(Thread IKs:
fart simpson)
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gradenko_2000 posted:It rules that some guy has escalated from tweets to articles to books I immediately thought of you 
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Mar 28, 2023 08:31
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stephenthinkpad posted:Its been a while but yes GA did talk about British Empire losing to the US because it was 4 out of 16 cases of that an empire losing without putting up a fight. This thucydides crap seems like a pretty strong sell for the trivial point that a ruling power and a rising power go to war more often than not. Lmao, liberals arguing that the practice of bride prices is a problem of supply and demand. Telluric Whistler posted:This is performance art The sudden hands really make it.
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Mar 28, 2023 09:06
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stephenthinkpad posted:Its been a while but yes GA did talk about British Empire losing to the US because it was 4 out of 16 cases of that an empire losing without putting up a fight. 1 and 11 seem to be case that there isn't a war because the waning and rising power can find a common arrangement that allows the weaker power waning power to still be able exist within the framework established by the rising power. 15 doesn't really hold because there were a ton of proxy wars between the two, it is simply the nature of warfare changed due to nuclear weapons. 16 is also nonsensical. Also, I would say the Ukrainian war is actually the first real proxy conflict between the US and the PRC.
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Mar 28, 2023 09:33
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our pinoy brethren continue to suffer cruel and unusual punishment
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Mar 28, 2023 09:42
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Magsaysay in the membrane, Magsaysay in the brain
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Mar 28, 2023 10:06
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Ardennes posted:Also, I would say the Ukrainian war is actually the first real proxy conflict between the US and the PRC. korea and vietnam don't count? granted the first was more of just a conflict and the chinese kinda switched sides during the latter, but still
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Mar 28, 2023 10:46
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Cerebral Bore posted:korea and vietnam don't count? Arguably, Korea and Vietnam were about the Soviets...the irony is that now the Ukrainian war involving the Russians is about China, times change.
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Mar 28, 2023 10:56
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I'm pretty sure Korea was china given how many chinese fought in it.
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Mar 28, 2023 10:59
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Danann posted:https://twitter.com/pretentiouswhat/status/1638757789119172608 Given a quick check on the map and I'd reckon a lot of that would be heating. A quick comparison of latitude is kinda interesting, China pretty much has somewhat comparable latitude distribution to the USA (not counting Alaska) though less north and more south, Hong Kong being almost around the point of Mexico City. How does the weather and climate compare? Ghost Leviathan has issued a correction as of 11:22 on Mar 28, 2023 |
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Mar 28, 2023 11:19
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Ardennes posted:1 and 11 seem to be case that there isn't a war because the waning and rising power can find a common arrangement that allows the weaker power waning power to still be able exist within the framework established by the rising power. 15 doesn't really hold because there were a ton of proxy wars between the two, it is simply the nature of warfare changed due to nuclear weapons. 16 is also nonsensical. Yeah 16 makes you think WTF is this guy thinking and question his theory. I think 15 counts. If nuclear weapon doesn't exist US and Soviet would have fought in a few peripheral regions directly. Nuclear weapon is really a game changer but doesn't mean it will forever change the game rule. Despite the iffy cases the author picked for his study I mostly agree with his conclusion. Also to simplify the looming anxiety to a short phrase, albeit a very hard to pronounce phrase. The British empire remind a unique form of empire. It preferred to rule by trade and trade chokepoints instead of defendsible military chokepoints. It deligated a lot of actual ruling to different tiers of princely states. quote:Also, I would say the Ukrainian war is actually the first real proxy conflict between the US and the PRC. Nah. RPC hasn't joined the war yet. China could in 1 or 2 years but not yet. Remember how late US entered WW1.
