(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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jaete posted:So I take it the Russian attackers lost? Why did they lose? Were there not enough Russians attacking - people always talk about "you should have 5 times more soldiers when attacking" or similar estimates? I haven't watched the video in question but it seems really hard to answer these questions from a 12 minute combat clip? The only reason we would know artillery didn't hit is that these troops were able to survive and we have no idea how accurate fire support is, the time lag, or even if this particular assault unit has any priority given the rationing going on. Also, unless a guy points out a Russian drone spotting them, I dunno how you can answer the second question though we know Russian doctrine docs floating around suggests that assault units should have drone support. Maybe some more capable analysts can figure something out or the clip is particularly illuminating, but it just seems weird to expect answers like that.
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Apr 20, 2023 16:55
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To the point about the survivability of the bunkers — within the first minute of the video, before the assault, a Russian shell lands directly in front of the bunker entrance, creating a big explosion (hard to tell on video how big, but there’s flames and dirt and dust flies everywhere). Everyone inside survives. The camera guy immediately afterwards asks the soldier by the entrance, “You alive?” And the guy, with comic timing, gives a thumbs up.
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Apr 20, 2023 17:32
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E: Wrong thread, sorry
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Apr 20, 2023 18:09
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Moon Slayer posted:So, uh, who's in charge of this thread now? Is ... is it me? I'm still here until Russian state decides to punish me for bad posting and draft (or rather imprison) my rear end fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 18:20 on Apr 20, 2023 |
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Apr 20, 2023 18:15
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jaete posted:So I take it the Russian attackers lost? Why did they lose? Were there not enough Russians attacking - people always talk about "you should have 5 times more soldiers when attacking" or similar estimates? Yes, Russia lost that particular tactical engagement. The video is unclear how many Russians there were in total, but it seems like approximately a dozen. Their assault platoons are about that size, so it would line up. You're correct regarding the artillery tactic, though it's really more like 50-100m. A 155mm HE shell has a kill radius of 50m and a wounding radius of 100m. Such metrics are based on 50% occurrence at the given range (i.e. 50% of people within 50m would die; 50% of people within 100m would be wounded). Unless you're using a precision shell and know exactly which bunker to hit, artillery versus fortifications is mostly suppressing the people inside to allow your infantry to get close. Your infantry still has to close the last 100m or so, though, which is what Russia tried in that video. Russia is using drones to guide in assault teams, though my impression is not as effectively. They map out assaults in advance and put various checkpoints on the map. This lets Russian commanders directly poorly trained troops with more sophistication. "Move to checkpoing 123. Okay, now move to 456." That initiative is arguably why they won the engagement: the squad leader basically got out of the trench to see better, killed several hostiles, but (more importantly), directed his soldiers based on what he could see on the ground. Neither army has a strong NCO corps, but this footage anecdotally suggests that Ukraine's junior leaders are more effective than Russia's. (Yes, it's a single data point.)
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Apr 20, 2023 18:34
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Ynglaur posted:Neither army has a strong NCO corps, but this footage anecdotally suggests that Ukraine's junior leaders are more effective than Russia's. (Yes, it's a single data point.) Are you sure? I thought the prevailing story is since 2014 Ukraine had been actively training their new recruits using western style methods and advisors leading to a US army style backbone of strong NCO corps and junior officers who have a lot more initiative vs the more rigid soviet style command structure the senior officers are used to. With all the reforms the Ukrainian army is supposed to be very effective at the tactical level but suffers from friction at the upper echelons where a lot of Soviet Era officers were brought out of retirement (because there was no one available to fill those roles) so now they're in constant conflict with the junior officers and NCOs for how to handle a battle. This was cited as one of the main reasons the Ukrainians were able to hold off the Russians in the battle of Kyiv and at Hostomel.
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Apr 20, 2023 18:52
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Ynglaur posted:There's footage on Twitter and Reddit which includes about 12 minutes of a firefight in a trench from the perspective of a Urkainian squad (platoon?) leader. It is very  Lekha's response provided some levity for what was to come next.No matter how the war ends I will assume lots of Ukrainian personnel will be in demand from armies all over the world on how to fight in peer to peer war.
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Apr 20, 2023 18:53
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, but a few things stood out to me:
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fatherboxx posted:I'm still here until Russian state decides to punish me for bad posting and draft (or rather imprison) my rear end How do you know that this right here isn't your punishment? The Organs of state security work in mysterious ways.
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Apr 20, 2023 20:10
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What do y’all think of this vid and YouTuber? https://youtu.be/ALLQLsfucvw It’s a video in response to an upload by thread favorite Anders Puck Nielsen’s “how the war can destabilize Russia” video which was uploaded a day ago. The algo served me up this guy a few weeks ago and the few vids I’ve seen so far all seem largely in line with the tempered takes I see here and elsewhere about the war. The (pretty mild) criticism Vlad makes is that Nielsen might have oversimplified his assessment of how domestic instability would occur (so it would make more sense to an international audience), but in broad strokes the messaging is what he agrees with. I basically ask your takes because I saw something with a guy named Lazerpig and those vids seemed a little too rosy? This guy doesn’t seem to be on the same caliber by any means but thought I’d ask.
