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fatherboxx)
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Morrow posted:There's also a huge meritocratic element to, y'know, fighting an actual war as opposed to a bureaucratic ladder system. Ukraine has been doing so since 2014, after a revolution, so a lot of chaff has been filtered out and a lot of gold nuggets found. Yeah, this was huge. Pre-2014, the Ukrainian military was notoriously lovely and rife with divided loyalties. Eight years of civil/proxy war was plenty to shake out a lot of the usual parasites that inhabit peacetime armies, to say nothing of those that had Russian sympathies. Putin clearly planned his war based on Ukraine's 2014 showing and got completely blindsided what was actually waiting for him.
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Apr 18, 2023 04:14
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Kraftwerk posted:You need a serious existential crisis or a call to action that sparks people’s sense of duty. And Nimitz was promoted over, by seniority, I think 12 other admirals to be C-in-C Pacific. Nobody who studies that campaign prior to the Essex Swarm turning it into easy mode can say that he wasn't one of the most effective military commanders of all time.
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Apr 18, 2023 04:20
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Haystack posted:Yeah, this was huge. Pre-2014, the Ukrainian military was notoriously lovely and rife with divided loyalties. Eight years of civil/proxy war was plenty to shake out a lot of the usual parasites that inhabit peacetime armies, to say nothing of those that had Russian sympathies. Putin clearly planned his war based on Ukraine's 2014 showing and got completely blindsided what was actually waiting for him. Even in 2014 they dramatically underestimated the Ukrainian government and military. The Crimean invasion was the Russian leadership testing the waters (and grabbing what they wanted most). In doing so they confirmed that the Ukrainian government was unwilling to risk starting a larger conflict by shooting back and that they were able to grab some portions of the Ukrainian military where loyalties were split, particularly in the Navy. International response was similarly promising - NATO wholly avoided conflict and to a large extent international media was initially willing to parrot Russian talking points w/r/t these being rebels seeking independence/Ukrainians all being Nazis/genocide of Russians and the like similar to Georgia. So, confirming their expectations, they began the invasion in the East using the same tactics. Then things started to go off track. First, they got very little local support so the invasion remained a Russian military affair - unlike Crimea they didn't have a bunch of troops here to secure the territory they were taking. Second, the Ukrainian military remained intact and organized - initially withdrawing and taking their hardware with them. Third, the Ukrainian government eventually stopped waffling and was willing to not only send in troops to restore control, but also ordered them to shoot back this time. Finally, when they did start fighting the Ukrainians fought *hard*. They pushed Russian irregular forces rapidly back and bottled them up in a few cities while nearly recapturing the border. Then, when regular Russian formations crossed the border in force to save the situation, despite being caught by surprise the Ukrainians actually fought a bunch of pitched battles and inflicted serious losses - eventually leading to the assault faltering at the 2014 lines where they failed to even secure all of Donetsk and Luhansk, much less the coast. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 12:32 on Apr 18, 2023 |
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Apr 18, 2023 04:52
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https://twitter.com/GazetaRu/status/1648010956453060630 A Russian handball champion fell from an 8th floor window  while connection to the war is undeterminable, I thought that it is interesting as part of the wider phenomenon.
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Apr 18, 2023 07:15
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Are there any good reading/books out yet about this?
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Apr 18, 2023 07:33
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Saint Celestine posted:Are there any good reading/books out yet about this? Jeez, she just fell out of the window yesterday, give it some time.
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Apr 18, 2023 07:47
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Saint Celestine posted:Are there any good reading/books out yet about this? If you don’t have a clearance to worry about, there’s a whole lot of documents straight from the pentagon! But books and such probably won’t start until after the war at the earliest. It’s hard to write serious analysis when it’s not even clear yet what the consequences of various choices turned out to be.
