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Irony Be My Shield posted:Is the UK MoD's claim that the Bakhmut offensive has "largely stalled" accurate? Russia's advance certainly seems to have slowed even further but my understanding was that the current position is basically untenable for Ukraine given how threatened their only supply line is. If generals and Zelensky are having photoshoots there it seems they are very confident in holding it and not dying when they visit I know defmon is predicting it is about to become a mass grave any day now but he's been saying that for over a month
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Mar 25, 2023 15:45
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re-posting for a fresh page D&D feedback thread is open for the weekend. This is your opportunity to click into the quote and make yourself heard before I change the thread rules. cinci zoo sniper posted:I'll kramer some war thread business in here, to have it all contained. Unfortunately, the timing of this feedback thread catches me at a busier period IRL, so I'll be brief and unlikely debating the feedback raised particularly thoroughly, if at all. I will, however, read it all before implementing the rules update for the war thread – which is not going to happen at least until April, to keep expectations clear. Do not discuss this in this thread, for the avoidance of doubt.
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Mar 25, 2023 15:47
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Charliegrs posted:Super dumb question but couldn't Ukraine hit Russian positions in Bakhmut with HIMARS from a safe distance? Like I'm surprised they aren't doing that 24/7. Unless they are? As others have said, HIMARS ammunition is pretty rare and expensive, so they are reserved for high value targets like ammo dumps and fuel dumps, motor pools and command posts. This shapes the logistics of the war. The equation for the number of vehicles needed to supply a battle is pretty simple, it's the roundtrip time divided by the required interval between arrivals. The faster you can make the roundtrip, the less vehicles you need to keep up the supply rate. I suspect one of the reasons the Russian military has concentrated its efforts almost exclusively in a few spots in Donetsk and south Lukhansk is that these are places where the roads leading in are good enough that they can bring in enough equipment and troops from beyond HIMARS range to support an offensive with the vehicles they have.
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Mar 25, 2023 17:53
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Somaen posted:If generals and Zelensky are having photoshoots there it seems they are very confident in holding it and not dying when they visit I agree that if Zelensky could make a visit, the Ukrainians are pretty confident on that front. I think the Bakhmut situation was worse before Ukraine decided to commit more reinforcements to hold it. Some twitter commentators suggested that troops were rotated from the Avdiivka front for this so that area got a bit more dicey as a result. It seems like both areas are holding and they have weathered the Russian offensive though. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/25/world/europe/ukraine-russia-bakhmut.html NY times cites a few sources stating that observed numbers of assaults per day have dropped significantly. NYT also has an interesting article about a non profit getting prosthetics fitted for Ukrainian soldiers: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/24/world/europe/ukraine-war-amputees.html I can't imagine being fitted for a prosthetic and then wanting to go back into the army, just incredibly dedicated dudes.
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Mar 25, 2023 18:14
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WarpedLichen posted:I agree that if Zelensky could make a visit, the Ukrainians are pretty confident on that front. I think the Bakhmut situation was worse before Ukraine decided to commit more reinforcements to hold it. Some twitter commentators suggested that troops were rotated from the Avdiivka front for this so that area got a bit more dicey as a result. It seems like both areas are holding and they have weathered the Russian offensive though. There were a few US soldiers that did exactly that in Afghanistan/Iraq, but nobody is going to hold a candle to Douglas Bader. Dude lost both legs in a training accident before WWII started, but that didn’t stop him from becoming the stuff of nazi pilot nightmares. 22 aerial victories alone between 1940 and 1941, when he was shot down/captured and spent the rest of the war in a PoW camp. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Bader
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Mar 25, 2023 18:19
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Icon Of Sin posted:There were a few US soldiers that did exactly that in Afghanistan/Iraq, but nobody is going to hold a candle to Douglas Bader. Dude lost both legs in a training accident before WWII started, but that didn’t stop him from becoming the stuff of nazi pilot nightmares. 22 aerial victories alone between 1940 and 1941, when he was shot down/captured and spent the rest of the war in a PoW camp. Never heard of that guy before and he sounds absolutely awesome. 
