(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Paladinus posted:Seeing some conflicting reports about the start of Ukraine's counteroffensive. A lot of videos and maps floating around implying it's already started, but nothing solid, as far as I can tell. We probably won't know a counteroffensive has "happened" until it's successfully. No one wants to highlight a unsuccessful offensive, so I'm sure there's been plenty of fighting or potential "counteroffensives" which just haven't gone anywhere so there's nothing to promote.
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Apr 19, 2023 14:18
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Scratch Monkey posted:Unless this is quirk of the machine translation, it sounds to me like they are Amended my post a bit, but 'Danish waters' is kind of ambiguous since there is also the contiguous zone and exclusive economic zone extending further out, inside of which Denmark cannot just halt and board ships as they please. Larger danish offshore wind farms, which is what I had heard the ships were poking around, are iirc normally located further out than territorial waters.
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Apr 19, 2023 14:22
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edit; see above, didn't know it was that cramped, yikes.Fidelitious posted:That's the confusing bit to me. Even if they were legitimately a civilian research ship you can't just go sailing around in someone else's territory doing whatever you like. I assume they stay in international waters and do all their surveillance just at the edge of the "we're not touching you" zone.
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Apr 19, 2023 14:23
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We'll know the counter offense has started when footage of Challenger 2/Leopard 2/Bradleys/Abrams/AMX10 being used in anger starts to leak.
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Apr 19, 2023 14:30
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Fidelitious posted:That's the confusing bit to me. Even if they were legitimately a civilian research ship you can't just go sailing around in someone else's territory doing whatever you like. It’s what the ships scanning the bottom do. We do the same thing. The overlap for collecting information to make navigational charts and intelligence is extremely high. There are almost certainly other things happening too.
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Apr 19, 2023 14:40
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Nothingtoseehere posted:We probably won't know a counteroffensive has "happened" until it's successfully. Troop buildups and increased fire will be obvious from satellite photos. There will also be on-the-ground reports from journalists. They're not going to be able to hide an attempted offensive. We'll know about it whether it's successful or not. The Russians ran a major offensive in the winter that accomplished almost nothing. We certainly know they tried.
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Apr 19, 2023 14:59
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A state's "territorial waters" (often referred to as just "x's waters") is not the same as its Exclusive Economic Zone, which is 200 nautical miles offshore or until the continental shelf drops off, and is often also confusingly referred to in media as "x's waters." In crowded places like the Baltic, Med, or areas where many different states are crowded along a coast like West Africa it can get confusing fast. Maritime law and arguing over quirks in geography is a huge part of international law.
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Apr 19, 2023 15:10
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Scratch Monkey posted:Unless this is quirk of the machine translation, it sounds to me like they are It's the EEZ; I read an article today somewhere, maybe the BBC, that showed the route map of the ships and which wind farms they've been to - they're pretty far offshore, like Dogger bank. I don't think there's anything that the EU/UK can actually do, just like China can't do anything about the US sailing through the Taiwan Straight or around the South China Sea.
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Apr 19, 2023 15:25
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Libluini posted:By my count, this makes 2 of these extremely expensive and very new systems in Ukrainian hands, and zero in German hands as the German Bundeswehr couldn't fully introduce the system themselves yet. Our government coldly calculates the Ukrainian forces need them more than us, and since it takes like 3 months for each system to be manufactured, our entire production currently goes to defend Ukraine instead of to the Bundeswehr. German procurement! Until the war ends or production speeds up, I'm willing to bet all future IRIS-Ts will also become Ukrainian weapons while the Bundeswehr has to sit there and wait. Ukraine should offer to train German forces to use them once they start getting some, as a gesture of good will.
