|
I mean in the 2020 election specifically, for the record. Genuinely wondering, I vaguely remember some significant demographic swings but can't recall the specifics.
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 09:56
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 01:01 |
|
|
Ghost Leviathan posted:I mean in the 2020 election specifically, for the record. Genuinely wondering, I vaguely remember some significant demographic swings but can't recall the specifics. College educated suburbs.
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 11:05
|
|
|
Ghost Leviathan posted:I mean in the 2020 election specifically, for the record. Genuinely wondering, I vaguely remember some significant demographic swings but can't recall the specifics. I was wrong. I said white women, turns out white men shifted more. Trump gained with White Women... Here is a Pew Research report with the numbers. quote:Biden made gains with suburban voters. In 2020, Biden improved upon Clinton’s vote share with suburban voters: 45% supported Clinton in 2016 vs. 54% for Biden in 2020. This shift was also seen among White voters: Trump narrowly won White suburban voters by 4 points in 2020 (51%-47%); he carried this group by 16 points in 2016 (54%-38%). At the same time, Trump grew his vote share among rural voters. In 2016, Trump won 59% of rural voters, a number that rose to 65% in 2020. Mooseontheloose fucked around with this message at 12:29 on Apr 9, 2023 |
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 12:21
|
|
|
Mooseontheloose posted:I was wrong. I said white women, turns out white men shifted more. Trump gained with White Women... So, 2020 was the inflection point where our cohort can no longer hind behind boomer numbers to explain political losses. Good to know.
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 13:38
|
|
|
AlternateNu posted:So, 2020 was the inflection point where our cohort can no longer hind behind boomer numbers to explain political losses. Good to know. I mean, yes and no. They are still 48% of the vote but the number is declining. I mean, its interesting that the Democrats despite losing in 2022 are outperforming the last few midterms.
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 13:48
|
|
|
Mooseontheloose posted:I mean, yes and no. They are still 48% of the vote but the number is declining. I mean, its interesting that the Democrats despite losing in 2022 are outperforming the last few midterms. Well, 'losing' because things are gerrymandered so much the democrats need a +5 advantage just to have parity. If districts were zoned neutrally they would probably have a permanent house majority.
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 13:53
|
|
|
The key will be to see if Millenials slide more Republican or stay hard Democrat. They moved from +25 for Clinton to +19 for Biden. Now that’s still a large margin, but it’ll be a problem if it keeps sliding. 2012 saw Millenials vote for Obama around +20, so right now there really isn’t a trend, and hopefully it stays that way. If Millenials stay +20, we’ll see Dems start winning by big numbers. Big If though.
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 14:03
|
|
|
Bird in a Blender posted:The key will be to see if Millenials slide more Republican or stay hard Democrat. They moved from +25 for Clinton to +19 for Biden. Now that’s still a large margin, but it’ll be a problem if it keeps sliding. 2012 saw Millenials vote for Obama around +20, so right now there really isn’t a trend, and hopefully it stays that way. If Millenials stay +20, we’ll see Dems start winning by big numbers. Big If though. The issue with Millennials isn't that they'll slide more to the right, the issue is Democrats sliding more to the right and Millennials disengaging because of that. The Dems absolutely have to have a progressive platform in order to keep them.
