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There have been a great number of tank-on-tank battles, but the war is not dominated by armored spearheads smashing together as envisioned by cold war theorists. And at least on the Russian side, a lot of the defensive tank use is just sniping with tank-launched ATGM.
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Apr 14, 2023 15:15
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This story includes some content from the leak. Russia’s commando units gutted by Ukraine war, U.S. leak shows Russia’s clandestine spetsnaz forces have been put to use alongside the infantry, suffering massive numbers of dead and wounded quote:The war in Ukraine has gutted Russia’s clandestine spetsnaz forces, and it will take Moscow years to rebuild them, according to classified U.S. assessments obtained by The Washington Post. This largely underlines the problems Russia's created for itself by using whatever "elite" units it could find as speartips, over and over. Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 16:04 on Apr 14, 2023 |
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Apr 14, 2023 15:38
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It certainly aligns with a bunch of the russian voenkors complaining about how spetsnaz recon/infiltration units were getting used as assault forces both to little effect and at huge cost, particularly back around the time of the Kharkiv offensive.
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Apr 14, 2023 15:46
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Discendo Vox posted:This story includes some content from the leak- let me know if any of it needs to be spoilered or something. I'm perfectly content with the presence of an upfront warning, you're good.
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Apr 14, 2023 16:02
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Discendo Vox posted:This story includes some content from the leak. It's strange how Russia seems to be trying to win a long war, but also uses up all its most expensive resources for minimal short-term gains. Spetsnaz, tanks, artillery etc would be much more useful against a Ukraine that has expended all its resources on counteroffensives. It would make more sense for Russia to be on the defensive, since Ukraine clearly wants its land back. Is Russia not trying to win a long war? What's the rush?
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Apr 14, 2023 16:18
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Storkrasch posted:It's strange how Russia seems to be trying to win a long war, but also uses up all its most expensive resources for minimal short-term gains. Spetsnaz, tanks, artillery etc would be much more useful against a Ukraine that has expended all its resources on counteroffensives. Probably same sorta reasoning you see companies doing short term stuff to juice their stocks, or police agencies playing around with crime reporting, there are short term incentives that trump long term considerations.
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Apr 14, 2023 16:23
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Russia (read:Putin) expected the war to be done quickly, and for all we know might still expect it to be done soon. Given that failure to win is going to be political and probably literal death to him, he might be just trying to delay the inevitable. Also incompetence. That possibility is always on the table.
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Apr 14, 2023 16:26
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Storkrasch posted:It's strange how Russia seems to be trying to win a long war, but also uses up all its most expensive resources for minimal short-term gains. Spetsnaz, tanks, artillery etc would be much more useful against a Ukraine that has expended all its resources on counteroffensives. It's the brain-dead "quantity has a quality all its own" thinking, that Russia just has to throw enough numbers at Ukraine and winning is inevitable.
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Apr 14, 2023 16:28
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Storkrasch posted:It's strange how Russia seems to be trying to win a long war, but also uses up all its most expensive resources for minimal short-term gains. Spetsnaz, tanks, artillery etc would be much more useful against a Ukraine that has expended all its resources on counteroffensives. I mean they didn't initially plan on this being a long war. So who knows what idiotic decisions they've made after it turned out that Ukrainians were going to fight back. Also there is probably a LOT of rear end covering going on in the Russian military so that probably contributes to a lot of the boneheaded moves they've made.
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Apr 14, 2023 16:29
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Rorac posted:Also incompetence. That possibility is always on the table. At some points, it certainly looked plausible that Putin himself was intervening in a tactical capacity, which would've been virtually guaranteed to work out worse than whatever the career military planners would come up with.
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Apr 14, 2023 16:30
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Rorac posted:Russia (read:Putin) expected the war to be done quickly, and for all we know might still expect it to be done soon. Given that failure to win is going to be political and probably literal death to him, he might be just trying to delay the inevitable. Also: individual commanders have incentives that don't line up with overall success. You don't want to personally fail, successful offensives are career-enhancing while defenses...less so, etc etc. Countries aren't people and decisions are made by people whose incentives differ.
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Apr 14, 2023 16:32
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Also, it feels like Putin wants to maintain the big bad Russian Army/special forces and wants to find a victory for them to say, SEE FEAR US.
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Apr 14, 2023 16:41
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Didn't the US throw a lot of their special forces into the spearheads of the Iraqi invasion? Maybe Putin got envious.
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Apr 14, 2023 16:52
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Mooseontheloose posted:Also, it feels like Putin wants to maintain the big bad Russian Army/special forces and wants to find a victory for them to say, SEE FEAR US. Russia's future military flex will simply be reminding everyone they have nukes every time someone does something they don't like. You know, like they already are.
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Apr 14, 2023 17:15
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Do the nukes even, like, work. Because one half of the start inspections is making sure that reported nuclear arsenals are actually extant.
