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fatherboxx)
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Guavanaut posted:It's probably going to be injecting drug users. Russia has a big opioid problem and a bad way of dealing with it. Yeah you can find some documentaries on krokodil online, it's just one of the street opiates that's ripped through Russia. It's an awful situation
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Apr 22, 2023 02:43
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fatherboxx posted:My sibling in christ, it is 2023, HIV is well past the gay disease stereotype. Not trying to get too far off topic - yes, I'm aware it is not a gay exclusive disease -- hell, I know someone who got it through a blood transfusion as a child -- but per the CDC, supposedly in the US the majority of new cases are still among the homosexual and bisexual community: In 2019, gay, bisexual, and other men who reported male-to-male sexual contact accounted for 70% (24,500) of the 34,800 estimated new HIV infections and 86% of estimated infections among all men. I don't know if that's also true in Russia, but - I certainly get the impression that Russia is very behind the times in terms of legal protection for folks of non-traditional orientations, - The Russian regime has certainly not shied away from denouncing LGBT rights in Ukraine*, - The regime seems more than happy to... crack down on its populace for things it doesn't like With all of those things, I would not be surprised if this was due to a prevalence of LGBT folks in prison. Sad, but not surprised. * For of course, I also know that may just be Putin looking for anything he can galvanize support with. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Small White Dragon fucked around with this message at 03:54 on Apr 22, 2023 |
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Apr 22, 2023 03:25
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Nenonen posted:In Finland two twin brothers and one of theirs fiancee, all three who were candidates in this spring's parliamentary elections, are being suspected of treason. The reason for treason was that they believe Finland is being invaded through underground tunnels and to prove this they have been recording videos around army bases and depots and posting them online. No no no, the underground tunnels are under the Not-Holy-Roman-Empire and are dug by giant man sized ratman! Who are also nazi's, but that's besides the point! (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 22, 2023 04:25
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Turns out zoomerleaks went for a lot longer than initially thought. https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1649561761022967821?t=Z_CS6HMV10mtMac5phJX1w&s=19
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Apr 22, 2023 08:24
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Guavanaut posted:Ah, but what they, a basic tinfoil idiot, fail to realize is that when Willem III van Oranje conquered England in 1689, the UK became legally part of the Netherlands, so therefore there were no sessions abroad and they still have to pay their parking fine. The best part about it is that it was actually a real legal debate in the 50's how to handle decisions made by the government abroad. So, sort of a kernel of truth, but also solved 70 years ago. They came to the conclusion that the invasion by Nazi Germany could be qualified as force majeur and that the government did nothing wrong in the circumstances. As always there is probably some small truth in the absolute nonsens people are willing to believe.
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Apr 22, 2023 08:47
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I used to think the NSA was worth poo poo, but this Discord stuff hase doubting Unless it's a limited hangout psyop for that exact purpose of course
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Apr 22, 2023 08:47
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fez_machine posted:I gotta ask, why did you leave out the T? Frankly I doubt that Wagner press gangs recruit lesbian prisoners either.
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Apr 22, 2023 08:57
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Failed Imagineer posted:I used to think the NSA was worth poo poo, but this Discord stuff hase doubting Well, NSA isn't the only game in town, by far. The US "Intelligence Community" is comprised of a massive number of different organizations and personnel. There are 18 or so "main" agencies and numerous smaller military, counter-terrorism, homeland security, etc. agencies. And the recent leak suggests that the US disseminates highly classified and very sensitive intelligence reports very broadly. Hard to keep a tight ship if there's 2 million eyeballs on your top secret reports. (It's hard to say how many people with TS clearance also actually have access to those kinds of reports, but it would seem to be many.)
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Apr 22, 2023 08:58
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spankmeister posted:Well, NSA isn't the only game in town, by far. The US "Intelligence Community" is comprised of a massive number of different organizations and personnel. There are 18 or so "main" agencies and numerous smaller military, counter-terrorism, homeland security, etc. agencies. And none of those two million eyeballs was able to find secret documents swirling around on the internet for over a year. I think it's less about stopping leaks but more about noticing and finding leaks in time..