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Apr 19, 2023 15:36
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Hannibal Rex posted:I think IRIS-T was mentioned in the leaks as one of the Western systems for which the provided missiles had already run out. It's good that they're being provided, but the question is how fast missile production can and will be ramped up. Yeah, that was one time the leaks just repeated things we already knew for almost a year now. Back then (it was even posted about in this thread, I think) it turned out the Bundeswehr had really pushed to get the system despite peace time and sleepy German politicians doing their hardest to prevent it from happening. So when the war started, the Bundeswehr had one half-finished system in testing and the company making them was building the first production model. The same company also made the missiles, which of course hadn't been on anyone's mind when the war started. Then, when Ukraine didn't immediately collapse, the German government basically threw the IRIS-T at Ukraine since it was already leaving the factory and the Bundeswehr didn't need it anyway. A political slam-dunk. But a couple months in and after high praise by Ukrainian forces, it turned out the company making IRIS-T had some trouble supplying enough missiles. Apparently the German government had been the only customer and never ordered that many in the first place, so production capacity was basically non-existent. Considering Ukraine is now getting another full system, I'm carefully and hopefully guessing the manufacturer has started overcoming their bottleneck. Though of course, the Ukrainian forces could just decide to keep the IRIS-Ts back and stockpile missiles for that one time a target absolutely has to be neutralized. (Ukrainians reported that it has had a 100% success rate so far, they just really need more missiles) Disclaimer: I'm going mostly by memory from reading news articles from by now about a year ago.
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Apr 19, 2023 15:47
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Libluini posted:Yeah, that was one time the leaks just repeated things we already knew for almost a year now. Back then (it was even posted about in this thread, I think) it turned out the Bundeswehr had really pushed to get the system despite peace time and sleepy German politicians doing their hardest to prevent it from happening. So when the war started, the Bundeswehr had one half-finished system in testing and the company making them was building the first production model. Not knowing anything about GBAD, couldn't they be using the IRIS-T for its radar? Might be possible to link it up to some other solution for actually firing missiles, if there are no IRIS-T missiles available.
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Apr 19, 2023 16:00
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Time for your scheduled Admiral Kuznetsov news   The Admiral Kuznetsov, Russia’s Only Aircraft Carrier, Has No Crew. Now What? quote:Russia’s sole aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, has no crew—but will need one in order to sail in 2024. The ship, which has been in refit since 2017, has few (if any) sailors actually assigned to it. The news does not bode well for a safe deployment next year as planned—or the year after, for that matter. Maybe Xi is willing to buy it.
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Apr 19, 2023 16:46
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Nenonen posted:Time for your scheduled Admiral Kuznetsov news They did previously buy an incomplete ship of the same class from... Ukraine
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Apr 19, 2023 17:10
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Nenonen posted:Time for your scheduled Admiral Kuznetsov news If they decide to restaff it and it takes circa 2000 able bodied military age males up, plus significant resources to train them etc, it'll only be a good thing. They presumably won't be throwing Wagner prisoners at something so valuable, they'll actually be decent quality recruits.
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Apr 19, 2023 17:14
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It doesn't matter how high-quality the recruits are, the ship hasn't been afloat for years and they don't have any other carriers so all their institutional knowledge of how to run one is rotting away. At this rate even if they do get the ship working again they'll have to bring in some Chinese to teach them how to work it. I am of course fully in favor of the Russians pouring men and money into a pointless black hole, I just don't see it ever resulting in anything useful for them. I'm sure some nice dachas will be built with the money for it though.
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Apr 19, 2023 17:36
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Blut posted:If they decide to restaff it and it takes circa 2000 able bodied military age males up, plus significant resources to train them etc, it'll only be a good thing. They presumably won't be throwing Wagner prisoners at something so valuable, they'll actually be decent quality recruits. It's going to be a more tempting post than anything in or near Ukraine, including the Black Sea Fleet for sure. Even if service on the AK does not come without a risk of bodily harm. So it's not going to be difficult to fill the vacancies I suspect. In the wider context hundreds of thousands of service age men have left the country to avoid mobilization, so it's a drop in the sea (also I suspect that they prioritize people with some ties to sea over landlubbers from the inland republics who make a big part of the army cannon fodder). But I trust the old Admiral will anyway dutifully keep eating Russian defense resources 
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Apr 19, 2023 17:58
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Wonder what the Admiral’s drone defenses look like.
