(Thread IKs:
fart simpson)
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Antonymous posted:changes like ditching the world reserve currency i think are like a phase transition - there's little movement as the pressure builds but once its critical there will be a snap realignment. its not going to be predictable Yeah its going to be like that Covid 2020 market crash. Everyone knows its coming; nobody knows when. Last country sticking to the USD will be one holding an empty bag (it's going to be Japan) crepeface posted:imo its that they've really abused the ability to seize foreign reserves lately. before russia, there was venezula's gold and guaido, afghanistan's reserves on the way out... there's probably a dozen smaller things that we don't see/can't remember. Outright seizing Iranian tankers like some pirateering bro. It's all fun and game when you bully the middle sized countries one-handed, and then you try to bully a UNSC member. If they want to expedite the process, just pass a new law to use the seized Russian foreign reserve to pay war reparation to Ukraine, set the clock ans see how fast the Saudis lose poo poo over it. stephenthinkpad has issued a correction as of 02:42 on Mar 30, 2023 |
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Mar 30, 2023 02:36
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https://twitter.com/AMFChina/status/1641084612473438209
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Mar 30, 2023 03:54
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oh god, they have more chen weihuas https://twitter.com/nomibwave/status/1641085453708464128?s=20
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Mar 30, 2023 04:15
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Unironically a great article, thank you for sharing.
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Mar 30, 2023 04:28
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crepeface posted:oh god, they have more chen weihuas "Once it's opened you'll know what cyberbullying really means"
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Mar 30, 2023 04:30
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https://twitter.com/tanvi_madan/status/1641246522644758529
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Mar 30, 2023 04:31
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crepeface posted:oh god, they have more chen weihuas hmm, that is weird
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Mar 30, 2023 04:34
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Hubbert posted:Unironically a great article, thank you for sharing. is this a trick!? a some guy TT tweet!?!
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Mar 30, 2023 04:43
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crepeface posted:oh god, they have more chen weihuas well
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Mar 30, 2023 04:59
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https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1641270745241366530?t=3Leir9QLVNXNV22FSigOTg&s=19 ... there's nuke development in the Philippines?
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Mar 30, 2023 07:16
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https://twitter.com/catcontentonly/status/1640571664059473923
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Mar 30, 2023 07:24
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crepeface posted:... there's nuke development in the Philippines? There was talk of lifting the constitutional ban on nuclear weapons earlier this month
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Mar 30, 2023 07:38
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As far as the US dollar goes, I would say the options are already becoming more limited, and the US can't simply print trillions without significant consequences and that doesn't even mean just devaluation versus the Euro. If you look at the dollar index, it has been taking some big drops with just the suggestion that the Fed is going to slow and eventually stop rate hikes. Why would they have to do this? In part because of an unstable banking sector, but also that yields on US bonds are already too high. If the US printed trillions right now as apart of a bailout, it would likely cause direct devaluation. There isn't much "give" in the system anymore because demand for dollars has clearly dropped.
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Mar 30, 2023 09:21
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webcams for christ posted:interesting interactive graphic from FT. with all the "American companies can't compete with Tiktok" discourse you'd think they were the only game in town, but it looks like YouTube remains even more popular, with Instagram not that far behind, and Snapchat still doing a lot better than I thought lol this is the most meaningless poll ever. literally doesn't tell ya anything thats not obvious like "its the current gen version of radio/TV/etc"
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Mar 30, 2023 09:25
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gradenko_2000 posted:There was talk of lifting the constitutional ban on nuclear weapons earlier this month There is a talk of nuclear deployment in Japan too. Why would they all say the same thing at the same time, obviously this is what US asked. Usually Asia has cooler head than Europe, so lets hope it doesn't develop into a NATO expansion problem.
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Mar 30, 2023 09:33
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australian is going to be so jealous that we just got subs instead of nukes
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Mar 30, 2023 10:01
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https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1641119037135683585?t=ZdVfCVbP_Fp5rvD9jNYhAA&s=19 lol even France now?!?
