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Grittybeard posted:If we traveled back in time 30 years or so Bijan's at least hovering around the discussion for first overall I think. Remember that year 3 RBs went in the top 5
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Apr 13, 2023 03:25
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Ki-Jana Carter was literally the death knell of the concept of a runningback going 1st overall, since him the highest an RB has gone is 2nd and the only two who went that high were Ronnie Brown and Reggie Bush which is lmaoa neat cape posted:Remember that year 3 RBs went in the top 5 that was the Ronnie Brown year and the other two RBs drafted in the top 5 after him were Cedric Benson and Cadillac Williams the other two players drafted in the top 5 that year were Alex Smith and Braylon Edwards. 2005 was a hell of a year Alaois fucked around with this message at 03:32 on Apr 13, 2023 |
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Apr 13, 2023 03:29
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Fournette went top 4 like 5 years ago. McCaffrey went 8th in the same draft. Both went ahead of Mahomes and Watson.
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Apr 13, 2023 03:31
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I still remember being pissed off when we took Tomlinson top 5 because I really wanted Vick
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Apr 13, 2023 03:41
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It is correct to not draft RBs with high picks. Between the fungibility of rbs, the opportunity cost, and positional value, a team would get better average utility from investing that pick somewhere else.
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Apr 13, 2023 03:49
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Even when you do get a great running back with a first round pick it doesn't tend to work out.
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Apr 13, 2023 04:11
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Kalli posted:Even when you do get a great running back with a first round pick it doesn't tend to work out. When you pick a great player that means it works out lol
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Apr 13, 2023 04:33
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Ornery and Hornery posted:It is correct to not draft RBs with high picks. Between the fungibility of rbs, the opportunity cost, and positional value, a team would get better average utility from investing that pick somewhere else. Which is the dumb draft equivalent of saying there's a hold on every play. RBs aren't fungible. How do you replace someone who can get to the edge in under two seconds with someone who is a worse athlete? How do you find a pass catching and pass blocking RB late? Opportunity cost is easily figured out when you're working with money but these are human beings. There's nothing to say that the guy you took instead of the RB is going to have the same career on your team. Positional value is still there. 15 RBs last year brought thousand yard seasons with a bunch of TDs to their teams. Every position is valuable and, more importantly, every high end athlete is valuable. Where does it say a team will get better average utility from investing the pick elsewhere? Do you have anything to prove that a DE getting 8 sacks his rookie year is better than a RB getting 950 yards his rookie year? Did we suddenly figure out WAR for football? Ignoring everything, do you want to give the ball to a guy who runs slower and cuts slower than a guy who is better? Do you really want to hang your team's run game on the Shonne Greenes of the world? Just throwing away a whole year hoping that your 5th round RB isn't a plodder.
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Apr 13, 2023 04:43
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The point is that the skill floor and ceiling between folks that are drafted to play RB is not very far apart, or at the worst achievable by a committee if you need multiple skill sets. The skill gap between other positions is far greater which makes the individual more important.
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Apr 13, 2023 04:50
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I would like Bijan on the Chargers very badly
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Apr 13, 2023 04:51
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a neat cape posted:Remember that year 3 RBs went in the top 5 I will never forget it because my dumbass team was one of them when Thomas Jones was still on the loving roster.
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Apr 13, 2023 04:56
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2 top 5 pick RBs from the same school
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Apr 13, 2023 05:16
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the school of hard knocks who's ready to rock
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Apr 13, 2023 05:35
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Over the last ten years, the following running backs were drafted in the first round Todd Gurley Melvin Gordon Ezekiel Elliott Leonard Fournette Christian McCaffrey Saquon Barkley Rashaad Penny Sony Michel Josh Jacobs Clyde Edwards-Helaire Najee Harris Travis Etienne The guys who went top ten are Gurley, Barkley, Zeke, CMC, and 4net. I don't think the rest were in the same tier are those guys as prospects. I think Bijan is. I think the only team that really regrets taking a running back in the top ten is Jacksonville. If you tell me there's an 80% chance I'm getting a top three NFL running back with my first rounder, I'm taking it. Give me Bijan.
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Apr 13, 2023 05:51
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Gurley made it four seasons in LA before falling off and was gone after year five Saquon's had three good years and two bad/injury years and it's looking iffy if he stays in NY past year six Zeke made it seven years in Dallas but was average at best after year four (and became known as an overpaid/overused/overrated guy as soon as he hit his second contract) McCaffrey had 3.33 healthy years in Carolina before leaving and he's arguably the biggest success story of any team drafting a RB in the top 10 over the past decade (in part because they at least got some picks back for him) It's not that a first round RB can't be an impact player, it's that even if you hit a home run, the position has such a short shelf life that it's still unlikely to pay off the same way it would if you hit on a prospect at any other position. It's arguably worth it if you've got very few holes on your roster and are in position to contend right away, but that tends to not be the case for teams picking in the top 10.
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Apr 13, 2023 07:00
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xbilkis posted:Gurley made it four seasons in LA before falling off and was gone after year five I definitely agree with the latter part of your post. If the Bills took Bijan it would be a smart pick because they simply don't get enough production from the position. At times they seem to be on the cusp, but they really lack a plan B if Allen 2 Diggs doesn't click. I also think they should send their second for hopkins if that's the price because they'd immediately fix their offensive woes that pop up from time to time. I didn't mind the move when the Chiefs drafted CEH, even if that didn't really work out. I also like going high in the second if you get a good building block in the first like the Jets did with Breece. I think running backs can have pretty much immediate impact and turn either a terrible offense into an average one or a good one into an elite one, and if you hit you can pick up the 5th year option, slap 'em with the tag, and let them walk at 27 or 28 after riding them into the dirt for 5 or 6 years. I know Travis Etienne hasn't exactly blown the league away, but he had 1500 scrimmage yards last year. I'd rather him than like... Isiah Simmons.
