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(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)
 
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zone
Dec 6, 2016

RDM posted:

I don't think that's true, it was absolutely possible for Ukraine to keep their nukes. They chose not to for a bunch of good reasons. They could have chosen differently. They didn't need western help to maintain or modify weapons, and iirc it was mostly western economic incentives that got them to agree to the Budapest Memorandum.

They needed the money more than they needed the nukes. Their economy was pretty fragile and they couldn't have afforded to maintain them anyway.

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mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

zone posted:

They needed the money more than they needed the nukes. Their economy was pretty fragile and they couldn't have afforded to maintain them anyway.

First you get the nukes than you get the money, much easier this way

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Lord Stimperor posted:

What is the general consensus regarding the Chinese-Russian relationship in this war? Any indications as to what degree China will enable Russia? I understand there was a summit recently but I am absolutely not caught up with the news for personal reasons.

China changed the names of Vladivostok and other territories taken during the humiliation back to its historical ones

A Sino-Russian friendship to last for centuries decades years months days things are being evaluated

kill me now
Sep 14, 2003

Why's Hank crying?

'CUZ HE JUST GOT DUNKED ON!

RDM posted:

I mean this is entirely wrong. The Soviet troops guarding them were... no longer Soviet

But they were by and large ethnic Russian or other non Ukrainian. They were not going to turn around and pledge loyalty to their new Ukrainian overlords regardless of the end of the Soviet Union.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Tiny Timbs posted:

fwiw one of the people doing this was permabanned for buying themselves death threat and transphobic avatars and trying to pin it on other people

I won’t say anything more to preserve the sanctity of this thread, but KM moments should not go to waste

russian intelligence: "We should use some plague rats"

intel agent: "won't that just get our own men sick too? I mean we can do it and blame it on NATO labs sure"

russian intelligence: "I meant for psyop posting on most relevant forum somethingawful dot com cyka"

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Brokebrained concern trolls don't need russian intelligence to run them, they can shitpost pro-russian garbage all on their own

RDM
Apr 6, 2009

I LOVE FINLAND AND ESPECIALLY FINLAND'S MILITARY ALLIANCES, GOOGLE FINLAND WORLD WAR 2 FOR MORE INFORMATION SLAVA UKRANI

zone posted:

They needed the money more than they needed the nukes. Their economy was pretty fragile and they couldn't have afforded to maintain them anyway.
Yeah that's the argument that got them to disarm.

I don't think anyone will ever listen to it again.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...


mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Alan Smithee posted:

China changed the names of Vladivostok and other territories taken during the humiliation back to its historical ones

A Sino-Russian friendship to last for centuries decades years months days things are being evaluated

Also an interesting detail on the "unlimited friendship" that ronya pointed out in the D&D thread:

ronya posted:

five days ago:

quote:

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/zyxw/202303/t20230322_11046188.shtml

  双方强调《五个核武器国家领导人关于防止核战争与避免军备竞赛的联合声明》的重要意义,重申“核战争打不赢也打不得”。双方呼吁联合声明所有签署国遵循该声明理念,切实降低核战争风险,避免核武器国家间爆发任何武装冲突。在核武器国家关系恶化背景下,减少战略风险的措施应有机地融入到缓和紧张局势、构建更具建设性的关系以及最大程度化解安全领域矛盾的总体努力中。所有核武器国家都不应在境外部署核武器并应撤出在境外部署的核武器。

quote:

The two sides emphasized the significance of the “Joint Statement of the Leaders of the Five Nuclear-Weapon States on the Prevention of Nuclear War and Avoidance of an Arms Race” and reaffirmed that “nuclear war cannot be won or won”. The two sides call on all signatories of the joint statement to abide by the concept of the statement, effectively reduce the risk of nuclear war, and avoid any armed conflict among nuclear-weapon states. Against the backdrop of deteriorating relations among nuclear-weapon states, measures to reduce strategic risks should be organically integrated into overall efforts to ease tensions, build more constructive relations, and minimize conflicts in the security field. All nuclear-weapon states should refrain from deploying nuclear weapons abroad and withdraw nuclear weapons deployed abroad.

the Belarus announcement seems calculated to embarrass Beijing in a "so you thought we were obedient junior partners huh?" way

pro starcraft loser
Jan 23, 2006

Stand back, this could get messy.

In 20 years, the US, Europe, and the Russians have shown to every country on Earth that nuclear weapons are absolutely vital to survival and that is really sad and scary.

