OctaMurk posted:

I don't think it says the number of ground vehicles lost for Ukraine, which annoys me regardless of the reality/unreality of this document. It has Russian Ground vehicles but only SAMs lost for Ukraine, show me the Ukrainian ground vehicles lost, what a silly comparison!!

Also I'm pretty sure Russia has confirmed more aircraft losses than 7 fighters and 8 helicopters so that doesn't make sense either

Also, combat sustainability of the two sides is both moderate when one side took literally five times as many KIA and ten times as many aircraft losses as the other?

Something is fishy as hell here yet the NYT confirmed that this leak is basically real so wtf is going on here

Frosted Flake posted:

"Military analysts said the documents appear to have been modified in certain parts from their original format, overstating American estimates of Ukrainian war dead and understating estimates of Russian troops killed."

"The modifications could point to an effort of disinformation by Moscow, the analysts said. But the disclosures in the original documents, which appear as photographs of charts of anticipated weapons deliveries, troop and battalion strengths, and plans,represents a significant breach of American intelligence in the effort to aid Ukraine."

"The Pentagon has not said publicly how fast Ukrainian troops are using the HIMARs munitions; the documents do."

1stGear posted:

An offensive towards Crimea seemed like a long shot before but if that document is even remotely accurate, trying to cross the Dneiper would be insane.

Comrade Koba posted:

it may not even have been intentional. could well be some security clearanced guy realizing he’s going to need to have quick access to the information in the coming days but doesn’t want to carry the wad of papers around with him (the folding makes it look like someone had it in his pocket). then he realizes “hey, I could just take pictures of it and have it on my phone. genius!”

Comrade Koba posted:

it may not even have been intentional. could well be some security clearanced guy realizing he’s going to need to have quick access to the information in the coming days but doesn’t want to carry the wad of papers around with him (the folding makes it look like someone had it in his pocket). then he realizes “hey, I could just take pictures of it and have it on my phone. genius!”

Vernii posted:

So basically it gets leaked or stolen by Russian intelligence, they get the valuable info from it, modify parts of it, then release it onto TG as a "leak" for public and media to focus on the easily digestible parts (casualty counts) as a way to upset the narrative. Basically a pretty smart dual-purpose opsec breach and psyop.

ianmacdo posted:

Its the tone deafness that gets me. Like when they report about China killing one of their billionaires. Like that's a bad thing that anyone should feel bad about? Its just crazy and tone deaf.

Nuclear War posted:

The amount of times I've had to yell at soldiers for doing this exact thing is astronomical. it happens all the time. Or taking pictures of clearly marked SECRET or TS briefing notes on a screen "because i cant remember all that"

Vernii posted:

This part here that everyone is glossing over would explain the weird comparisons and undercount vs what the Russians have even admitted losing:

So basically it gets leaked or stolen by Russian intelligence, they get the valuable info from it, modify parts of it, then release it onto TG as a "leak" for public and media to focus on the easily digestible parts (casualty counts) as a way to upset the narrative. Basically a pretty smart dual-purpose opsec breach and psyop.

fits my needs posted:

lol

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Ok, let's see how the offensive goes then.

Vernii posted:

But yea I really doubt the Pentagon thinks the Russians have lost less aircraft than the Kremlin has admitted to.

izagoof posted:

possibly just someone getting stupid and overzealous though

Vernii posted:

So basically it gets leaked or stolen by Russian intelligence, they get the valuable info from it, modify parts of it, then release it onto TG as a "leak" for public and media to focus on the easily digestible parts (casualty counts) as a way to upset the narrative. Basically a pretty smart dual-purpose opsec breach and psyop.

izagoof posted:

a bear, a puma, or a sable

Neurolimal posted:

So in this theory, why would Russia use a different lost number than what they themselves are using

Is the person who modified the document The Riddler, they just cant handle having a perfect crime & need to leave behind OSINT crumbs

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Oh come on.

Vernii posted:

- Everything else on that paper is the real value

- undermines the NATO narrative on the war.

- its dense information that requires context and expertise to understand.

- This isn't targeted at the OSINT crowd,

Boat Stuck posted:

someone run the photos through one of those websites that detects whether an image has been photoshopped or not based on compression artifacts and whatever

Vernii posted:

Do you actually think the Russians have lost only eight helicopters in a year+ of war?

Frosted Flake posted:

Frosted Flake posted:

"Military analysts said the documents appear to have been modified in certain parts from their original format, overstating American estimates of Ukrainian war dead and understating estimates of Russian troops killed."

"The modifications could point to an effort of disinformation by Moscow, the analysts said. But the disclosures in the original documents, which appear as photographs of charts of anticipated weapons deliveries, troop and battalion strengths, and plans, represents a significant breach of American intelligence in the effort to aid Ukraine."

"The Pentagon has not said publicly how fast Ukrainian troops are using the HIMARs munitions; the documents do."

Vernii posted:

Adds perceived authenticity

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Yeah I was fully ready to write it off as kremlin nonsense until the nytimes came right out and said it was real before it even hit the nightly news cycle.

euphronius posted:

is the Canadian military bi lingual or do they tell the French to get hosed

Frosted Flake posted:

I think the White House NYT one-two punch did that

e: troop and battalion strengths are legit, and we can see Ukraine's million man army isn't, and they're totally dependant on western equipment - raising the question what happened to everything else?

There's your casualties.

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Yeah I was fully ready to write it off as kremlin nonsense until the nytimes came right out and said it was real before it even hit the nightly news cycle.

Vernii posted:

Do you also think the Russians have lost only 7 aircraft and 8 helicopters?

Tankbuster posted:

https://twitter.com/VonClownsewitz/status/1644090262916935681?cxt=HHwWgsC9vcTY_dAtAAAA
the replies are something else in the linked tweet lol.