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This New York Times article goes into some detail about the air defense situation, but it also includes screenshots of leaked documents, so it may not be safe for some. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/09/us/politics/leaked-documents-ukrainian-air-defense.html People like Kofman and Watling have been pointing out that the supply for AD is dire for months now, and thanks to the leaks, we now know how bad it really is. This may have a bigger impact than the shortage of artillery shells, because that also affects Russia. But they still have their air force, and if missiles run out, the situation on the frontlines may be getting much worse.
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Apr 10, 2023 08:48
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Seems like they're cracking down on the prowar folk who are upset things aren't going well. https://mobile.twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1645342231375626248 Surprising that they don't go after Girkin for saying things like this https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1645358927146545154 Charlz Guybon fucked around with this message at 10:35 on Apr 10, 2023 |
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Apr 10, 2023 09:57
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Hannibal Rex posted:This New York Times article goes into some detail about the air defense situation, but it also includes screenshots of leaked documents, so it may not be safe for some. I don't think you will end up in Guantanamo Bay for reading NY Times. If Ukraine gets more Patriots then that would help the stocks last that much longer. Finland would have Buk's that have been removed from use, but I don't know if they're still good (but it would be better than nothing even if a couple of them misfired) and there might be an issue with getting a re-export permit from the country that sold them to us...
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Apr 10, 2023 11:01
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Nenonen posted:I don't think you will end up in Guantanamo Bay for reading NY Times. https://suomenkuvalehti.fi/kotimaa/paakaupunkiseudun-ilmasuojassa-paljastui-aukko/ I don't know how this has manifested itself or if the ukrainians have had help in bypassing said backdoor access.
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Apr 10, 2023 11:13
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Henrik Zetterberg posted:Is that like a Ukrainian cover of Warriors of the World by Manowar? If so, that’s loving awesome. https://open.spotify.com/track/3alm8yB9hq247ZqMAxHOMd That band does a lot of good metal covers.
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Apr 10, 2023 11:49
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WarpedLichen posted:That's actually quite a few people like Girkin or even Solovyov where I don't really understand why their statements deserve coverage. But I guess it's really hard to cover the firehose of bullshit strategy without talking about them. As an outsider what I find really frustrating is that it is very hard to figure out what the actual information landscape inside Russia looks like. I mean, we have plenty of unhinged people in my own country, and when international media cover Danish politics, what I see is not a very representative version of reality. I suspect the same goes for coverage of Russia (even if to a lesser extent as Russia is much more relevant in a global context and international media have a lot more available expertise and insight on Russia than on Denmark). So I am left wondering what pundits are we not hearing about? Who listens to the deranged politicians and pundits? How much influence do they have and what roles do they play as mouthpieces of various power structures and socio-political undercurrents? That's really my main beef with international news in general - whether the topic is Russia or something else entirely - and whether the media is a Danish outlet or an international one. But I see why it is difficult to convey an accurate picture of the information landscape (and that's something that few care to actually do anyway, as hyperbole is better for clicks, and simpler reporting is cheaper even for the non-sensationalist media). Even if I talk to someone who lives in Russia, I will not get an accurate picture. That requires talking to multiple well-informed sources, preferably across the socio-political and socio-economic spectrum, and then applying expert knowledge to synthesize an accurate picture. This is actually one of my main reasons to lurk in this thread even if I don't post a lot these days. Combined with a few other sources, it's the closest I can get to forming a nuanced and accurate picture of the information landscape in Ukraine, Russia and in other countries (ie in matters relating to the war). So those of you I see expressing worry about overstepping your expertise and thus holding back: please reconsider. I'm not asking anyone to contribute low-effort, low-quality posts that will land you in a short spat (or worse) in cat jail. But I don't think I am the only one coming to this thread for perspectives that is not easy to find elsewhere.
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Apr 10, 2023 13:13
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Independent media has effectively ceased to exist in Russia, so the question of why certain voices are around and why certain viewpoints are being expressed inevitably turns to Kremlinology. Dojd has been producing episodes tracking Russian propaganda: https://www.youtube.com/@Fake_News/videos Some of those episodes were produced for Arte: https://www.arte.tv/de/videos/RC-022858/fake-news/ But only in German. 
