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hobbez posted:The CSPAM thread seems to think this means Ukraine will imminently be out of SAMs. But it seems like this was a document formed in anticipation of the situation, and the US/Allie’s have likely bolstered Ukrainian supplies by now? The docs are over 2 months old now. I don't see how the leak changed anything since anti air capabilities have been talked about for a long time and were one of the top priorities for western aid for a long time. The situation might be dire or it might be bait to get the Russians to commit more of their airforce. We know that Russian air power has been making more of an appearance on the front line for weeks so this might have been already happening well before the leaks made it public.
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Apr 10, 2023 19:07
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I seriously wonder if this leak is someone bringing stuff home they shouldn't have, and a kid getting ahold of it and trying to score cool points online.
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Apr 10, 2023 19:08
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Ynglaur posted:I seriously wonder if this leak is someone bringing stuff home they shouldn't have, and a kid getting ahold of it and trying to score cool points online. If it is, they have been doing that for a long time. Trad Orthodox also sounds like a convert, so less likely to be a kid-kid. Edit: on second thought, it was apparently reposted from the racist server to the meme server by a kid, so maybe my expectations are out of whack. OddObserver fucked around with this message at 19:14 on Apr 10, 2023 |
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Apr 10, 2023 19:11
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hobbez posted:The CSPAM thread seems to think this means Ukraine will imminently be out of SAMs. But it seems like this was a document formed in anticipation of the situation, and the US/Allie’s have likely bolstered Ukrainian supplies by now? The docs are over 2 months old now. There is another problem that one of AFU officers mentioned off-hand in a recent video. The backbone of long-range defense for Ukraine have been S-300 launchers that it inherited from USSR. Ukraine does not make them, so there is nowhere to get replacements (they already got what they could from former Warsaw pact countries). But now they are also running out of parts to keep the ones they have running. This may be the reason Russian aviation has been a lot more active recently around Bakhmut and Vuhledar.
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Apr 10, 2023 19:17
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Deteriorata posted:That's not D&D stats or class. Obviously a related TTRPG, though. Sorry, used that as shorthand for ttrpg, it's actually a homebrew Call of Cthulhu sheet
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Apr 10, 2023 19:31
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OddObserver posted:Good chance the leaker is left-handed.... cyrillic and latin representations of turkic language vowels are kind of a crapshoot, but i wouldn't read too much into that either way
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Apr 10, 2023 19:41
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Charlz Guybon posted:How does [enforcing classification standards in hiring practices] safeguard national security? The thinking goes that the type of person you want in power handling classified materials would be the type of person that would voluntarily go out of their way to avoid them in the wild. Even if everyone else and their mother had access. There are a surprising amount of idealists left in government (despite best efforts to drive them out). The type that would stick around are exactly the folks that would hold classification standards to the letter of the law and assume that everyone else ought to as well. Now of course this starts looking pretty dumb as you go up the cynicism scale. It doesn’t help that there are obviously others in power/with access that would breach these principles. Clearly hiring standards didn’t safeguard these materials!
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Apr 10, 2023 19:57
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RedFlag posted:The thinking goes that the type of person you want in power handling classified materials would be the type of person that would voluntarily go out of their way to avoid them in the wild. Even if everyone else and their mother had access. The security questions for such roles/vetting processes always used to ask things like, "Do you drink", etc (in the bad old days they used to ask about your sexuality, as it was presumed if you were gay you would be vulnerable to blackmail). I wonder if nowdays they ask if you are an online gamer/play games like War Thunder. The nature of what is seen as a security risk evolves over time.
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Apr 10, 2023 22:00
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Tigey posted:
I can say that for a plain-jane Secret clearance, they do not ask. It's pretty bog-standard "do you hold foreign accounts" or "do you personally know a foreign government official" style questions. Also, the ever present "do you want to overthrow the government of the United States" lol.
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Apr 10, 2023 22:38
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Tigey posted:as it was presumed if you were gay you would be vulnerable to blackmail). In Charlie Stross' Laundry novels (about a magical intelligence agency trying to cope with Cthulhu), gay employees of the agency are required to attend Pride every year, because you can't blackmail someone for being gay if they're out. It's one of the clever little touches Stross does.
