Ukraine War: Berth El Buk

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(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)

zone: Dec 6, 2016

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1645091092495323138
This is pretty interesting. The notion that Strelkov has been allowed to speak freely, relatively speaking, concerning the war, Putin, and various other topics, suggests that the GRU and FSB are none too pleased with Vladimir Vladimirovich Monke. Their relationship seems to be deteriorating steadily as more news of disasters from the front filter in, while the Russian propaganda arm are no longer capable of spinning up anything to convince their audiences with, except threats of nuclear weapons. They don't even sound convinced themselves.

# ? Apr 10, 2023 05:17

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# ? May 30, 2024 11:56

Drone_Fragger: May 9, 2007

I mean factionalism within the putin regime is very well known so that doesn't surprise me.

What does surprise me is that he's still alive after directly criticizing Putin. Normally that gets you into a tragic window inspection accident very quickly, as has happened to people fsr more important than girkin, far more quickly.

# ? Apr 10, 2023 08:08

Roblo: Dec 10, 2007; I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

BBC is reporting the Russians have "taken the Bahkmut city centre". How that compares to previous claims that theyve captured the city I don't know.

Knew it was possible, and it's one hell of a phyrric victory if they have managed it, but it's not ideal.

If they have, I'm sure they'll be pushed back out soon enough.

# ? Apr 10, 2023 08:37

THE BAR: Oct 20, 2011; You know what might look better on your nose?

Drone_Fragger posted:

I mean factionalism within the putin regime is very well known so that doesn't surprise me.

What does surprise me is that he's still alive after directly criticizing Putin. Normally that gets you into a tragic window inspection accident very quickly, as has happened to people fsr more important than girkin, far more quickly.

The man has agoraphobia and doesn't like tea, what can you do? :shrug:

# ? Apr 10, 2023 08:46

mobby_6kl: Aug 9, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

Roblo posted:

BBC is reporting the Russians have "taken the Bahkmut city centre". How that compares to previous claims that theyve captured the city I don't know.

Knew it was possible, and it's one hell of a phyrric victory if they have managed it, but it's not ideal.

If they have, I'm sure they'll be pushed back out soon enough.

That was planting a flag on the rubble of the city hall. So they probably made at another block or two.

# ? Apr 10, 2023 08:58

CSM: Jan 29, 2014; 56th Motorized Infantry 'Mariupol' Brigade
Seh' die Welt in Trummern liegen

Good summary on Bakhmut:

quote:

...

In late February, Ukraine was close to losing the battle for Bakhmut, according to an assessment in a batch of what appear to be classified operational briefs prepared by the Pentagon and Joint Staff and leaked on social media this month. Senior U.S. officials have said the Federal Bureau of Investigation has opened an inquiry into the leak.

At the time, two Russian flanking maneuvers to the northwest and southwest of the city were close to encircling Bakhmut. A single access road, the 506, remained open for Ukrainian forces and the few civilians still in the city, but it was under Russian artillery fire. Ukraine�s commanding general in the east, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, called the route the �last breathing tube.�

Ukrainian commanders decided to reinforce the defenses of the roads rather than retreat, according to the leaked documents. Ukraine�s army deployed many soldiers to the fight for Bakhmut that it had hoped to hold in reserve for a counteroffensive anticipated in the coming weeks or months, and its forces have sustained heavy casualties.

Russia�s assaults have dwindled near Bakhmut and elsewhere along the front line as Moscow�s winter offensive appears to be winding down without having gained significant ground, the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based research group, said Saturday in an assessment of the battlefield. �Current Russian attacks are focused on distracting and dispersing Ukrainian troops in anticipation of counteroffensive operations,� it said.

By late last week, fighting to the south of the T504 highway had settled into an almost predictable routine of mortar strikes and nighttime raids, neither of which threaten a breakthrough, Ukrainian soldiers said. That has secured the lifeline of mud-spattered, artillery-cratered asphalt for resupplying ammunition and evacuating wounded Ukrainian troops.

