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What is the most powerful flying bug?
This poll is closed.
🦋 15 3.71%
🦇 115 28.47%
🪰 12 2.97%
🐦 67 16.58%
dragonfly 94 23.27%
🦟 14 3.47%
🐝 87 21.53%
Total: 404 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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Ardennes
May 12, 2002

genericnick posted:

Is it though? Ukraine being destroyed and at least the Western parts getting nazified and deindustrialized by the IMF seems like a good result if your goal is to prevent the former USSR from forming any kind of cohesive political force again. Also diminishes Europe's potential to do the same. But then you zoom out two notches and suddenly the picture looks pretty bad for the West.

From a Western perspective, they started this thing thinking the Russians were a gas station on the edge of collapse, and now are down to scotched earth tactics. I mean that is the thing they claimed Euromadian in 2014 with the hope it opening the door for a larger consolidation over the Soviet Union again and it fizzled.

The US got some consolidation in Northern Europe, but seems to be taking it the teeth from every other angle.

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Palladium
May 8, 2012

Very Good
✔️✔️✔️✔️
seizing russian foreign assets was the dumbest move by far

DancingShade
Jul 26, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

Frosted Flake posted:

I believe April 28th is the day we should all keep in mind.



(Though I had two family members wounded at Vimy, this is what they were fighting for)

That whole photo looks like it belongs in Outcast: Second Contact.

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe
the west literally upended the existing world order with the sanctions and seizing assets and trying to dictate oil price caps for foreign countries and all that, and the dumbest part is that this was an order where everybody let the west do the paperwork side of things and profit handsomely from it because it was assumed that they would keep the system stable for the big players

Cuttlefush
Jan 15, 2014

gotta have my purp

Frosted Flake posted:

I believe April 28th is the day we should all keep in mind.



(Though I had two family members wounded at Vimy, this is what they were fighting for)

lol just casually passed this thinking it was the monument from an angle until I zoomed in a bit

DancingShade
Jul 26, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

Cerebral Bore posted:

the west literally upended the existing world order with the sanctions and seizing assets and trying to dictate oil price caps for foreign countries and all that, and the dumbest part is that this was an order where everybody let the west do the paperwork side of things and profit handsomely from it because it was assumed that they would keep the system stable for the big players

It's the whole failsons of failsons thing. The builders of empire were long gone and the inheritors (not having the necessary skills or talent to build themselves) were completely unable to manage things beyond maintenance mode, thus squandered what they had when they started loving with the underlying mechanisms using flawed short term thinking.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

DancingShade posted:

It's the whole failsons of failsons thing. The builders of empire were long gone and the inheritors (not having the necessary skills or talent to build themselves) were completely unable to manage things beyond maintenance mode, thus squandered what they had when they started loving with the underlying mechanisms using flawed short term thinking.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHTMLLADhL8

super sweet best pal
Nov 18, 2009

They've been pushing people around who can't push back for so long they've forgotten how to deal with people who can.

genericnick
Dec 26, 2012

Ardennes posted:

From a Western perspective, they started this thing thinking the Russians were a gas station on the edge of collapse, and now are down to scotched earth tactics. I mean that is the thing they claimed Euromadian in 2014 with the hope it opening the door for a larger consolidation over the Soviet Union again and it fizzled.

The US got some consolidation in Northern Europe, but seems to be taking it the teeth from every other angle.

I mean that was rhetoric. Policy was to move as fast as humanly possible into the former soviet space and burn everything you couldn't grab. And the scorched earth tactics are now applied in the former heartland of the USSR.

genericnick
Dec 26, 2012

Cuttlefush posted:

lol just casually passed this thinking it was the monument from an angle until I zoomed in a bit

I didn't zoom in :negative:

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

genericnick posted:

I mean that was rhetoric. Policy was to move as fast as humanly possible into the former soviet space and burn everything you couldn't grab. And the scorched earth tactics are now applied in the former heartland of the USSR.

Your assuming they weren’t expecting to stay, and that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a “raid” so to speak. The end of history was suppose to be absolute.

