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Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.
Crimea, the true "Thug Shaker Zone"

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cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Title was changed 3 hours ago, thanks.

Coquito Ergo Sum
Feb 9, 2021

I was going to suggest "Generalplan Rust" but it seems in poor taste.

Comstar
Apr 20, 2007

Are you happy now?

spankmeister posted:

This timeline I swear to god

If this is our generations Operation Fortitude I'm going to be very disappointed. The History Channel documentary on it is going to be...weird.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Moktaro posted:

My name is Lucca, I live on the 2nd floor
I posted lots of secret files, now they won't let me out any more
lol (also you’re old)

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007
Probation
Can't post for 5 hours!

Coquito Ergo Sum posted:

I was going to suggest "Generalplan Rust" but it seems in poor taste.

Keep me out of it thanks

buglord
Jul 31, 2010

Cheating at a raffle? I sentence you to 1 year in jail! No! Two years! Three! Four! Five years! Ah! Ah! Ah! Ah!

Buglord
Crimea talk but slightly different: completely independent of whether or not Ukraine can/cannot/intends to take back the Crimean peninsula, how has Ukraine managed since the seizure of it in 2014? Several YouTube videos/lectures on the war that I’ve watched have placed various levels of importance in that area, from critical to less immediate, but is Ukraine somehow neutered if they were to never get that back?

poor waif
Apr 8, 2007
Kaboom

buglord posted:

Crimea talk but slightly different: completely independent of whether or not Ukraine can/cannot/intends to take back the Crimean peninsula, how has Ukraine managed since the seizure of it in 2014? Several YouTube videos/lectures on the war that I’ve watched have placed various levels of importance in that area, from critical to less immediate, but is Ukraine somehow neutered if they were to never get that back?

It's a loss of territory and population, both problematic economically. Worse than that, it is a location that is much less sustainable if disconnected from the Ukrainian mainland, which is partly why it was placed under Ukrainian administration in the first place.

The Russian perspective appears to be that without the land bridge through Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Donetsk, Crimea is in a tenuous position militarily and infrastructure-wise. If Ukraine were to cede just Crimea to Russia, Russia would have lots of reasons to keep interfering with Ukraine in order to establish that land bridge to secure permanent communications with Russia.

Prior to 2014, this was resolved through a formal lease of the Black Sea fleet bases. That isn't really possible anymore.

Athas
Aug 6, 2007

fuck that joker
Is there a place on these forums where the Americans don't go and the leaks can be discussed in detail?

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Athas posted:

Is there a place on these forums where the Americans don't go and the leaks can be discussed in detail?

It's an American website, meaning that you'll need to get a bit creative to find a place where Americans don't go. That said, my decision to discourage people from making this a wikileaks thread is mine and applies just here, and so you may fare better in, e.g., GBS or C-SPAM threads. I simply remember the talks we had around the time PoW videos began rolling in, and these leaks I don't consider particularly paramount to be posted all over this thread, as they still are random JPEGs from the Internet. Random, even if the circumstantial evidence is adding up to something similar leaking from the Pentagon.

As far as I'm concerned, the discussion on them can happen in disregard of my preference to see topics linked. It is a newsworthy topic, even if I have my reservations about the quality of material, and the fact that there seem to be multiple versions of some of the files circulating around already (in addition to.the dull number swap).

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Athas posted:

Is there a place on these forums where the Americans don't go and the leaks can be discussed in detail?

:ssh:
https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3954051

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
On that note, WSJ has a very good article detailing what's known: subject matter of documents, where they came from, official responses, etc:
https://mobile.twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1644459346200256512

quote:

In addition to documents pertaining to the war in Ukraine, the leaked files included purported copies of the daily intelligence report provided to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Mark Milley, Central Intelligence Agency reports on leaders of Israel’s Mossad spy service, and intelligence on discussions within the government of South Korea on sales of artillery ammunition to Kyiv. Most of the documents are dated in February and appear to have been posted online shortly after their creation. Many contain details of future operations.
I gotta wonder about access-controls on some of this stuff, and if someone is urgently buying tickets out of the country right about now....

Edit: I am not sure they accurately portay document travel racist discord -> meme discord -> Minecraft map discord, but that's probably not that important for the topics covered....

OddObserver fucked around with this message at 12:57 on Apr 8, 2023

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

Might be some kid leaking mom's/dad's documents from the study/laptop. Would explain the Discord angle.

If this had been an intentional leak it would probably have been released through some media organization like a newspaper or wikileaks.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




OddObserver posted:

On that note, WSJ has a very good article detailing what's known: subject matter of documents, where they came from, official responses, etc:
https://mobile.twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1644459346200256512

I gotta wonder about access-controls on some of this stuff, and if someone is urgently buying tickets out of the country right about now....

Edit: I am not sure they accurately portay document travel racist discord -> meme discord -> Minecraft map discord, but that's probably not that important for the topics covered....

I think the portrayal makes sense in terms of how “confirmed” the path is, as you're dealing with some real alleyways of Internet poo poo here. Also, I think it's a minor detail compared to DoD leaking intel cables about Israel and South Korea. Everyone in that vertical of work is about to have an extremely bad time.