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Apr 18, 2023 08:26
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I saw an announcement of a new book about the war by Ukranian historian Serkhii Plokhy. Coming out next month: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/63326676-the-russo-ukrainian-war
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Apr 18, 2023 08:52
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War on the Rocks put out a good read on informal assistance to Ukraine: https://warontherocks.com/2023/04/more-than-a-hobby-informal-security-assistance-to-ukraine/ Some interesting tidbits that stood out to me: The good: quote:While some may argue that the aid provided by non-state actors — relative to over $113 billion in global aid provided to Ukraine — is too small to make an impact, we believe the aid has had a tangible effect. Highly motivated groups are providing equipment with a comparative advantage in areas where formalized state aid cannot. Several Ukrainian soldiers told us that “It’s more common for the average Ukrainian unit to have 100 percent of its drones sourced from these non-governmental organizations [Prytula Foundation, Come Back Alive, and Monsters Corporation], not our Ministry of Defense…and these drones already come ‘modified’ so they’re ready for combat use when they arrive.” The not so good: quote:A Ukrainian group, Aerorozvidka, has direct ties to the Ukrainian military. It has been operating since 2014 and created the R18 octocopter drone. Ukrainian troops use this drone to drop grenades on Russian forces. Drones are a major focus of funding drives. In July, citizens in both Poland and Lithuania raised over $5 million dollars in private donations to supply Ukraine with Bayraktar drones. The Polish campaign inspired the Turkish drone manufacturer to provide several for free and allocated the money raised to humanitarian aid organizations. At the same time, the crowdsourcing of Bayraktar drones, for example, creates a supply-side issue, pressuring the Ukrainian military to use them even though the money would be better spent on more critical demands on the front, like artillery and mortar rounds, according to several Ukrainian officers contacted. The "good" kind of classified material leak: quote:Some Ukrainian troops noted that many of their weapons and ammo do not come with guides or firing tables. NATO personnel, according to Ukrainian sources we interviewed, have privately responded to such needs and acquired this information through unofficial channels, providing it directly to frontline units. In another case, Ukrainian soldiers told us that Western military officers have set up Facetime calls to teach their units how to use weapons, such as a recently acquired rocket-propelled grenade that did not have instructions. A different Ukrainian unit encountered problems related to mounting adapters for aiming sights on Western machine guns. The oversight caused a several-week delay but was eventually overcome with help from personal networks between Western special operations units. Most Ukrainian troops appreciate these informal solutions, but the United States and Europe could do a better job of ensuring future war matériel deliveries actually make sense for the Ukrainian military. Interesting read for sure.
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Apr 18, 2023 09:34
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Saint Celestine posted:Are there any good reading/books out yet about this? good books aren't going to be a thing until years after the dust has settled, and it is very much still up in the air. at present you're going to get good journalism that later becomes the sources for those books, among other things on the russian side, meduza and holod have been producing good work and translating their major pieces into english. novaya gazeta has now shifted into the same, but i haven't been following them as much. historically their english coverage has been rather crap and i'll cop to being lazy and not reading longer pieces in russian. mediazona produces some good work, but is probably the most biased of the russian publications. i should read doxa for extremely zoomer content, but they definitely have no english coverage, and again, i am lazy the ukrainian side is unfortunately limited. idk, afaik prewar media there was more local and dominated by powerful local interests, which produced a different dynamic than russia's state/opposition media dichotomy. the kyiv independent is decent but kinda-sorta newly formed, and also (understandably) biased in a charm offensive sense. honestly, despite their typical failures reporting on the region, major american and european media have done better stories on the ukrainian side. in the same vein as plokhy's forthcoming book, the recorded snyder lecture series is good comparative history for the background leading up to the war, with the caveat that its coverage of post-USSR history is more limited than i would want (idk how plokhy's books do in that regard--obviously the one isn't out yet, and i still need to start Gates of Europe), but that's kinda understandable since Ukraine circa 2005 is both fairly niche and very recent as far as historical work goes
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Apr 18, 2023 09:46
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In other news, the leaks keep giving: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/17/russia-ukraine-egypt-weapons-leaked-documents/ Sounds like Egypt was another country being courted to produce ammo. quote:The first, dated Feb. 17, reports that Egypt took steps in late January and early February to secretly supply rockets to Russia, including setting a price and making plans for obtaining brass to make the rockets. In a conversation on Jan. 31, Minister of State for Military Production Mohamed Salah al-Din told Sisi that he advised Russian delegates that their agreed price of $1,100 per unit could rise to $1,500 due to a potential increase in brass prices. The Russians were ready to “buy anything,” he told Sisi. The Egyptian president also told Salah al-Din, according to the document, to request “specialized equipment” from Russia to improve the accuracy of the rockets or the quality of the Egyptian factories making them.