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Mar 28, 2023 11:55
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stephenthinkpad posted:Yeah 16 makes you think WTF is this guy thinking and question his theory. I think 15 counts. If nuclear weapon doesn't exist US and Soviet would have fought in a few peripheral regions directly. Nuclear weapon is really a game changer but doesn't mean it will forever change the game rule. I would argue that the PRC is apart of the war, but they could simply tip the scales by doing mostly nothing except buying Russian energy. The Russians have manpower, arms, and a military industrial complex, their issue is mostly keeping exportation much so cash flow isn't an issue (although they have their own cash reserves). The PRC by simply buying Russian energy (and in turn also India buying oil) keeps the wheels turning. Nuclear weapons simply fundamentally changed how wars are fought, and arguably, as time as gone on war has become somewhat more abstract but eventually there was a point that the waning power (the US) needed to fight a decisive battle to keep control and while they couldn't fight China (or the Russians directly) the ultimate result was pushing everything into a proxy war where that could occur. It is also why I doubt there will be an actual conflict over Taiwan (in terms of actual shooting) but the rivalry will be fought through over means. It doesn't mean Ukraine is the last proxy war between the two, but it is a part of a process. That is the irony, I think ww3 is already occurring it just is unrecognizable to those who expect an upgraded version of ww2 (with more nukes of course).
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Mar 28, 2023 12:11
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There are tons of people in Washington who want to replicate the Ukraine war in Taiwan because how "successful" it is to the US and how "cost efficient" it is, in comparison "terrible return" in Afghanistan. Every new weapon US is pedaling to Taiwan is in protract Ukrainian style war variety. Neverminded the Taiwan geography is completely different from Northern Europeans plate and nobody sits down and talk about how the Afghan collapse was so disastrous and "unpredictable" from the US side.
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Mar 28, 2023 12:29
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stephenthinkpad posted:There are tons of people in Washington who want to replicate the Ukraine war in Taiwan because how "successful" it is to the US and how "cost efficient" it is, in comparison "terrible return" in Afghanistan. Every new weapon US is pedaling to Taiwan is in protract Ukrainian style war variety. Neverminded the Taiwan geography is completely different from Northern Europeans plate and nobody sits down and talk about how the Afghan collapse was so disastrous and "unpredictable" from the US side. I think that is empty bravado to be honest, especially since the current war is on going and Taiwan would be a air/sea conflict which I don't think the US is prepared to fight.
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Mar 28, 2023 12:31
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im sure that there are a buncha idiots and deviants in washington who would like to create a taiwanese quagmire for china, but as things have turned out they haven't really even managed to do that for russia under far more favorable circumstances
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Mar 28, 2023 12:36
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Danann posted:https://twitter.com/pretentiouswhat/status/1638757789119172608 What the poo poo? My gf and I both work from home a lot and we switched over from gas heating to using an airconditioner for heating, aka using electricity for heating due to dumb sanctions and Nordstream blowing up making gas prices nuts and we still only expect to use around 3,000 - 3,500 kwh/year based on the past couple months of actual usage, which is also conveniently about what our solar panels generate in a year. How the gently caress do you use 6,000 kwh/year?
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Mar 28, 2023 12:37
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Ardennes posted:I think that is empty bravado to be honest, especially since the current war is on going and Taiwan would be a air/sea conflict which I don't think the US is prepared to fight. The goal is not to fight to win though, the goal is to create maximum damage aftermath and long term animosity. See Ukraine.
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Mar 28, 2023 12:46
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Orange Devil posted:What the poo poo? My gf and I both work from home a lot and we switched over from gas heating to using an airconditioner for heating, aka using electricity for heating due to dumb sanctions and Nordstream blowing up making gas prices nuts and we still only expect to use around 3,000 - 3,500 kwh/year based on the past couple months of actual usage, which is also conveniently about what our solar panels generate in a year. How the gently caress do you use 6,000 kwh/year? when i was using my 13 year old aircon for cooling around 6 hours every day my mom and I were totalling only ~2500 kwh per year
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Mar 28, 2023 12:53
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stephenthinkpad posted:The goal is not to fight to win though, the goal is to create maximum damage aftermath and long term animosity. See Ukraine. But that is the thing, Taiwan is all about long range systems not ground combat. It about controlling the air and sea space, it isn't really a quagmire situtation like Ukraine simply because those conditions don't exist. Arguably they would exist in Korea, but honestly the South Koreans are sounding like they really really don't want to fight the North especially since the North keeps to be catching up against technologically. Japan simply isn't ready for war, and neither is the Philippines. In addition, the political circumstances in Taiwan seem pretty different than Ukraine as well. There is what DC wants and what actually exists and more often than not they don't have any relation to each other.