Also, to be honest, I don’t even know if the destruction in Ukraine is such a bad thing for Russia to be perfectly honest. The resources and farmland is still there, and the destruction of towns if anything is a boon for Russian construction. Also, to be honest, depopulation is the probably not the worse thing either because it simply just means a smaller and probably more loyal population to handle.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Considering the new Marvel trailer has bombs going off in Russia or something, how long will it take for the Ukraine war to work its way into video games and what will the effect be? We had a decade of shooters set in the Middle East, with the Operator trend being a big part of that. Everybody knows the "Middle Eastern setting" video game music, enemies with Keffiyehs wrapped around their heads, AK-47s, AC-130s, UAVs, etc. What do you think they'll do here?

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Frosted Flake posted:

Considering the new Marvel trailer has bombs going off in Russia or something, how long will it take for the Ukraine war to work its way into video games and what will the effect be? We had a decade of shooters set in the Middle East, with the Operator trend being a big part of that. Everybody knows the "Middle Eastern setting" video game music, enemies with Keffiyehs wrapped around their heads, AK-47s, AC-130s, UAVs, etc. What do you think they'll do here?

enemy will be neo-soviets combined with russian mobsters

Cookie Cutter
Nov 29, 2020

Is there something else that's bothering you Mr. President?

If there's no FPS Azov whitewash psyop I will be very surprised

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1645355337602457604

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Cookie Cutter posted:

If there's no FPS Azov whitewash psyop I will be very surprised

brave, nonideological patriots rising up against the tyranny of neo collectivization and open corruption by cruel, Asiatic mobsters. you play John Operator, the man sent in by the US to help this tall, attractive people throw out the invaders and win freedom

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

Frosted Flake posted:

Considering the new Marvel trailer has bombs going off in Russia or something, how long will it take for the Ukraine war to work its way into video games and what will the effect be? We had a decade of shooters set in the Middle East, with the Operator trend being a big part of that. Everybody knows the "Middle Eastern setting" video game music, enemies with Keffiyehs wrapped around their heads, AK-47s, AC-130s, UAVs, etc. What do you think they'll do here?

Papers Please, but playing as an Eastern European logistician trying to supply troops while hiding shortages, dealing with graft, angry PMCs, secret police investigations, being begged for supplies by charities, being shipped lovely counterfeit goods, etc.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

Frosted Flake posted:

Considering the new Marvel trailer has bombs going off in Russia or something, how long will it take for the Ukraine war to work its way into video games and what will the effect be? We had a decade of shooters set in the Middle East, with the Operator trend being a big part of that. Everybody knows the "Middle Eastern setting" video game music, enemies with Keffiyehs wrapped around their heads, AK-47s, AC-130s, UAVs, etc. What do you think they'll do here?

The most recent Call of Duty is already teed up for the 2023 edition to be about not-Wagner

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
Also the next season of Amazon Jack Ryan is literally going to be about foiling a plot to "bring back the Soviet Empire"

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer

Frosted Flake posted:

Considering the new Marvel trailer has bombs going off in Russia or something, how long will it take for the Ukraine war to work its way into video games and what will the effect be? We had a decade of shooters set in the Middle East, with the Operator trend being a big part of that. Everybody knows the "Middle Eastern setting" video game music, enemies with Keffiyehs wrapped around their heads, AK-47s, AC-130s, UAVs, etc. What do you think they'll do here?

it's gonna be the 'heroic' version of events. So mowing down 8 billion VDV troops who, on landing, immediately start shooting civilians who live at the airport. An epic battle of Kursk style event to defend Kyiv and send the convoy packing. Battle of Mariupol where it turns out the reason they held out so long is because there was a tier 1 operator there and he held off 9 billion troops for 10 days, ends with you escaping the city in a buggy in an epic chase sequence where you drive the buggy off a cliff directly into the back of a secret stealth Chinook. Epic mission where you control a drone and call in HIMARS. Multiple missions where your the first to enter liberated towns and villages and find all 10 billion civilians dead. All of them Russian speakers. Final mission is a suicide mission to deliver a nuke directly into the center of Donesk city. A child will beg you to stop, let him and his family live, but when you turn away for a second he pulls a knife and you detonate the bomb.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

Regarde Aduck posted:

Battle of Mariupol where it turns out the reason they held out so long is because there was a tier 1 operator there and he held off 9 billion troops for 10 days,

Oh man a sequel to 13 Hours: Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

BitcoinRockefeller
May 11, 2003

God gave me my money.