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Apr 19, 2023 18:36
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:Wonder what the Admiral’s drone defenses look like. Every defensive system they put on AK is one that isn't on the frontline. So I hope they go super paranoid and load their literal rust bucket up with WW2 levels of short-range AA mounts. And then the drydock collapses on top of it again.
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Apr 19, 2023 18:44
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Just Another Lurker posted:
Sir, the russian captain keeps going to the border and is putting his fingers inches away from territorial waters and has sent the following messages: -I'mnottouchingyouI'mnottouchingyouI'mnottouchingyouI'mnottouchingyouI'mnottouchingyouI'mnottouchingyou
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Apr 19, 2023 19:27
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Paladinus posted:So maybe no actual counteroffensive yet, but ongoing active preparations that people mistake for the final phase. the OSINT crowd have started playing Who's That Pokemon!?, at least https://twitter.com/Mortis_Banned/status/1648761759354740765
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Apr 19, 2023 20:44
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Can't arrows like that mean something generic on military vehicles? Like American tanks have these things
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Apr 19, 2023 21:48
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That’s to remind the user which way is forward. https://youtu.be/ov1wHKpSVpQ
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Apr 19, 2023 21:55
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 In the US and A we have very good tactical markings
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Apr 19, 2023 22:16
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quote:April 19, 2023 Does "Precision aerial munitions" mean JDAMs? Have those been mentioned before?
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Apr 20, 2023 00:05
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Paladinus posted:Can't arrows like that mean something generic on military vehicles? Like American tanks have these things Those specific markings typically indicate which part of a company the vehicle belongs to. Different units probably have different conventions over time, but a wedge facing up meant "command section", so the Company/Troop Commander and Company/Troop Executive Officer's tanks would have that. A wedge facing right was 1st Platoon; facing down was 2nd Platoon; and facing left was 3rd Platoon. You do this in part because you can only maintain so many radio nets, but you want to know who is where. In a tank platoon of four tanks, the Platoon Leader and Platoon Sergeant have two radios: one for the platoon net, and one for the company net. Their wingmen tanks typically only have one radio each, and use the platoon net. (This may have changed in the past 20 years.) It's also just faster. Rather than ask on the company net, "Hey, tank over by that weird-looking tree, are you in 3rd platoon or 2nd platoon?", you can just look and see the marking.
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Apr 20, 2023 00:58
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big shtick energy posted:Does "Precision aerial munitions" mean JDAMs? Have those been mentioned before? yeah they've been getting at least some amount of JDAMs since iirc january. in any event, no that's not new, unless it's referring to something else
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Apr 20, 2023 01:05
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Mooseontheloose posted:Sir, the russian captain keeps going to the border and is putting his fingers inches away from territorial waters and has sent the following messages: I’ve got classmates that were on oceanographic survey vessel3 that got basically that from the Venezuelan navy while they were mapping the bottom.
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Apr 20, 2023 01:11
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:
Is that the front or the back?
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Apr 20, 2023 01:23
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There's footage on Twitter and Reddit which includes about 12 minutes of a firefight in a trench from the perspective of a Urkainian squad (platoon?) leader. It is very  , but a few things stood out to me:
For those who do choose to watch such footage, something to keep in mind: cameras make objects smaller--and thus seem more distant--than they actually are. A lot of this fighting is at 10-30 meters. I still owe the thread a write-up on the US transition to a 6.8mm cartridge for its rifle and automatic rifle (I haven't forgotten!). A very real consideration: the soldiers in the fight I describe above go through a lot of ammunition. Finally, gently caress Putin. This whole drat war is just a horrible, needless loss of life.
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Apr 20, 2023 01:29
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:Is that the front or the back? That depends. Are you the enemy?
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Apr 20, 2023 01:56
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Not quite the same but close to old school 40k Space marine tactical squads.
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Apr 20, 2023 04:09
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Nitrox posted:That depends. Are you the enemy? But should it be “Front; Toward Enemy”, indicating which way it should be placed, or from the reader’s perspective when placed, should it say “Front Toward Enemy” indicating that you have successfully placed the claymore in the right direction?
