Isentropy posted:

this means « do you think the opposition won’t just use their own nuclear weapons » right

skooma512 posted:

A tech gap is just an excuse for more embezzlement.

Turds in magma posted:

Lol at whatever convoluted metric they made up but that list is total nonsense, Iran is in no way in the top ten of highest quality research (just picking one example of why that list is BS)

Bar Ran Dun posted:

Krugman is writing about the Russian energy withdrawal being a failure.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/06/opinion/putins-energy-natural-gas.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

quote:

think.ing.com
Aluminium smelter shutdowns threaten Europe’s green transition
Ewa Manthey
7–9 minutes

Another aluminium smelter in Europe is shutting down amid the ongoing threat posed by high energy prices. Since the start of the energy crisis, European aluminium output has fallen by more than half. These closures could also prove to be an obstacle to Europe’s green transition

High energy prices remain a threat to supply

Aluminium producer Speira said it will shut down its German plant Rheinwerk this year due to the challenging energy market. Last September, the producer reduced capacity by 50% at the plant amid surging power prices. Speira said it will now focus solely on recycling and processing aluminium into value-added products.

Soaring energy costs following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have squeezed producers’ margins, with energy-intensive metals being particularly affected.

Several output cuts have taken place since December 2021 at key European smelters. Europe had suspended about 1.4 million tonnes of capacity by the end of 2022, accounting for 2% of the global total.

Aluminium, often referred to as “congealed electricity”, is the most energy-intensive base metal to produce, requiring about 40 times more energy to make than copper. One tonne of aluminium requires about 15 megawatt-hours of electricity.

Falling energy costs in Europe have recently eased fears of a deep recession. TTF prices broke below EUR50/MWh in February, the lowest level seen since August 2021 after reaching an all-time high of EUR345/MWh in August 2022.

So far, only Aluminium Dunkerque has announced a restart of its curtailed capacity of 60kt/y in France. The plant is expected to be operating at full capacity by the end of May, following support from the French government.

But in the aluminium industry, restarting a smelter is a long and costly process, meaning some of the production halts we have seen since 2021, could be permanent.

According to the latest data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), Western European aluminium output was at an annualised 2.73 million tonnes in December, down by 540,000 tonnes from December 2021 and the lowest production rate this century.

Aluminium requires about 40 times more energy to make than copper

Production costs still too high for many smelters

While LME aluminium prices have fallen by 40% since reaching historic highs a year ago, production costs remain too high for many aluminium smelters in Europe.

Electricity is the largest single expense for producers, typically accounting for about 40% of production costs.

LME aluminium prices reached a high of $3,849/t in March but have now declined from their post-invasion peaks, battered by fears of weakening global demand, as well as a stronger dollar. Growing recession risks in the US and Europe and an uncertain recovery in China is likely to continue to pose downside risks to the demand outlook.

We still believe, with the war with Russia raging on and given the uncertainty over the gas market in 2023, smelters will be reluctant to bring back production too quickly. Further smelter closures and curtailments in production cannot be ruled out given the uncertainty over energy prices throughout this year.

Any announcement of further closures could see aluminium prices spike but any potential rallies are likely to be unsustainable. We don’t anticipate European smelters restarting before 2024.

Last month, Norsk Hydro warned that the market remained challenging for aluminium smelters despite a recent drop in power prices and that a further 600,000 tonnes of aluminium capacity would still be at risk if energy prices spiked again.

European aluminium smelters hit by margin squeeze

Primary Aluminium Production in Western and Central Europe (mt)
Source: IAI, ING Research
IAI, ING Research
Aluminium smelting cost components
Source: IAI, CINA, ING Research
IAI, CINA, ING Research
Smelter shutdowns threaten Europe’s climate target path

The most recent aluminium smelter shutdown comes at a time when Europe is trying to become more self-sufficient following Russia’s war in Ukraine. The more smelters shut down, the more reliant the region becomes on more expensive imports from more carbon-intensive suppliers, including China and Russia.

European smelters generate three times less CO2 than those in China, where coal is most often used to generate electricity.

Under the European climate target path, EU countries must cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030, setting Europe on a path to becoming climate neutral by 2050.

