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fatherboxx)
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Willo567 posted:Ukraine isn't happy that the U.S. thinks fhey'll only make modest territorial gains in the counter offensive For starters, Russia was running out of people in Ukraine, and Ukraine now has ~20 western tanks.
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Apr 13, 2023 02:29
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Willo567 posted:Ukraine isn't happy that the U.S. thinks fhey'll only make modest territorial gains in the counter offensive To be fair, Western assessments of Kherson and Kharkiv were generally not expecting as much success as they had, particularly Kharkiv. On top of that base level pessimism (which is probably healthy, up to a point) Russia has mobilized several hundred thousand troops since then and has had all winter to dig in and build defenses, giving them more bodies and more fortifications than they had in either of those offensives. Kharkiv in particular collapsed spectacularly because they were spread very thinly, which is not true anymore. That doesn't mean Ukraine can't pull it off, but it won't be easy.
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Apr 13, 2023 02:31
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Willo567 posted:How come it's expected that it won't be as big of a gain as Kherson or Kharkiv was despite Ukraine now having western tanks? Kharkiv was a surprise attack on an barely-defended part of the line that the Russians had not anticipated. There is really no possibility of something like that now that the lines are so much shorter and better fortified. There are no longer any such soft spots left to attack.
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Apr 13, 2023 02:39
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The identity of the leaker is getting closer to being confirmed, interviews to come; https://twitter.com/shaneharris/status/1646326727872749576 https://twitter.com/shaneharris/status/1646331360577986562
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Apr 13, 2023 03:05
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Willo567 posted:How come it's expected that it won't be as big of a gain as Kherson or Kharkiv was despite Ukraine now having western tanks? Tanks are not that important. Artillery is still the queen of battlefield and the relative shortage of shells is going to hamper any large operations. Lack of air superiority doesn't make this any better, that's the preferred method of USA. Russia has also held the initiative so far and we don't know how much reserves Ukraine has had to deploy to support Bakhmut and other vulnerable areas that are not going to be fresh for the new offensive.
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Apr 13, 2023 03:39
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Paracausal posted:The identity of the leaker is getting closer to being confirmed, interviews to come; (Edit: I am blind) https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1646328264569356288 US media not calling right-wing white criminals "charismatic" challenge.
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Apr 13, 2023 03:40
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To be clear, the interviews aren't with the leaker, they're with someone from the server where it's believed the leaks occurred. The interviewee's a minor.
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Apr 13, 2023 03:49
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To briefly summarize the leaker appeared to be some right wing 20something guy who was leaking the info in his private discord server for... clout with high schooler military nerds.quote:OG was the undisputed leader. The member described him as “strict.” He enforced a “pecking order” and expected the others to read closely the classified information he had shared. When their attention waned, he got angry.
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Apr 13, 2023 04:02
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The whole story is worth reading. Absolutely mind-boggling circumstances and behavior all around. Fans of a youtuber who does glam videos of cool new guns and paramilitary gear split off into a smaller discord server of like 25 kids to play games together and this guy plays Alpha to the group and just starts spouting off about the government and the real way of the world they won't tell you about and please guys read all these secret documents pay more attention to this you're not taking it seriously enough!  Oh btw half the members of the discord are foreign nationals, mostly Russians and Eastern Euros. The two kids they interviewed still love the Alpha and think he was right, the real criminal is the other member of the discord who shared with wow_mao's discord. Also they are all white nationalists who throw around slurs all the time. Just your average cozy private discord family really.
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Apr 13, 2023 04:17
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My favorite part is he had been posting classified info for a long time it's just that none of the kids cared since it wasn't game related.
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Apr 13, 2023 04:50
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Jimlit posted:My favorite part is he had been posting classified info for a long time it's just that none of the kids cared since it wasn't game related. The anti-warthunder to be frank, peak zoomerleaks.
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Apr 13, 2023 04:59
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Just amazing that some rando that would post top secret files for clout had access to all this information. I could see something like this for one topic or one area, but for all these different areas of intelligence. Wow.
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Apr 13, 2023 05:34
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fool of sound posted:“these long and drawn-out posts in which he’d often add annotations and explanations for stuff that we normal citizens would not understand,” yeah that's what id be telling the courts too . please, I'm just a humble idiot
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Apr 13, 2023 05:59
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My first car was a stick
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I don't even understand why these idiots are talking to reporters or what they're trying to say. I'm telling the reporter I know everything but I will go to prison before I reveal the name of the leaker, who btw is my bff.