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Apr 22, 2023 09:45
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The Belgorod own goal bombing story continues - second, unexploded bomb was discovered, 17 nearby apartment buildings are evacuated (around 3000 people) according to the governor of region https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/1649726112400912384 https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/1649727401159532544
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Apr 22, 2023 12:30
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The joke about NATO not having showed up was no joke
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Apr 22, 2023 12:33
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Somaen posted:The joke about NATO not having showed up was no joke We even kinda knew Russias airforce was hosed before 2022. They lost 6 jets, 6 helicopters and a transport in an effort to bomb militias and hospitals with no AA during their Syrian intervention. The whole thing would disintegrate if put under pressure.
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Apr 22, 2023 12:54
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BabyFur Denny posted:And none of those two million eyeballs was able to find secret documents swirling around on the internet for over a year. They're so proud of themselves, they don't even care. They're so fat and satisfied, they can't imagine that someone like me would ever get inside their house, walk their floors, spit in their food, leak their documents. When Andor aired, I thought that explanation was a little too simplistic and hand-wavy.Turns out, it was perfectly on point.
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Apr 22, 2023 13:19
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fatherboxx posted:The Belgorod own goal bombing story continues - second, unexploded bomb was discovered, 17 nearby apartment buildings are evacuated (around 3000 people) according to the governor of region At least they're not blaming the Chechens this time.
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Apr 22, 2023 15:46
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mlmp08 posted:
I can only speculate... but perhaps they're hoarding missiles, waiting for the Patriot battery to show up so they can throw everything at it to try to get the publicity of a kill.
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Apr 22, 2023 16:31
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Missiles are expensive, shells are cheap. They're within shell range so no reason to spend missiles.
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Apr 22, 2023 16:32
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I'm no expert, but you'd think that directly above a densely populated city was a bad choice of location to be releasing glide bombs. It isn't as though Russia is short of mostly empty countryside they could use instead.
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Apr 22, 2023 19:01
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Vorenus posted:At least they're not blaming the Chechens this time. Kinda weird they didn’t try to blame it on Ukrainian ‘terrorists’. Or was it so obviously a mistake they couldn’t even sell that on Russian tv?
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Apr 22, 2023 19:14
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mrfart posted:Kinda weird they didn’t try to blame it on Ukrainian ‘terrorists’. Or was it so obviously a mistake they couldn’t even sell that on Russian tv? It would be bad for the regime to say that Ukraine is now dropping glide bombs on our cities - people would absolutely panic. It's objectively better to admit that it was an accident. Also this is not the first time that something has happened. At least two Russian jets have fallen in built areas during the war and people have died.
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Apr 22, 2023 19:36
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mrfart posted:Kinda weird they didn’t try to blame it on Ukrainian ‘terrorists’. Or was it so obviously a mistake they couldn’t even sell that on Russian tv? Probably better to blame your own incompetence then make it appears as though your country is so un secured that terrorists can set off bombs in your cities.
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Apr 22, 2023 20:14
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Roller Coast Guard posted:I'm no expert, but you'd think that directly above a densely populated city was a bad choice of location to be releasing glide bombs. Probably no choice now. There using tactics that worked with the cruise missiles, but they're short now on the missiles, but haven't changed their tactics to adapt for the shorter ranges of the glide bombs. It either means they have to cross into Ukrainian air space to drop bombs or we'll be seeing more and more Russian cities being bombed by accident from the Russian air force.
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Apr 22, 2023 22:34
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/22/alcohol-and-prostitutes-wagner-convicts-pardoned-by-putin-return-to-terrorise-home-towns This article sheds a bit of light on an issue I'd been wondering about for some time: what happens when the surviving convicts that Wagner enlisted return back to civilian society? It only provides limited evidence, but the answer is unsurprisingly that these violent criminals with PTSD, plenty of money, and a de facto get-out-of-jail-free card will continue being violent criminals, just with impunity now--in part at least because it's officially illegal to criticize Wagner fighters in public or the media. Guess if you're Russian you just have to hope that you don't live near one of these guys.