Aluminium is a key component in mobility and transport, buildings, construction, packaging, aerospace, and defence. It is also used in almost all energy generation, transmission, and storage technologies, particularly those that will deliver the energy transition, such as wind and solar power, alternative fuel cells, hydrogen production, high-voltage cables, and batteries.

As a result, Europe’s 2030 energy transition will require four million tonnes of additional aluminium per year, rising to almost five million tonnes in 2040, equivalent to 30% of Europe’s aluminium consumption today, according to European Aluminium.

The highest growth in terms of absolute demand is expected to come from the transportation sector amid a shift to electric vehicles (EVs). By 2026, aluminium content per vehicle will rise by 12% to meet the needs of future hybrid vehicles and EVs, according to the Aluminium Association.

Aluminium’s usage in batteries and other EV components will double automobile manufacturers’ consumption of aluminium by 2050, according to forecasts from IAI.

Satisfying the increased demand via imports instead of producing in Europe would generate at least an additional 40 million tonnes of CO2 yearly, according to European Aluminium, equivalent to the yearly CO2 emissions of a country like Finland.

Earlier this year, Eurometaux, the European metals industry’s main lobbying group, representing major European producers, including Glencore, Boliden and Aurubis, warned that further long-term financial support is needed to help Europe keep control of raw materials that are crucial to the green-energy transition.

The European Commission is due to publish this week the Critical Raw Materials Act, which will attempt to lessen the dependence on non-democratic states and boost European autonomy to ensure the EU has access to materials needed to meet the bloc’s target of moving to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

The regulation is part of Europe’s answer to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which offers $369bn of subsidies to green-tech manufacturers and has prompted several multibillion-dollar investments into US battery manufacturing.
Europe relies on aluminium imports
Source: European Aluminium, ING Research
European Aluminium, ING Research

quote:

BASF is cutting back in Germany
Alexander H. Tullo
3–4 minutes
BASF's site in Ludwigshafen, Germany.

Credit: BASF

BASF is stopping ammonia, caprolactam, and toluene diisocyanate production at its site in Ludwigshafen, Germany.

High energy prices have already struck a blow to European competitiveness in chemical manufacturing. They are now prompting BASF to lay off thousands of workers and shut down sections of its flagship facility in Ludwigshafen, Germany.

The company, the world’s largest chemical maker, revealed the closures when it announced 2022 financial results on Feb. 24. Sales increased 11%, to $92.5 billion, but this was because of higher selling prices. The company’s sales volumes declined by 7% last year.

BASF posted a loss of about $660 million for the year, mostly owing to charges of $6.7 billion related to its decision to withdraw its Wintershall Dea oil and gas affiliate completely from Russia. Without those charges, the firm’s profits would have been roughly flat compared to 2021.

The war in Ukraine has sharply reduced natural gas supplies in Europe and boosted BASF’s energy bill on the continent by $2.9 billion in 2022. In Germany, overall chemical industry production decreased by 12% last year.

“The past year has taught us all a harsh lesson: peace and economic stability must never be taken for granted,” BASF chairman Martin Brudermüller said in remarks to stock analysts.

Along with its earnings announcement, BASF detailed a round of cost cutting, outlined last October, aimed at saving more than $500 million annually. As part of the program, BASF says it will shed about 2,600 positions, 2.3% of its global total. The program, which BASF will execute this year and next, will focus on nonmanufacturing operations such as services, administration, and R&D.

In addition, BASF is rolling out measures, focused on Ludwigshafen, meant to save another $200 million annually or more.

The company is closing one of two plants in Ludwigshafen that make ammonia, the largest consumer of natural gas as a raw material at the site. It is also shutting downstream nitrogen fertilizer facilities.

BASF is closing a plant making caprolactam, the key raw material for nylon 6. The caprolactam business had seen a buildup of capacity in recent years, especially in China, and the sharp rise in European energy prices put additional pressure on the business, BASF says.

Similarly, the company is reducing capacity for the nylon 6,6 raw material adipic acid and is shutting plants that make the adipic acid precursors cyclohexanol and cyclohexanone. And it is shutting capacity for soda ash, which relies on by-products from the adipic acid chain.