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Apr 13, 2023 11:37
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I think there's more point in selecting RBs high when you're a contender looking to add a final piece. Bijan to the Bills would make a lot of sense. Whereas Saquon is a great player, but by the time the giants got good, they're in this place where they have to pay him too much or lose him. Jags might end up in the same place with Etienne.
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Apr 13, 2023 12:09
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The Jets offense doesn’t move the ball without Breece Hall last year and he’s a large reason they were 5-2 or whatever they were when he went down. They were crucified by the analytics guys for taking him over like a safety when they had so many holes. I maintain having good players is good though. 
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Apr 13, 2023 12:28
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I think you shouldn't take an RB with a pick in the first half of the first round. Past that, go wild.
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Apr 13, 2023 13:23
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I’d rather the panthers had drafted Mahomes instead of cmc if we’re being honest.
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Apr 13, 2023 13:46
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I suppose I assumed Calijah Kancey would be in the running for the Hawks but apparently he is short and has short arms which is not great for D Line Getting curious about Keeanu Benton though
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Apr 13, 2023 14:22
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Yes thank you god Zimbo don’t stop https://twitter.com/joshnorris/status/1646504631629934592?s=46&t=JBd6ZXmGQ3LmWL-ineTnAA
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Apr 13, 2023 14:32
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tarbrush posted:I think there's more point in selecting RBs high when you're a contender looking to add a final piece. Bijan to the Bills would make a lot of sense. By the same token, if he falls to 10, he would make a ton of sense for the Eagles - as great as the offense was last year, adding a stud pass-catching back could take them into Greatest Show on Turf territory and give them a chance to win a shootout with anyone in the league. I don't think it'll happen, but I think it's an example of a case where a team would be perfectly justified in taking a RB in the top 10.
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Apr 13, 2023 14:45
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Darnell Washington would make a ton of sense in Seattle too. Maybe they'd finally be able to run a screen successfully. Just one, at least.
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Apr 13, 2023 14:54
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https://twitter.com/NFL_DovKleiman/status/1646512058970828802
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Apr 13, 2023 14:55
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I will never care about anything Adam Schefter has to say.
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Apr 13, 2023 15:09
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It's so weird. Two weeks ago the consensus was that the Panthers would take Stroud. I wonder how the Texans feel about him.
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Apr 13, 2023 15:11
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 team doing their due diligence is a waste of time is a hilariously bad take
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Apr 13, 2023 15:22
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Regarding the chat about s2 upthread…. https://twitter.com/johnhcrumpler/status/1646518633781432323?s=46&t=JBd6ZXmGQ3LmWL-ineTnAA This is like me almost having got a perfect SAT score, but I was part of a Duke program since 6th grade where I took it twice a year and they tracked my progress.
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Apr 13, 2023 15:26
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I wouldn't penalize him for being prepared and putting in prior work. Just shows how much more ready and polished he is, imo. For the SAT comparison, kids do actually prepare on practice tests for years, too.
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Apr 13, 2023 15:30
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 He can throw a tight spiral after a flawless 5-step drop? Big deal, he's been practicing that since 6th grade.
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Apr 13, 2023 15:34
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No Butt Stuff posted:I will never care about anything Adam Schefter has to say. I would really love it if all goons collectively unfollowed Dov Kleiman
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Apr 13, 2023 15:39
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SKULL.GIF posted:
Throwing a football seems more relevant to playing QB than taking a test but maybe I’m overthinking things here.
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Apr 13, 2023 15:46
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I think the point is the guys who haven't had access are naturally going to look worse by comparison, so it isn't necessarily a fair benchmark. There's also the very important fact that there is no real evidence this test is predictive in any way.
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Apr 13, 2023 15:54
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The only standardized test I need is watching the high standard that CJ holds himself to
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Apr 13, 2023 16:02
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The Athletic had a writeup on the S2 test: https://theathletic.com/4226466/2023/02/24/nfl-quarterbacks-s2-cognition-test/ Some excerpts: quote:The exam lasts 40 to 45 minutes. It’s performed on a specially designed gaming laptop and response pad that can record reactions in two milliseconds. To put that in perspective, an eye blink lasts 100 to 150 milliseconds. quote:He couldn’t give out Purdy’s exact score because it’s privileged information but said it was in the “mid 90s.” That’s about where Brees, the former Saints quarterback famous for lightning-fast decision-making, scored and where two of the top passers in the league now, the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and the Bills’ Josh Allen, also landed. The Bengals’ Joe Burrow took the test while at LSU and agreed to allow S2 to disclose the information. quote:The company recently looked at 27 starting quarterbacks. (Some of the older veterans like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers had entered the league before S2 began testing in 2015 and there are no scores for them; Brees took the test while already playing in the NFL.) Of that group, 13 had a career passer rating above 90. The average S2 score of those players was the 91st percentile. Those with passer ratings below 90 had much lower test results.
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Apr 13, 2023 16:04
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Oh so that's why nobody has said what Stroud scored. I'm still waiting to hear for sure that he scored low if we're going to be passing that info on
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Apr 13, 2023 16:08
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i scored well on that flash game where you click as soon as it says. 2002 kicked rear end
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Apr 13, 2023 16:13
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kiimo posted:I would really love it if all goons collectively unfollowed Dov Kleiman Yeah, hasn't this guy been outed multiple times now as either an aggregator or clickbaiter? Why are we still posting the account's tweets like they're gospel?
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Apr 13, 2023 16:22
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Standardized tests using passer rating to determine QB goodness percentiles. Throw it in the trash.
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Apr 13, 2023 16:28
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