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Mar 25, 2023 18:30
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https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/nordstream-sprengung-neue-spur-russland-100.html The German press reports that “suspicious” Russian military vessels based in Kaliningrad are presumed to have operated near the Nord Stream attack site just a few days before it.
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Mar 25, 2023 18:54
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WarpedLichen posted:Never heard of that guy before and he sounds absolutely awesome. His log entry for the day he crashed and lost his legs is a sight to behold  quote:Crashed slow-rolling near ground. Bad show.
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Mar 25, 2023 19:03
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Reuters article: Russia has struck a deal with neighbouring Belarus to station tactical nuclear weapons on its territory, Tass news agency quoted President Vladimir Putin as saying on Saturday. This seems... bad? As I understand it, wouldn't putting nukes in Belarus be against the current treaties?
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Mar 25, 2023 19:16
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jaete posted:Reuters article: Russia has struck a deal with neighbouring Belarus to station tactical nuclear weapons on its territory, Tass news agency quoted President Vladimir Putin as saying on Saturday. It's one of the things they can do that doesn't appreciably change realistic nuclear threats but also appears to saber rattling with actual teeth. It's being done to scare Europeans and show how totally serious we should all be scared of Russia. For real this time guys, they mean it.
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Mar 25, 2023 19:19
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jaete posted:This seems... bad? As I understand it, wouldn't putting nukes in Belarus be against the current treaties? they're just continually working on new red lines and provocations and coming up with ... you know, whatever. part sabre rattling, part brinkmanship.
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Mar 25, 2023 19:33
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How is that supposed to scare Europeans when there are already nukes in Kaliningrad? Is the idea to get people talking and anxious about nukes again? Tbh seems kind of fair now that nuclear bombers are flying in the baltics and finland
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Mar 25, 2023 19:37
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Somaen posted:How is that supposed to scare Europeans when there are already nukes in Kaliningrad? Is the idea to get people talking and anxious about nukes again? Fear of nuclear war was one of the biggest reasons for hesitation of Europe supporting Ukraine at the start of the war. The "realists" who wanted to provide an "offramp" so Putin could "save face" kept scaring people with nuclear war. This has mostly subsided, and I don't expect this latest move to have much effect here in Europe.
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Mar 25, 2023 19:47
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how the gently caress did he get luka to agree to that it's not like whatever 4D chess game luka had going on with "oh no, i might align more closely with europe, vova surely you wouldn't want that" had any legs after the 2020 elections (and that brief "here poland, have some free iraqi/syrian asylum seekers who somehow wound up in belovezha" nonsense interlude after), much less after allowing russian troops to invade ukraine from their territory, but like, wat why dig that hole deeper now. it's not even winter beg for cheap gas season
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Mar 25, 2023 19:55
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In a world with intercontinental ballistic missiles does it really matter where shorter range missiles are stationed.
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Mar 25, 2023 20:03
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spankmeister posted:Fear of nuclear war was one of the biggest reasons for hesitation of Europe supporting Ukraine at the start of the war. The "realists" who wanted to provide an "offramp" so Putin could "save face" kept scaring people with nuclear war. This has mostly subsided, and I don't expect this latest move to have much effect here in Europe. Yup, it always helps the credibility of your nuclear threat if you appear to be off your rocker. And there was A LOT of speculation about the mental health of Putin after he started the war. At this point though that fear has worn out. Qtotonibudinibudet posted:how the gently caress did he get luka to agree to that If you are Russia's neighbour: 1) Never refuse being given nukes 2) Never give them back
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Mar 25, 2023 20:06
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:how the gently caress did he get luka to agree to that Lukashenko's been saying that Russia can give Belarus nuclear and 'ultranuclear' weapons since 2020 should NATO cross some unspecified red lines. In the new Belarusian constitution the article about Belarus' non-nuclear status was removed along with the article on neutrality. It took over a year to prepare the referendum in Feb 2022, so presumably Lukashenko wasn't entirely happy about it, but pretty much has to do what he's told at this point.