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Apr 23, 2023 09:14
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Young Freud posted:Probably no choice now. There using tactics that worked with the cruise missiles, but they're short now on the missiles, but haven't changed their tactics to adapt for the shorter ranges of the glide bombs. It either means they have to cross into Ukrainian air space to drop bombs or we'll be seeing more and more Russian cities being bombed by accident from the Russian air force. It's pretty easy to plan weapon releases so they're not done directly over population centres, it's not a question of glide bombs vs. cruise missiles. If a cruise missile was launched and the motor failed it would fall in a similar way to the failed glide bombs over Belgorod i.e. pretty much straight down. If they launched from a few miles east or west they'd be over minor towns/villages and the chances of hitting them are much lower vs. it landing in a field. These glide bombs landed right in central Belgorod from what I can tell which points to very careless mission planning.
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Apr 23, 2023 09:14
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Pilots flying VFR to release point 'yes, fly to the intersection of 3rd and State, at 12000 feet ASL, heading 267⁰, press button' maybe?
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Apr 23, 2023 09:33
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If russian military is reduced to vfr pilots then god help everyone
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Apr 23, 2023 13:58
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:If russian military is reduced to vfr pilots then god help everyone Look man, it's hard to get your Garmin eTrex RMA'd with the sanctions.
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Apr 23, 2023 14:05
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quote:“At around 22:15 Moscow time on April 20, when a Su-34 plane of the Russian Aerospace Forces was performing a flight above the city of Belgorod, an emergency release of an air ordnance occurred,” TASS quoted the Russian Defense Ministry as saying. If we take this statement at face value then it wasn't a planned release. So either a pilot error or equipment malfunction. Previously it was claimed that a Russian fighter pilot tried to fire a missile but it failed to launch, so equipment could be at fault too, but pilot error or even a combination of the two can't be ruled out - normally there should be safety mechanisms preventing accidental dropping but if that mechanism didn't work properly then maybe the pilot fumbling over controls could have done it. There's also a possibility that the bombs were released as intended but their guidance mechanism just didn't work as intended. Either way maybe you shouldn't fly over dense population when carrying a bomb load but hey maybe I'm just being overly cautious!
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Apr 23, 2023 14:21
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kemikalkadet posted:It's pretty easy to plan weapon releases so they're not done directly over population centres, it's not a question of glide bombs vs. cruise missiles. If a cruise missile was launched and the motor failed it would fall in a similar way to the failed glide bombs over Belgorod i.e. pretty much straight down. If they launched from a few miles east or west they'd be over minor towns/villages and the chances of hitting them are much lower vs. it landing in a field. These glide bombs landed right in central Belgorod from what I can tell which points to very careless mission planning. Then it raises questions why they don't release a few miles west. Like, does the Russian air force have that large of doubts about their own air defense? These glide bombs have an operational range of 30 miles, maybe 50 miles?! Looking at that, it's definitely more of a risk than shooting off cruise missiles from the Urals, given that Kharkiv is about 30 miles away from the Russian border. They're releasing around Belgorod at the absolute extreme range of those bombs to avoid Ukrainian air defense.
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Apr 23, 2023 14:31
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You’re assuming a deliberate release at that point rather than equipment malfunction or pilot error, which is quite an assumption.
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Apr 23, 2023 14:45
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I think it's extremely optimistic to assume anyone on the Russian side even considered the possibility of an accident during the mission. They just drew a line on the map that they felt gave them the best chance of hitting their intended target and let loose, who cares what's on the ground under the plane, that's not where the bomb is going!
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Apr 23, 2023 14:57
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:You’re assuming a deliberate release at that point rather than equipment malfunction or pilot error, which is quite an assumption. Pilot error insofar as the pilot deliberately doing the multiple tasks necessary to release a weapon without actually intending to release a weapon is a lot less likely than you'd think. Equipment malfunction is flat out not a realistic cause, similar to the missile launch near the NATO surveillance plane last year we had people arguing about and predictably turned out to be intentional. Pilot error meaning "dropped the bomb in the wrong place" is definitely possible.
