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What is the most powerful flying bug? This poll is closed. |
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|---|---|---|---|
| 🦋 |
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15 | 3.71% |
| 🦇 |
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115 | 28.47% |
| 🪰 |
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12 | 2.97% |
| 🐦 |
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67 | 16.58% |
| dragonfly |
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94 | 23.27% |
| 🦟 |
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14 | 3.47% |
| 🐝 |
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87 | 21.53% |
| Total: | 404 votes | ||
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Vomik posted:was there actually anything in “the leaks”? I didn’t see the bigger one but the first set was a mix of made up poo poo from oryx combined with statistics that are incredibly obvious to anyone who has read more than a NYT summary. basically assessments that are kinda a more sober analysis of the state of the ukrainian military but also just total guess work based on osint posts (lol) in other words, it runs contrary to the rosy picture the mainstream media paints of the situation and that's treason, bobby!
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Apr 14, 2023 23:41
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Nix Panicus posted:Is it gamer words? Yes. One is “brap” which I thought was a fat fetish thing.
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Apr 14, 2023 23:41
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Frosted Flake posted:Yes. One is “brap” which I thought was a fat fetish thing. Well, uh, it's not a fat fetish thing.
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Apr 14, 2023 23:46
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Vomik posted:was there actually anything in “the leaks”? I didn’t see the bigger one but the first set was a mix of made up poo poo from oryx combined with statistics that are incredibly obvious to anyone who has read more than a NYT summary. It caused controversy in Israel/South Korea that wasn’t favorable to the US and the overall picture it paints is really not great except for Oryx numbers. Also, having an 21 year old Airman having access to top secret information and then leaking it…is extremely embarrassing. I don’t think it was a op or limited hangout, it just the US military is a bit of a mess.
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Apr 14, 2023 23:51
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Vomik posted:was there actually anything in “the leaks”? I didn’t see the bigger one but the first set was a mix of made up poo poo from oryx combined with statistics that are incredibly obvious to anyone who has read more than a NYT summary. i think the perceived danger (from the state's perspective) is disclosing exactly how close the US is trying to keep tabs on the conflict rather than any particular datum of info the US really really wants to stop making it public knowledge that they're spying on and wargaming out foreign interests, even if the actual parties concerned know its happening anyway. idk exactly why but it doesn't matter, i suspect it has to do with China getting all the positive foreign policy press coverage lately but that seems rather thin. e: it wasn't "made up poo poo" exactly, it was just a bunch of scenarios that were basically means-testing how likely it would be for ukraine to win probably used as the basis for scenarios where the US offers X or Y levels of aid packages HiroProtagonist has issued a correction as of 23:57 on Apr 14, 2023 |
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Apr 14, 2023 23:55
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I think the biggest reveal from the initial set of leaks is that the US has little to no control over Ukraine and has no clue whats actually going on with Ukrainian forces and is reduced to citing verbatim OSINT and Ukraine's publicly released propaganda numbers. Basically we're throwing billions of dollars worth of gear into an unaccountable black hole and hoping for the best, and US intelligence services are incapable of doing any intelligence gathering.
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Apr 14, 2023 23:59
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Nix Panicus posted:I think the biggest reveal from the initial set of leaks is that the US has little to no control over Ukraine and has no clue whats actually going on with Ukrainian forces and is reduced to citing verbatim OSINT and Ukraine's publicly released propaganda numbers. Basically we're throwing billions of dollars worth of gear into an unaccountable black hole and hoping for the best, and US intelligence services are incapable of doing any intelligence gathering. i mean to be fair that was literally the Iraq and Afghanistan strategy
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Apr 15, 2023 00:00
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thanks all I should try to find them and look through them again. the first time I read them was when someone posted a tweet or telegram here and the fact that it was (at the time) from the “wowmao discord” from a month earlier - I honestly thought they had to be fake lol.
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Apr 15, 2023 00:04
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iirc there was some numbers on the strength of armored battalions being mustered and a line like “training complete: 0%”
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Apr 15, 2023 00:08
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Vomik posted:thanks all I should try to find them and look through them again. The going theory is that the stuff in the initial leaks was legit just from its wildly unlikely provenance (what disinformation campaign seeds poo poo on a tiny rear end Discord where it might never be found in a timely manner?), but some of the stuff being reported by major outlets in the 'previously unseen' 300 pages or whatever is probably an op to try and make something of the opportunity
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Apr 15, 2023 00:11
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lol. didn’t it also have like “ammo: ???” under ukraines military strength
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Apr 15, 2023 00:12
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There was that article by the big serge guy on twitter that talked about how the (initial) leaks were largely not actionable intelligence in the sense of stuff that immediately endangers the Ukrainian army or reveals any details of the plans or direction for their upcoming operations, it was more stuff that was generally embarrassing for Ukraine and the USA such as acknowledgements of the overall lack of training and supply possessed by the Ukrainian units and broad strokes analysis of the conditions of the war.