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Apr 13, 2023 06:13
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they're minors aka idiots
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Apr 13, 2023 06:16
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Willo567 posted:How come it's expected that it won't be as big of a gain as Kherson or Kharkiv was despite Ukraine now having western tanks? Because two brigades of Western tanks are not going to liberate all of Ukraine by themselves. They will most likely help achieve a tactical victory, but are not invulnerable hell machines, they're just better tanks. And Ukraine doesn't have that many of them. It's *possible* Russia's defenses will collapse when faced with a strong assault but it's not *probable*. Russian forces have been digging in for the past 6 months and while they've been throwing away troops in Donbas that's almost certainly not where the offensive is likely to hit.
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Apr 13, 2023 06:45
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Did some bored twenty something right-wing military member or contractor get trigged and decided to leak a bunch of stuff for attention? Am I getting this right?
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Apr 13, 2023 08:04
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Did some bored twenty something right-wing military member or contractor get trigged and decided to leak a bunch of stuff for attention? He did it to ascend to posting Valhalla.
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Apr 13, 2023 08:57
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You would think they learned their lesson after Snowdon but no. The number of special forces in Ukraine and the number of tanks donated need a "0" added at the end but the number of US personnel (and contractors and temps and interns) with access to "sorta-secret" documents needs at least a "0" less at the end. Given the content of the stuff leaked this also does not seem the lowest/lower level of clearance to me, at least not what I would put in those levels.
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Apr 13, 2023 09:06
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EmployeeOfTheMonth posted:You would think they learned their lesson after Snowdon but no. The number of special forces in Ukraine and the number of tanks donated need a "0" added at the end but the number of US personnel (and contractors and temps and interns) with access to "sorta-secret" documents needs at least a "0" less at the end. Given the content of the stuff leaked this also does not seem the lowest/lower level of clearance to me, at least not what I would put in those levels. This is what makes it suspicious to me, if it's a fairly accurate summary with secret information for high brass with some pessimistic evaluations and info on snooping on allies, why does some low level guy have it? We'll probably not find out but it's still possible this is a controlled leak for some expectation management and public disinfo.
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Apr 13, 2023 09:18
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Somaen posted:This is what makes it suspicious to me, if it's a fairly accurate summary with secret information for high brass with some pessimistic evaluations and info on snooping on allies, why does some low level guy have it? If it's a controlled leak to manage expectations about things in Ukraine, why did it have information about how the US had been spying on its allies and partners all over the world... things that are anywhere from embarrassing to hurtful to US interests?
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Apr 13, 2023 09:48
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Somaen posted:This is what makes it suspicious to me, if it's a fairly accurate summary with secret information for high brass with some pessimistic evaluations and info on snooping on allies, why does some low level guy have it? If the person is former military that got out after their first stint, it’d make sense for them to be mid-20’s. They’d still be low-level in the context of their organization (being new-ish), that doesn’t mean they don’t have access to some wild stuff that they would be doing/briefing to their higher-ups. The people that do some sort of intel job in their first tour and come out with a security clearance of TS (with various modifiers) have an easy-ish road to going to work for an intel agency in some capacity, and those clearances are otherwise difficult/expensive to get.
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Apr 13, 2023 10:30
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Somaen posted:This is what makes it suspicious to me, if it's a fairly accurate summary with secret information for high brass with some pessimistic evaluations and info on snooping on allies, why does some low level guy have it? Frankly your grasping at "this has to be planned" straws here. Yes, it seems really stupid, but most things in life are. Chelsea Manning walked a huge load of classified material out of a building on a personal device, IIRC.
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Apr 13, 2023 12:25
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My old man was an able seaman for 12 years (the minimum sign-up period in the 60's) in the Aussie navy, a (S) radio operator which mum didn't even know for decades after he got out except that nice fellows with suits would very occasionally come and visit when dad was at work and ask lots of polite questions which basically boiled down to seeing what she knew that she could only know if dad had told her something. Which seemed odd treatment for a bog standard enlisted sailor long after he got out and working for a commercial radio station. So many tasks require low level grunt work* and security clearances are based upon need, not rank or privilege. A super high clearance fellow found in the wrong room (ie, he didn't need to be there), even if it was far lower clearance then that person carried, would basically be a career ender. On the flip-side, there would be lowest of the low enlisted in the same room doing drudgework. *One of the tasks they (the sekret squirrel enlisted) enjoyed was having a full day in the city to go burn all the sekret squiril stuff upon coming alongside in say Singapore. Which meant enlisted men planning to go get hosed up in the city after the job was complete were also in possession of lots of very sensitive stuff. But it was better that then some Big Cheese Officer having to go do something so boring and laborious. Also on the numbers of people that could be in the loop. The US love using three guys where the brits or Aussies would get by with one - just look at the manning on a USN warship doing sub patrols versus a RN one. Mostly through brit cultural meanness but it did inherently allow for much tighter control for need to know limiting of audience.