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Mar 30, 2023 10:01
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crepeface posted:https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1641119037135683585?t=ZdVfCVbP_Fp5rvD9jNYhAA&s=19 they're really mad over the u.s. stealing that nuclear submarine building contract
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Mar 30, 2023 10:05
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Oneiros posted:they're really mad over the u.s. stealing that nuclear submarine building contract there's also this crepeface posted:assuming Macron's recent visit to the US to beg them to stop eating the Euro didn't go well:
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Mar 30, 2023 10:30
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crepeface posted:there's also this Perhaps, Macron, the US's goals (make the US richer) do not, and should not, align with those of France and the EU just a thought
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Mar 30, 2023 10:33
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you'd think they had gotten the message when the u.s. blew up major energy infrastructure serving the continent
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Mar 30, 2023 10:38
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Oneiros posted:you'd think they had gotten the message when the u.s. blew up major energy infrastructure serving the continent looks like maybe they have
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Mar 30, 2023 10:40
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When French people finally vote the little banker out, he will be remembered as the guy waving the baguette.
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Mar 30, 2023 10:47
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crepeface posted:oh god, they have more chen weihuas china deploying the people's liberation army strategic ownage forces
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Mar 30, 2023 12:05
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Centrist Committee posted:my own personal take on crisis theory is that the savings and loan crisis ended the new deal era illusion of personal consequences for speculative behavior, the dot com era introduced the regime of zero interest rates, the subprime crisis formally transferred all remaining productive capacity to china, and the ongoing crises of the 2020s represent the collapse of the full faith and credit of the US. or in other words, finance capital continues to rout industrial capital. it doesn’t take a genius imo to look at a century of global underdevelopment on the one hand and the massive productive capacity of china on the other and see how blindingly obvious it is to cut out the parasitic imperial dollar regime serving as a middleman. it’s all very exciting to witness if you ask me Hilariously it will probably destroy the UK faster and harder than the US. Antonymous posted:changes like ditching the world reserve currency i think are like a phase transition - there's little movement as the pressure builds but once its critical there will be a snap realignment. its not going to be predictable Decades where nothing happens and weeks in which decades happen. Orange Devil has issued a correction as of 12:26 on Mar 30, 2023 |
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Mar 30, 2023 12:18
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Yes the undoing of dollar hegomony will crack the adjacent systems first before the dollar, so yens pounds and euros. 2023 can still see one more major bank failure like Deutsche Bank or whatever. The dollar system just have way more levers to transfer its own pressure to adjacent systems. People on r/geopolitics keep talk about yuan can't replace the dollar, the yuan doesn't want to replace the dollar. The current dollar system has huge overhead of the finance capital class, the yuan doesn't want to go that route.
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Mar 30, 2023 12:40
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Orange Devil posted:Hilariously it will probably destroy the UK faster and harder than the US. Well that's just kicking over a rotten dollhouse at this point.
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Mar 30, 2023 12:44
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stephenthinkpad posted:When French people finally vote the little banker out, he will be remembered as the guy waving the baguette. I hear people are constructing the Mademoiselle in cities all over France in reaction to the pension age changes, so maybe he'll be remembered for something else. stephenthinkpad posted:People on r/geopolitics keep talk about yuan can't replace the dollar, the yuan doesn't want to replace the dollar. The current dollar system has huge overhead of the finance capital class, the yuan doesn't want to go that route. Industrial politics about to make a huge comeback.
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Mar 30, 2023 12:44
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stephenthinkpad posted:Yes the undoing of dollar hegomony will crack the adjacent systems first before the dollar, so yens pounds and euros. 2023 can still see one more major bank failure like Deutsche Bank or whatever. The dollar system just have way more levers to transfer its own pressure to adjacent systems. it doesnt need to replace the dollar. there doesnt need to be exactly 1 world reserve currency
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Mar 30, 2023 13:01
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fart simpson posted:it doesnt need to replace the dollar. there doesnt need to be exactly 1 world reserve currency maybe there does as long as the world is at a capitalist state of development? otherwise you end up locked in a kind of meta-stable imperialist phase with monopolies dividing the world, which leads to giant wars that destroy capital, which keeps the world in a capitalist state, etc. i think maybe there needs to be a socialist hegemon controlling the world's reserve currency to prevent that. idk
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Mar 30, 2023 13:26
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Zodium posted:maybe there does as long as the world is at a capitalist state of development? otherwise you end up locked in a kind of meta-stable imperialist phase with monopolies dividing the world, which leads to giant wars that destroy capital, which keeps the world in a capitalist state, etc. i think maybe there needs to be a socialist hegemon controlling the world's reserve currency to prevent that. idk idk, the sterling system didn’t prevent ww1. the rising dollar system didn’t prevent ww2. the dollar system didn’t complete its takeover until like 30 years ago and it’s not like the world is all that peaceful as it is
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Mar 30, 2023 13:53
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Just use gold and oil and iron ore as basis of international trade. I have listen to a professor who argued if all nations work toward the goal of balanced trade with minimal deficit, it will make for a better world trade system.