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 14:05
|
|
|
Young Freud posted:The issue with Millennials isn't that they'll slide more to the right, the issue is Democrats sliding more to the right and Millennials disengaging because of that. The Dems absolutely have to have a progressive platform in order to keep them. I think that will happen eventually, as more and more Boomer dems leave and more and more gen-x and Millennials come into true power. The average age of the Senate is what...72? The house is a bit younger but there are a lot of structural issues involved that prevent progressive or even moderate dems from getting elected. Also Biden was not exactly a very exciting candidate. I voted for him and worked for his campaign, but not out of any great excitement to get _him_ in, but more to get Trump out. I would have volunteered and voted for a cheese sandwich rather than Trump. Cimber fucked around with this message at 14:11 on Apr 9, 2023 |
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 14:08
|
|
|
Cimber posted:.... more and more gen-x ... come into true power. i kept reading a bunch of think pieces saying Gen X has swung hard right over the last 10 years
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 14:14
|
|
|
Young Freud posted:The issue with Millennials isn't that they'll slide more to the right, the issue is Democrats sliding more to the right and Millennials disengaging because of that. The Dems absolutely have to have a progressive platform in order to keep them. It's this. I've never been more apathetic about going to vote and I've been able to do so since 2008. I do it out of bitter obligation just so I feel like I have my say against the Republican in the election at that time, but also knowing that even if the Democrat wins, there isn't going to be any significant change for the better when all they do is cave to any amount of conservative bluster. Unlike me, though, a lot of Millennials have just given up. I know quite a few people who just don't bother voting anymore, especially here in Indiana where left voices literally never get heard. This is why my hopes are higher about Gen Z reaching voting age. At the very least, they're not bitter and jaded yet, and I feel like there will be a significant leftward shift as boomers drop off. So long as they're allowed to vote in the upcoming election. aBagorn posted:i kept reading a bunch of think pieces saying Gen X has swung hard right over the last 10 years This, too.
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 14:18
|
|
|
Charlz Guybon posted:There's been a 10 point pro-dem swing in most races since the Dobbs ruling. The general attitude I have seen is both parties suck or it wont affect me so I'm not voting, now that the dog has caught the car its been chasing there is plain as can be proof that at least one republican policy goal will negatively impact them or someone they care about. Thats why many including myself thought the republicans would keep Roe V Wade while campaigning against it as a wedge issue, because they knew how much it would motivate people against them if they did get it struck down.
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 14:19
|
|
|
Bird in a Blender posted:The key will be to see if Millenials slide more Republican or stay hard Democrat. They moved from +25 for Clinton to +19 for Biden. Now that’s still a large margin, but it’ll be a problem if it keeps sliding. 2012 saw Millenials vote for Obama around +20, so right now there really isn’t a trend, and hopefully it stays that way. If Millenials stay +20, we’ll see Dems start winning by big numbers. Big If though. Don't seem to be moving that way. https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/03/millennials-radicalism-not-getting-more-rightwing-with-age Generations that went through a lot of poo poo when young becomr pretty fixed in place. Greatest Generation voted dem from the 40s until they died.
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 15:04
|
|
|
aBagorn posted:i kept reading a bunch of think pieces saying Gen X has swung hard right over the last 10 years That makes me ill, but considering what we saw when we were growing up I'm not terribly surprised.
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 15:07
|
|
|
I could be wrong because I’m just guessing here but with republicans leaning in culture wars poo poo I feel like you’ll get fewer people voting solely for them for lower taxes etc as they get older since they see the other bullshit that’s the real agenda But maybe that supposed shift never really existed to begin with and has always just been excuse for people who favored republican policies from the beginning
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 15:07
|
|
|
aBagorn posted:i kept reading a bunch of think pieces saying Gen X has swung hard right over the last 10 years Is there any data to back this up? When I look at presidential elections, gen x has always hung around the 50/50 mark, and that wasn’t any different in 2020 when they just barely favored Biden.