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Apr 23, 2023 14:58
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Warbadger posted:Pilot error insofar as the pilot deliberately doing the multiple tasks necessary to release a weapon without actually intending to release a weapon is a lot less likely than you'd think. Equipment malfunction is flat out not a realistic cause, Equipment malfunction in the sense of "it was supposed to use wings and glide, but it fell like a rock" is totally possible. Or "guidance failure," which can and has put bombs miles off target. One of the most infamous examples of the latter was a UK flight trying to hit a bridge, but guidance failure put two bombs squarely into a civilian marketplace. Otherwise, accidental/negligent weapon release is rare, but it happens. A NATO air patrol fired an AMRAAM into a baltic nation a few years back. I've been at an airfield where everything shut down because someone screwed up and plopped live munitions directly out of their aircraft and onto an operational munitions handling area. I was also at an airfield where a pilot practicing emergency landings actually punched off his fuel tanks, which then went bouncing into a public street. AMRAAM: https://theaviationgeekclub.com/pilot-error-to-blame-for-accidental-firing-of-aim-120-over-estonia/ Russians accidentally firing at Russian onlookers during a flyby/demonstration: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/19/russian-helicopter-accidentally-fires-rocket-onlookers-zapad-war-games A-10s accidentally drop training bombs near highway in Florida: https://people.com/human-interest/air-force-bombs-florida-training-accident/ US F-16 accidentally drops training round on civilian property in Japan https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/24173-usaf-f-16-accidentally-releases-dummy-bomb-in-japan quote:The Japanese defense ministry lodged a complaint with the U.S. military over the incident. “The dropped object is quite heavy and it must not happen.
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Apr 23, 2023 15:19
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mlmp08 posted:Equipment malfunction in the sense of "it was supposed to use wings and glide, but it fell like a rock" is totally possible. Or "guidance failure," which can and has put bombs miles off target. One of the most infamous examples of the latter was a UK flight trying to hit a bridge, but guidance failure put two bombs squarely into a civilian marketplace. Congratulations, you've just listed a bunch of cases where people did all the things necessary to launch a weapon, causing a weapon to launch in what amounts to "dropped the bomb in the wrong place", plus one extra-not-applicable "intentionally fired live munition they thought was an inert practice munition". You made the exact same bad argument last year with regards to the shot taken at the aforementioned NATO surveillance aircraft. A technical issue causing the bomb not to glide is possible - though still extremely poor mission planning dropping glide bombs over a city and probably not explaining the FAB-500 with no glide kit sitting in the ditch.
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Apr 23, 2023 15:36
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Warbadger posted:Congratulations, you've just listed a bunch of cases where people did all the things necessary to launch a weapon, causing a weapon to launch in what amounts to "dropped the bomb in the wrong place", plus one extra-not-applicable "intentionally fired live munition they thought was an inert practice munition". You made the exact same bad argument last year with regards to the shot taken at the aforementioned NATO surveillance aircraft. Your original post was misleading and was backed up by zero evidence. I provided real world examples that give people a better understanding of aviation mishaps with regards to unintentional weapon release or weapon release that lands somewhere other than intended. Don’t get snippy just because I provided readers with real world examples. E: Addittionally, it's been a long time, do you have a link to what you are talking about, since you are calling out some post you say I made about the AWACS incident from six months ago or something? And you should read the articles. One of the ones I linked is explicitly about a mechanical failure causing weapons to drop and not at all about a pilot trying to drop bombs, but missing: quote:an A-10C Thunderbolt II fighter jet out of Georgia’s Moody Air Force Base hit a bird and the collision sent three BDU-33 dummy bombs out near a highway, the 23rd Wing Public Affairs Office announced. mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 16:04 on Apr 23, 2023 |
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Apr 23, 2023 15:49
