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What is the most powerful flying bug? This poll is closed. |
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|---|---|---|---|
| 🦋 |
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15 | 3.71% |
| 🦇 |
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115 | 28.47% |
| 🪰 |
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12 | 2.97% |
| 🐦 |
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67 | 16.58% |
| dragonfly |
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94 | 23.27% |
| 🦟 |
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14 | 3.47% |
| 🐝 |
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87 | 21.53% |
| Total: | 404 votes | ||
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Ukraine is covered in SAM sites and everyone has been wondering this entire war where the gently caress the Russian air force is supposed to be. The obvious answer is at home, safe in the hanger because artillery are cheaper and less risky. Or are we supposed to believe that the ghost of kiev shot them all down.
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Apr 7, 2023 03:50
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Vernii posted:Do you also think the Russians have lost only 7 aircraft and 8 helicopters? I'm sure they'll turn up somewhere.
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Apr 7, 2023 03:53
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Ukraine is covered in SAM sites and everyone has been wondering this entire war where the gently caress the Russian air force is supposed to be. this would explain a lot of things
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Apr 7, 2023 03:54
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If the ghost of kiev is an ace, that means the whole rest of the Ukrainian air force has only shot down 2 other planes. smh guys, pick up the slack
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Apr 7, 2023 04:00
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Horseshoe theory posted:Can't lose a war if you don't acknowledge defeat! *taps head* "Ukraine? Never heard of it sonny jim. Now the Greater Polish Commonwealth, which is one of our administration's great success stories, I can certainly help you with."
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Apr 7, 2023 04:09
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CODChimera posted:Who would possibly leak that info and why? wouldn't the most likely outcome be to spread misinformation about plans and capabilities before a counter-offensive? this is like by-the-book information operations
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Apr 7, 2023 04:10
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Vernii posted:So basically it gets leaked or stolen by Russian intelligence, they get the valuable info from it, modify parts of it, then release it onto TG as a "leak" for public and media to focus on the easily digestible parts (casualty counts) as a way to upset the narrative. Basically a pretty smart dual-purpose opsec breach and psyop. We've already seen in this thread the losses count image with flipped numbers for Ukraine and Russia, so both sides are already doing this psyop.
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Apr 7, 2023 04:10
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:the U.S / ukraine it can't be an information operation, the nytimes said it was true!! 
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Apr 7, 2023 04:11
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:the U.S / ukraine poo poo, it could be this. Edit: If so neither of the totals are real. Cpt_Obvious has issued a correction as of 04:34 on Apr 7, 2023 |
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Apr 7, 2023 04:12
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Vernii posted:lol at trusting the NYT
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Apr 7, 2023 04:14
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like... c'mon you IDIOTS also there's this line in that article "the leak is a big coup for moscow." if it really was, i suspect the NYT wouldn't have mentioned it at all. or they would've said it's fake russian stuff. the western media reports facts, like: there was a leak. but it fits the facts into a narrative, and selectively emphasizes the facts it wants to emphasize, and deemphasizes (or ignores) facts contrary to the narrative it wants to push. one such fact that it might *not* want to mention is that the information in the leaked documents are part of an operation to "shape" the information environment before an offensive about the plans, direction, capabilities that will be brought to bear. undercount the russian losses to get it viral on Z telegram channels because it confirms what those guys wanna hear. then when the NYT asks about it, or when they're tipped off about it, say "we're gravely concerned, it's a serious leak." at least that's my theory. but i dunno. 
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Apr 7, 2023 04:16
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Oh look, something bad for Ukraine has entered the twittersphere and a little fash worm has crawled out of the woodwork to poo poo up the thread again. Every single time, it's remarkable.
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Apr 7, 2023 04:17
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it's legit because vernii is malding about it (and should return to gbs)
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Apr 7, 2023 04:18
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https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1644139100407054336?s=20 Although I can't see a higher resolution image of the whole document with the KIA more favorable to Ukraine. I'm not looking into this more. War bad folks. Horizon Burning posted:it's legit because vernii is malding about it (and should return to gbs) 
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Apr 7, 2023 04:26
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lol were there really plans to invade russia
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Apr 7, 2023 04:28
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Frosted Flake posted:I think the White House NYT one-two punch did that Ukraine does have a million man army, but they are all too busy with ethnic cleansing.