Hair Elf

gradenko_2000 posted:

Also the next season of Amazon Jack Ryan is literally going to be about foiling a plot to "bring back the Soviet Empire"

haha I bet it doesn't even involve help from china. that has to be the dumbest show on TV.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
https://twitter.com/DavidNorthWSWS/status/1645042529052639232?t=lrqLQkRSbQqypmKBuSEdTw&s=19

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

BitcoinRockefeller posted:

haha I bet it doesn't even involve help from china. that has to be the dumbest show on TV.

I loving wish China would help reestablish the Soviet Union. Chinese academics have done a great job studying and learning from the Soviet Experience and yet Russian remains liberal and capitalist.

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

mawarannahr posted:

How Russia is using the fossil fuel propaganda playbook to win the war

Climate change is one of the biggest threats to humanity and life on Earth, but the fossil fuel industry has managed to block or delay the much-needed political action for decades. Michael Mann, one of the world’s leading climate scientists, has done a lot to untangle and categorize the various propaganda tactics used by the fossil fuel lobby. He refers to this joint propaganda effort as “climate war.”

Russia – a petrostate and the main beneficiary of carbon-based economy – is one of the main fossil fuel propaganda architects. Unsurprisingly, Russia now uses the same propaganda template to weaken global support for Ukraine and win the war.

And no, I’m not talking about all the wild state TV talk shows where people actively call for genocide against Ukraine, cheer for nuclear war, and portray Putin as their supreme leader. I’m talking about much subtler and smarter tactics and channels aimed at the rest of the world with one goal in mind: to help Russia win the war in Ukraine.

So let’s look closer at this similarity and learn how to spot Russia’s propaganda machine using the concepts from Michael Mann’s The New Climate War book.
### Inactivism

Fossil fuel lobbyists realize they don’t need to convince people they are right. No, they just need to do enough to prevent people from fighting for green reforms. That’s why the main goal of fossil fuel propaganda now is to spread “inactivism” – the lack of meaningful action about climate change.

Russia’s propaganda regarding Ukraine also boils down to one goal: to stop or delay international support for Ukraine, especially military support. Russia doesn’t need to “win” the informational war – it doesn’t need to convince everybody that the invasion of Ukraine is a righteous thing. All it needs is just some “inactivism” from the rest of the world.

If other countries stop or just slow down their support of Ukraine, Russia will eventually win the war by brute force and larger ammunition stockpiles.

### Denialism
Climate change denialism is the idea that climate crisis isn’t happening or that the change isn’t caused by human activity. Denialism isn’t used as widely now, but it had been the main fossil fuel propaganda tactic prior to the 2010s.

Today, Russia keeps denying everything. It denied it was planning to invade Ukraine, it denied it was waging a war while it was invading Ukraine. Russia also denies it has committed war crimes and atrocities in Bucha, Izium, Mariupol, and elsewhere in Ukraine.

Denialism is dull and easily refutable, but it works well for already sympathizing audiences and conspiracy theorists. That’s why there are people who think the Buch massacre was staged by Ukraine.

### Whataboutism
Don Draper of the Mad Men TV series once said, “If you don’t like what’s being said, change the conversation.” And that’s exactly what the fossil fuel lobby (Russia included) has been doing.

When scientists and activists called for a massive reduction of global carbon output, the fossil fuel industry invented the “personal carbon footprint” nonsense that blamed the consumer choices of ordinary people for the climate crisis. This tactic isn’t aimed at winning an argument – it is designed to create enough noise and confusion to block any meaningful public discussion and thus political action.

Russia is doing the same thing with Ukraine. When it gets blamed for illegally invading Ukraine in the first place, Russia and its trolls bring up all the wars waged by the US or spin the “Ukraine is Nazi” nonsense. They don’t need people to think Russia is right – they just need them to think everybody else is not right either.

By drowning the discussion in endless “but what about” arguments, Russia tries to prevent the public from focusing on important things. That is, Russia illegally invaded a sovereign state for the sake of territorial conquest, and it needs to get out of Ukraine for the war to stop.