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Apr 10, 2023 22:48
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Dirt5o8 posted:I can say that for a plain-jane Secret clearance, they do not ask. It's pretty bog-standard "do you hold foreign accounts" or "do you personally know a foreign government official" style questions. Also, the ever present "do you want to overthrow the government of the United States" lol. Pretty recently the CEO of Raytheon had to comment on rumors that potential employees were asked if they play War Thunder, the answer is no they don't screen your video game time: https://gamerant.com/raytheon-war-thunder-players-not-national-security-risk/
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Apr 11, 2023 03:46
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Kyiv Independent article on Russian gliding bombs: https://kyivindependent.com/russias-smart-bombs-pose-increasingly-serious-threat-to-ukraine/ Selected quotes: quote:In March, Russian forces were also seen using munitions identified as 1,500-kilogram UPAB-1500B guided bombs in Avdiivka, which has become the target of devastating air strikes wiping away city blocks. quote:At the same time, the effective range is the problem. Ukrainian S-300 systems can cover a range of up to 75 kilometers, Buk-M1 systems — up to 35 kilometers. But if deployed in rear front areas, between 10 or 15 kilometers behind the front, Ukrainian systems would be almost inevitably spotted by Russian radio-electronic reconnaissance and targeted by any means available, including artillery. quote:The Ukrainian Air Force sees the best possible solution in acquiring modern multirole aircraft, particularly General Dynamics F-16s, along with AIM-120 air-to-air missiles.
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Apr 11, 2023 04:28
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One of the biggest reasons they ask people with security clearances not to read leaked documents, even after the horse has left the barn and everyone in the country already knows something about it, is because people with security clearances know things. The risk is that somewhere out in that big pool of people with TS clearance or whatever, one or a handful of them might know something from their own little corner of the DOD/CIA/whatever that is some piece of the overall informational puzzle, and when they combine their own information with the leaked information, they might now suddenly know WAY TOO MUCH about something. eg, in those leaked documents it's clear it's all based on some insane SIGINT capabilities on the US side. Someone looking at those documents who happens to be working on a specific surveillance project could see those, put 2+2 together, and realize the leak represents the product of their own work somehow. Then they see the other things leaked, and now they can extrapolate that whatever project they are doing aimed at, say, the Russian air force, must have also infiltrated their nuclear command or navy or whatever It's called compartmentalization for a reason.
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Apr 11, 2023 04:45
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I might be out of the loop as IT person but they're still printing off classified intelligence on paper? I'm surprised they don't hand out locked down PCs that have nearly everything with Digital Rights Management.
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Apr 11, 2023 04:55
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:I might be out of the loop as IT person but they're still printing off classified intelligence on paper? I'm surprised they don't hand out locked down PCs that have nearly everything with Digital Rights Management. Yeah, seeing this makes me think dealing with classified stuff as an engineer must be worlds different than a politician. Everything was scif only, all entries were logged, everything printed had watermarks detailing which printer, when, and which account ordered the job, nothing could be taken out of the secure rooms. Whereas intel briefings can just be forgotten and lying around some guy's house?
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Apr 11, 2023 05:21
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Franks Happy Place posted:One of the biggest reasons they ask people with security clearances not to read leaked documents, even after the horse has left the barn and everyone in the country already knows something about it, is because people with security clearances know things. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/10/egypt-weapons-russia/?itid=co_pentagon-leaks_3 quote:A portion of a top secret document, dated Feb. 17, summarizes purported conversations between Sisi and senior Egyptian military officials and also references plans to supply Russia with artillery rounds and gunpowder. In the document, Sisi instructs the officials to keep the production and shipment of the rockets secret “to avoid problems with the West.” The leaks suggest the CIA has access to the secret channels that the Egyptian military uses when they think they are hiding things from the West.
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Apr 11, 2023 06:18
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golden bubble posted:https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/10/egypt-weapons-russia/?itid=co_pentagon-leaks_3 So imagine you were one of the CIA agents translating those specific cables, and then you read all about this leak, and now you know that whatever program you're a part of isn't just some super well placed bug in an Egyptian SCIF or whatever, but, like, some new version of PRISM that's hacking every satellite on Earth at once or some other Skynet poo poo. That's why they opt instead for what seems like performative levels of deliberate ignorance.
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Apr 11, 2023 08:24
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golden bubble posted:https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/10/egypt-weapons-russia/?itid=co_pentagon-leaks_3 I mean that's the least surprising part of that story to me given that we know five-eyes intelligence put backdoors in Cisco routers, bugged the EU parliament's telecom network, and a whole bunch of other stuff I can't even keep track of. For a country like Egypt to assume that their Very Important poo poo doesn't immediately leak to the US seems downright naïve. My first thought was that probably some high-level official had a quiet word with their Egyptian counterpart to explain that the US could just withhold the billions it gives Egypt in military aid. The US govt's response when asked about this document (from the above article) is very specific: quote:A U.S. government official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to address sensitive information, said: “We are not aware of any execution of that plan,” referring to the rocket export initiative. “We have not seen that happen,” the official added. No denial of the document or of the plan, just that it wasn't ultimately executed.