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Apr 15, 2023 00:13
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Fortaleza posted:iirc there was some numbers on the strength of armored battalions being mustered and a line like “training complete: 0%” that's fine, you're supposed to deploy them as soon as they hit 10% which only takes 18 days anyway
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Apr 15, 2023 00:15
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Nix Panicus posted:The going theory is that the stuff in the initial leaks was legit just from its wildly unlikely provenance (what disinformation campaign seeds poo poo on a tiny rear end Discord where it might never be found in a timely manner?), but some of the stuff being reported by major outlets in the 'previously unseen' 300 pages or whatever is probably an op to try and make something of the opportunity lol Jesus Christ. can’t believe mlmp read my post about modern censorship moving to drowning reality in fakes and already ran that up the flag pole
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Apr 15, 2023 00:15
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if you take it at face value then the US thinks Ukraine still has tanks when they obviously don't. It claims they have more in the field than Russia. They obviously don't and part of them must know this because they're desperate to send them vehicles. But at some point dissonance sets in and the leak claims their tank formations are healthy AND they're getting a load of NATO stuff. Catastrophic stupidity or just a dumb op? Who knows?
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Apr 15, 2023 00:16
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Regarde Aduck posted:if you take it at face value then the US thinks Ukraine still has tanks when they obviously don't. It claims they have more in the field than Russia. They obviously don't and part of them must know this because they're desperate to send them vehicles. But at some point dissonance sets in and the leak claims their tank formations are healthy AND they're getting a load of NATO stuff. Catastrophic stupidity or just a dumb op? Who knows? one analyst is saying ukraine has a million tanks now that they stole all of russia's armor brigades with tractors, another analyst is saying ukraine has suffered enough attrition via violent conflict none are left. a smart manager knows that means ukraine has half a million tanks 
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Apr 15, 2023 00:18
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Vomik posted:lol. didn’t it also have like “ammo: ???” under ukraines military strength that's pretty normal for WIP (e2: work in progress) stuff being produced for some demo presentation or another tbh, but if the "???" and related stuff had highlights that would already seal the deal on this hypothetical. it has to be workshopped then sent through whatever layers of chain of command approval before it got stamped "good" and this leak was just an inter-approval version of whatever the approved stuff this guy probably didnt have access to, but it all kinda points to some kind of senior level briefing being worked on in DoD intel channels that he printed out e: if the WIP materials were actually classified as TS/NOFORN (they probably were) then that means he printed them out in a SCIF and brought them home to take cellphone photos of to own his posting enemies, which i mean, lol HiroProtagonist has issued a correction as of 00:26 on Apr 15, 2023 |
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Apr 15, 2023 00:19
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I think it's telling that the "additional 300 pages" NYT and WaPo are referring to have not been seen anywhere, even by people who ripped all the photos from that discord. I'm with people who think the original leaks are real, but the entire news cycle being about the leaker and only the new, unseen stuff, seems coordinated. For example, the ones I see on my news feed are all embarrassing to other countries and wouldn't be handled by the same intelligence shop preparing Ukraine briefs. What intelligence unit possibly has a portfolio this diverse?: The reports have also caused embarrassment for two US-Middle East allies—Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. Egypt denied a Washington Post report citing a leaked document dated February 17 that said it had reached a secret agreement to supply Russia with 40,000 rockets, gunpowder and artillery shells. “In the document, Sisi instructs the officials to keep the production and shipment of the rockets secret ‘to avoid problems with the West’”, the Washington Post reported, referring to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Another leaked document focuses on the United Arab Emirates, saying Abu Dhabi had agreed to leak US and United Kingdom intelligence to curry favour with Russia. “The UAE probably views engagement with Russian intelligence as an opportunity to strengthen growing ties between Abu Dhabi and Moscow and diversify intelligence partnerships amid concerns of US disengagement from the region,” the document cited by the Associated Press news agency says. The UAE said suggestions it had deepened ties with Russian intelligence were “categorically false.”