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Apr 20, 2023 04:35
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Ubik_Lives posted:But should it be “Front; Toward Enemy”, indicating which way it should be placed, or from the reader’s perspective when placed, should it say “Front Toward Enemy” indicating that you have successfully placed the claymore in the right direction? Slop some fluorescent on the back. That way you know they're pointed in the right direction at night and can safely detonate them towards the enemy. When the enemy sends sappers to turn them around at night, paint the front with fluorescent paint so you know when they get turned around and avoid blowing your own guys up. When the enemy brings their own fluorescent paint to fake you out, swap the front and back plates to keep the enemy guessing. After both sides are glowing, and everyone is thoroughly confused by what is "front towards enemy", leave them there to rot because no one remembers which end is pointed where.
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Apr 20, 2023 05:23
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Ubik_Lives posted:But should it be “Front; Toward Enemy”, indicating which way it should be placed, or from the reader’s perspective when placed, should it say “Front Toward Enemy” indicating that you have successfully placed the claymore in the right direction?
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Apr 20, 2023 07:53
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So, uh, who's in charge of this thread now? Is ... is it me?
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Apr 20, 2023 14:35
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https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1647834258747322368 I thought this was a good thread about Russian adaptation during the course of the war. I think we can all stand to keep in mind that they are learning lessons from this war and not just stupidly doing the same things over and over again. Ubik_Lives posted:But should it be “Front; Toward Enemy”, indicating which way it should be placed, or from the reader’s perspective when placed, should it say “Front Toward Enemy” indicating that you have successfully placed the claymore in the right direction? I would think it's the former. Does this help?  The Artificial Kid posted:No! Don't! Stop!  Qtotonibudinibudet posted:the OSINT crowd have started playing Who's That Pokemon!?, at least Wouldn't it be great if all wars were just meme wars?
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Apr 20, 2023 14:37
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Moon Slayer posted:So, uh, who's in charge of this thread now? Is ... is it me? fatherboxx is still thread IK.
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Apr 20, 2023 14:58
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Ynglaur posted:There's footage on Twitter and Reddit which includes about 12 minutes of a firefight in a trench from the perspective of a Urkainian squad (platoon?) leader. It is very So I take it the Russian attackers lost? Why did they lose? Were there not enough Russians attacking - people always talk about "you should have 5 times more soldiers when attacking" or similar estimates? Hmm, Russians had artillery support you say but I guess the Ukrainians just sat in their shelter, then the Russian infantry approached and the Russians couldn't use artillery when their own troops are only 30 metres from the enemy. Are the shelters hardened enough that Russians can't just reduce them with artillery fire, without putting their infantry in danger? Or do they not have enough artillery ammo? Did the Russians also have drones for visibility?
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Apr 20, 2023 16:25
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jaete posted:So I take it the Russian attackers lost? Why did they lose? Were there not enough Russians attacking - people always talk about "you should have 5 times more soldiers when attacking" or similar estimates? They are dug in pretty well. It's very hard to dislodge trench defenders with artillery due to the need to land the artillery shell directly in the trench to inflict casualties if the soldiers in the trench are holed up. They've probably shelled that area for a while before sending their ground troops in to clean up. On the topic of that video, if the soldier with the camera doesn't rush to the flank and expose himself to enemy fire to eliminate the soldiers throwing grenades in to the trench there's a good chance that position gets overrun. That guy can't be commended enough for his leadership, bravery, and awareness.
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Apr 20, 2023 16:48
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I think a major problem is identifying the specific holes, in a shell blasted hellscape full of craters and holes, that enemy soldiers are occupying. You need to be able to locate most if not all of those trenches and then hit them accurately with artillery to clear them out. It may simply not be a capability Russia has. I don't know that anyone has it really? If you can't do that you have to clear them out with infantry but if all cover has been blasted or burned to dust and you can't or won't send armored support, then it's just going to be difficult no matter who you are.
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Apr 20, 2023 16:50
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