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Apr 20, 2023 20:47
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buglord posted:What do y’all think of this vid and YouTuber? https://youtu.be/ALLQLsfucvw Good old Vlad is an academic with a more thoughtful approach and doesn't stray into actual military ops to any extent, he`s more concerned with peoples thoughts and motives. Lazerpig is all right for a laugh until you get tired of his gimmick delivery.  edit: been subbed to Vlad Vexler since the 2022 conflict kicked off so i`m biased.  edit again: also been subbed to Anders Puck Nielsen since he started on the war as well, it's not an either or situation for me. Just Another Lurker fucked around with this message at 21:24 on Apr 20, 2023 |
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Apr 20, 2023 21:16
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Vlad is an academic and intellectual, as far as I can determine he seems to have good insight into the Russian psyche. His video's have been very insightful and enlightening. Imo he suffers a tiny bit from some arrogance and talking down to his audience a touch but it's barely worth mentioning really. His insights into Russian politics and Russian public opinion and what drives it have been peerless on youtube, imo.
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Apr 20, 2023 21:38
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As a former political science major, his whole summary of the situation is accurate and what I really like is that he doesn't make any predictions of forecasts. His emphasis on new recruits will need to come out of places like Saint Petersburg or Moscow is correct given earlier losses. Maybe the Russian people will continue to put up with it? We all know how well people support long running wars...
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Apr 20, 2023 22:20
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This would have been wild:quote:Ukraine planned to attack Russian forces in Syria, leaked document shows https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/20/russia-ukraine-war-syria-attacks/
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Apr 20, 2023 22:24
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Huge explosion in Belgorod (thats Russia for those who dont follow closely), without fatalities https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1649149352189784105 Russian Ministry of Defense hastily published that it was an accidential discharge from a Su-34 that was on route to Ukraine https://twitter.com/den_kazansky/status/1649156245239070720
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Apr 20, 2023 22:25
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Kraftwerk posted:Are you sure? Ukraine has a strong junior officer corps, but its not an NCO corps in the way Western armies work. Michael Koffman, Mark Hertling, Ryan Evans, and others have commented on this. Ukraine's implementation of mission command at the tactical level is different than Western militaries, but it still works well. One of the biggest challenges seems to be officers at brigade and higher levels, many of whom are older, veterans of the Soviet and pre-2014 Ukraine military, and who never received training from NATO. It's also interesting that Ukraine has only two headquarters levels above brigade: a regional headquarters, and a supreme headquarters. That may partly because they simply don't have the staffs for divisions, corps, etc. So they're managing ~180 maneuver brigades as ~180 maneuver brigades.
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Apr 20, 2023 22:33
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fatherboxx posted:Russian Ministry of Defense hastily published that it was an accidential discharge from a Su-34 that was on route to Ukraine Russia, where the rock and the hard place is making up a story about your fighter jets bombing your own supermarket to hide that Ukraine can strike that far, or admitting that you actually did bomb your own supermarket. Also I do believe this is not the first time Russian ordinance has gone, astray in Belgorod.
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Apr 20, 2023 22:33
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Moon Slayer posted:So, uh, who's in charge of this thread now? Is ... is it me? What happened to Cinci? Edit to avoid derailing with another post: Cinci did a hell of a job and will be missed. the rat fandom fucked around with this message at 00:09 on Apr 21, 2023 |
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Apr 20, 2023 22:36
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the rat fandom posted:What happened to Cinci? https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4030037 An excel pivot table dominoes into a bad chain of events that got a poster doxxed and he ended up posting a screed and self banning.
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Apr 20, 2023 22:41
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Ynglaur posted:Ukraine has a strong junior officer corps, but its not an NCO corps in the way Western armies work. Michael Koffman, Mark Hertling, Ryan Evans, and others have commented on this. Ukraine's implementation of mission command at the tactical level is different than Western militaries, but it still works well. The above people also point out that there's been non-trivial attrition among NATO trained officers and Ukraine falls back on reserve officers, many of whom are very much of a different era.
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Apr 20, 2023 22:44
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Ynglaur posted:It's also interesting that Ukraine has only two headquarters levels above brigade: a regional headquarters, and a supreme headquarters. That may partly because they simply don't have the staffs for divisions, corps, etc. So they're managing ~180 maneuver brigades as ~180 maneuver brigades. That seems wild to me, are the Russians using a more traditional system?
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Apr 20, 2023 23:01
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I read this but it makes absolutely no sense to me.