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Apr 13, 2023 13:27
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Either way, we don't have enough adjectives in the English language to describe just how hosed this guy is.
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Apr 13, 2023 14:30
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Moon Slayer posted:Either way, we don't have enough adjectives in the English language to describe just how hosed this guy is. That's assuming he is still in the country.
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Apr 13, 2023 14:49
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Comedy option: it turns out to be Junior.
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Apr 13, 2023 15:08
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hailthefish posted:celebrating your 87th birthday in leavenworth because your christofascist militia sycophants didn't have enough appreciation for the hard work you were doing preparing briefings on stolen classified intel for them
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Apr 13, 2023 15:18
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Moon Slayer posted:Either way, we don't have enough adjectives in the English language to describe just how hosed this guy is. If you are spying for a foreign power, you might get smuggled out of the country. If you are leaking for ideological reasons, you might score a presidential pardon from a sympathetic lame duck. No one is going to help someone trying to impress bored, teenage white supremacists.
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Apr 13, 2023 15:35
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Did some bored twenty something right-wing military member or contractor get trigged and decided to leak a bunch of stuff for attention? It's Occam's razor, but with 'simplest' explanation replaced with 'dumbest'. As seems to be the style these days.
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Apr 13, 2023 15:46
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Somaen posted:This is what makes it suspicious to me, if it's a fairly accurate summary with secret information for high brass with some pessimistic evaluations and info on snooping on allies, why does some low level guy have it? I am guessing that it was considered to be "not that secret". You know the joke that US Army lives and dies by a PowerPoint presentation? This was probably a series of internal briefings some drone organized to imitate some work. And they probably approached both the source material and the audience control in a lax manner. The original leaker was likely there to take notes for someone who was really invited.
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Apr 13, 2023 16:02
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mrfart posted:It's Occam's razor, but with 'simplest' explanation replaced with 'dumbest'. I think what you are looking for is Hanlon's razor: "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."
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Apr 13, 2023 16:03
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I dont know posted:If you are spying for a foreign power, you might get smuggled out of the country. If you are leaking for ideological reasons, you might score a presidential pardon from a sympathetic lame duck. No one is going to help someone trying to impress bored, teenage white supremacists. If he gets to Russia he probably has a TV guest gig waiting for him. Good chance he gets arrested in Bulgaria or something, though.
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Apr 13, 2023 16:12
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OddObserver posted:If he gets to Russia he probably has a TV guest gig waiting for him. Good chance he gets arrested We're not exactly dealing with a master of espionage here.
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Apr 13, 2023 16:31
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NPR has a report about Brazil and it's relation to Russia/China and their role in what's going on in Ukraine. While its mostly about the China/Russia relationship, it talks about going into the Brix and wants to be a mediator in Ukraine to help bring an end to the war. They haven't given anything to Ukraine and has sent foreign policy advisors to Russia but knows they are in a rock in a hard place with the US.
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Apr 13, 2023 16:31
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Paracausal posted:zoomerleaks. Trademark that! As a side this guy needs to find a good lawyer asap. Burns fucked around with this message at 16:50 on Apr 13, 2023 |
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Apr 13, 2023 16:32
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I dont know posted:No one is going to help someone trying to impress bored, teenage white supremacists. I can think of exactly one person who might do exactly that
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Apr 13, 2023 16:40
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Moon Slayer posted:We're not exactly dealing with a master of espionage here. They'll just mobilize him and send him to Bakhmut.
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Apr 13, 2023 16:50
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https://mobile.twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1646544312170053633 As a Boston resident, I don't understand why our Air National Guard has an "intelligence wing". (Also, our republicans are extra-crazy...)
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Apr 13, 2023 17:21
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OddObserver posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1646544312170053633 It's what they repurposed Joint Base Cape Cod to do, I thought.
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Apr 13, 2023 17:25
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