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Apr 11, 2023 08:45
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Turns out that media has been getting access to previously undisclosed docs from the leak (or from the discord screenshots at least) that outline some core concerns about the coming months. https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1645693756182601728 https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1645697584311173120
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Apr 11, 2023 09:01
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It’s a bit  , but any chance the leak on Ukrainian weakness was intentional to manage expectations, both in terms of western public support and Russian defensive preparation?
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Apr 11, 2023 09:20
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:It’s a bit None really. You wouldn't leak so many documents straight to the Minecraft Discord servers or 4chan, you would just approach some WaPo journalist and tell them what to write. And the documents cover more than just Ukraine.
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Apr 11, 2023 09:26
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Paracausal posted:Turns out that media has been getting access to previously undisclosed docs from the leak (or from the discord screenshots at least) that outline some core concerns about the coming months. Importantly, “modest territorial gains” there seems to mean “less dramatic than Kherson and Kharkiv counteroffensives combined”, which shouldn't come as a notably surprising estimate to anyone following the news.
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Apr 11, 2023 09:51
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The Russians really have to get control of their smokers... https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-11/russia-volcano-eruption-aviation-warnings/102210562
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Apr 11, 2023 11:43
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Franks Happy Place posted:
Uh, if they were actually compartmentalized it would be unlikely a single person would be able to leak so much.
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Apr 11, 2023 13:04
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So I'm confused. So from what I understand the leaks are authentic, right? Could whoever leaked the classified material modified them?
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Apr 11, 2023 17:37
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Yes some versions are modified. Edit: but it probably wasn’t the original leaker.
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Apr 11, 2023 17:41
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Yes some versions are modified. To be more specific, there is an obvious poorly done alteration of at least one document that has happened somewhere in the Russian internet space that's not present in the earlier leaks of that same document. There is no obvious indication that those earlier leaks were altered, but it's not like normal people have originals to compare against. Some photos were taken with a bottle of paper glue in background, but I don't think the use of that would be invisible...
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Apr 11, 2023 17:45
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OddObserver posted:Some photos were taken with a bottle of paper glue in background, but I don't think the use of that would be invisible... Scissors, scotch tape or glue, ruler, and a good photocopier can actually be a pretty convincing way to modify text in a document that isn’t immediately apparent and is non digital.
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Apr 11, 2023 17:52
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Willo567 posted:So I'm confused. So from what I understand the leaks are authentic, right? Could whoever leaked the classified material modified them? What we know for (almost) sure is that 1) there's been a major leak, 2) a hamfisted modification of one of the images seemingly part of the original leak was visibly boosted by the Russian propaganda apparatus. Absence of other modifications or the general authenticity of JPEGs floating around cannot be reasonably established using publicly available information.
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Apr 11, 2023 18:14
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Yeah the chain of events appears to be 1: Documents leaked earlier this year on some random Discord server -> 2: Some Russian bad actors found them and did some modifications like inflating Ukrainian and reducing Russian casualties (by just switching them around lol) -> Telegram/Russian media boosted the altered documents which lead reporters down the rabbit hole to the original source -> US intel community went "oh poo poo."
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Apr 11, 2023 18:22
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I mean if you were going to push some disinformation out there and/or shake up some poo poo this would be the way I'd do it. Put documents that have a bit of truth out there with a lot of not into the wind. Have authorities state that they are "real" which could mean anything really. Hope the enemy has to second guess everything, even the parts they know are true. I am leaning toward this being a disinfo operation just because there is likely a VERY small handful of people whom would have access to that much classified info, especially outside of a tightly controlled setting. Those that would have that wouldn't jeopardize their status and likely life to post them on a Minecraft Discord for the lulz. Also the NSA would likely be on whoever did it in seconds since it isn't like it is rocket science to figure out who would have had access to all of the above and who could have done it. The fact that we haven't heard of any movement in an arrest should be a huge smoking gun there. Granted we live in the stupidest timeline so it could very well be some stupid Senator who brought this poo poo home and their kid posted it.