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Apr 20, 2023 23:10
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WarpedLichen posted:https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4030037 Crap, Cinci was doing a reasonable job IMO.
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Apr 20, 2023 23:33
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Henrik Zetterberg posted:I read this but it makes absolutely no sense to me. That's because it's goon drama.
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Apr 20, 2023 23:44
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Please pour a shot glass of Rizhsky Balsam for cinci's wellbeing and dont delve into goondrama further in this thread thank you
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Apr 20, 2023 23:50
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Orthanc6 posted:Russia, where the rock and the hard place is making up a story about your fighter jets bombing your own supermarket to hide that Ukraine can strike that far, or admitting that you actually did bomb your own supermarket. At least there are no casualties this time. Last year, at least two Russian military planes crashed into residential buildings (one in Irkutsk, and another in Yeysk).
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Apr 20, 2023 23:53
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Owling Howl posted:I think a major problem is identifying the specific holes, in a shell blasted hellscape full of craters and holes, that enemy soldiers are occupying. You need to be able to locate most if not all of those trenches and then hit them accurately with artillery to clear them out. It may simply not be a capability Russia has. I don't know that anyone has it really? US has those missiles that basically blanket a location with ball bearings, which could probably hit enough of a trench line.
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Apr 20, 2023 23:57
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EasilyConfused posted:That seems wild to me, are the Russians using a more traditional system? No. Moving your squads from one waypoint to the next on an infantry assault because you can see them via drone is fairly novel for conventional forces. It's almost RTS like, if you'll allow me to be a bit gauche. Edit: RIP Cinci.  You were too good for goondom.
Ynglaur fucked around with this message at 00:04 on Apr 21, 2023 |
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Apr 20, 2023 23:59
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RIP cinci
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Apr 21, 2023 05:49
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RIP Cinci. Volunteered their labour for a commercial troll farm then got fired for suggesting a revenue stream that wasn't trolls
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Apr 21, 2023 06:15
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RIP cinci.
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Apr 21, 2023 06:36
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RIP cinci. Great mod who kept this thread one of the better ones on the entire forums.
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Apr 21, 2023 06:44
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They're losing their worst, while we're losing our best. Forum war is hell...
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Apr 21, 2023 06:50
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Rip Cinci. Hope he will post again once he has served time for his internet crimes. He was great at moderating this thread. (I do not mean this as an attack on anyone else who is now moderating)
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Apr 21, 2023 07:09
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e: nvm, just saw fatherboxx's post
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Apr 21, 2023 08:18
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clearer footage of the belgorod self-bomb have surfaced, you can see something bury into the road, then a few seconds later detonate as cars speed past nsfw for a road (and possibly some cars) exploding https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1649318357538045953
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Apr 21, 2023 09:24
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That's some very lucky drivers. Maybe the bomb was set on slow fuse for bunkers and buildings, or just didn't work properly. If it was set to explode at ground level then there would have been dead people.
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Apr 21, 2023 09:37
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WarpedLichen posted:https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4030037 What the heck does this mean in normal people words? tl;dr? Anyway, rep for cinnci you had a hell of a job and did a good job. 
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Apr 21, 2023 10:28
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:What the heck does this mean in normal people words? tl;dr? Anyway, rep for cinnci you had a hell of a job and did a good job. From what I understand having read a summary in another thread, Cinci was maintaining a list of prolific posters in a spreadsheet that others had access to which included enough info that people could use it to doxx those posters. Then someone did do exactly that and it blew back on him.
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Apr 21, 2023 11:53
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MeinPanzer posted:From what I understand having read a summary in another thread, Cinci was maintaining a list of prolific posters in a spreadsheet that others had access to which included enough info that people could use it to doxx those posters. Then someone did do exactly that and it blew back on him. No, this isn't what happened at all. You're conflating multiple separate things. 1. Cinci creates a quick spreadsheet using publicly available information of the most prolific posters in SAD in this post: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4029808&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=3#post531199458 2. Another person creates a list of posters that are the most prolific posters in SAD in this post: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4029808&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=7#post531210247 (They're perma-banned later in the thread for being a psycho and posting chatlogs that expose a poster's phone number) 3. Everyone brings up that list making is weird poo poo, however, none of the information is anything other than the name of the poster and the amount of posts they make in SAD 4. Someone else brings up that Cinci outed a previously doxxed user who now posts under a new name in the last feedback thread 5. Cinci's also been acting like a protagonist as evidenced by his flame out 6. Cinci hasn't directly doxxed anyone but is acting out and been cavalier with people's information which is enough to be demoded. Good mod of this thread, but it got to his head is the final conclusion. fez_machine fucked around with this message at 12:18 on Apr 21, 2023 |
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Apr 21, 2023 12:15
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I dunno… he was a bit quick with the sixers if he thought your post wasn’t Serious Enough for the thread which is silly for a supposed comedy forum
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Apr 21, 2023 12:23
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