BASF is also closing plants that make toluene diisocyanate and its precursors dinitrotoluene and toluene diamine. Demand for the polyurethane raw material has been weak in Europe, the company says.

In all, BASF estimates that closures in Ludwigshafen will affect some 700 workers and reduce the replacement value of the complex’s assets by 10%. The closures will also reduce BASF’s global carbon dioxide emissions by 4%, the firm says.

Chemical & Engineering News

ISSN 0009-2347

Copyright © 2023 American Chemical Society

quote:

ft.com
Explosives shortage threatens EU drive to arm Ukraine
Henry Foy, Guy Chazan, Barney Jopson
5–7 minutes

Europe’s push to make arms for Ukraine has been hobbled by a shortage of explosives, which industry insiders fear will delay efforts to boost shell production by as much as three years.

Scarce supplies of gunpowder, plastic explosives and TNT have left industry unable to rapidly meet expected EU orders for Ukraine, regardless of how much money is thrown at the problem, according to officials and producers.

The supply chain constraints underline how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has badly exposed Europe’s inadequate arms stocks and weak domestic production capacity, run down by decades of under-investment.

“The fundamental problem is that the European defence industry is not in good shape for large-scale war production,” said one German official.

Europe is trying to meet Kyiv’s war fighting needs by pumping cash into the defence sector, particularly to encourage expansion of 155mm artillery production. There is dire need for shells, both to restock national armouries and maintain supplies to Ukrainian forces.

But producers, industry executives and EU officials warn increased demand may only push up prices that have already jumped a fifth over the past year.

“It’s very difficult to increase production of artillery ammunition, especially the heavy, large-calibre ammunition, in a short time,” said Jiří Hynek, chair of the Defence and Security Industry Association of the Czech Republic. “A new artillery factory is very easy, but how to produce more artillery projectiles without raw materials?”

The comments come ahead of a meeting of EU foreign and defence ministers in Brussels on Monday to discuss a package of two €1bn proposals to speed up immediate 155mm shipments to Ukraine and incentivise countries to form joint artillery purchase contracts.

Defence industry officials say Europe has a limited supply of explosives such as gunpowder, TNT and nitrocellulose which are necessary to produce shells. “The bottlenecks for our capacity are mainly [explosive] powders, which are in short supply all over Europe,” said one.

“It’s not possible to increase, in a short time, nitrocellulose [production] . . . In Europe there are no important producers of the raw materials we need,” said Hynek, referring to a main ingredient of gunpowder. “If I want to increase production of gunpowder I need probably three years.”

Explosia, a Czech state-owned manufacturer that is one of Europe’s largest suppliers of explosives to ammunition factories, told the FT that its production of propellants used in 155mm artillery is “running at full capacity” and would not be increased until 2026.

“Investments are under way to further increase our production capacity, but this is a three-year project, not a few months’ job,” said Martin Vencl, the company’s spokesperson.

This week Romania’s government said it was in talks with US and South Korean companies to build a gunpowder factory in the country. Its last such plant was shut down in 2004.

Even EU officials who have championed the financial incentive packages privately admit that European artillery producers have made clear to them that scaling up output will not be an easy task.

“We’re in favour of strengthening the defence industry. But if the result of this EU initiative is that you have a second bidder for the same scarce resource, that will have an impact on price,” said one German official. “And the arms companies are getting rich enough already.”

“We have to tread with care . . . No one wants to subsidise companies that are already coining it in,” he added.

Fábrica Municiones de Granada (FMG), one of Spain’s two 155mm artillery producers, has been operating at full capacity since last October, producing shells for a trading company that sells them on to Ukraine. But Antonio Caro, FMG’s director-general, said it had taken four-to-five months to scale up because of the difficulty of obtaining basic materials and components.

“Our main problem is primary materials,” Caro said. “Supplies for ammunition are very strained around the world because all the factories, like us, are at 100 per cent.”

“There aren’t too many factories [producing materials like TNT and nitrocellulose] in Europe and they’re at 100 per cent too, so we have to start looking in India, in Korea, in other countries further away,” he said.