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Apr 10, 2023 13:43
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This YouTuber has been buying satellite time and counting the amount of tanks in storage in Russia. He does a good job of giving a historical overview of how many tanks Russia had when the USSR fell, as well as the weaknesses of how Russian tanks were counted leading up to the war. He currently estimates the following "Good" tanks left. T-54/55 - 270 T-62. - 560 T-64. - 248 T-72. - 1841 T-80. - 942 T-90. - 50 He then estimates that if the current rate of tanks being pulled is the same, then Russia will run out of stock in 2 years and some change. A lot of these numbers come with huge caveats of course, but I thought the thread may be interested in the process. I found it especially amazing that you can just buy satellite coverage and count a nation's stockpiled armor to some degree.
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Apr 10, 2023 13:47
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Donkringel posted:This YouTuber has been buying satellite time and counting the amount of tanks in storage in Russia. How can he tell if the tanks are good? Even if the condition on the outside looks fine, that doesn't tell us anything about the internal condition.
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Apr 10, 2023 13:58
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After reading the NY Times piece on the leaks, I am curious about what the exact military production situation is. I assume Russia has moved heaven and earth to keep its own factories running to fuel its artillery-heavy approach to warfare. You have North Korean shells and Iranian drones and I'm sure stuff of some kind coming in from China. Kofman's latest podcast made it sound like if/when Ukraine goes on its own offensive, that might be the last big push attempt it can try given material production constraints.
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Apr 10, 2023 14:12
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Nenonen posted:I don't think you will end up in Guantanamo Bay for reading NY Times. People with security clearances can get in trouble for reading leaked secret documents, even if they're widely available. It is silly, yes, but that is the rule and that's people's concern (not that people without a security clearance can get in trouble - it is a key part of American law there is no law that criminalizes reading classified documents standing alone unless you conspired in leaking them).
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Apr 10, 2023 14:15
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Eric Cantonese posted:I assume Russia has moved heaven and earth to keep its own factories running to fuel its artillery-heavy approach to warfare. Nothing suggests that this actually happened.
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Apr 10, 2023 14:22
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Charlz Guybon posted:How can he tell if the tanks are good? Even if the condition on the outside looks fine, that doesn't tell us anything about the internal condition. That's why good is in parentheses, if you watch the informative video the guy goes into how hard it is to guess the condition of a tank based on how it looks like from satellite pictures in varying weather conditions. So "good" tanks are basically the ones not looking totally decrepit/missing their turret or standing in the presumed scrap lot of the storage facilities.
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Apr 10, 2023 14:30
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evilweasel posted:People with security clearances can get in trouble for reading leaked secret documents, even if they're widely available. It is silly, yes, but that is the rule and that's people's concern (not that people without a security clearance can get in trouble - it is a key part of American law there is no law that criminalizes reading classified documents standing alone unless you conspired in leaking them). One of the examples they give when they're telling you about what will get you in trouble when you're getting your first clearance is something classified being in the newspapers, on TV and on Wikipedia. Depending on your clearance there's a nonzero chance that you end up hooked to a polygraph test some day with a person from the Bureau asking questions about if you've ever saw classified information you weren't cleared for and that's a really bad time to have to explain yourself.
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Apr 10, 2023 14:32
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Charlz Guybon posted:How can he tell if the tanks are good? Even if the condition on the outside looks fine, that doesn't tell us anything about the internal condition. That's under the "Lot's of caveats" he goes more in depth on in the video. Couple of criteria he uses though. - He makes an estimate of the tanks stored under covered buildings being "Good" - Tanks that are hooked up to conditioning lines (they're supposed to control tank internal environments) are deemed "Good" - Tanks with no turrets are "Bad" - Tanks that have been in the same spot over years with no movement are "Bad". My guess is that he is heavily overestimating, as he would rather overestimate tank quality than underestimate. At best I would think this gives a top ceiling estimate on tank stock availability.
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Apr 10, 2023 14:33
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OddObserver posted:Nothing suggests that this actually happened. So it's all just draining old stockpiles?
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Apr 10, 2023 14:36
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Charlz Guybon posted:How can he tell if the tanks are good? Even if the condition on the outside looks fine, that doesn't tell us anything about the internal condition. He can't, it's just a count of externally intact tanks. However, over a timeframe of years it's reasonable to think that even units in relatively poor condition could be refurbished or remanufactured. Probably better to think of that not as a count of present capabilities but an upper bound on the best case long term potential. In reality a lot of those parts will probably be cannibalized to repair other tanks. Conversely they probably have some tanks closer to the front being repaired or refurbished that weren't counted.
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Apr 10, 2023 14:38
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Well several factories did catch fire mid-2022 in what was speculated to be industrial accidents caused by ramping up production in already unsafe conditions.