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Mar 25, 2023 20:11
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spankmeister posted:Fear of nuclear war was one of the biggest reasons for hesitation of Europe supporting Ukraine at the start of the war. The "realists" who wanted to provide an "offramp" so Putin could "save face" kept scaring people with nuclear war. This has mostly subsided, and I don't expect this latest move to have much effect here in Europe. That's exactly what I mean, how does this change anything? Oh no, Poland and Lithuania can now be nuked not from Kaliningrad and Muhosransk, but from Kaliningrad and Minsk, making the flight time somewhat shorter from the eastern direction!!
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Mar 25, 2023 20:12
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Charliegrs posted:In a world with intercontinental ballistic missiles does it really matter where shorter range missiles are stationed. It kind of does though, because it reduces the warning time.
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Mar 25, 2023 20:13
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Charliegrs posted:In a world with intercontinental ballistic missiles does it really matter where shorter range missiles are stationed. And subs. Guess the real question is will tac nukes trigger the end of the world or will they not? But we have a thread for that nonsense... The audience for this is probably Putin and Russia more than actually scaring Europe (though in Putin's mind it's probably some of the latter, even if its divorced from reality).
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Mar 25, 2023 20:13
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/nordstream-sprengung-neue-spur-russland-100.html Oliver Alexander and t-online journalists have been working on this, details in English and further links below: https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/osint-analysis-six-russian-ships It's probably no smoking gun, but you'd need to be a naval analyst to tell if anything about this was unusual compared to normal Russian naval activity in the Baltic. It just goes to show how much military naval activity is going on; anyone can latch onto their narrative of choice and find corroborative evidence for it.
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Mar 25, 2023 20:38
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Somaen posted:That's exactly what I mean, how does this change anything? Oh no, Poland and Lithuania can now be nuked not from Kaliningrad and Muhosransk, but from Kaliningrad and Minsk, making the flight time somewhat shorter from the eastern direction!! If Belarus was actually threatened with invasion like their government sometimes claims, it would be a potential deterrence. Since nobody is actually interested in invading them, it's probably just a cheap attempt to scare European countries and tie Belarus closer to Russia.
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Mar 25, 2023 20:58
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EasilyConfused posted:If Belarus was actually threatened with invasion like their government sometimes claims, it would be a potential deterrence. Since nobody is actually interested in invading them, it's probably just a cheap attempt to scare European countries and tie Belarus closer to Russia. I think it's intended as coup/revolution deterrence since as said there's no one interested in invading. And I don't see it as really scaring European populations especially more. However, since Putin (and those around him) views all revolutions as having external origins - in their mind this may contribute towards dissuading western powers from fomenting a coup or encouraging protests in Belarus due to the hypothetical uncertainty surrounding custody of the deployed nuclear weapons, response from the Kremlin, etc.
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Mar 25, 2023 21:54
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Charliegrs posted:In a world with intercontinental ballistic missiles does it really matter where shorter range missiles are stationed. The first rule about thermonuclear annihilation is: HAVE FUN!🤯 (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 25, 2023 23:03
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Charliegrs posted:Super dumb question but couldn't Ukraine hit Russian positions in Bakhmut with HIMARS from a safe distance? Like I'm surprised they aren't doing that 24/7. Unless they are? To add on to this, they're not exactly "safe" along with all of the other artillery assets. They move around constantly, fire, and then move on. Soldiers on the front lines are purposely not told about the location of artillery for their protection. If I recall right, this interview of a foreign legionary talked a little bit about this (might have been a different interview). P.S. Just in case,  on the interview. Descriptions of graphic violence and death.