### Doomism
In climate change advocacy, “doomism” is the idea that humanity can no longer hope to solve the issue of climate change, so it needs to adapt to the new reality. While “doomism” is rooted in a very real sentiment – the feeling that humanity is failing to decarbonize its economy at the needed pace – it benefits the fossil fuel interests in the end.

Why? Well, if it’s too late to save ourselves, why bother demanding change? Why put in all your energy to try to fix the unfixable? The fossil fuel industry has long realized that fatalism leads to passivity and disengagement. Hence, they can keep doing business as usual.

The most dangerous thing about doomism is that it poisons well-meaning people by turning them into “inactivists.” Just like when American writer Jonathan Franzen wrote an opinion piece claiming that “The climate apocalypse is coming. To prepare for it, we need to admit that we can’t prevent it.” This article was later dubbed “the most brilliantly unintentional fossil fuel industry propaganda” because, while being a cry of a concerned person, it actually harmed the cause of climate activism.

So who are the doomists of the Russo-Ukrainian war? The people who, prior to February 24, said there was no point in arming Ukraine because if Russia decided to invade, Ukraine wouldn’t stand any chance anyway. These “experts” then said: “Okay, Ukraine defended well, but there’s no way it can actually retake the occupied lands from Russia.” Now, these voices are saying Ukraine won’t win the war against Russia no matter how many weapons it receives from its allies.

Most of these arguments lead to one conclusion: it’s impossible for Ukraine to win, so we shouldn’t waste our time and money supporting it – let’s just strike some kind of deal with Russia. Of course, none of these voices address the fact that such a deal would reward Russia’s invasion and wouldn’t bring lasting peace to Eastern Europe.

Needless to say, this mindset directly benefits Russia as it promotes inaction in the face of an obviously criminal invasion of a sovereign country. Buckle up, the voices of doomism will get louder as the war grinds on.

### Division
Sowing division among your opponents is an old-school political move, but it still works.

Instead of jointly demanding systemic change (the fastest possible decarbonization of our economy), people are dragged into endless culture wars, like shaming people for traveling by plane. The fossil fuel industry is pouring a lot of resources to spread conflicting narratives and make people fight among each other instead of uniting against their common enemy.

Russia also uses this tactic against Ukraine by promoting multiple narratives at once. Depending on the audience, Russia brands itself as the ultimate global fighter against Western colonialism, as the bastion of traditional family and Christianity, and as the enemy of global elites. That way, it is trying to disrupt the unity of Ukraine’s allies and prevent joint global action.

As Timothy Snyder said: “If you don't like gay people, they tell you the Ukrainians are all gay. If you don't like Nazis, they tell you they're all Nazis. If you do like Nazis, they tell you that they're all Jews.”
### The non-solution solution

Finally, one of the newer propaganda tactics is the promotion of “non-solution solutions.”

According to Michael Mann, “The inactivists have sought to hijack actual climate progress by promoting “solutions” (natural gas, carbon capture, geoengineering) that aren’t solutions at all.”

There is a clear scientific consensus on what should be done to solve the climate crisis: abandon fossil fuels and turn to renewables ASAP. Instead, the fossil fuel lobby pushes numerous questionable alternative ideas for solving the crisis, thus slowing down the implementation of real solutions and meaningful political action.

Russia, too, is trying to hijack meaningful international anti-war effort by promoting scenarios that won’t actually solve anything. Right now, the only real way to actually save innocent lives in Ukraine and end the war is to arm Ukraine sufficiently so it can push the Russians out of its internationally recognized territory. Everything else is just a distraction at this point.

Negotiations are pointless when Russia is still aiming to exterminate the Ukrainian nation and destroy its statehood. Limiting military help to Ukraine “to not escalate the conflict” will only increase the chances of Russia’s military success. Focusing on humanitarian help will not help save human lives and liberate Ukrainians trapped under Russian occupation.

Russia will try to use different channels and “useful idiots” to promote various non-solution solutions, as all of them ultimately benefit Russia.

### Let’s focus on meaningful action: for the world and for Ukraine

Fossil fuel propaganda is so similar to Russian propaganda for a reason: Russia is one of the main architects of fossil fuel disinformation. Right now, both interest groups are using these various methods to cement the status quo and prevent our fight for justice. Let’s make sure they fail.