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Mar 28, 2023 12:54
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there is not going to be a "Ukraine scenario" for Taiwan because any armed conflict over the island is going to kill enough Americans to trigger a direct state of war between the PRC and the USA from the word-go
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Mar 28, 2023 12:59
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stephenthinkpad posted:The goal is not to fight to win though, the goal is to create maximum damage aftermath and long term animosity. See Ukraine. the thing about taiwan is that china can force the island into submission without a single pla soldier setting foot on it
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Mar 28, 2023 13:08
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Orange Devil posted:What the poo poo? My gf and I both work from home a lot and we switched over from gas heating to using an airconditioner for heating, aka using electricity for heating due to dumb sanctions and Nordstream blowing up making gas prices nuts and we still only expect to use around 3,000 - 3,500 kwh/year based on the past couple months of actual usage, which is also conveniently about what our solar panels generate in a year. How the gently caress do you use 6,000 kwh/year? It's the average across households. Plenty of lovely rental houses and apartments have next to zero insulation because the landlord doesn't give a poo poo about utilities if the tenants pay it themselves, and huge McMansion have whole lot of empty space inside to heat/cool up
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Mar 28, 2023 13:10
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Orange Devil posted:What the poo poo? My gf and I both work from home a lot and we switched over from gas heating to using an airconditioner for heating, aka using electricity for heating due to dumb sanctions and Nordstream blowing up making gas prices nuts and we still only expect to use around 3,000 - 3,500 kwh/year based on the past couple months of actual usage, which is also conveniently about what our solar panels generate in a year. How the gently caress do you use 6,000 kwh/year? welcome to america
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Mar 28, 2023 13:10
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Ardennes posted:But that is the thing, Taiwan is all about long range systems not ground combat. It about controlling the air and sea space, it isn't really a quagmire situtation like Ukraine simply because those conditions don't exist. Arguably they would exist in Korea, but honestly the South Koreans are sounding like they really really don't want to fight the North especially since the North keeps to be catching up against technologically. Japan simply isn't ready for war, and neither is the Philippines. In addition, the political circumstances in Taiwan seem pretty different than Ukraine as well. I think if you do a post mortem of the Russian 2022 initial offense, you can point out alot of mistakes and wrong gambles Russia side make, so basically the US pretty much dial in this handicap already because "systemic flew in totalitarian government's decision making process." Also you assume American elites make different long term strategic decision based on completely different geography of each regions, I don't think the Washington blob do that. Cerebral Bore posted:the thing about taiwan is that china can force the island into submission without a single pla soldier setting foot on it None of the US wargame discussion these scenarios (like the cheapest and most obvious option of doing an energy and shipping blockade, and commercial no fly zone).
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Mar 28, 2023 13:22
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stephenthinkpad posted:None of the US wargame discussion these scenarios (like the cheapest and most obvious option of doing an energy and shipping blockade, and commercial no fly zone). well gee, i wonder why 
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Mar 28, 2023 13:27
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but less facetiously, any us wargame or thinktank report or anything of the sort will always end up with the conclusion that even more money needs to be funneled into the mic grift e: i guess this is at least a large part of when you listen to western commentary the answer to every strategic problem today is always more weapons no matter whether said weapons will be useful or not, or indeed even delivered within the next few decades Cerebral Bore has issued a correction as of 13:51 on Mar 28, 2023 |
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Mar 28, 2023 13:30
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stephenthinkpad posted:I think if you do a post mortem of the Russian 2022 initial offense, you can point out alot of mistakes and wrong gambles Russia side make, so basically the US pretty much dial in this handicap already because "systemic flew in totalitarian government's decision making process." That is the thing, DC is making these plans but the ability for the US military to carry them out as politicians and think tankers desire doesn’t match up. The military (at least the competent parts) knows there are big issues going on, l and eventually there will be a have to be a discussion over what exactly can be done. Personally, I think it will simply be a silent retreat, possibly with more sending on Guam and a base in the Philippines: That said, I think the US for very overconfident (at least initially) of the blindness of the Kremlin, but at the same time they are also now stuck in this situation as well.