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 15:16
|
|
|
IMO the shift isn't "you get more conservative as you get older (with the assumption that age=wisdom or some other nonsense) it's that you tend to get more conservative the richer/wealthier you get and that typically happens as you age almost by default. Or rather, it did. The reason you see Silents and Boomer and Xers racing republican as they age is because they were able to take advantage of the postwar economic conditions and amass wealth as they aged, becoming more in line with right wing issues on fiscal policy. Some of them even ended up drinking the social issues kool aid. Millennials aren't amassing wealth. As we age into our 40s a lot of us are struggling the same way we were in our 20s (and posting on the same dead gay comedy forums) and so the fiscal policies of the Republicans aren't the "foot in the door" they used to be for right wing talking points to take hold. Bird in a Blender posted:Is there any data to back this up? When I look at presidential elections, gen x has always hung around the 50/50 mark, and that wasn’t any different in 2020 when they just barely favored Biden. the main thing i saw was poll numbers from NBC news (not as good as actual votes but it's something)  
aBagorn fucked around with this message at 15:24 on Apr 9, 2023 |
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 15:18
|
|
|
Levitate posted:I could be wrong because I’m just guessing here but with republicans leaning in culture wars poo poo I feel like you’ll get fewer people voting solely for them for lower taxes etc as they get older since they see the other bullshit that’s the real agenda There was a whole plague in the 80s-90s that focused on killing younger men with a likelyhood based mostly on being cool. Survivor bias is one hell of a trick when you can policy-outcome who survives.
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 15:19
|
|
|
aBagorn posted:IMO the shift isn't "you get more conservative as you get older (with the assumption that age=wisdom or some other nonsense) it's that you tend to get more conservative the richer/wealthier you get and that typically happens as you age almost by default. Yep this is how I see it. Home ownership is a big one, owning a home basically helps tie you into the entire economic system and pushes people into seeing everything through the lens of well all these other things are important, but how can my vote most help ensure that I can sell my home at an inflated value to ensure my retirement/pass some on to my kids. If I vote Democrat, they might push for policies that could lower my home value!
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 15:22
|
|
|
Zeron posted:Yep this is how I see it. Home ownership is a big one, owning a home basically helps tie you into the entire economic system and pushes people into seeing everything through the lens of well all these other things are important, but how can my vote most help ensure that I can sell my home at an inflated value to ensure my retirement/pass some on to my kids. If I vote Democrat, they might push for policies that could lower my home value! That may be true, but when you attain homeownership likely also matters. There's a fair bit of research showing that a cohort's political opinions solidify pretty early in life based on current events at the time. I expect that as a result, a cohort becoming homeowners at 25 has a much larger effect than the same cohort becoming homeowners at 40. Anecdotally, the only thing that changed when my husband and I (both very late millennials) bought a house is that we got to start our crazed emails to the board of supervisors about defunding the police and building train communism with "as a homeowner..."
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 15:56
|
|
|
Framboise posted:It's this. SpeedFreek posted:The general attitude I have seen is both parties suck or it wont affect me so I'm not voting, now that the dog has caught the car its been chasing there is plain as can be proof that at least one republican policy goal will negatively impact them or someone they care about. Thats why many including myself thought the republicans would keep Roe V Wade while campaigning against it as a wedge issue, because they knew how much it would motivate people against them if they did get it struck down. The bolded parts pretty much describe me, a millennial who graduated college towards the beginning of the recession, 2009. I feel things need to change, and fast, but one side actively wants to make things worse, and the other is reluctant to make things better. Couple this with the fact that I live in Rhode Island, I genuinely feel like my vote has no value at the federal level because of the electrical college. Without the EC I could at least take comfort on knowing that my dem vote could counter some chud's vote in the south. But thanks to EC the only way my vote means anything is if my vote is the one that is needed to send RI's 4 EC votes to the federal level, and then, it only matters is if those 4 are enough to tip the vote to the majority. And since RI tends to go Dem each election anyway, that makes my vote mean even less. I still voted for Biden, but that was more a vote against Trump. Hell, I wanted to vote for Bernie, but because of super Tuesday and the way the primary is structured, by the time it came for RI to vote, it was pretty much just Biden (if there was even something to vote on by the time it came to us. Dunno if there is still a vote held if everyone else drops out.) E: to be clear, I still vote (definitely for state stuff), it just feels like my vote doesn't actually mean anything at the federal level. Velocity Raptor fucked around with this message at 16:06 on Apr 9, 2023 |
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 16:03
|
|
|
I'd be interested to see the effect that becoming a parent has on political alignment. One thing that's going on with Gen X in the stats is that, with some millennial exceptions, the parents who are freaking the gently caress out about their kids' schools turning them into gay trans homos are largely Gen X. Irrational parental freakouts, over the years - Greatest - Communists Silents - Satan Boomers - Gays Gen X - Trans Millennial - Uhhh... screen time? Can't wait to find out! Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 16:18 on Apr 9, 2023 |
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 16:15
|
|
|
Mellow Seas posted:
Hopefully communists again, it'd mean we're actually a threat.