People around the world deserve a future. Life on Earth deserves to be protected. Ukrainians deserve to live in peace. Ukraine deserves justice.

When the gently caress did the world start to run on the petro ruble and why didn't anyone tell me?

ContinuityNewTimes
Dec 30, 2010

Я выдуман напрочь
They're going to reskin that cod mission where you help Jonas Savimbi fight the Cubans.

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Modern Warfare literally had a level in Chernobyl/Pripyat whatever. Ukraine was always a level in a video game shooter, it's just that nobody bothered to emphasize that it was a big beautiful democracy standing against the armies of darakness.

FrancisFukyomama
Feb 4, 2019

Frosted Flake posted:

I loving wish China would help reestablish the Soviet Union. Chinese academics have done a great job studying and learning from the Soviet Experience and yet Russian remains liberal and capitalist.

doesn’t the Russian communist party basically say they’re going to do a China thing if they ever take power? though that’s kind of a moot point unless Putin suddenly dies, which will happen any moment now according to all those western media reports about him no longer looking 35 while our leaders are visibly decaying

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

https://twitter.com/OleksiyDanilov/status/1645397186304196613

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

And I don't post "war porn" stuff because usually it's not that interesting for me. I'm more about social and economic stuff. But everyone should post whatever they think is interesting or important imo.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1645390662152404998

evilmiera
Dec 14, 2009

Status: Ravenously Rambunctious

HiroProtagonist posted:

it would unironically own if you never posted here again :)

I'm sorry but no matter what diet I get on I doubt I could ever 100 percent give up pizzas.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Lostconfused posted:

And I don't post "war porn" stuff because usually it's not that interesting for me. I'm more about social and economic stuff. But everyone should post whatever they think is interesting or important imo.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1645390662152404998

Bring Back Warsaw Pact reason #482.

I am curious about the NYT hanging Ukraine out to dry though. It was a single source leak on a Minecraft discord, it would have been very, very easy to deny, or simply not acknowledge. Federal government still has today off, but I've heard that reporting on the leaks will be in our media packet for tomorrow, which means it's something officially discussed at work now, probably in our first meeting of the week.

The White House commenting on it too, this is a big departure. It's entirely possible (imo likely) Ukraine really did get suckered into a Przemyśl Fortress/Verdun situation and bled their army white in a battle of the Russians' choosing, but why admit that? Why admit Ukraine had 3 strikes' worth of SAMs remaining?

They had already been soft peddling that Bakmut was insignificant, the Russians attacked with shovels and were out of shells, the Ukrainians had fought out the Russian army in a heroic defence etc etc. so losing the city this week would have not made too many ripples, I don't think.

Could this be the result of the China-brokered Iran-Saudi deal or Macron's visit to China, and comments on return, causing a desire to pivot to other priorities? Strategically, even without the documents, the Ukrainian state and army did not look like they were going to see the next snowfall, but the media war and White House commentary have been divorced from reality this whole time. For them to admit something is up, before the much-vaunted offensive, that's a departure from norms.

Idk, theories?

e: I get the sense this has even caused a ripple on my wife's desk, though lol she scolded me for implying the Micheals worked for CSIS this weekend, so the world has not turned entirely upside down.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
I would say the tell was how underwhelming the response was for new equipment and that in the end Ukraine at best is just going to have to make hodgepodge utilizing mostly older equipment. I don’t think the leak has helped as the response has been more negative than positive despite the Oryx numbers in it.

Bakhmut was a painful lost, and at this point, it is clear the Russians are just waiting until they see an opening.

It would be the worse time to start backing away and beating the war drums for Taiwan, the problem is it doesn’t seem anyone is into it either.

Also, the US is probably going to have some significant internal issues in the not too near future, either from a banking collapse or simply persistent stagflation.

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

I have no theories, I only spent the weekend listening to some old russians rambling on about geopolitics.

Anyway, history really did start moving again. There's a least several different geopolitical hot spots going on around the world right now like Turkey, Israel, France. Some of them directly involve Russia like transcaucasia and central asia. And China while not getting involved directly in the war is instead making diplomatic moves in other parts of the world, where maybe someone in America thought they had complete control.