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Apr 7, 2023 04:28
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lol it’s telling that as an Arty O I had none of the Prussian schooling on decisive manoeuvre because I’m still not tracking: 1) Ukraine throws an armoured spearhead at Crimea 2) Ukraine achieves some sort of limited territorial gains 3) ???? 4) Russia surrenders the rest of Ukrainian territory, which Ukraine could not possibly hope to gain militarily, particularly after destroying its army How does this short term victory change the long term outlook, especially once they destroy their army in the process? Ukraine doesn’t have long term prospects, but a short term victory gains western support for more aid, which keeps the war going, which Ukraine… still loses in the long term? This could be on me. I also don’t understand how capturing Antwerp would lead to the defeat of the Western Allies. The lowball Ukrainian KIA is insane considering their own reported disparity in firepower. Conversely that ratio maps pretty closely onto what the Ukrainians say the Russian advantage in shells and artillery is. Since 80-90% of casualties would be caused by it, it having a corresponding relationship is infinitely more likely than the first-ever inverse one. Frosted Flake has issued a correction as of 04:33 on Apr 7, 2023 |
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Apr 7, 2023 04:30
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Slavvy posted:Oh look, something bad for Ukraine has entered the twittersphere and a little fash worm has crawled out of the woodwork to poo poo up the thread again. Every single time, it's remarkable. Every single time like clockwork. Me, furiously managing a distributed thousand bot sock puppet network, "I will control the narrative. I WILL control the narrative. I will." "Oh poo poo I accidentally posted copypasta on my SA main. I'll try and write it off as ironic posting, that should do it."
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Apr 7, 2023 04:32
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Frosted Flake posted:lol it’s telling that as an Arty O I had none of the Prussian schooling on decisive manoeuvre because I’m still not tracking: I think South Park explained it with the underpants gnomes joke: Step 1: Gather underpants Step 2: ??? Step 3: Profit! The Ukraine strategic battle plan is along those same lines.
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Apr 7, 2023 04:34
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Unless you believe in human waves with shovels, how does the side outshooting the enemy 20:1 - 6:1 by the loser’s own reports suffer greater casualties?
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Apr 7, 2023 04:35
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Frosted Flake posted:Unless you believe in human waves with shovels, how does the side outshooting the enemy 20:1 - 6:1 by the loser’s own reports suffer greater casualties? fields full of military-grade rakes
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Apr 7, 2023 04:36
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Frosted Flake posted:Unless you believe in human waves with shovels, how does the side outshooting the enemy 20:1 - 6:1 by the loser’s own reports suffer greater casualties? That's in "Step 2: ???"
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Apr 7, 2023 04:36
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Frosted Flake posted:Unless you believe in human waves with shovels, how does the side outshooting the enemy 20:1 - 6:1 by the loser’s own reports suffer greater casualties? Orc mischief
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Apr 7, 2023 04:39
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all i know is this PROVES the government needs to be able to step in and keep us from sharing such dangerous disinformation
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Apr 7, 2023 04:44
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Frosted Flake posted:Unless you believe in human waves with shovels, how does the side outshooting the enemy 20:1 - 6:1 by the loser’s own reports suffer greater casualties? they had the invincible chinese WJQ-308 shovels
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Apr 7, 2023 04:44
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lol this loving war dude
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Apr 7, 2023 04:46
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https://twitter.com/snekotron/status/1644158771155935233?s=20 I wish there was a way to just view whole threads 147 guns of mixed calibres to support a war winning offensive. That wouldn’t cover the opening barrage, typically, so I’m extremely curious what the arty staff’s work says. The shells Ukraine reportedly uses per day are probably less than the opening hour of covering a 9 brigade operation. The smoke shells alone for engineers to start clearing and marking lanes would be in the hundreds. Idk seems bad. Frosted Flake has issued a correction as of 04:52 on Apr 7, 2023 |
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Apr 7, 2023 04:48
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:the U.S / ukraine thats if its fake yeah. if its real then who would have leaked it? and people answered that it might not have been on purpose or someone disillusioned with the war in conclusion: we dont know poo poo
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Apr 7, 2023 04:48
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yeah see I think the problem is these is blood axe orcs, which are brutally cunning, whereas the other orc warbands prefer a more cunning brutality
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Apr 7, 2023 04:51
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Vernii posted:Do you actually think the Russians have lost only eight helicopters in a year+ of war? I think it's possible America can only confirm 8 helicopters destroyed. Frosted Flake posted:I'm going to screenshot it so I don't get a sixer for you thinking this is coming out of my mouth: This idiot thinks a tiger has spots!