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Apr 10, 2023 14:38
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ranbo das posted:One of the examples they give when they're telling you about what will get you in trouble when you're getting your first clearance is something classified being in the newspapers, on TV and on Wikipedia. Absolutely no one is losing a clearance because they saw the news talk about the pentagon papers or a twitter embed populated. The extreme dipshits are people who say they have clearances and seek out leaked documents to see for themselves. Bonus points if they’re so stupid that they comment, even obliquely, on their own take of the contents and/or repost those documents elsewhere or save them for their own files. Plenty enough total dipshits have done those things online over the last few days and talked about it.
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Apr 10, 2023 14:46
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evilweasel posted:People with security clearances can get in trouble for reading leaked secret documents, even if they're widely available. It is silly, yes, but that is the rule and that's people's concern (not that people without a security clearance can get in trouble - it is a key part of American law there is no law that criminalizes reading classified documents standing alone unless you conspired in leaking them). Even if it's published in one of the nation's largest newspapers like the New York Times or Washington Post? If true, would the DOJ actually prosecute someone for that? It seems ridiculous and a waste of time and human resources.
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Apr 10, 2023 14:57
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Eric Cantonese posted:So it's all just draining old stockpiles? Oh, no, they are making stuff, they just don't seem to be going all war economy or investing significant resources into making a lot more of it, as far as can be seen...
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Apr 10, 2023 14:59
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Charlz Guybon posted:Even if it's published in one of the nation's largest newspapers like the New York Times or Washington Post? To prosecute someone they would have to admit that they themselves have read the leaked materials in NYT!
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Apr 10, 2023 15:03
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Charlz Guybon posted:Even if it's published in one of the nation's largest newspapers like the New York Times or Washington Post? Mike Gravel was prosecuted for reading the Pentagon Papers into the record.
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Apr 10, 2023 15:06
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Charlz Guybon posted:Even if it's published in one of the nation's largest newspapers like the New York Times or Washington Post? They wouldn't prosecute someone, but they can yank your clearance and end your career.
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Apr 10, 2023 15:06
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karthun posted:They wouldn't prosecute someone, but they can yank your clearance and end your career. How does that in any way safeguard national security?
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Apr 10, 2023 15:31
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https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1645391986990411776?cxt=HHwWgMCzzezSzdUtAAAA Some cool footage of Ukrainian aircraft taking off on highways. WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 17:28 on Apr 10, 2023 |
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Apr 10, 2023 15:51
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Eric Cantonese posted:So it's all just draining old stockpiles? The Russians continue to produce munitions at pre-war rates as a baseline, with some possible exceptions for high-precision systems. But they're not going to have trouble sustaining pre-war production of say, 122/152mm artillery shells due to sanctions. Those rates aren't capable of sustaining current consumption on their own, but they do stretch out the time it takes to deplete stockpiles.
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Apr 10, 2023 15:52
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Charlz Guybon posted:How does that in any way safeguard national security? Who knows, it's not their job to write the rules to safeguard national security, it's their job to enforce the rules even if those rules don't safeguard national security.
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Apr 10, 2023 16:10
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Charlz Guybon posted:How does that in any way safeguard national security? The same way yanking clearances for using weed in states where it's legal safeguards national security: not at all. The rules are petty and stupid, but they are in fact the rules. The government literally forces contractors to force their employees to sit through online training every year, with powerpoint presentations and quizzes. They are very explicit that material being publicly reported does not make it unclassified, and that viewing it even by accident is a "reportable event" that you're supposed to let your clearance weenies know about. In practice, trawling WikiLeaks at work will get you 100% fired. Reading NYT usually won't, but if someone wants to gently caress with you specifically it theoretically could. They won't realistically find out about stuff you view at home, but they routinely ask people during renewal or the process for getting a higher clearance if they've viewed anything they shouldn't without reporting it. A lot of folks like to avoid situations where they need to explicitly lie to the federal government, even when it doesn't involve polygraph sessions.
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Apr 10, 2023 16:19
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Charlz Guybon posted:How does that in any way safeguard national security? I see you’re new to the federal government. “What works” and “what the requirements are” are usually barely aligned at best, and sometimes even contradictory!
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Apr 10, 2023 16:43
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Charlz Guybon posted:How does that in any way safeguard national security? Having it be normalized as a violation with potential career consequences discourages people from spreading the information and reduces the deniability of distributing controlled information that's been publicized, but less publicized than the largest outlets.