Success in the battle for the roads, of course, will do Ukraine less lasting good if the city center falls to Russia. Signs of setbacks in the street fighting point to losses of most of the city. Last week, Russian forces raised a flag over the ruins of the City Hall.

...

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/09/world/europe/ukraine-bakhmut-roads.html

CSM fucked around with this message at 09:50 on Apr 10, 2023

# ? Apr 10, 2023 09:44

Drone_Fragger: May 9, 2007

Its astonishing russia hasnt realised bakhmut is a huge combine harvester designed to reduce russias operational reserves so that ukraine can force breakthroughs elsewhere. But what do i know, I didn't spend three year at clown college before bribing my way to a general level position in thr russian military.

# ? Apr 10, 2023 10:00

mobby_6kl: Aug 9, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

They probably realized that but need something to spin as win

# ? Apr 10, 2023 10:48

poor waif: Apr 8, 2007; Kaboom

Drone_Fragger posted:

Its astonishing russia hasnt realised bakhmut is a huge combine harvester designed to reduce russias operational reserves so that ukraine can force breakthroughs elsewhere. But what do i know, I didn't spend three year at clown college before bribing my way to a general level position in thr russian military.

I'd be surprised if they don't realise how expensive Bakhmut has become. My guess is that they've determined that any other place would be even worse, like Vuhledar or Avdiivka. If the minimal goal is to take all or Donbass, they'll have to deploy their resources wherever they can make any type of gains.

# ? Apr 10, 2023 10:50

Roblo: Dec 10, 2007; I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

I am pretty worried about the amount of losses Ukraine has supposedly taken in defending though. History will tell if it was the right decision.

Can't help but wonder how much of all of this (including the leak) is misinfo, though.

# ? Apr 10, 2023 11:12

Asehujiko: Apr 6, 2011

appropriatemetaphor posted:

Could be an intentional defensive position.

Or yeah blundered into a hole lol

Upon closer inspection, there appears to be a tree stump limiting the gun's traverse to about 20 degrees starboard so I'm pretty sure now that the tank wasn't supposed to go into the hole.

# ? Apr 10, 2023 11:53

CAT INTERCEPTOR: Nov 9, 2004; Basically a male Margaret Thatcher

Roblo posted:

BBC is reporting the Russians have "taken the Bahkmut city centre". How that compares to previous claims that theyve captured the city I don't know.

Knew it was possible, and it's one hell of a phyrric victory if they have managed it, but it's not ideal.

If they have, I'm sure they'll be pushed back out soon enough.

It looks like Ukraine have made a tactical withdrawl to a prepared defense line along a railway on the west side of Bakhmut. IN the end if Ukraine withdraws to high ground ot the west, it means pretty much nothing to the progress of the war, Russia temporarily has the smokig remains of what was a not particularly large township

Storkrasch posted:

I'd be surprised if they don't realise how expensive Bakhmut has become. My guess is that they've determined that any other place would be even worse, like Vuhledar or Avdiivka. If the minimal goal is to take all or Donbass, they'll have to deploy their resources wherever they can make any type of gains.

Russia by reports have taken hideous losses for gently caress all Ukrainian losses at Vuhledar or Avdiivka - Bakhmut is the *only* place they can show they have gone anywhere and cost Ukraine more than a token loss from what is now clearly a failed winter offensive and thats only because they have thrown so much material and blood into an absurd bloodbath fighting through the rubble of Bukhmut.