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Apr 7, 2023 04:53
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Disagree hard with this point too https://twitter.com/snekotron/status/1644159527581888513?s=20 https://twitter.com/snekotron/status/1644159592232894467?s=20 Whole thing: concerns the validity of the leaks, and as of now even the NYT has come out and stated it appears to be authentic, apart from the edited casualty box. What this series of pages illustrates is the state of NATO's operational planning. /2 The documents are dated D+370, or the end of February, 1 year and 5 days since the start of the SMO. I'm going to list some of my observations. The most important part, obviously, concerns the upcoming Ukrainian offensive. /3 The nominal strength of the 9 brigades built up for this offensive is stated as 253 tanks, 381 IFVs, 480 APCs, and 147 artillery. However, much of this armor is listed "TBD" as in not yet arrived or repaired maybe. /4 By the end of April, they expect to have on hand 43 T-64, 38 T-72, 31 Twardy, 28 T-55S, 32 Leo 2A4, 14 Leo 2A6, 14 Challenger 2, 14 AMX-10. Another 53 listed TBD. First thing that jumps out is that Ukraine's prewar T-64s are almost all gone. /5 Ukraine also burned through the bulk of its armor deliveries last year, since they are now waiting on old new stock T-72s and PT-91 Twardys shipped from Poland. Many of the TBDs might be filled by Leo 1s, it's unclear. /6 As of the timing of this document, the beginning of March, however, these units were just beginning to be formed, with training rates of 0% (one brigade is 60% trained, and another 40%) and equipment rates of 30-60%. /7 Training seems to be highly accelerated. For the Leopard 2s, training is about 6 weeks. They may hope to be getting better results transitioning existing tankers to new tanks, but it's unclear. Many old AFU tankers died with their tanks. /8 The mainstay of the mobile artillery is the M119, with some AS-90s, but most of the brigades here surprisingly use towed artillery. 155mm FH70 but also D-30. I do not think they have adequeate supplies for the D-30 to offer much more than token fire. /9 Looking at each brigade's inventory, I do not believe them to be actual brigade sized formations. A US Stryker brigade typically has ~300 strykers alone, and that's before adding other vehicles, with a manpower complement of 4,500 men. /10 Here, each of these Ukrainian brigades has 90 IFV/APC and ~30 tanks. I'll be surprised if the manpower strength exceeds 2000. This whole grouping of 9 brigades is likely only to have 15-20k men. However, this isn't the entire force. /11 Ukraine is supposed to supply another 3 brigades internally, so if we are being optimistic, maybe another 10k. Pessimistic, 5k. Whole offensive force 20-30k. We don't have visibility into the composition of those internal brigades. /12 Lack of visibility into Ukrainian formations is actually something that plagues this report, and it corroborates something that some have suspected for a while - that old units are just being left to bleed out while new formations are generated. /13 Moreover, it appears that Ukraine's mobilization numbers, as I have stated consistently for months now, are bullshit. The numbers just don't bear that out. In Zaporozhye, Russian personnel are assessed at 23,250 and Kherson 15,650. Donetsk 23,050. /14 These surprisingly small numbers illustrate the difficulty, as I've been noting, of Russia's frontline force generation and how many troops are apparently being held in rotation or reserve. However, it gets interesting with Ukrainian numbers. /15 Donetsk: 10-20k, Zaporozhye 4-8k, Kherson 1250-2500. There is a huge range of uncertainty of what the state of attrition in the current frontline brigades is. Moreover, there is no accounting, like with Russian side, of which Ukrainian brigades are combat capable. /16 It's like NATO builds these units, sets them loose on the front, and they disappear into a black box that is the Ukrainian General Staff and the SBU. They do not know what the combat capability of these units is so they must form new ones. /17 The combat losses, which have unfortunately been manipulated by Russian social media, are a good example of this black box effect. The original stated 35.5k-43.5k KIA on the Russian side and 16k-17.5k KIA on the Ukrainian side. /18 The Russian number of killed generally align with some of the more pessimistic estimates (within reason, including LDPR and wagner losses), but the Ukrainian loss stats are just a copy paste from the Ukrainian General Staff. Nonsensical. /19 Just in the Mariupol-Volnovakha battles, a Ukrainian agglomeration of 15k+ disappeared to death and capture, not to say anything about the thousands who died in Severodonetsk or the fields of burned Ukrainian vehicles outside of Kherson. /20 The fact that Ukrainian brigades are now almost entirely dependent on foreign equipment and basically regiment-sized speaks to attrition over the course of a year of war. You don't send people out with a month of training (per this document) if one is avoiding losses. /21 The lack of internal intelligence points towards something I and