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Mar 28, 2023 13:56
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https://twitter.com/Somali_ICS/status/1640502013208166401?s=20
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Mar 28, 2023 14:32
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Egypt to issue bond in Yuan? Is anyone in Langley doing their job? Isn't Egypt the 2nd largest US military aid recipient after Israel?
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Mar 28, 2023 14:37
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stephenthinkpad posted:Egypt to issue bond in Yuan? Is anyone in Langley doing their job? Isn't Egypt the 2nd largest US military aid recipient after Israel? historically different parts of the us government have fought proxy wars against each other by accident, this poo poo's nothing
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Mar 28, 2023 15:07
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Alibaba's monopoly is getting busted https://twitter.com/business/status/1640655068184625153
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Mar 28, 2023 16:06
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stephenthinkpad posted:None of the US wargame discussion these scenarios (like the cheapest and most obvious option of doing an energy and shipping blockade, and commercial no fly zone). I think the U.S. is used to not knowing how no-fly zones work. People thought they could just impose one in Ukraine last year because they assume Russia would be forced to abide by it. They probably would think that if China was to run one around Taiwan, the USN could just run the blockade. It's a combination of the U.S. having previously run the no-fly zone in Iraq and Saddam was helpless to do anything about it, and being used to go wherever its navy wants since the Mahan days. They can't imagine any other country, not even Russia or China, challenging their control of sea and sky. stephenthinkpad posted:There are tons of people in Washington who want to replicate the Ukraine war in Taiwan because how "successful" it is to the US and how "cost efficient" it is, in comparison "terrible return" in Afghanistan. Every new weapon US is pedaling to Taiwan is in protract Ukrainian style war variety. Neverminded the Taiwan geography is completely different from Northern Europeans plate and nobody sits down and talk about how the Afghan collapse was so disastrous and "unpredictable" from the US side. Also completely different military cultures. Really do not think there are nationalist revanchist psychos in Taiwan these days like there are in Ukraine. Can't see random Taiwanese street brawlers just starting militias.
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Mar 28, 2023 16:22
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Danann posted:https://twitter.com/pretentiouswhat/status/1638757789119172608 it gets really loving cold there lol
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Mar 28, 2023 18:14
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Ghost Leviathan posted:Given a quick check on the map and I'd reckon a lot of that would be heating. Mexico City is at a MUCH higher elevation than HK so it's not a great comparison
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Mar 28, 2023 18:17
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yes the us assumes they will survive climate change better.
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Mar 28, 2023 18:22
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indigi posted:same. I'm assuming we all agree that since the decline/fall of the USSR the west has almost solely produced selfish, incompetent, myopic leadership. well, you need creative, open-minded leaders to avoid loving up incendiary geopolitical situations extremely badly uh absolutely I trust us leadership today would manufacture a Cuban Missile Crisis and almost end humanity the same way Kennedy did
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Mar 28, 2023 18:41
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he didn’t, though. these losers would
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Mar 28, 2023 19:03
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indigi posted:he didn’t, though. these losers would get out of here with this liberal bullshit. he was a drugged out rapist who put up a blockade of Cuba and almost started a nuclear war over a Soviet response to American escalation just because he didnt want to look like a pussy. he gets credit for the fact that the Soviet leadership was more sane and willing to lose face to avoid a nuclear holocaust than he was. the fact his generals were worse isnt an excuse. he was a dove as much as Nixon was a red
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Mar 28, 2023 21:21
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lol sure man
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Mar 28, 2023 21:22
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eSports Chaebol posted:get out of here with this liberal bullshit. he was a drugged out rapist who put up a blockade of Cuba and almost started a nuclear war over a Soviet response to American escalation just because he didnt want to look like a pussy. he gets credit for the fact that the Soviet leadership was more sane and willing to lose face to avoid a nuclear holocaust than he was. the fact his generals were worse isnt an excuse. he was a dove as much as Nixon was a red quoted for truth
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Mar 28, 2023 21:27
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looks like someone finally informed adrian zenz the uighurs aren’t the only muslims in china
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Mar 28, 2023 21:28
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