# ? Apr 10, 2023 12:10

Karma Comedian: Feb 2, 2012

Speaking about offensives, the Russians seem to be preparing for spring:

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1645299307535384577?t=CGz8SnsN0ndpjVyTp_U5XA&s=19

# ? Apr 10, 2023 12:21

Somaen: Nov 19, 2007; by vyelkin

What's the spread on a BTG? I remember the initial invasion was done with 200 and the reports were that Russia amassed 200k people then. 300 btgs sounds like most of them would be bare assed

Antigravitas posted:

Friend,

https://www.youtube.com/@zapovednik/videos

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-qRHYs2ldI&t=43s

Hell yeah thanks for sharing this

# ? Apr 10, 2023 12:31

zone: Dec 6, 2016

Somaen posted:

What's the spread on a BTG? I remember the initial invasion was done with 200 and the reports were that Russia amassed 200k people then. 300 btgs sounds like most of them would be bare assed

Hell yeah thanks for sharing this

Each BTG counts as 600-800 people at full strength, so on average 700 per BTG. This is assuming, however, that all these units are at full strength, which after this much fighting, they most certainly are not.

# ? Apr 10, 2023 12:33

Shaman Tank Spec: Dec 26, 2003; *blep*

mobby_6kl posted:

They probably realized that but need something to spin as win

Back during World War I, Erich von Falkenheyn got a brilliant idea for how to win the stalemate war. He realized that if the German forces managed to capture an area that was very important to French national self-esteem, they would force them to commit more and more troops to the area to recapture it. And if they then just reinforced the hell out of their positions and brought in tons and tons of artillery, they could turn the area into a giant meat grinder that would enable them to mulch massive amounts of French troops and hopefully make their political situation so untenable that they would try to sue for peace. Nine months later the Battle of Verdun had indeed caused close to 400 000 French casualties, but because local German commanders didn't really get the plan and messed things up, also about 360 000 German casualties.

What I'm saying is, it wouldn't be historically unprecedented for a bunch of fragile egomaniacs to get mentally so attached to a thing that they're willing to sacrifice tons of lives and material in trying to capture it rather than admitting that maybe that loving hill isn't worth the lives of 160 000 frenchmen. And Putin is more fragile than most.

# ? Apr 10, 2023 12:49

NTRabbit: Aug 15, 2012; i wear this armour to protect myself from the histrionics of hysterical women

bitches

Somaen posted:

What's the spread on a BTG? I remember the initial invasion was done with 200 and the reports were that Russia amassed 200k people then. 300 btgs sounds like most of them would be bare assed

Hell yeah thanks for sharing this

600-800 total soldiers, of which 100-200 are mobik infantry, a further 200 never made it to their units, and the rest operate 10 T-62 or T-55s, 40 BMP-1 or MT-LBs or BTR-50s, an air defence battery of SA-6s and Shilkas, and theoretically an artillery battery that may or may not have triple figures worth of shells.

NTRabbit fucked around with this message at 12:58 on Apr 10, 2023

# ? Apr 10, 2023 12:56

zone: Dec 6, 2016

Not to mention that they're throwing in their best troops into Bakhmut, from their good motorized rifle brigades, to VDV, and the Wagners, all of whom won't be available to shore up other lines of contact in case of a Ukrainian breakthrough anywhere on the frontline. Their sunk cost fallacy went so hard they're sending the same Wagners and VDV to try taking Avdiivka, where they've fared no better than their comrades near Bakhmut. One of the last intercepted calls claimed that entire companies or battalions of VDV have been cut down in the fighting there, assuming that's where it came from. These are losses you can ill afford before a major counteroffensive by Ukraine. In particular, the massive amount of artillery and equipment that have been lost near both active fronts.

# ? Apr 10, 2023 12:58

Karma Comedian: Feb 2, 2012

Ukraine better watch out, more reinforcements otw

https://youtu.be/1ncVfI7_cRE

(Link is work safe)

Karma Comedian fucked around with this message at 13:27 on Apr 10, 2023

# ? Apr 10, 2023 13:25

zone: Dec 6, 2016

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1645366751658496001
Why would Luka look at what happened to Armenia and think that yes, Russia will save us in the event of internal unrest or even an actual attack on Belarusian soil?