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Apr 14, 2023 17:40
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Haystack posted:Didn't the US throw a lot of their special forces into the spearheads of the Iraqi invasion? Maybe Putin got envious. Somewhat, yes. IIRC Marine 1st Recon operated largely as a spearhead unit. They got away with it because the Iraqis had terrible morale, inferior equipment, and mass confusion sewn by often bypassing defensive positions and causing a lot of "where the gently caress are they going/where did they go?" havoc. None of these factors were present in Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
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Apr 14, 2023 17:46
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Yeah not sure the russians actually knew what ISTAR is and why it's important, recce was definitely lacking as evident by the Russian MPs driving at the spearhead 😂
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Apr 14, 2023 17:50
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Morrow posted:Do the nukes even, like, work. Because one half of the start inspections is making sure that reported nuclear arsenals are actually extant. Anyone who knows the answer isn't telling so the logical thing to do is assume they do.
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Apr 14, 2023 18:07
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I feel like we're entering a bit of a loop with the discussion of the leaks, so let's start winding it down until additional details, or something else relevant, surface. Just a super quick aside, wanted to say that I appreciate the adjustments you've made to the moderation of this new thread since it went up, after all the discussion in the last one. The conversation has flowed well and is still reined in when it stops being productive and/or interesting and the rare probes have been judicious and fair. Thanks for your efforts here, we appreciate it 
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Apr 14, 2023 18:48
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BBC is reporting that he faces up to 15 years, so I guess they’re expecting those "per document" sentences to run concurrently, not consecutively. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65270966 I wonder if it is uncharted territory for trying someone leaking documents this way: not accidentally, not for monetary gain, and not for a political agenda, but because they’re a loving idiot.
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Apr 14, 2023 18:57
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Saladman posted:BBC is reporting that he faces up to 15 years, so I guess they’re expecting those "per document" sentences to run concurrently, not consecutively. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65270966 You don't think a Young White Christian Gun and Race War Enthusiast (that the Washington Post assures us is Charismatic) has a political agenda? MTG says he is a hero and and anti-war (against Russian interests) figure.
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Apr 14, 2023 18:59
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Morrow posted:Do the nukes even, like, work. Because one half of the start inspections is making sure that reported nuclear arsenals are actually extant. I'm not really keen to find out. Slo-Tek posted:You don't think a Young White Christian Gun and Race War Enthusiast (that the Washington Post assures us is Charismatic) has a political agenda? MTG says he is a hero and and anti-war (against Russian interests) figure. The dude apparently wanted to share the docs for clout with his idiot followers, not for specific political gain, if you buy the narrative that someone else then spread them from the original discord server. That's pretty similar to a lot of classified info leaks, but it's pretty different from other widely-disseminated leaks. (Most leaks are poo poo like Petraeus leaking poo poo to his biographer through carelessness / tryina gently caress)
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Apr 14, 2023 19:04
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Slo-Tek posted:You don't think a Young White Christian Gun and Race War Enthusiast (that the Washington Post assures us is Charismatic) has a political agenda? MTG says he is a hero and and anti-war (against Russian interests) figure. Yeah I meant what the poster above said. He did not leak them to further his political ideology, and he didn't intend for the leak to actually spread to anyone who could do something about it, he was just sharing stuff with some high school idiots for clout. Obviously every person has some political beliefs, but unlike Manning or Snowden, his political beliefs had little to do with the actual leak. He would have done the same thing even if he had been part of a gung-ho Slava Ukraine Discord channel, or even if he had been completely impartial and was just doing it to prove to a bunch of kids how much of a secret agent he is.
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Apr 14, 2023 19:09
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Saladman posted:Yeah I meant what the poster above said. He did not leak them to further his political ideology, and he didn't intend for the leak to actually spread to anyone who could do something about it, he was just sharing stuff with some high school idiots for clout. Obviously every person has some political beliefs, but unlike Manning or Snowden, his political beliefs had little to do with the actual leak. He would have done the same thing even if he had been part of a gung-ho Slava Ukraine Discord channel, or even if he had been completely impartial and was just doing it to prove to a bunch of kids how much of a secret agent he is. Just innocently posting classified information in 'n***** hunter central' to own the Jews and Hohols. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 14, 2023 19:29
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Another interview with the gruff Ukrainian artillery guy came out recently, didn't see it posted: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHI0LcozVd0 They talk about (among other things) Bakhmut, what Western weapons they need, US policy regarding Ukraine, etc. Interesting Ukrainian perspective on things.
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Apr 14, 2023 19:54
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China now claiming they they won't supply Russia (or Ukraine to make it sound fair and neutral, but I don't think there was ever much chance of that anyway). https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-weapons-germany-ukraine-2a51d2c64c12fca75683d20fbafba475 Wonder if they calculated that Russia's chances are fine without them, that Russia's chances are hopeless even with them, or that they just don't feel like escalating with the US right now? (Or maybe Macron actually achieved something with his diplomacy?)