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?
I don't think age is a great indicator of Discord use. Source: I'm in my 40s.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1644682219825373184

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013





Your comment, please.

Comstar
Apr 20, 2007

Are you happy now?

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Your comment, please.

How wide is it? A straight line trench like that is more likely to be an anti-tank ditch. How many roads did it cut through if it's unbroken for 70km(!)?


Who am I kidding, someone got paid money to dig a trench with no consideration of it's usefulness for infantry.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Your comment, please.

That seems like a lot of trench.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Yeah. Big trench, huh?

Alternate thought: take a look at this invading army’s big trench.

Moon Slayer fucked around with this message at 15:03 on Apr 8, 2023

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Comstar posted:

How wide is it? A straight line trench like that is more likely to be an anti-tank ditch. How many roads did it cut through if it's unbroken for 70km(!)?


Who am I kidding, someone got paid money to dig a trench with no consideration of it's usefulness for infantry.

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

That seems like a lot of trench.

I'm reminding Moon Slayer of the changed expectations for sharing links.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Pretty sure the Ukrainians have bulldozers, so that's gonna be a speed bump at best?

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Apparently, there's a scoop from the Times that UAF had a failed amphibious assault to free ZNPP in last October. This sounds reckless as gently caress. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/04/8/7397000/

quote:

...

According to The Times, on the night of 19 October, about 600 Ukrainian troops in 30 boats packed with weapons, including heavy machine guns, MK-19 grenade launchers and anti-tank weapons, attempted to land on the left bank of the Dnipro.

"The idea was that this would be an infantry-only battle. They wouldn’t be able to use artillery against us, as this is a nuclear plant," the newspaper quoted one of the military as saying.

However, the newspaper writes that the Ukrainian army soldiers did not expect such serious resistance.

"The Russians had built a very dense defence, they had mined everything. When we were approaching, they even pulled up tanks and artillery and started firing at us right on the water." the Ukrainian soldier said.

"As special forces speedboats crossed a stretch of river nearly three miles wide, precision Himars rockets provided by the US smashed into Russian positions on the riverbank (...) A handful of the Ukrainian special forces teams in smaller boats managed to make it to the shore as dawn broke, engaging the Russians in a three-hour firefight on the outskirts of the town of Enerhodar, which adjoins the plant. The main force was unable to land, however," the newspaper writes.

...

Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Apparently, there's a scoop from the Times that UAF had a failed amphibious assault to free ZNPP in last October. This sounds reckless as gently caress. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/04/8/7397000/

Seems just that it never really got started properly even, basically a probing attack that got quickly called off when the initial assumptions (Russians wouldn't use heavy equipment near the plant) didn't hold up. I don't see why the Ukrainians shouldn't have explored this possibility.

Randarkman fucked around with this message at 15:41 on Apr 8, 2023

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

cinci zoo sniper posted:

I'm reminding Moon Slayer of the changed expectations for sharing links.

Oh, I was just making an observation. It's a loving lot of trench.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Apparently, there's a scoop from the Times that UAF had a failed amphibious assault to free ZNPP in last October. This sounds reckless as gently caress. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/04/8/7397000/

I recall a report of the Russians getting ridiculed for claiming that they'd driven off an attempted amphibious assault at ZNPP. Their claimed target was a concrete pier or something.

Fake edit: Found it. Dated September 14, so not the same event.

I wonder if Ukraine tried it specifically because of the fake one earlier.

ETA: Here's another one, dated October 12. Maybe that is an accurate one.

Deteriorata fucked around with this message at 15:43 on Apr 8, 2023

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Deteriorata posted:

I recall a report of the Russians getting ridiculed for claiming that they'd driven off an attempted amphibious assault at ZNPP. Their claimed target was a concrete pier or something.

Fake edit: Found it. Dated September 14, so not the same event.

I wonder if Ukraine tried it specifically because of the fake one earlier.

ETA: Here's another one, dated October 12. Maybe that is an accurate one.

The Times piece seems to be point at October 19, but this tracks, and could be a fog of war/source OPSEC thing. Or a probing attempt before the big thing a week later.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Randarkman posted:

I don't see why the Ukrainians shouldn't have explored this possibility.

Shooting near nuclear plants is a stupid idea, saying as someone who has had to study nuclear reactor design. Don't take this from just me either, take this from the director of Energoatom, a Ukrainian state enterprise responsible for ZNPP, telling Pravda in the linked piece that it was a stupid idea, and the occupying force there should just get starved when it comes down to it.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Besides that, even if you succeed you're in a hard to supply position.

Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!

GABA ghoul posted:

Might be some kid leaking mom's/dad's documents from the study/laptop. Would explain the Discord angle.

If this had been an intentional leak it would probably have been released through some media organization like a newspaper or wikileaks.