EasilyConfused
Nov 21, 2009


one strong toad

pro starcraft loser posted:

In 20 years, the US, Europe, and the Russians have shown to every country on Earth that nuclear weapons are absolutely vital to survival and that is really sad and scary.

Let's not get carried away. There's like 190 non-nuclear countries in the world, very few of them would be more likely to survive with nukes than currently.

pro starcraft loser
Jan 23, 2006

Stand back, this could get messy.

EasilyConfused posted:

Let's not get carried away. There's like 190 non-nuclear countries in the world, very few of them would be more likely to survive with nukes than currently.

The US would not have gone into Iraq if they had nukes
Europe would not have gone into Libya if they had nukes
Russia would not have gone into Ukraine if they had nukes
X would not have invaded Y if Y had nukes

Why do you think the US and Europe aren't throwing everything we have at Russia right now?

EasilyConfused
Nov 21, 2009


one strong toad

pro starcraft loser posted:

The US would not have gone into Iraq if they had nukes
Europe would not have gone into Libya if they had nukes
Russia would not have gone into Ukraine if they had nukes
X would not have invaded Y if Y had nukes

Why do you think the US and Europe aren't throwing everything we have at Russia right now?

I don't disagree, just pointing out that most countries don't need nukes to avoid being invaded and none of this is somehow new.

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

kill me now posted:

But they were by and large ethnic Russian or other non Ukrainian. They were not going to turn around and pledge loyalty to their new Ukrainian overlords regardless of the end of the Soviet Union.

Many of the troops left behind weren't getting paid or supplied anymore and in many cases just left their postings, leaving things in a state where the Ukrainian military ended up guarding many of the nukes. Russia didn't exactly enter into these negotiations for the return of the weapons for no reason - while they didn't have the codes to use them the Ukrainians *did* physically control many of the weapons.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1639791055934570499
No, you will not have it.

Pot Smoke Phoenix
Aug 15, 2007



Smoke 'em if you gottem!
Dinosaur Gum
Ukraine is gonna hook up a bunch of tractors to an atom and split it.

That'll show Putin!

pro starcraft loser
Jan 23, 2006

Stand back, this could get messy.

Pot Smoke Phoenix posted:

Ukraine is gonna hook up a bunch of tractors to an atom and split it.

That'll show Putin!

Best tractor pull ever.

biglads
Feb 21, 2007

I could've gone to Blatherwycke



Hearing reports from seasoned Kremlin watchers that Putins sharts are increasing in both size and frequency.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1639995342539169792
uh-oh.

poverty goat
Feb 15, 2004



Warbadger posted:

Many of the troops left behind weren't getting paid or supplied anymore and in many cases just left their postings, leaving things in a state where the Ukrainian military ended up guarding many of the nukes. Russia didn't exactly enter into these negotiations for the return of the weapons for no reason - while they didn't have the codes to use them the Ukrainians *did* physically control many of the weapons.

how difficult could it possibly be at this point to bypass whatever security? Is it actually reasonable to assume that independent ukraine with lots of free time and maybe a little western help could not have controlled those nukes themselves?

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006


I'd be surprised if they didn't have those sorts of meetings, even if they didn't expect something to happen in the immediate future.

poverty goat posted:

how difficult could it possibly be at this point to bypass whatever security? Is it actually reasonable to assume that independent ukraine with lots of free time and maybe a little western help could not have controlled those nukes themselves?

I think they could have, given time. Ukraine had a wealth of industrial, weapons, and nuclear expertise and even if they handed over 90% of the weapons to play super nice they'd have been keeping over a hundred warheads. But they wouldn't have and didn't for other reasons.

Warbadger fucked around with this message at 23:19 on Mar 26, 2023

Runa
Feb 13, 2011

biglads posted:

Hearing reports from seasoned Kremlin watchers that Putins sharts are increasing in both size and frequency.

this ruins the potato

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

Warbadger posted:

I'd be surprised if they didn't have those sorts of meetings, even if they didn't expect something to happen in the immediate future.

I think they could have, given time. Ukraine had a wealth of industrial, weapons, and nuclear expertise and even if they handed over 90% of the weapons to play super nice they'd have been keeping over a hundred warheads. But they wouldn't have and didn't for other reasons.