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Apr 15, 2023 00:23
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Yeah, the actual war related 'revelations' are nothing that would surprise anyone who follows this thread. Ukraine is low on air defense, has a chronic shortage of artillery shells, real manpower issues, and is running with very understrength brigades. Thats why I thought just how in the dark the US is about Ukraine was the big takeaway
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Apr 15, 2023 00:25
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create an honorary account for this man because this is absolutely goon behavior
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Apr 15, 2023 00:27
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HiroProtagonist posted:that's pretty normal for WIP (e2: work in progress) stuff being produced for some demo presentation or another tbh, but if the "???" and related stuff had highlights that would already seal the deal on this hypothetical. it has to be workshopped then sent through whatever layers of chain of command approval before it got stamped "good" and this leak was just an inter-approval version of whatever FYI if any of you guys leak classified documents here to own your posting enemies I promise not to share them in my other discords if that will ease your minds about posting classified docs.
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Apr 15, 2023 00:28
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Frosted Flake posted:I think it's telling that the "additional 300 pages" NYT and WaPo are referring to have not been seen anywhere, even by people who ripped all the photos from that discord. I'm with people who think the original leaks are real, but the entire news cycle being about the leaker and only the new, unseen stuff, seems coordinated. smells like deflection nobody is talking about what exactly is implied by the "major leak" in regards to the US I would like to take a look at this "300 page" addition if or when it ever surfaces
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Apr 15, 2023 00:33
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Frosted Flake posted:I think it's telling that the "additional 300 pages" NYT and WaPo are referring to have not been seen anywhere, even by people who ripped all the photos from that discord. I'm with people who think the original leaks are real, but the entire news cycle being about the leaker and only the new, unseen stuff, seems coordinated. To me it just sounds like trying to make lemons into lemonade by taking aim at two states close to the Saudis. Moreover, it doesn't really make sense at a certain point that he is uploading that many documents for e-cred, it doesn't make sense into that context. I would say though if they are taking aim at UAE/Egypt, the beef with the Saudis is real. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 00:36 on Apr 15, 2023 |
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Apr 15, 2023 00:34
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sullat posted:FYI if any of you guys leak classified documents here to own your posting enemies I promise not to share them in my other discords if that will ease your minds about posting classified docs. i personally endorse this behavior Ardennes posted:To me it just sounds like trying to make lemons into lemonade by taking aim at two states close to the Saudis. Moreover, it doesn't really make sense at a certain point that he is uploading that many documents for e-cred, it doesn't make sense into that context. it seems pretty stupid to try and make this into an embarrassment for the second tier of US allies behind the Sauds
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Apr 15, 2023 00:43
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Nix Panicus posted:Yeah, the actual war related 'revelations' are nothing that would surprise anyone who follows this thread. Ukraine is low on air defense, has a chronic shortage of artillery shells, real manpower issues, and is running with very understrength brigades. Thats why I thought just how in the dark the US is about Ukraine was the big takeaway afghanistan speedrun any % collapse
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Apr 15, 2023 00:44
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That's the other thing. I don't understand how those would be the same office, let alone same desk, and yeah a forum of gamers who care about weapons and tactics do not give a gently caress about these apparent unseen revelations: "The war in Ukraine has gutted Russia’s clandestine spetsnaz forces, and it will take Moscow years to rebuild them, according to classified U.S. assessments obtained by The Washington Post.The finding, which has not been previously reported..." "Leaked US documents have revealed that disagreements in Russia's security apparatus led to the defence ministry being accused of undercounting casualties of the war in Ukraine." "Multiple screenshots of the documents - often of poor quality - are still circulating on Twitter, Telegram and Reddit. But the originals are much harder to find. A lot of the original copies have now disappeared from the chats where they first emerged. Others who shared the screenshots on Discord, Telegram and Twitter have either wiped out their feeds or deleted their social media profiles altogether." "The leaked U.S. dossier, however, hints at something more serious. It describes the incident as a “near shoot-down” of the British aircraft. The language appears to go beyond what U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told lawmakers last October. This week, The New York Times reported that the Russian pilot had locked on the British aircraft before the missile failed to fire properly." "The document also details several other close encounters in recent months between Russian fighter jets and U.S., U.K. and French surveillance aircraft — a subject that jumped into the news last month when a Russian fighter jet collided with a U.S. drone, sending it crashing into the Black Sea." Weirdly all of the new leaks reinforce US narratives that have already been the consensus of WaPo and NYT, and all of the leaks about Ukraine getting hosed up are disappearing.