Discord hasn't been "for kids" for ages now. It's even starting to replace free/open source software discussion groups in Slack. And I know some PhDs who had to use Discord for online conferences during the pandemic lockdown.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




https://www.ft.com/content/bdd8c518-bf10-4c9c-b53b-bfbe512e2e92

A UK-registered company has been caught shipping like $1bn worth of sanctioned semiconductors and high-tech electronics to Russia since February 2022, with their business “suddenly” booming in 2022. Going to be a good test of the UK actually putting its money where its mouth is.

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer
Article is pay walled, does it name the company?

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

I checked to see if Medveded's Twitter rant was posted here, but I didn't see it.

https://twitter.com/MedvedevRussiaE/status/1644669039095037953

WHY WILL UKRAINE DISAPPEAR? BECAUSE NOBODY NEEDS IT

I never expected to see publicly declared genocide on a social media platform. Dima rants that nobody in the world needs Ukraine, including Ukraine, and the sooner it can be wiped off the face of the Earth, the better everyone else will be. I would like to know what inspired him to rant like that, other than the bottle permanently attached to his hand.

Qtotonibudinibudet
Nov 7, 2011



Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

Boris Galerkin posted:

Discord hasn't been "for kids" for ages now. It's even starting to replace free/open source software discussion groups in Slack. And I know some PhDs who had to use Discord for online conferences during the pandemic lockdown.

the average meme youtuber channel, however, is probably comfortably in mostly zoomers territory

that said giving your kid your classified materials laptop to chat on seems profoundly stupid and unlikely. doubly so since the docs are paper copies that someone took pics of. if anything got taken home and left around where the kids could find them, it was probably those. what idiot with legit access to classified docs just casually snaps phone pics of them and uploads those to their home computer?

Popete posted:

Article is pay walled, does it name the company?

the typical paywall circumvention site is offline today, but there's still good ol' other publications reposting stories from whomever got the scoop originally https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/04/07/british-firm-ships-12bln-of-electronics-to-russia-despite-sanctions-ft-a80753

Mykines Corporation LLP, some no-name solar power company registered to an (ostensibly) Ukrainian national and/or his wife, apparently. their website is also (albeit for likely different reasons than the paywall circumvention site) currently offline (https://mykinessolar.com/about-us.html) and so irrelevant that Wayback Machine has no record of it. Bing has a very basic cache: https://cc.bingj.com/cache.aspx?d=4889373818444149&mkt=en-US&setlang=en-US&w=LbinDoO0S3mvblCAp-LFUXzWuQXEMOJO

they straight up have no DNS A records at present, and basically nothing comes up trying to search for either historical news coverage or site history. best i can find is some place claiming they used to be hosted at some Hong Kong shared hosting outfit that currently returns a 404 if you force resolve the domain to that IP: https://ipinfo.io/103.27.108.60

im not saying it's definitely some Russian security services front co, but it looks odd, to say the least

yet one more edit: damnit, if only i could channel my somewhat capable digital forensics autism mania into more useful, consistent work

Qtotonibudinibudet fucked around with this message at 18:18 on Apr 8, 2023

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Popete posted:

Article is pay walled, does it name the company?

It does. Mykines Corporation LLP, based in Enfield, London. A broad range of brands hauled into Russia through China – AMD, Apple, Huawei, H3C, Intel, Samsung, and others.

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

It’s cool that Elon added a feature to let people post their entire nazi screed in one tweet

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

I would like to know what inspired him to rant like that, other than the bottle permanently attached to his hand.

I really think it's just this indeed, alcoholism fuelling his attempts to re-/build reputation with the hardliners in the Kremlin circles.

Edit: To clarify though, posting screeds like this should make him responsible for their contents regardless of the purpose or the circumstances of his posting.

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 17:59 on Apr 8, 2023

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

cinci zoo sniper posted:

I really think it's just this indeed, alcoholism fuelling his attempts to re-/build reputation with the hardliners in the Kremlin circles.

Edit: To clarify though, posting screeds like this should make him responsible for their contents regardless of the purpose or the circumstances of his posting.

I wonder who he is trying to impress/get out of trouble with and if he posted this as a drunken tirade it's been online for hours and as the internet works, forever.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

cinci zoo sniper posted:

I really think it's just this indeed, alcoholism fuelling his attempts to re-/build reputation with the hardliners in the Kremlin circles.

Edit: To clarify though, posting screeds like this should make him responsible for their contents regardless of the purpose or the circumstances of his posting.

Speaking of which, according to Telegraph (YES, I KNOW) Twitter has recently removed the algorithm restrictions it put on Russian government accounts one year ago. Which is good for freedom of speech, I'm sure. Twitter has also been blocking access to Canadian critics of PM Modi from India so that should also be the next logical step for critics of Putin.

https://kyivindependent.com/telegraph-twitter-lifts-restriction-on-putins-official-account/

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cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

I wonder who he is trying to impress/get out of trouble with and if he posted this as a drunken tirade it's been online for hours and as the internet works, forever.

I feel he's been getting a lot of fresh poo poo for Libya in the recent year. Then, on the flip side, rumour goes his wife left in early 2022. If both check out, could simply be aimlessly lashing out at poo poo in a meltdown way.

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