From the wikipedia article:


quote:

The deterrent value of the nuclear weapons in Ukraine was also questionable: Ukraine had taken "administrative control" of the weapon delivery systems and implemented measures to prevent Russia from using them, but would have had to spend 12 to 18 months to establish full operational control over its nuclear arsenal.[9] The ICBMs also had a range of 5,000–10,000 km (initially targeting the United States), which meant that they could only have been re-targeted to hit Russia's far east.[9] The Soviet air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs) had been disabled by the Russian military during the collapse of the Soviet Union, but even if they had been reconfigured and made to work by the Ukrainians, it is unlikely that they would have had a deterrent effect.[9] Had Ukraine decided to establish full operational control of its nuclear weapons, it would have faced sanctions by the West and perhaps even a withdrawal of diplomatic recognition by the United States and other NATO allies.[9] Ukraine would also likely have faced retaliatory action by Russia.[9] Ukraine would also have struggled with replacing the nuclear weapons once their service life expired, as Ukraine did not have a nuclear weapons program.[9] In exchange for giving up its nuclear weapons, Ukraine received financial compensation, as well as the security assurances of the Budapest Memorandum.[9]

RDM
Apr 6, 2009

I LOVE FINLAND AND ESPECIALLY FINLAND'S MILITARY ALLIANCES, GOOGLE FINLAND WORLD WAR 2 FOR MORE INFORMATION SLAVA UKRANI

poverty goat posted:

how difficult could it possibly be at this point to bypass whatever security? Is it actually reasonable to assume that independent ukraine with lots of free time and maybe a little western help could not have controlled those nukes themselves?
It would have required no western help and basically no time or money. It's like a bank vault. The security is the guys with the guns, the engineering layer is just supposed to buy them a bit of time to notice you loving with this warhead. It's not a replacement for keeping physical custody of the weapon.

The cost is that you have to spend money on your own dudes for security and nuclear maintenance, plus a ton of physical infrastructure to keep them working, etc etc. Not having a guy with a screwdriver bypass some cold war era lock.

Turrurrurrurrrrrrr
Dec 22, 2018

I hope this is "battle" enough for you, friend.

Alan Smithee posted:

they are just out of frame, radiating too

I thought he meant mobiks. Could be both if they march through Prypjat?

zone
Dec 6, 2016

https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/status/1639348095258353671
More big fat jokes about things that will never happen.

TK-42-1
Oct 30, 2013

looks like we have a bad transmitter




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysbbNHccY04&t=15s

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

EasilyConfused posted:

I doubt this. A lot of people expected that would happen when the Soviet Union broke up. Seems unlikely that it would happen after more than 30 years of independence if it didn't then.

The specific reason it didn't happen is that Russia made it not happen by supporting a weirdo separatist statelet on their territory. Attepting to join Romania before dealing with that first is pretty much impossible, and since dealing with that would probably involve shooting at people who are officially Russian soldiers, it was not popular.

The crucial point that needs to be made is that it's very hard to understate just how good of a deal EU was for Romania. Before the USSR broke up, Moldova was per capita richer than Romania proper. Today, Romania has twice the GDP/capita of Moldova. Everyone in Moldova knows this, and even people who kinda lean pro-Russian have started to think that maybe some sort of reunification, but with guarantees for minorities, should be done.

Soggy Muffin
Jul 29, 2003

Yep that’s him alright. What a fighter

Soggy Muffin
Jul 29, 2003

Just Another Lurker posted:

I had forgotten that post from PegLegActual, 10 months ago... hope he's doing well.

His last post a year ago was on how he was going to the front lines again tomorrow… Does anyone know what happened to him or if he’s ok?

Deki
May 12, 2008

It's Hammer Time!

zone posted:

https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/status/1639348095258353671
More big fat jokes about things that will never happen.

Did nobody tell this man that War is bad!?

Kchama
Jul 25, 2007

Soggy Muffin posted:

His last post a year ago was on how he was going to the front lines again tomorrow… Does anyone know what happened to him or if he’s ok?

According to someone in this thread, he made soldiers happy and that's it.

Deki posted:

Did nobody tell this man that War is bad!?

The only people who need to be told that war is bad are people who are against an invasion.


Those for it are saints and know that fighting back is the worst, and therefore don't need to be told.

Karma Comedian
Feb 2, 2012

Soggy Muffin posted:

His last post a year ago was on how he was going to the front lines again tomorrow… Does anyone know what happened to him or if he’s ok?

Iirc there was a very strict "don't post about going there"/anti war tourism policy that got quickly adopted

zone
Dec 6, 2016

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1639756577338015745
Here's something interesting.