others like @AniaKoniec have been saying - that this is Zelensky's war, and Ukraine is in the driver's seat. The US wasn't making poo poo up when they say the Ukrainans don't tell them much. /22 @AniaKoniec No greater example of this is the admission that the SBU's goons violate orders to launch terrorist attacks, like the bombing of the airbase in Belarus. In addition, some of the items in the document suggest they only find out these things after Russia reports it. /23 @AniaKoniec It is Z-cope at this point to suggest that Kiev is irrelevant and that all the decisions are being made in Washington. It is meant to give Ukraine a way out for negotiations, but as I said from the start, Zelensky needs this war more than anyone. /24 @AniaKoniec And they are psyopping the world to give them the money and weapons for their national baptism of blood. If NATO really believes this crap, despite already the visual evidence of multiple random graveyards with thousands of AFU graves, no wonder. /25 @AniaKoniec Also, one last point. The docs give the total GMLRS expenditure as 9,612 and 155mm expenditure as 952,856. Over the last 7 days an average of 14 and 2,746, respectively. This rate of fire is anemic, and the west is not going to be able to scale up soon. /26 @AniaKoniec Which also leads to a point I have been saying over the last few months, that the biggest problem to solve is the one of war industry. Russia just needs to fully staff its production - more ammo, more drones, more bombs. VKS bombing with glide bombs is uncounterable. /27 @AniaKoniec If this war is going to be one of two drunk boxers swinging bananas at each other, the one with the bigger bananas will win. The battlefield math does not favor the side with the weaker industry here. The questions for Russian civil society are for another day. /28 END Frosted Flake has issued a correction as of 04:59 on Apr 7, 2023 |
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Apr 7, 2023 04:56
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lol ok now the weird edited numbers make sense, they probably just pulled the pre edit originals from wherever isw gets their info is that sort of document something where you’d want to gloss over or omit uncertain info to avoid bad decision making? or is it more of a PowerPoint like mckinsey makes to tell you what you already wanted the conclusion to be?
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Apr 7, 2023 05:01
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Also, yeah that tweet brought something to my attention - what the gently caress?  I realize they killed their own top negotiator, but “intelligence agents violated orders and attacked a neutral country” is concerning.
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Apr 7, 2023 05:06
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Frosted Flake posted:The numbers don't align with Russian MoD reports of their own aviation loses, which is kinda weird. I mean, if this is a daily or weekly report, I wouldn't be surprised if the estimates for other side casualties were off but undercounting enemy losses is funny. my guess is that it’s YTD E: welp or not Raskolnikov38 has issued a correction as of 05:15 on Apr 7, 2023 |
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Apr 7, 2023 05:07
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Slavvy posted:Oh look, something bad for Ukraine has entered the twittersphere and a little fash worm has crawled out of the woodwork to poo poo up the thread again. Every single time, it's remarkable.
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Apr 7, 2023 05:16
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Frosted Flake posted:Also, yeah that tweet brought something to my attention - what the gently caress? it would explain why the sbu keeps burning assets just to bomb random telegrammers and nobodies over making a go at shoigu or putin or prizgozhin
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Apr 7, 2023 05:18
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Apr 7, 2023 05:33
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Well now I'm going to assume the leaks are an intentional move by the US government to back away from supporting Ukraine. Late but yeah i can't imagine this is anything but political distancing regardless of the source I couldn't help but think that from the moment i saw it was the NYT that confirmed it
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Apr 7, 2023 05:45
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Frosted Flake posted:I wish there was a way to just view whole threads https://en.rattibha.com/thread/1644158771155935233 was about to recommend threadreader but it's not working atm
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Apr 7, 2023 05:52
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Well now I'm going to assume the leaks are an intentional move by the US government to back away from supporting Ukraine. Friendship with Ukraine cancelled Now Finland is my new friend
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Apr 7, 2023 06:17
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