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Apr 11, 2023 18:26
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OddObserver posted:Uh, if they were actually compartmentalized it would be unlikely a single person would be able to leak so much. And yet the original person who had all those documents, who likely had an insane security clearance, didn't know anything specific about the SIGINT operation used to acquire that intelligence. There's probably dozens of different specific ops being referenced or pulled from in those reports, but zero indication what they are. Even when people are authorized to know the product of the intelligence, they almost never get to know any specifics about the gathering part, especially when there's human agents or something really sensitive involved. That's it, that's the point. (This is getting into a derail but to tack back on course a bit, I am very suspicious that the Russians in particular are extremely compromised in some critical way, as it appears they are the common denominator in a lot of these reports)
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Apr 11, 2023 18:37
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I guess I'm confused because the Economist piece confirmed that the leak was authentic and that the author talked to officials who said it was serious and damaginf, but at the same time the UK Defense Ministry is calling the leaks seriously inaccurate. https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1645817692148883456
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Apr 11, 2023 18:47
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Willo567 posted:I guess I'm confused because the Economist piece confirmed that the leak was authentic and that the author talked to officials who said it was serious and damaginf, but at the same time the UK Defense Ministry is calling the leaks seriously inaccurate. This is likely because doctored version(s) of the leaked documents have been circulated.
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Apr 11, 2023 19:22
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Willo567 posted:I guess I'm confused because the Economist piece confirmed that the leak was authentic and that the author talked to officials who said it was serious and damaginf, but at the same time the UK Defense Ministry is calling the leaks seriously inaccurate. That's also deliberate disinformation, to get people to wonder what parts are inaccurate and not trust any of it - possibly reducing some of its impact. Intelligence agencies in damage control mode tend to spout a lot of contradictory bullshit in order to confuse the issue.
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Apr 11, 2023 19:26
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Djarum posted:I mean if you were going to push some disinformation out there and/or shake up some poo poo this would be the way I'd do it. Put documents that have a bit of truth out there with a lot of not into the wind. Have authorities state that they are "real" which could mean anything really. Hope the enemy has to second guess everything, even the parts they know are true. The very very optimistic assessment would be its disinfo to encourage Russia to expend as many of its assets as possible in the near future to get to the fabled Ukrainian exhaustion point in May. At which point Ukraine can then go "gotcha!" and go on the offensive instead. The more realistic / hilariously awful reality is probably a senator's Discord loving teenage relative using grandad/dad's documents to win an internet argument. The fact they're printed off in the first place and not digital would probably support the case they belong to some old person.
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Apr 11, 2023 19:33
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The parts about Ukraine running low on air defence missiles is probably accurate as it seems the rate of sorties by Russian aircraft hitting Bakhmut has increased and we’re hearing more news about air attacks in general. I think the biggest risk for Ukraine right now remains their air defence situation. Russia is the main producer of surface to air missile tech in the world. They control the supply of the largest volume for that type of mechanism. US Patriot missiles and NASMs are very expensive and not as numerous. It makes logical sense since most NATO countries rely on their airforces to fight other air threats and then suppress any long range weapons systems. Ukraine doesn’t have that luxury and it’s not exactly easy to astroturf an airforce when your entire country is exposed to long range bombardment. So I imagine that is going to result in Russian airforces taking more risks and inflicting more damage until the west decides to ratchet up their escalation another notch and maybe find some kind of weapon to replace the capabilities of the S-300s.
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Apr 11, 2023 19:44
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https://www.vice.com/en/article/7kxvpb/leaked-pentagon-docs-share-wild-rumor-kremlin-plans-to-throw-putins-war-while-hes-getting-chemo "Leaked Pentagon Docs Share Wild Rumor: Kremlin Plans to ‘Throw’ Putin’s War While He’s Getting Chemo" Even if this isn't true, bonus points if Putin really has cancer and he becomes too paranoid to get treatment.
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Apr 11, 2023 20:02
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Willo567 posted:I guess I'm confused because the Economist piece confirmed that the leak was authentic and that the author talked to officials who said it was serious and damaginf, but at the same time the UK Defense Ministry is calling the leaks seriously inaccurate. “Serious” is an unquantified term. It could mean anything. They are saying don’t take the leaks at face value because you don’t know the whole picture.
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Apr 11, 2023 20:13
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Djarum posted:I mean if you were going to push some disinformation out there and/or shake up some poo poo this would be the way I'd do it. Put documents that have a bit of truth out there with a lot of not into the wind. Have authorities state that they are "real" which could mean anything really. Hope the enemy has to second guess everything, even the parts they know are true. However, Western assessments about both Russia and Ukraine have been wrong and very wrong in the past. We can hope that in reality, Ukraine's offensive prospects are much better than these leaks imply.
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Apr 11, 2023 20:23
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