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Apr 18, 2023 09:48
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mllaneza posted:And Nimitz was promoted over, by seniority, I think 12 other admirals to be C-in-C Pacific. Nobody who studies that campaign prior to the Essex Swarm turning it into easy mode can say that he wasn't one of the most effective military commanders of all time. In terms of the US Army of the time, one of George Marshall's policies was to try and retire out just about anyone over 60 in the army to clear out dead weight that had accumulated in larger commands in the interwar era. That's sort of the genesis of up-or-out policies. The idea behind it was to prevent the calcification of an old group of officers with little meaningful experience but a lot of seniority. There were a couple of exceptions to this rule (MacArthur for example, for political reasons).
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Apr 18, 2023 09:53
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Saint Celestine posted:Are there any good reading/books out yet about this? RUSI puts out some very detailed and readable if tentative analysis. This one is probably the best introduction: https://rusi.org/explore-our-resear...ruary-july-2022
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Apr 18, 2023 10:35
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:. mediazona produces some good work, but is probably the most biased of the russian publications. i should read doxa for extremely zoomer content, but they definitely have no english coverage, and again, i am lazy ...biased towards what? Not imprisoning people? To contribute, the insider does great osint and publishes opinion pieces and analysis by russian experts and dissidents in both russian and english Somaen fucked around with this message at 12:06 on Apr 18, 2023 |
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Apr 18, 2023 12:04
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mllaneza posted:And Nimitz was promoted over, by seniority, I think 12 other admirals to be C-in-C Pacific. Nobody who studies that campaign prior to the Essex Swarm turning it into easy mode can say that he wasn't one of the most effective military commanders of all time. See also: Eisenhower, who was a Colonel (O-6) in March of 1941, and by February 1943 was a 4-star General.
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Apr 18, 2023 14:45
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Somaen posted:...biased towards what? Not imprisoning people? bias can fall on either side; that's a normal thing in media analysis. it's the same thing you'd use to describe fox news or mother jones in relation to, say reuters
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Apr 18, 2023 16:40
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:bias can fall on either side; that's a normal thing in media analysis. it's the same thing you'd use to describe fox news or mother jones in relation to, say reuters What sides are there? What's the bias to? Comparing mediazona, a small outlet focused on humans rights, to fox news, a major news network, is not correct
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Apr 18, 2023 18:42
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Somaen posted:What sides are there? What's the bias to? Comparing mediazona, a small outlet focused on humans rights, to fox news, a major news network, is not correct Well, he also compared it to Mother Jones, which seems reasonable. If you see a news source for current political events that you don't think has significant bias, it either means that the bias it has is in the same angle that you think, or that it is a news source that publishes book-length articles that can actually cover the topic in full detail. Not that all news sources are equally biased in their own direction, but Fox News (the website) is not really that insane, it's fairly mainstream rightwing. It's the talk shows and the TV Fox that are psychotic.
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Apr 18, 2023 19:30
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I'm not asking for US based generalities, I'm asking about that particular outlet in the context of russian politics. It's not a general news site like mother jones or fox, it's a media outlet that covers russian prisoners rights and the stuff related to it (Wagner prisoners, political cases, people that are being persecuted by the state). I don't see a difference in tone compared to holod, so I'm interested in what Qtotonibudinibudet is seeing that I'm not, not to say they aren't clearly liberal and against the war and political repressions
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Apr 18, 2023 20:48
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/evan-gershkovich-in-court-appeal-against-wsj-reporters-detention-rejected-2xbszrxm9quote:Margarita Simonyan, the head of the Kremlin-funded RT television channel, has suggested swapping Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder, for Gershkovich, Kara-Murza, and Paul Whelan, a former US marine who is serving 16 years in Russia on hotly disputed espionage charges. I never thought I would agree with Simonyan on anything, but if they want their asset back that badly, it sounds like a good deal.