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Apr 15, 2023 00:47
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Frosted Flake posted:Weirdly all of the new leaks reinforce US narratives that have already been the consensus of WaPo and NYT, and all of the leaks about Ukraine getting hosed up are disappearing. In a week, it will hardly be remembered that the documents were about Ukraine at all
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Apr 15, 2023 00:49
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bedpan posted:In a week, it will hardly be remembered that the documents were about Ukraine at all Concerning.
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Apr 15, 2023 00:53
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nDimensional chess, but it's pretty funny that by muddying the waters they news outlets are making a good case for the original leak being very real. Yes this sentiment has been expressed here before, I'm not ignoring you, it's also still funny.
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Apr 15, 2023 01:00
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HiroProtagonist posted:that's pretty normal for WIP (e2: work in progress) stuff being produced for some demo presentation or another tbh, but if the "???" and related stuff had highlights that would already seal the deal on this hypothetical. it has to be workshopped then sent through whatever layers of chain of command approval before it got stamped "good" and this leak was just an inter-approval version of whatever this actually sounds like exactly what it was and I think i remember those acronyms. they looked like they were printed on some large format paper
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Apr 15, 2023 01:00
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HiroProtagonist posted:smells like deflection Unfortunately the 300 pages are now classified again and can never be released to the public, for security purposes. All of the State Department propaganda outlets will give you tantalizing summaries though! Is that not good enough?
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Apr 15, 2023 01:07
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Nix Panicus posted:I think the thing FF is pointing towards is that Ukraine believes its only avenue for not losing the war is to provoke Russian escalation leading to NATO involvement by using long range weapons to hit Russian infrastructure, thus turning a small-ish regional proxy war into a full blown global war.
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Apr 15, 2023 01:08
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Nix Panicus posted:Unfortunately the 300 pages are now classified again and can never be released to the public, for security purposes. All of the State Department propaganda outlets will give you tantalizing summaries though! Is that not good enough?
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Apr 15, 2023 01:12
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Because that's the only logical scenario. Destroying the Russian government means starting world war 3 because they will use nuclear weapons as a desperate attempt at self preservation. There's no realistic scenario you can imagine that involves fighting Russia and beating them without nuclear weapons being used. That's why the only other options are a coup or a collapse of the government to the point where the army can't fight a war. Both of these were attempted via economic sanctions, and it hasn't worked so far. Edit: Which just goes back to the west clearly not thinking through the consequences of their actions. So we're all just playing a game chicken to see where it ends.
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Apr 15, 2023 01:14
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https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-it-is-finding-more-chinese-components-russian-weapons-2023-04-14/quote:reuters.com imo the western components identified before also came from china that said lmao at westerners thinking it was an epic L for putin to not get chinese weapons when china could just do what the reuters article just reported
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Apr 15, 2023 01:20
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Lostconfused posted:Edit: Which just goes back to the west clearly not thinking through the consequences of their actions. So we're all just playing a game chicken to see where it ends. oh they know, they're like children on xmas eve at this point https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=live?dxA2ZD6bhcU&t=2526s starts grinning like an idiot when she starts imagining striking command and control within russian territory, what a ghoul
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Apr 15, 2023 01:24
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The US wanted afghanistan, like a long protracted insurgency versus a long conventional war. It would have been cost effective to train some guys on how to make IEDs and provide them small arms. Instead the western MIC cant provide weapons fast enough and they get used up almost as fast.
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Apr 15, 2023 01:28
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Yeah, that's a great point, that I personally haven't really though of. The west sees this conventional war as a huge victory for them. On the other hand all of their aid and plans would have been more efficient/useful in a prolonged guerilla war.
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Apr 15, 2023 01:30
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im sorry we can't wage industrial war, we don't have any industry maybe we can win a financial war? we have plenty of finance
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Apr 15, 2023 01:31
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And before anyone starts with "but the west gets to use up its old stockpiles". Which is good. Unlike the dumb orcs who are forced to use old stockpiles because they're backwards savages. Which is bad. It might be good for the finances and budget committees to just throw away your old supposedly useless junk. But it doesn't seem like it's good from the point of view of fighting a war.
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Apr 15, 2023 01:36
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