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 16:20
|
|
|
Mellow Seas posted:I'd be interested to see the effect that becoming a parent has on political alignment. Furries. We're already seeing that freakout, although for now it's more just a branchoff from the general anti-LGBT hysteria. Also don't be fooled into thinking that we can't go backwards on this.
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 16:31
|
|
|
Fister Roboto posted:Furries. We're already seeing that freakout, although for now it's more just a branchoff from the general anti-LGBT hysteria. I don't think furries were ever seen as the bullet in the head of all that is good and decent like the other things were. I think that at worst, they're seen as creepy perverts, but I don't think they generally get lumped into the Groomers category like the main LGBTQ+ body. They usually stop the furry comparisons at the "They put a litterbox in the classroom because someone said they identify as Garfield" lie.
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 16:34
|
|
|
the_steve posted:I think that at worst, they're seen as creepy perverts, but I don't think they generally get lumped into the Groomers category like the main LGBTQ+ body. Also, unlike trans people, Disney actually is responsible for furries! 
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 16:38
|
|
|
All the millennial parents I know are freaking out about Charter Schools being a drain on our public school system. Admittedly a pool of two is too small for charting any broad trends.
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 16:48
|
|
|
Mellow Seas posted:I'd be interested to see the effect that becoming a parent has on political alignment. The Greatest Generation's freak-out was Nazis and Fascists. The Silents would be Communists, the Boomers would be Satanic Panic. Gen X feels like it's more the Government than Trans people. Yawgmoft posted:All the millennial parents I know are freaking out about Charter Schools being a drain on our public school system. Honestly, this is the best thing to be freaked out at. Charter Schools are a plight and just a reintroduction to school segregation.
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 16:48
|
|
|
We already had the furry panic, it happened across the internet and on these very forums in the 00s Then the furries learned that they should keep their sex lives in the bedroom like everyone else and it died down Unlike most LGBT identities, only a very small subset of furries wants to be openly furry in public 24/7, so it's harder to point at them and scream
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 16:52
|
|
|
Millennials will probably be freaking out about polyamory
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 16:58
|
|
|
The fact that Millennial voting rates have increased predictably with age, and in fact in the last few generations even faster than age would predict, suggests that people in that cohort giving up on voting are serious outliers. It's not just that they're voting at higher rates as time passes, but since 2016 they've been voting at higher rates than Gen X did at that age and generally showing a lot of enthusiasm about it. Age-related voting rates explain lots of other shifts too. Gen X, even more than most generations, is transitional. The older half, mostly in their 50s, is politically closer to boomers and came of age when Reagan was the hot new thing, and the younger half, mostly in their 40s, are closer to millennials and came of age when the political choice was between "both parties are the same, why should I get involved" and "both sides are just equally extreme, why should I get involved" and the first could still pass the laugh test. It's not really surprising that they have their most conservative on the leading edge of voting rates for multiple reasons.