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Apr 18, 2023 21:07
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/evan-gershkovich-in-court-appeal-against-wsj-reporters-detention-rejected-2xbszrxm9 Can't they take Glenn Greenwald too, just for good measure?
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Apr 18, 2023 21:20
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Storkrasch posted:Can't they take Glenn Greenwald too, just for good measure? Russian state media already have a token gay person with awful views https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1646539983832989697
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Apr 18, 2023 21:39
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https://twitter.com/k_sonin/status/1648376529955717120?s=20 It's always heartening to see signs of civil disobedience in Russia. https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1648406182539788288?s=20 From a longer thread, but the 'Immortal Regiment' coming back to bite Putin in the rear end would be an interesting development. https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1648206963237330947?s=20 Good news, or bad news? Parts of the Russian military demonstrate they're still capable of rational decision making. https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Der-Mann-der-die-Ukrainer-nach-Hause-holt-article24060732.html And a good article in German about the work of Ukraine's POW exchange negotiator. quote:In contrast, Ukraine guarantees Russian prisoners secrecy about the circumstances of their surrender and the possibility of not returning to Russia. And although human rights violations occur in the handling of prisoners on the Ukrainian side as well, the desire to return to Russia is not particularly strong among many.
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Apr 18, 2023 23:10
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There's also a distinction between a news org's bias, and it's truthfulness. You can be biased in your reporting, giving a focus to stories that lean one direction, and put more focus on facts and testimonies that support your viewpoint. But while doing that, you might still take care that the facts you do report ARE in fact true, and you're not just going with any story that supports your viewpoint without checking on it, or just making poo poo up.
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Apr 19, 2023 00:59
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1648206963237330947?s=20
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Apr 19, 2023 03:36
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Budzilla posted:It took them long enough. As long as the other submarines in the Lada Classs have all the redesigns incorporated into them then yes getting rid of this particular submarine is a smart but overdue move.
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Apr 19, 2023 03:55
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Cugel the Clever posted:Anyone have a rundown of the subs failings? Much like every other Russian MIC project this millennium, it failed to meet any of the advertised capabilities - largely because they've proven incapable of designing and building the air independent diesel needed, but also because apparently the sonar is below expectations, and the torpedoes and torpedo guidance don't work properly, and that's just what has reached the public space. I daresay when the rest of the class is produced with the "fixes" the resultant submarines will be very underwhelming, and probably well inferior to anything Europe or China is making in the field.
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Apr 19, 2023 04:54
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Prigozhin seems to have been to Drunk Dmitry's bottle and proposed to have 500 Finnish soldiers vs 500 Wagner mercs to see who's who
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Apr 19, 2023 07:26
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Some good news on the EU gas storage front, it looks like unless winter 2023 is exceptionally cold we should be ok for it too now:quote:The EU is storing record levels of natural gas after a milder than anticipated winter, bolstering hopes that the bloc can wean itself off imports from Russia. https://www.ft.com/content/0b0c6e35-7667-42af-8616-e525938b8d8f It bodes well for EU support of Ukraine.
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Apr 19, 2023 10:07
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Some good news on the air defense front: As the Süddeutsche reports, the promised German Patriot-system has arrived in Ukraine. As a bonus, another brandnew IRIS-T air defense system has left the factory and will soon be delivered to Ukraine. By my count, this makes 2 of these extremely expensive and very new systems in Ukrainian hands, and zero in German hands as the German Bundeswehr couldn't fully introduce the system themselves yet. Our government coldly calculates the Ukrainian forces need them more than us, and since it takes like 3 months for each system to be manufactured, our entire production currently goes to defend Ukraine instead of to the Bundeswehr. German procurement! Until the war ends or production speeds up, I'm willing to bet all future IRIS-Ts will also become Ukrainian weapons while the Bundeswehr has to sit there and wait. 
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Apr 19, 2023 10:49
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Libluini posted:Some good news on the air defense front: I’m sure they called it “field testing” in whatever place it needed to be so the IRIS-T could be sent, but it’s good to hear all the same.