Gianclaudio Torlizzi, an adviser to Italy’s defence ministry, agreed, saying: “We need to find new sources of supply . . . from countries we had not traditionally approached,” he said. “Each European country wants to protect its availability of raw materials.”

The cost of basic materials had “doubled and in some cases tripled”, Caro said. Those increases and the surge in demand had led to higher prices for munitions, although the rise has been less pronounced. A typical shell today costs €850, roughly 20 per cent more than before the Russian invasion, he said.

For now FMG, which is owned by Slovak group MSM, has no plans to increase capacity further. “Hopefully the war will be over soon,” Caro said.

MSM also produces 155mm shells in Slovakia and said it “plans to build a new production hall” to increase artillery output, but declined to provide a timeline.

Additional reporting by Raphael Minder in Warsaw and Amy Kazmin in Rome

Danann posted:

yeah the us will lose ww3 because they have no loving clue how to even examine their own political economy's situation

Bar Ran Dun posted:

the long term trend is going to be falling US oil consumption. I think this may be the last time something like cutting off the gas to Europe might have worked. and doing it has only accelerated it’s future ineffectiveness.

Danann posted:

https://think.ing.com/articles/aluminium-smelter-shutdowns-threaten-europes-green-transition

https://cen.acs.org/business/finance/BASF-cutting-back-main-site/101/web/2023/02

https://www.ft.com/content/aee0e1a1-c464-4af9-a1c8-73fcbc46ed17

Danann posted:

https://think.ing.com/articles/aluminium-smelter-shutdowns-threaten-europes-green-transition

https://cen.acs.org/business/finance/BASF-cutting-back-main-site/101/web/2023/02

https://www.ft.com/content/aee0e1a1-c464-4af9-a1c8-73fcbc46ed17

yeah those primary resource production firms are going to be able to run on fairy fumes that is simultaneously available and cheap as russian pipeline gas they're just shutting down production for funsies

Frosted Flake posted:

Guess where the fertilizer that was used to produce explosives and propellant came from? Three guesses.

Delta-Wye posted:

i assume greek bulk shippers with spotty record keeping? and we're not going to ask any additional follow-up questions?

Bar Ran Dun posted:

FYI in 08 a lot of the Greek owners and operators were pushed out on the bulk side and vessels got bought by international banks. it’s come back a bit. But it’s still not what it used to be.

and no those aren’t the ships that would be doing it any way. they have western hull underwriting. public companies now do satellite tracking of vessels. marine traffic 100% still knows where ships are even if they (the ship) turn off the AIS. shenanigans that worked in that past don’t fly anymore.

Cpt_Obvious posted:

I'm sorry, why are the Russians bragging about a fire proof fuselage? Is that not standard on military aircraft? Because it sounds really important.

genericnick posted:

Obviously if you wanted to know you could. But do you?

Frosted Flake posted:

Guess where the fertilizer that was used to produce explosives and propellant came from? Three guesses.

yellowcar posted:

time to go back to the age old tradition of scooping bat guano out of caves

Frosted Flake posted:

Apparently there's over 100 but the Pentagon has requested links be blocked on social media and twitter and Meta have complied. Anyone know where to look? I am deputizing you all in the service of Charles III, so it's totally fine.

Now, if the original was a month ago, whatever, but this new, bigger leak in the same news cycle, could they be cutting Ukraine loose?

Palladium posted:

i think they only authenticity of them is how ukies are gonna get the shaft

Frosted Flake posted:

The Moderate Sustainability apparently means Ukraine has 6 months to live, which - I hate to give it to the Prussians, but Todesfahrt and Letzter Würfelwurf vindicated, and would fit with them getting hosed over.

Very optimistic reporting though, using Oryx numbers and Ukrainian claims for Russian casualties. I don't believe the reported artillery strength and losses for a minute. If you plot that against the ammunition expenditure, what the hell are the Ukrainian guns doing all day?

Russia


Ukraine


It claims Ukraine has more tubes 2:1 in theatre.

galagazombie posted:

I dunno I don’t see them building any new nuclear plants.

Frosted Flake posted:

Raskolnikov38 posted:

lol israel