# ? Apr 10, 2023 13:28

Tai: Mar 8, 2006

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1644893058259984385

15 mins of smalldickenergy

Token weather guy makes a cameo

# ? Apr 10, 2023 13:35

Sedgr: Sep 16, 2007; Neat!

Bakhmut ~~will fall in three days~~ ~~fell a year ago~~ ~~fell six months ago~~ ~~fell three months ago~~ ~~fell last month~~ ~~fell two weeks ago~~ ~~fell last week~~ ~~fell a few days ago~~ ~~fell yesterday~~ will fall today or tomorrow! It's inevitable...

Ukrainians chose to hold because in the end you have to draw the line somewhere. But the grinding cost of it as they build up is a bitter pill to swallow.

Putin is a real piece of poo poo.

# ? Apr 10, 2023 13:42

zone: Dec 6, 2016

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1645358927146545154
Wanted terrorist Strelkov says that HIMARS are even more effective than is actually let on, and that entire headquarters and brigades keep getting torched by them on a regular basis. He mentions Rosgvardiya day, or March 27, in this clip, as the date of a recent series of strikes, and that there have been "worse cases" than the new year's strike on the barracks in Makiivka.

# ? Apr 10, 2023 13:43

ZogrimAteMyHamster: Dec 8, 2015

Tai posted:

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1644893058259984385

15 mins of smalldickenergy

Token weather guy makes a cameo

The thumbnail though!

# ? Apr 10, 2023 13:50

Tigey: Apr 6, 2015

zone posted:

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1645366751658496001
Why would Luka look at what happened to Armenia and think that yes, Russia will save us in the event of internal unrest or even an actual attack on Belarusian soil?

I suspect its nothing substantive, like with the nukes. They are just trying to artificially create optics that make it appear like they are managing a tit-for-tat response to Finland joining NATO.

NATO expands? In response Russia tightens defense pact with Belarus! BAM - in one single counterstroke of equal magnitude, Russia matches the declining failing homo-NATO's moves blow for blow and maintains the balance of power!

Half of these things are just wasted efforts to create material to further propaganda narratives. If they took even half the amount of time and treasure that they spend on all these smoke and mirrors, and allocated it toward their military instead, they might have had more luck in this war.

# ? Apr 10, 2023 13:52

Tigey: Apr 6, 2015

ZogrimAteMyHamster posted:

The thumbnail though!

NATO has 31 members. Who are the other 19?

# ? Apr 10, 2023 13:54

Tai: Mar 8, 2006

Tigey posted:

NATO has 31 members. Who are the other 19?

Australia, NZ, Japan, SK etc

# ? Apr 10, 2023 13:57

EorayMel: May 30, 2015; WE GET IT. YOU LOVE GUN JESUS. Toujours des fusils Bullpup Fran�ais.

I know not who will fight in Bakhmut 2.0, but Bakhmut 3.0 will by fought by cocks and clowns

# ? Apr 10, 2023 14:25

steinrokkan: Apr 2, 2011; Soiled Meat

ZogrimAteMyHamster posted:

The thumbnail though!

"50 countries? Total wipe out you say? That's awful! And how are the NATO forces doing?"
"They haven't shown up yet"

# ? Apr 10, 2023 14:35

Just Another Lurker: May 1, 2009

Karma Comedian posted:

Ukraine better watch out, more reinforcements otw

https://youtu.be/1ncVfI7_cRE

(Link is work safe)

I asked them a year ago if it would work in mud, they said yes. :twisted:

# ? Apr 10, 2023 14:35

zone: Dec 6, 2016

EorayMel posted:

I know not who will fight in Bakhmut 2.0, but Bakhmut 3.0 will by fought by cocks and clowns

So a 1v1 winner take all fight between Zelensky and Prigozhin?

# ? Apr 10, 2023 14:37

zone: Dec 6, 2016

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1645326985772531712
Jesus Christ. His 30 pieces of silver amounted to no more than 54 dollars.