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Apr 14, 2023 20:52
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Akratic Method posted:(Or maybe Macron actually achieved something with his diplomacy?) lol
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Apr 14, 2023 20:56
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Akratic Method posted:China now claiming they they won't supply Russia (or Ukraine to make it sound fair and neutral, but I don't think there was ever much chance of that anyway). They've been saying this from the start. They're saying it now more often because there were allegations about them supplying stuff to Russia.
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Apr 14, 2023 21:01
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Akratic Method posted:China now claiming they they won't supply Russia (or Ukraine to make it sound fair and neutral, but I don't think there was ever much chance of that anyway). My guess is supporting Russia would only turn more of the international community against them for little to no gain. Even if China is committed to popping off over Taiwan, pissing the West off more over Ukraine encourages the West to unite harder and decouple from China even faster, causing massive economic damage and strengthening their enemy's position before the war even starts. And then it won't help their war anyways cause Russia has nothing to help them with. If they don't give Russia weapons, what's Russia going to do? Putin needs markets he can access, he has no cards to play against China. North Korea and Iran can afford to openly support Russia cause no one cares where they stand. Anyone else doing so is just shooting their own foot off.
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Apr 14, 2023 21:10
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Akratic Method posted:China now claiming they they won't supply Russia (or Ukraine to make it sound fair and neutral, but I don't think there was ever much chance of that anyway). A few things come to mind: 1) China and the US are still the biggest trading partners to each other, so they want to tow a line with the US. 2) China and Russian haven't really been natural allies even in the best of times, they might not see getting involved with Putin's poo poo show as worth the risk?
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Apr 14, 2023 21:35
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Akratic Method posted:China now claiming they they won't supply Russia (or Ukraine to make it sound fair and neutral, but I don't think there was ever much chance of that anyway). As others have already said, I don't believe this is a change in stance by China. It's always been both sides are at fault, we believe in a negotiated peace. I think I'll wait to see if there are any crackdowns on say exports of civilian drones to the conflict before I believe anything. Any such crackdown could impact supplies to either side as well, so selective enforcement would be something to watch for.
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Apr 14, 2023 21:39
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https://twitter.com/DrRadchenko/status/1646789708284870657?t=Mzvd876wYsxqVFASTLxhig&s=19 A short thread on China-Russia relations that links to three articles and a podcast. I've found Radchenko to be very much worth paying attention to, so I'm taking the opportunity to promote him some more.
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Apr 14, 2023 21:52
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Anyone who knows the answer isn't telling so the logical thing to do is assume they do. Honestly, only one of them has to work. The rest could be duds and it'd still likely cause a generational level of damage nationwide, especially if it's a port city and/or industrial nexus that gets hit.
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Apr 14, 2023 23:25
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Morrow posted:Do the nukes even, like, work. Because one half of the start inspections is making sure that reported nuclear arsenals are actually extant. I for one would never like to find out, tbh.
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Apr 14, 2023 23:28
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spankmeister posted:I for one would never like to find out, tbh. As a resident expert in anything I once read a post about ever, I strongly conclude that most Russian nukes are nonfunctional at present because you have to update the ... um, money gas. The money gas, that's in nukes, which the experts say you have to replace every so often. The money gas is expensive to replace and maintain, and russia likes to divert money from things like money gas and put it in yachts while reporting the money was spent on the money gas, so nobody in russia actually knows how many nukes actually has nonexpired gas except some guys you can't reach because they're in a yacht or they fell out a window
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Apr 14, 2023 23:36
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https://twitter.com/drewharwell/status/1646886505917423616
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Apr 14, 2023 23:46
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Regarding the really ancient tanks that Russia has sent to Ukraine like T62s and I guess even T55s? Does Russia keep crews trained on these old tanks or is it more like crews that are trained on more modern tanks like T72s can man the older tanks without any issues? Like I know that T55s have a gunner position (and maybe T62s as well) whereas the newer tanks all have autoloaders so does Russia keep T55 tank loaders trained up at all times even though most of their T55s have been sitting in storage for decades?
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Apr 15, 2023 00:05
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Charliegrs posted:Regarding the really ancient tanks that Russia has sent to Ukraine like T62s and I guess even T55s? Does Russia keep crews trained on these old tanks or is it more like crews that are trained on more modern tanks like T72s can man the older tanks without any issues? Like I know that T55s have a gunner position (and maybe T62s as well) whereas the newer tanks all have autoloaders so does Russia keep T55 tank loaders trained up at all times even though most of their T55s have been sitting in storage for decades? It's funny implying that Russia has trained tank crews for their newer tanks on hand. I imagine these are freshly contracted soldiers figuring stuff out on the old tanks.
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Apr 15, 2023 00:09
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I don't know an answer to this, but I would be very surprised if Russia has been keeping this shadow corps of tank ammo loaders for “what if a war goes so badly that we're rolling WW2 gear out”.
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Apr 15, 2023 00:14
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As long as it doesn't cost too much to get them running to park somewhere there isn't much actual loss provided they don't need massive amounts of material for maintaining them. Unfortunately they've been stored in abysmal conditions and just getting them running is likely to have that issue as the war goes on.
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Apr 15, 2023 00:26
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