RockWhisperer fucked around with this message at 23:09 on Mar 25, 2023 |
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Mar 25, 2023 23:07
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https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/121j88d/they_are_dumped_into_the_trenches_like_the/ Interesting video from Russian mobiks. No gore or combat, just a bunch of exhausted looking guys talking about the hellzone they were sent to and their casualties. Interesting to me is that they claim they're being given criminal orders to advance directly into Ukrainian lines of fires (nothing new there), that "blocking" units are established behind them to force them to stay at the front, mobiks are being fleeced for cash on threat of being mobilised to dangerous fronts, and the fact that some of them are "officially" still in training in Kalinigrad despite their unit being decimated at the Ukrainian front in 14 days. The latter claim is the most interesting to me: could we be underestimating the amount of mobiks that are supposedly still in training? Can any goons who are native speakers identify whether this is plausible / they have Kalinigrad accents etc. or whether this could potentially be a psyop? Deltasquid fucked around with this message at 00:47 on Mar 26, 2023 |
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Mar 26, 2023 00:16
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Deltasquid posted:Can any goons who are native speakers identify whether this is plausible / they have Kalinigrad accents etc. or whether this could potentially be a psyop? Dmitri/wartranslated posted this from Russians responding to other Russians asking/claiming the same https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1639757260766191619
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Mar 26, 2023 00:25
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hey mom its 420 posted:Anders Puck Nielsen has a new video about Bakhmut and the larger picture of the war right now. I always find him to be insightful and he presents (what I humbly deem to be) good takes. Pro click. APN is a very interesting analyst and this is a great video.
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Mar 26, 2023 01:19
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Lum_ posted:Dmitri/wartranslated posted this from Russians responding to other Russians asking/claiming the same Wait, by "blocking units" they mean literally "shoot everyone who tries to retreat" units and we have another tick on our "WW2 Red Army myths made real by Putin" list or is it something else?
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Mar 26, 2023 02:02
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Szarrukin posted:Wait, by "blocking units" they mean literally "shoot everyone who tries to retreat" units and we have another tick on our "WW2 Red Army myths made real by Putin" list or is it something else? Yes, it's literal shoot anyone that tries to retreat
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Mar 26, 2023 02:09
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Deltasquid posted:Can any goons who are native speakers identify whether this is plausible / they have Kalinigrad accents etc. or whether this could potentially be a psyop? Russian is much more homogeneous, and it can be quite difficult, if not impossible, to place an accent on a map. There are some stereotypical traits ascribed to this or that region, but they're not particularly difficult to avoid, i.e., we're not talking Received Pronunciation vs Texan English here. You could film an equally credible video in Latvia, if you had nothing better to do with your time. That said, the origin of this video is not particularly disputable in this case, as quite a few of them are seemingly getting identified as real soldiers. However, it's not really clear why, when, and how this was filmed, so I wouldn't get ahead of yourself with hooting and hollering about barrier units being “confirmed”. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 20:56 on Mar 27, 2023 |
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Mar 26, 2023 02:27
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Deltasquid posted:[url], mobiks are being fleeced for cash on threat of being mobilised to dangerous fronts,  Is the Russian /Army/ that bad? I can't say I'm surprised but this particular turd sandwich is a new one for me to hear about. Is this a thing anywhere else?
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Mar 26, 2023 02:34
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Mederlock posted:
There were reports families were being enticed to pay bribes to keep husbands and sons away from combat zones months ago, as I recall. It's kinda hard to find them now, unfortunately, but I definitely remember reports about that. That said, while I have a lot more faith in Ukrainian/pro-Ukrainian reporting than Russian/pro-Russian ones, it's still a war and there's a lot of people with an interest in making Russia look bad, so I only evaluate it as a "maybe."