# ? Apr 10, 2023 15:19

EorayMel: May 30, 2015; WE GET IT. YOU LOVE GUN JESUS. Toujours des fusils Bullpup Fran�ais.

zone posted:

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1645326985772531712
Jesus Christ. His 30 pieces of silver amounted to no more than 54 dollars.

Not even enough to buy REmake4 :sad:

# ? Apr 10, 2023 15:27

Strategic Tea: Sep 1, 2012

zone posted:

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1645326985772531712
Jesus Christ. His 30 pieces of silver amounted to no more than 54 dollars.

love 2 betray my country for half the price of a taxi to the airport

# ? Apr 10, 2023 17:14

RoboBoogie: Sep 18, 2008

zone posted:

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1645326985772531712
Jesus Christ. His 30 pieces of silver amounted to no more than 54 dollars.

i hope they were able to report incorrect details to the handlers.

# ? Apr 10, 2023 17:18

Lammasu: May 8, 2019; lawful Good Monster

zone posted:

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1645326985772531712
Jesus Christ. His 30 pieces of silver amounted to no more than 54 dollars.

I would be very reluctant to trust an intelligence source that was so cheap.

# ? Apr 10, 2023 17:45

zone: Dec 6, 2016

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65213426

quote:

A Russian activist who revealed details of the burials of Wagner mercenaries killed in Ukraine has left Russia.

Vitaly Votanovsky, who began documenting the deaths of Russian soldiers in Ukraine by monitoring graveyards in his home region, fled the country on 4 April after receiving numerous death threats.

He spoke to the BBC from the Armenian capital Yerevan.

Last year, Vitaly spent his 50th birthday in a jail cell.

The activist, from the southern Russian region of Krasnodar, was arrested and jailed on 24 February 2022, the day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The former Russian army officer had gone out to protest that day in clothes emblazoned with the words "No to Putin!" and "No to the war!"

Photos of Vitaly in his outfit are included in official court documents which Vitaly showed to the BBC.

"Because of that coat I got 20 days in jail!" he says.

(...)

Vitaly started travelling around Krasnodar Region in May 2022, visiting every single graveyard to record the numbers of the fallen.

"I needed to prove to people that there was a catastrophe happening," Vitaly tells me, "that people were dying here, close to them.

"I needed to show people that the war would affect everyone and everything."

(...)

He painstakingly recorded the names and details of all the graves he found.

By the time he fled Russia earlier this month, his database contained over 1,300 names - which included the dead from the Krasnodar Region only.

Vitaly identified the graves of the men who had died in the war - as opposed to regular, civilian deaths - by asking local people, as well as studying the wreaths and photos on the graves.

In December 2022, the activist went to Bakinskaya to photograph graves of regular soldiers.

But while there, cemetery workers told Vitaly and his colleague that they were burying Wagner mercenaries killed in battle.

"When we were there, there were already 48 Wagner graves. Then, the next time we went, a few days later, there were 95 graves. Then 164. Then around 270," he says.

(...)

Vitaly started getting threats many months ago.

"As soon as I made my first post about graves, the threats started. Barrages of them. I started off by saving them all, but they got so many I stopped. 'We'll kill you, we'll throttle you.'

"In January, someone phoned and offered me 'a spot at the cemetery,'" Vitaly explains. "There were three such calls - I got two, and my driver Viktor got one."

The BBC has been shown copies of the death threats and a recording of the phone call.

In it, an identified man disguises his threat as a cold call from a company selling graveyard plots and coffins. He chillingly insists that: "Now is the time you should be thinking about the end of your life."

The activist says the final straw came last week.

"I was walking past a police station in Krasnodar and a police officer [recognised me]. He said 'Get ready. It's coming.' He meant the state's reaction [to]�interviews I was giving. They already had enough to open a serious criminal case against me."