SlurredSpeech609
Oct 29, 2012


Camouflaging trenches seems like a pretty good idea. :shrug:

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Soggy Muffin posted:

His last post a year ago was on how he was going to the front lines again tomorrow… Does anyone know what happened to him or if he’s ok?

He has passed on, to Twitter

Terminally Bored
Oct 31, 2011

Twenty-five dollars and a six pack to my name

Tiny Timbs posted:

fwiw one of the people doing this was permabanned for buying themselves death threat and transphobic avatars and trying to pin it on other people

I won’t say anything more to preserve the sanctity of this thread, but KM moments should not go to waste

Alan Smithee posted:

russian intelligence: "We should use some plague rats"

intel agent: "won't that just get our own men sick too? I mean we can do it and blame it on NATO labs sure"

russian intelligence: "I meant for psyop posting on most relevant forum somethingawful dot com cyka"

some plague rats (the aforementioned permabanned user) was also the op of (two) holodomor mock thread(s). I've made a thread about it in SAD
https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4026206
and was told by both spr and the mods to basically 'deal with it'. Neat Hetero Dude also chimed in to say they didn't see what the big deal was. And now it turns out that the op, who posted extremely aggro anti-Ukrainian propaganda non stop, was literally an abusive psychotic person. Who could've predicted that?

Some great community management on display here.

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

Terminally Bored posted:

some plague rats (the aforementioned permabanned user) was also the op of (two) holodomor mock thread(s). I've made a thread about it in SAD
https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4026206
and was told by both spr and the mods to basically 'deal with it'. Neat Hetero Dude also chimed in to say they didn't see what the big deal was. And now it turns out that the op, who posted extremely aggro anti-Ukrainian propaganda non stop, was literally an abusive psychotic person. Who could've predicted that?

Some great community management on display here.

Don't complain about it here, we can't do anything about it.

In other news, half of Putin's army is either dead or out of action:

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/14881

Lead Lines (doing the math)

Russia may have just achieved a gruesome new claim to fame in its war in Ukraine. Of some 800,000 Russian troops who were part of the initial invasion army or recruited since then for the war, nearly 420,000 (over 52 percent) could now be dead or otherwise out of action due to wounds.

That breaks down as follows:

· 166,570 Russian troops killed.

· 499,700 wounded (including 150,000 still getting medical care and 100,000 permanently disabled).

The figures are based on calculations using data from Ukrainian, independent Russian, and Western sources for combat casualties and the rate at which soldiers typically return to combat after being wounded.

A military unit that has lost over 50 percent of its personnel is commonly seen as needing to be withdrawn from battle because of a loss of combat effectiveness. A 1997 U.S. Army field manual says such a unit is “combat ineffective” and “requires reconstitution before [its] next mission.” Soldiers may still be able to put up a fight, but not effectively as a cohesive military force.

grumplestiltzkin
Jun 7, 2012

Ass, gas, or grass. No one rides for free.
Was there ever any reports on the fallout(:ocelot::grin:) from all those mobiks digging and then sleeping in trenches in the spiciest parts of Chernobyl?

grumplestiltzkin fucked around with this message at 06:55 on Mar 27, 2023

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fizzy
Dec 2, 2022

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
It was reported in both the BBC (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65075952) and Kyiv Independent (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukraine-cant-start-counteroffensive-yet/) that on 25 March 2023, Zelensky said in an interview with Yomiuri Shimbun (a Japanese newspaper) that "We can't start (the counter-offensive) yet, we can't send our brave soldiers to the front line without tanks, artillery and long-range rockets."

This seems to be counter to what Oleksandr Syrskyi (the commander of Ukraine’s land forces) said on his Telegram channel on 23 March 2023, that “[Russians] are losing significant forces [in Bakhmut] and are running out of energy." and that "Very soon, we will take advantage of this opportunity, as we did in the past near Kyiv, Kharkiv, Balakliya and Kupyansk". (https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/23/europe/bakhmut-ukraine-counter-offensive-intl/index.html)


I've checked the website of Yomiuri Shimbun and I could only find Zelensky being quoted as saying "“We do not have ammunition. For us the situation in the East is not good" (https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/world/europe/20230325-99649/), but there were no quotes of him saying "We can't start the (counter-offensive) yet".

Is anyone able to find any mentions on the Yomiuri Shimbun of Zelensky saying "We can't start the (counter-offensive) yet"?

If not, where did the BBC and Kyiv Independent get that quote from? Could this be deliberate dezinformatsia being promulgated by the Ukrainian high command to confuse the Russian commanders?

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