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Apr 10, 2023 16:49
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PederP posted:As an outsider what I find really frustrating is that it is very hard to figure out what the actual information landscape inside Russia looks like. I mean, we have plenty of unhinged people in my own country, and when international media cover Danish politics, what I see is not a very representative version of reality. I suspect the same goes for coverage of Russia (even if to a lesser extent as Russia is much more relevant in a global context and international media have a lot more available expertise and insight on Russia than on Denmark). So I am left wondering what pundits are we not hearing about? Who listens to the deranged politicians and pundits? How much influence do they have and what roles do they play as mouthpieces of various power structures and socio-political undercurrents? There's a lot of sensationalism going on in English language coverage, but as a first stop for a more informed coverage of political currents inside Russia, I would recommend Mark Galeotti's blog and podcast. He's a bit of a smug Brit, but he's usually decent at separating what's hot air and what's relevant. If you have the time to listen to his backlog, you'll have a lot of your questions answered eventually. If you want I could give you a list of journalists and academics whom I found to be noteworthy commentators over the last year. Edit: This is happening in a couple of weeks, if you have time. https://www.sciencespo.fr/fr/evenements/inside-russia-regime-stability-and-the-dynamics-of-public-opinion Hannibal Rex fucked around with this message at 17:06 on Apr 10, 2023 |
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Apr 10, 2023 16:59
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SlowBloke posted:https://open.spotify.com/track/3alm8yB9hq247ZqMAxHOMd This is great. Thank you.
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Apr 10, 2023 17:34
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Nenonen posted:I don't think you will end up in Guantanamo Bay for reading NY Times. Don't think the US is gonna be happy with expending, asspull number incoming, for example 100 Patriot missiles a month indefinitely. I kinda expect that this coming offensive with the Western AFVs is gonna produce inconclusive results and that after that ppl are gonna start thinking about how to freeze the territorial status quo? Surely Russia doesn't want to advance at Bakhmut speeds indefinitely, the West doesn't want to continue dumping ammo money and limited stocks of legacy systems into a bottomless pit, and Ukraine would like to have an economy again at some point.
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Apr 10, 2023 17:48
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The issue with any peace negotiations is it assumes that we're talking about peace, not a ceasefire while Russia rebuilds for a renewed offensive. Russian political objectives in Ukraine haven't been achieved and Putin believes the country is stable enough that he can continue with the current sanctions while he re-arms.
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Apr 10, 2023 18:00
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aphid_licker posted:Don't think the US is gonna be happy with expending, asspull number incoming, for example 100 Patriot missiles a month indefinitely. The west has thrown a LOT at this conflict, but there's still some more they can toss Ukraine's way. And it's not really bottomless, Russia will run out of economic/logistical support long before the West does, it's just a question of keeping up political support which so far isn't an issue despite the loud whining of those opposed. I don't think Ukraine will negotiate if this offensive stalls, yes it's hell on their economy but this is an existential war. If they give Russia a chance to recoup Russia will for certain launch another war when they're ready, and next time they'll have an even better chance of absolute victory cause they won't be grossly underestimating Ukraine's resistance. Plus next time there's no guarantee the West's support will still be there. They have Russia in a tight spot and the West backing them fully right now, this is their best shot to secure their nation.
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Apr 10, 2023 18:01
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Hannibal Rex posted:This New York Times article goes into some detail about the air defense situation, but it also includes screenshots of leaked documents, so it may not be safe for some. The CSPAM thread seems to think this means Ukraine will imminently be out of SAMs. But it seems like this was a document formed in anticipation of the situation, and the US/Allie’s have likely bolstered Ukrainian supplies by now? The docs are over 2 months old now. Certainly a medium to long term problem but I seriously doubt Ukraine is down to it’s like 4 SAMs or whatever (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 10, 2023 18:46
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Vice now reporting that the tranche of classified docs had some homebrew dnd material thrown in as well https://twitter.com/jason_koebler/status/1645482243056615426?t=PavCMg_xxBtQwbP1vP9Sew&s=19
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Apr 10, 2023 18:52
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Paracausal posted:Vice now reporting that the tranche of classified docs had some homebrew dnd material thrown in as well Good chance the leaker is left-handed.... Edit: also, Измир but Izmer? What version Cyrillic would that be? Edit #2: oh, Rubles as currency? So probably someone roleplaying a Russian whole not actually knowing the language or spelling. OddObserver fucked around with this message at 19:12 on Apr 10, 2023 |
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Apr 10, 2023 19:01
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Paracausal posted:Vice now reporting that the tranche of classified docs had some homebrew dnd material thrown in as well That's not D&D stats or class. Obviously a related TTRPG, though.
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Apr 10, 2023 19:04
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