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 16:59
|
|
|
Young Freud posted:The Greatest Generation's freak-out was Nazis and Fascists. The Silents would be Communists, the Boomers would be Satanic Panic. Gen X feels like it's more the Government than Trans people. Satanic Panic started in the 80s, so figure the concerned parents tended to be 30-50 years old (usually parents start freaking out about these things when their kids are a bit older and they feel like they're losing control over them, so somewhere around 6-16 depending on the family.) That means they would've been mostly born between the early 30s and mid-50s, so boomers definitely got in on that action, yeah. But I do think the late 90s gay acceptance backlash was the main event for boomer parents, peaking in the 2000 election (top exit poll issue was "moral values") and 2004 election, when boomers were in their 40s and 50s and their kids were teenagers or entering young adulthood. White Gen Xers were also the first generation to not grow up being explicitly told that they were inherently better than darker skinned people, but they were still implicitly told that, and I think some of them grew very resentful of that eventually. It's never really gone away (largely because there's so much truth to it) but the 90s were kind of the peak of the "black people are cooler than white people" cultural meme, and I think a lot of Gen X took that poo poo the wrong way.   Obviously generational classification is a bunch of hooey but it's fun to play with the numbers. Papercut posted:Millennials will probably be freaking out about polyamory Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 17:10 on Apr 9, 2023 |
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 17:00
|
|
|
The Furry community had a serious internal reckoning a few years back where the hard-right was trying to recruit them as a group and they ended up fighting back hard. There was a whole time period with Nazi furries. Recruiting isolated outcasts based on their anger is kinda the right's thing. Fortunately for us all, furries policed their own and told fascists to get hosed coming down hard on non-inclusive ideologies. My thoughts are they realized they would be allies of convenience and the first against the wall when push came to shove.
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 17:29
|
|
|
Velocity Raptor posted:The bolded parts pretty much describe me, a millennial who graduated college towards the beginning of the recession, 2009. You have a reduced say in president, perhaps, but you have an outsized vote on Senate makeup, which is far more important. You're also in the top five states of how much say you as an individual have at the state level. Your political goals as a Rhode Islander should really be focused on those elements, especially the Senate if you are interested in federal level political importance - you have 39x as much voting power in terms of influencing federal legislation as a Californian, don't act like that's nothing!
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 17:35
|
|
|
haveblue posted:We already had the furry panic, it happened across the internet and on these very forums in the 00s Not to say there hasn't been furries who don't understand appropriate social boundaries, but that's really been more of a "online people" problem / is not really uniquely furry. Personally I think it's more because a lot of people have moved on - either because there just isn't a ton of material there - a lot of furries embrace their weirdness, such as taking pride in the fandom/identity being something a lot of advertisers don't want to touch because of the sexual/kink/weird elements, or there isn't really a big audience for furry hate (there's a bigger audience in just hating queer people) or, humorously, a fair amount of people found appeal in vague concepts of "furry." Or at least, I've seen a fair share of non-furry online persons joke about "well what would be my fursona be" only to get a bunch of fan art and have like a "oh, okay, I kind of get the appeal now" moment. bird food bathtub posted:The Furry community had a serious internal reckoning a few years back where the hard-right was trying to recruit them as a group and they ended up fighting back hard. There was a whole time period with Nazi furries. Recruiting isolated outcasts based on their anger is kinda the right's thing.
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 18:00
|
|
|
Mellow Seas posted:Millennial - Uhhh... screen time? Can't wait to find out!
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 18:07
|
|
|
I honestly thought furries were just people who liked My Little Pony a bit too much and thought people were kinkshaming with all the hate. I legit wasn't aware that they were lumped in with LGBT?
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 18:28
|
|
|
Boris Galerkin posted:I honestly thought furries were just people who liked My Little Pony a bit too much and thought people were kinkshaming with all the hate. I legit wasn't aware that they were lumped in with LGBT? It's not really "lumped in" with LGBT. There's just a lot of queer furries / furries tend to be fairly queer friendly and sex-positive. "bronies" might be the people you were thinking about that liked MLP "a bit too much." (But even then, that's arguably just a term fans adopted like "Trekkie" for Star Trek fans)
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 18:34
|
|
|
i can only speak for early internet furries, but it was a safe place for various lgbt people because it was such an open and accepting group. knew/know a lot of people who used furries as a social group because they grew up in an oppressive environment
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 18:34
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 01:01 |
|
|
Fister Roboto posted:Furries. We're already seeing that freakout, although for now it's more just a branchoff from the general anti-LGBT hysteria. Climate refugees, domestic and asylum-seeking.
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2023 18:48
|
|