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Apr 19, 2023 10:54
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Libluini posted:By my count, this makes 2 of these extremely expensive and very new systems in Ukrainian hands, and zero in German hands as the German Bundeswehr couldn't fully introduce the system themselves yet. Our government coldly calculates the Ukrainian forces need them more than us, and since it takes like 3 months for each system to be manufactured, our entire production currently goes to defend Ukraine instead of to the Bundeswehr. I think IRIS-T was mentioned in the leaks as one of the Western systems for which the provided missiles had already run out. It's good that they're being provided, but the question is how fast missile production can and will be ramped up. https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/moerklagt/afsloering-russiske-spionskibe-forbereder-mulig-sabotage-mod There's been an in-depth investigation into Russian seafloor warfare by media in the Nordic countries, and today a three-part documentary will premiere. AFAIK, there's no English subtitles yet, so if any goons want to watch it and provide a summary, I'd appreciate it.
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Apr 19, 2023 11:38
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Hannibal Rex posted:I think IRIS-T was mentioned in the leaks as one of the Western systems for which the provided missiles had already run out. It's good that they're being provided, but the question is how fast missile production can and will be ramped up. I haven't watched it yet, but I read through the Norwegian article on it. Here is a picture of a Russian civilian sailor aboard a Russian civilian research ship poking around Denmark. Did I tell you it's all civilian, not at all military?  Edit: It's a picture from the Russian research vessel Admiral "Vladimirsky" Relevant section of the article translated by deepl: quote:In inner Danish waters, a white state research vessel sails near an offshore wind farm. Several sources Danmarks Radio (DR) has spoken to believe the Russian "Admiral Vladimirsky" is also being used for intelligence work. https://www.nrk.no/nordland/xl/fiskebater-og-andre-fartoy-fra-russland-kan-drive-spionasje-og-etterretning-i-norge-1.16371100 fish and chips and dip fucked around with this message at 11:54 on Apr 19, 2023 |
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Apr 19, 2023 11:47
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Libluini posted:Some good news on the air defense front: I think this sort of thinking is happening in a lot of European countries. Denmark for example had barely begun taking delivery of their new CAESAR artillary systems and started training on them before it was decided to just donate the entire order to Ukraine.
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Apr 19, 2023 12:20
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The West really needs to increase production rate of ammunition. The platform production rate is probably okay, even if China does something foolish while the War in Ukraine is still going, but ammunition is a real concern. It reminds me of the late 2000s when rifle-owners in the US couldn't get 5.56mm because we were using so much in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the industrial base for even basic rifle ammunition had just withered away after the 1980s.
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Apr 19, 2023 13:33
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Seeing some conflicting reports about the start of Ukraine's counteroffensive. A lot of videos and maps floating around implying it's already started, but nothing solid, as far as I can tell. The official comment from MOD is also not very straightforward. https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/904945.html quote:[T]his is a huge complex of different activities that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are currently carrying out. First and foremost, it is about preparing people for a set of actions: both defensive and offensive. But all of this together, if we are talking about our strategic goal, can be called counter-offensive measures. So maybe no actual counteroffensive yet, but ongoing active preparations that people mistake for the final phase.
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Apr 19, 2023 14:10
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fish and chips and dip posted:I haven't watched it yet, but I read through the Norwegian article on it. If the ships are in Danish waters why aren't they being boarded and/or chased away?
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Apr 19, 2023 14:11
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They don't enter territorial waters by coming within 12 nautical miles of the shore, is my guess. Or don't linger there long enough to get caught, at least.
Slashrat fucked around with this message at 14:16 on Apr 19, 2023 |
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Apr 19, 2023 14:13
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Scratch Monkey posted:If the ships are in Danish waters why aren't they being boarded and/or chased away? That's the confusing bit to me. Even if they were legitimately a civilian research ship you can't just go sailing around in someone else's territory doing whatever you like. Them being obviously an intelligence operation makes it even more weird.
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Apr 19, 2023 14:14
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Slashrat posted:They don't enter territorial waters by coming within 12 nautical miles of the shore, is my guess. that article posted:The ship has been sailing in Danish waters for a long time but does not send out AIS signals, it is radio communication with their position that has revealed the "ghost ship". Unless this is quirk of the machine translation, it sounds to me like they are
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Apr 19, 2023 14:16
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