Maybe like Wagner drawing all attention to Bakhmut, Russia drew all of western attention to the war in Ukraine, allowing for freedom of action in other areas.

Anyway, long winded way of saying "both sides hosed up". I've heard this somewhere else, so not my original thought maybe even here, but both sides miscalculated in this war. Russia expected a quick military victory, Europe/USA expected a quick economic victory. Neither turned out to be true, so both sides ended up involved in a protracted conflict. Maybe the west overcommitted to the war even more than russia.

One thing that I haven't heard mentioned recently in relation to all of this is the nuclear Iran deal. It didn't go anywhere, but I'm not sure any side got what it wanted there either.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

It makes me wonder what would have happened if the Russians pulled off the coup de main last year. Of course, their war in Afghanistan also opened with a beautifully executed, still taught at Staff College, coup de main.

Certainly NATO has a lot less military equipment lying around than a year ago, not that it was going to be used for anything else. Nobody had a satisfactory plan for the MRAPs, for one thing. They parked a bunch of ours in a fenced off parking lot at the Ottawa airport lol.

Turtle Sandbox
Dec 31, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

Ardennes posted:

I would say the tell was how underwhelming the response was for new equipment and that in the end Ukraine at best is just going to have to make hodgepodge utilizing mostly older equipment. I don’t think the leak has helped as the response has been more negative than positive despite the Oryx numbers in it.

Bakhmut was a painful lost, and at this point, it is clear the Russians are just waiting until they see an opening.

It would be the worse time to start backing away and beating the war drums for Taiwan, the problem is it doesn’t seem anyone is into it either.

Also, the US is probably going to have some significant internal issues in the not too near future, either from a banking collapse or simply persistent stagflation.

WW3 will help get us through a tough internal time like that.

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe

Frosted Flake posted:

Bring Back Warsaw Pact reason #482.

I am curious about the NYT hanging Ukraine out to dry though. It was a single source leak on a Minecraft discord, it would have been very, very easy to deny, or simply not acknowledge. Federal government still has today off, but I've heard that reporting on the leaks will be in our media packet for tomorrow, which means it's something officially discussed at work now, probably in our first meeting of the week.

The White House commenting on it too, this is a big departure. It's entirely possible (imo likely) Ukraine really did get suckered into a Przemyśl Fortress/Verdun situation and bled their army white in a battle of the Russians' choosing, but why admit that? Why admit Ukraine had 3 strikes' worth of SAMs remaining?

They had already been soft peddling that Bakmut was insignificant, the Russians attacked with shovels and were out of shells, the Ukrainians had fought out the Russian army in a heroic defence etc etc. so losing the city this week would have not made too many ripples, I don't think.

Could this be the result of the China-brokered Iran-Saudi deal or Macron's visit to China, and comments on return, causing a desire to pivot to other priorities? Strategically, even without the documents, the Ukrainian state and army did not look like they were going to see the next snowfall, but the media war and White House commentary have been divorced from reality this whole time. For them to admit something is up, before the much-vaunted offensive, that's a departure from norms.

Idk, theories?

e: I get the sense this has even caused a ripple on my wife's desk, though lol she scolded me for implying the Micheals worked for CSIS this weekend, so the world has not turned entirely upside down.

they realize that they're gonna lose eventually and are laying the groundwork for the climbdown?

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
The Russians screwed up the initial phase but I really don’t think it really is going to hold them back like the overreaction from the West. To be honest, I think it would have been a mess even if they had come in hard, there were tons of nationalists ready to fight and they would have gotten a bunch of arms.

The Russians would just be fighting more of a irregular war than a WW1 part 2.

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

I would say that the military failure isn't important to what happens in Ukraine but Russia it self. The failure and the western response is driving the need and desire for internal reforms. What Russia looks like when it comes out on the other side of this conflict is an interesting question.

Edit: Important point is that there are reforms being done. The Russian government isn't entirely stagnant. But how much, how far, and where those reforms go is not clear and an serious question.

Lostconfused has issued a correction as of 16:41 on Apr 10, 2023

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Ardennes
May 12, 2002
I would say reforms to military and state industries, I would say it is going to take shape but I really don’t see major political or social reforms happening.

If anything the big shift is that Russia has turn away from the West, and the liberal opposition has gotten a lot weaker.

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