan 10, 2019

A safety-conscious little mouse!

orange juche posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPhycuLAtaw&t=2392s

Couple days old but Perun made a good note of the "forced to attack entrenched troops with shovels" thing that was stated to be sourced from the UK MOD. Turns out the original product stated that Russian infantry was forced to advance with firearms and shovels, and news media took the "and shovels" and ran with it, ignoring the fact that the infantry troops also had their standard firearms.

Always check your sources, if it seems sensational, look for sourcing, and if possible, read the original source information.

tbh, I saw "firearms and shovels" repeated everywhere, and was quite puzzled why people seemed to not read the first part.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

GD_American posted:

Well he's got the insufferability nailed




Pilin' on the pounds eh Jack

orange juche
Mar 14, 2012



Xakura posted:

tbh, I saw "firearms and shovels" repeated everywhere, and was quite puzzled why people seemed to not read the first part.

Probably because people not familiar with infantry aren't aware that soldiers are issued entrenching tools as part of their kit, and only think of their rifles, so seeing shovels mentioned in the MOD report made them disregard the firearms part because of the "sensational-ness" of thinking about soldiers getting shovels.

Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

No but his article is "cited" in the same way as Sy's stupid pipeline piece. Unnamed sources described in a vague yet enticingly mysterious way. Also the closing paragraph is totally bonkers "I tried to publish this in the mainstream media but the evil CIA told them blah blah blah". It's the same Government Conspiracy Suppressing the Truth style as a fraudulent POW memoir about a super-secret Japanese prison camp run by a traitorous British officer whose name appears nowhere in British Army records that I'm researching.

I came across him on a podcast I listen to, and he didn't raise any immediate red flags for me. Which might tell you more about myself than him, of course. Just for reference, I consider Hersh's story to be complete bullshit.

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/special-whos-burning-russia-secrets-of-a-covert/id1593634121?i=1000593754917

Bell_
Sep 3, 2006

Tiny Baltimore
A billion light years away
A goon's posting the same thing
But he's already turned to dust
And the shitpost we read
Is a billion light-years old
A ghost just like the rest of us

orange juche posted:

He isn't, but the article has as sourcing "just trust me bro" basically. It's unverifiable, and the reader is asked to just trust the author is not filling their head with poo poo. It's RUMINT, and RUMINT isn't something you can trust uncritically.

I'd love for there to be a vast CIA conspiracy to sabotage the Russian military industrial complex, but that would depend on the CIA being competent, which they've shown over and over that they're not.
The most damning sabotage I can imagine from the CIA would be finding the equivalent of the Dulles Brothers and getting them into positions of influence.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
it's not that murphy is particularly credible or un-credible, it's that there's no tangible sourcing in that piece and no editorial review board was willing to put their credibility behind it (which would involve him sharing some/most sources enough that they can establish whether it's founded in anything), nor even were any more reputable (and actual journalist) nat sec reporters willing to touch it.

It's complicated a bit insofar as he is someone who could very well have run into people with knowledge of what he claims, if it was true, so that's not entirely implausible, but why publish it is a big question. As written the piece doesn't really play too neatly into either side: it's somewhat bait for Russians and no doubt will get shared widely, but the narrative that Russia is massively penetrated by sabotage teams that are so numerous that they're tripping over themselves and that Russia is mostly powerless to stop them is very much not a message Russia pushes or would ever push. Conversely highlighting some ongoing covert efforts is not something especially common in the opposite direction, either. His stated reasoning for publishing the piece is weird too: 'the public has no idea about this and needs to know' is bizarre when there's an entire, huge, impossible to miss messaging campaign about how everything in Russia is catching fire due to wink wink smoking accidents. Like what is there to expose, there's already a billion rumors to that effect but without any remotely tangible evidence or statements, it's not exposing anything, instead it's just shaping a narrative.

Anyways who really knows wtf the intentions around that are, there's so little concrete there that trying to divine anything from it is just speculating about speculation. I agree with the comparison to the Hersh piece, albeit this is less clearly directed in a specific direction.

orange juche
Mar 14, 2012



Herstory Begins Now posted:

it's not that murphy is particularly credible or un-credible, it's that there's no tangible sourcing in that piece and no editorial review board was willing to put their credibility behind it (which would involve him sharing some/most sources enough that they can establish whether it's founded in anything), nor even were any more reputable (and actual journalist) nat sec reporters willing to touch it.

It's complicated a bit insofar as he is someone who could very well have run into people with knowledge of what he claims, if it was true, so that's not entirely implausible, but why publish it is a big question. As written the piece doesn't really play too neatly into either side: it's somewhat bait for Russians and no doubt will get shared widely, but the narrative that Russia is massively penetrated by sabotage teams that are so numerous that they're tripping over themselves and that Russia is mostly powerless to stop them is very much not a message Russia pushes or would ever push. Conversely highlighting some ongoing covert efforts is not something especially common in the opposite direction, either. His stated reasoning for publishing the piece is weird too: 'the public has no idea about this and needs to know' is bizarre when there's an entire, huge, impossible to miss messaging campaign about how everything in Russia is catching fire due to wink wink smoking accidents. Like what is there to expose, there's already a billion rumors to that effect but without any remotely tangible evidence or statements, it's not exposing anything, instead it's just shaping a narrative.

Anyways who really knows wtf the intentions around that are, there's so little concrete there that trying to divine anything from it is just speculating about speculation. I agree with the comparison to the Hersh piece, albeit this is less clearly directed in a specific direction.


It could also be throwing poo poo at a wall and seeing what sticks, maybe he's hoping to blow something wide open without having any hard proof but thinking he will make it big as an investigative journalist just like Hersh did back in the day.

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Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

Give me a comedy about a dysfunctional cia sabotage team running around Russia but every week they try to attack a facility only to find out that the same Russian worker has accidentally set fire to it.

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