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Mar 30, 2023 14:00
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stephenthinkpad posted:I have listen to a professor who argued if all nations work toward the goal of balanced trade with minimal deficit, it will make for a better world trade system. um excuse me how am I supposed to profit handsomely from a system where all nations are allowed to have "balanced" trade????
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Mar 30, 2023 14:05
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fart simpson posted:idk, the sterling system didn’t prevent ww1. the rising dollar system didn’t prevent ww2. the dollar system didn’t complete its takeover until like 30 years ago and it’s not like the world is all that peaceful as it is that's kind of what i mean: when capitalist states control the world currency there is nothing stopping a runaway imperialist process, which terminates in a giant war that destroys capital, which sets the stage for another go around, and maybe breaking out of that phase needs the process to be managed by a socialist hegemon controlling the world currency. i'm just musing here obviously. stephenthinkpad posted:Just use gold and oil and iron ore as basis of international trade. they can't do that because of capitalism tho
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Mar 30, 2023 14:09
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stephenthinkpad posted:Yes the undoing of dollar hegomony will crack the adjacent systems first before the dollar, so yens pounds and euros. 2023 can still see one more major bank failure like Deutsche Bank or whatever. The dollar system just have way more levers to transfer its own pressure to adjacent systems. It is also that the other systems are fairly soft themselves and there is only so far they can be pushed themselves. If anything, many currencies in the global south are holding up better than the ones in the West. The Yuan doesn't have to the dollar, and it doesn't even really need to "crack" but simply it has to get to the point where the West has to live within its means. At that point, its ability to shape world affairs is going to be radically reduced. Zodium posted:that's kind of what i mean: when capitalist states control the world currency there is nothing stopping a runaway imperialist process, which terminates in a giant war that destroys capital, which sets the stage for another go around, and maybe breaking out of that phase needs the process to be managed by a socialist hegemon controlling the world currency. i'm just musing here obviously. We are going to be stuck with some sort of capitalism one way or another for the future, the choice is if you end up with a system dominated by a select group of West countries (really run out of DC) or competing power blocks of state capitalists (depends on your perspective of the PRC) powers that know that some sort of stability is necessary. I don't know if the yuan replacing the dollar would be that great of an improvement either, if anything the world is better off without a dominate reserve currency even if the PRC is probably the preferable one in the lot.
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Mar 30, 2023 14:22
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Sorry for my ignorance, but what was the world trade currency system before ww2? Seem to be an obvious topic that nobody is talking about. I seem to remember all major nations switch to gold standard and Republic of China was still on silver standard. Did old sea trade use actual paper money or some kind of giant banknote as an analogue credit card?
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Mar 30, 2023 14:25
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stephenthinkpad posted:Sorry for my ignorance, but what was the world trade currency system before ww2? Seem to be an obvious topic that nobody is talking about. gradenko_2000 posted:The overarching theme I'm picking up from my recent readings is that, as you said, World War I was at least partially prompted by the stresses of imperial powers running out of easy land to colonize and bumping into each other, and deciding that going to war was the only way to establish to resolve the impasse. I don't know if Marx or Lenin ever wrote anything to specifically address the problem of (capitalist-controlled) states essentially acting as corporations seeking monopoly power, except states actually have armies with which to pursue violent action against their competitors, but I feel like they probably did.
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Mar 30, 2023 14:33
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stephenthinkpad posted:Sorry for my ignorance, but what was the world trade currency system before ww2? Seem to be an obvious topic that nobody is talking about. It was probably done with a combination of bullion and gold-backed notes. I know the Nazis even during the second world war had constructed trading submarines that were moving bullion back and forth but that perhaps is a bit more of a special case. ----------------- I think the decline of the USD is going to be continue to be a gradual process that will still have some explosive episodes. Right now for example, financial markets have priced in a sudden reversing of interest rates which is going to be very difficult with continued inflation and some subtle devaluation going on. It doesn't mean a true collapse but a reducing of options as certain amounts of spending are going to remain constant.
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Mar 30, 2023 14:36
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Keep in mind the soviet bloc was outside of the dollar system. I am not sure if India was in the dollar system since it had very socialist economy.
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Mar 30, 2023 14:38
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The Ruble was still pegged to the dollar even if it was a closed currency, so you could say it still rested on dollar hegemony to a certain extent. I think the Rupee was generally free floating but the Indian government had tried to tie it to some degree to the Pound.
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Mar 30, 2023 15:31
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