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Mar 26, 2023 03:01
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It's the inevitable result of low-level corruption. Anywhere where you pay a little baksheesh to smooth your way is gonna have similar things going on. Certainly I have read about similar things happening in Russia before the war - conscripts paying some cash to get better postings for their mandatory service. The war has just resulted in a particular life and death urgency that gives the corrupt more leverage. This is separate from the sort of high level corruption where the wealthy and powerful pull strings. The children of the Russian elite getting soft postings is not too different from, say, George W. Bush getting assigned to the Texas Air National Guard during Vietnam.
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Mar 26, 2023 03:12
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Mederlock posted:
Putin hollowed out Russian military leadership because he's terrified of someone competent in the military threatening his rule. Dmitry Medvedev once claimed 20% (that's 1/5th) of the Russian military budget was being lost through theft. This sounds literally insane until you learn that the Russian military in around 2010 awarded a multi-million dollar contract to Zvezdochka to refurbish the Russian Battlecrusier Pyotr Veliky. The Zvezdochka ship repair yard is a completely reputable company, the real issue here was that they gave the contract to the wrong Zvezdochka. And this is just some high profile example, who knows how many fraudulent contracts are Russian military are truly handing out. When the top is so openly corrupt and salaries/work conditions are consistently awful, you have everyone trying to do everything to improve their living conditions. There's definitely a huge purchase of commissions problem in the Russian military so its a pretty logical conclusion to assume officers who paid for their posts would be doing everything to recoup their investment. jeffreyw fucked around with this message at 11:55 on Mar 26, 2023 |
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Mar 26, 2023 11:41
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Szarrukin posted:Wait, by "blocking units" they mean literally "shoot everyone who tries to retreat" units and we have another tick on our "WW2 Red Army myths made real by Putin" list or is it something else? Was it a myth in WW2? I thought the myth was that troops were sent into battle without guns (because they didn't have enough) and were told to pick them up from their dead comrades.
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Mar 26, 2023 13:59
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Afaik blocking units like presented in Enemy at the Gates didn't really happen, but NKVD was at times deployed to catch and court martial anyone leaving the frontline. The way it was shown in EAG wouldn't have made sense. "Comrade, go back to battalion Hq and tell the Germans are retreating! We need reinforcements to pursue them!" "I can't, they will just shoot messengers at sight!" Nenonen fucked around with this message at 14:10 on Mar 26, 2023 |
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Mar 26, 2023 14:06
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So Hungary keeps advocating for a cease-firequote:Péter Szijjártó, Head of Hungarian Foreign Ministry, said that Budapest's call for a ceasefire in Ukraine and beginning of peace negotiations does not suggest they believe that Russia should claim all the Ukrainian territories it currently controls. I read the linked interview (a lot of whining about hurt feelings etc.) and there aren't really any more detailed on how that's supposed to work. What possible leverage is there to get them to leave? I don't see rolling back sanctions and pinky swearing not to let Ukraine into NATO would do anything.
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Mar 26, 2023 14:44
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Charliegrs posted:Was it a myth in WW2? I thought the myth was that troops were sent into battle without guns (because they didn't have enough) and were told to pick them up from their dead comrades. Definitely not a myth, my great-uncle was a decorated war veteran from a blocking battalion and went all the way to Berlin He died before I was born and I don't know the stories but "no step back under the penalty of death" was indeed an order by Stalin and blocking battalions are not remembered warmly in historical memory
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Mar 26, 2023 14:54
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Charliegrs posted:Was it a myth in WW2? I thought the myth was that troops were sent into battle without guns (because they didn't have enough) and were told to pick them up from their dead comrades. The blocking detachments were real, but I believe it’s a bit overblown about Russia having to shoot their own men. They mainly served as ways to help reorganize and reconstitute so soldiers didn’t just retreat in a disorganized manner and get even more people killed. I think the draconian stuff you’re thinking of became less necessary once the Red Army finally learned the right lessons from its defeats by the Germans in 1941-1942 and got its poo poo together.
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