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Nenonen posted:That was always a myth, tbh. It was apparently popularised in the 1970 film Patton where it was claimed that German tanks ran on diesel and American tanks on gasoline, which made them prone to catch fire. Old post I know, but the old diesel vs. gas goes even further back. Equipment reports in WW2 kept mentioning that soldiers and officers wanted diesel engines instead of gas (i.e. M4A2s instead of the other variants) because said soldiers believed the gas flammability myth. Funny thing was that when diesel vehicles like the M10 tank destroyer showed up in the Africa/Europe theater, command loving hated them because they needed their own bespoke supply line. You can find books about vehicles pre-WW2 that contributed to the misconception because of mechanics doing stuff like the cigarette trick. Even today, gas companies that deal mainly in diesel will try to twist words to make diesel practically sound like a fire retardant. I wrote a small snippet of my thoughts on the T-series tanks both Russia and Ukraine are using, but generally the problem with the design that Russia has been using since basically the T-54 is its limit in overall design. The T-64 (and by extension, the T-72 and T-80) was so built around its autoloader at the expense of everything else that there's nothing it could do to really stand up against more modern adversaries. The T-64 was ahead of its time when it was adopted, but there have been severely limiting factors (which even the designers acknowledged), and its overall design keeps it from being able to properly modernize.
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Apr 23, 2023 21:01
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spankmeister posted:And the recent leak suggests that the US disseminates highly classified and very sensitive intelligence reports very broadly. Hard to keep a tight ship if there's 2 million eyeballs on your top secret reports. This is a result of a "whole of government" approach after 9/11 which resulted in (warranted) criticism of siloed information unavailable for analysis by other agencies.
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Apr 23, 2023 22:47
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mlmp08 posted:Your original post was misleading and was backed up by zero evidence. I provided real world examples that give people a better understanding of aviation mishaps with regards to unintentional weapon release or weapon release that lands somewhere other than intended. You linked real world examples that either lined up with what I already stated was the likely cause or had no relevance to the discussion. You linked an AMRAAM launched by a guy who thought he had a dummy weapon onboard and got a surprise when it actually fired off the rail after attempting to launch it, a pilot firing rockets into the wrong part of a firing range during a live fire demonstration, an A-10 hitting birds resulting in a trio of little training bombs dropping off, and a guy who lobbed a bomb off a training range. Examples 2 and 4 are literally dropping the bombs/rockets in the wrong place, which I covered in my post as a likely cause. Example 1 is a guy intentionally launching a thing he thought couldn't physically be launched off his aircraft, which doesn't seem to conflict with my post and doesn't really seem applicable to a discussion regarding live ordnance in a warzone. In example 4 the article explicitly says they don't know how it happened and an investigation had been launched. Even assuming a mechanical issue as the cause you're still trying to compare an 11kg cast-iron training bomb with a single suspension lug to an actual 500KG steel bomb with multiple suspension lugs. It doesn't seem "realistic" that this Su-34 hit something mid-flight substantial enough to break a 500kg bomb off a pylon, particularly given this occurred during a combat mission in a warzone during which the pilot would be intentionally dropping it. You also mentioned "it was supposed to use wings and glide, but it fell like a rock" and "guidance failure" as potential causes. Both seem rather unlikely given we've got a photo of one of the bombs and it's an unguided FAB-500 with no glide wings or guidance package strapped to it. Coquito Ergo Sum posted:I wrote a small snippet of my thoughts on the T-series tanks both Russia and Ukraine are using, but generally the problem with the design that Russia has been using since basically the T-54 is its limit in overall design. The T-64 (and by extension, the T-72 and T-80) was so built around its autoloader at the expense of everything else that there's nothing it could do to really stand up against more modern adversaries. The T-64 was ahead of its time when it was adopted, but there have been severely limiting factors (which even the designers acknowledged), and its overall design keeps it from being able to properly modernize. With regards to the T-64, the design was ahead of its time when it was adopted. On paper. In reality it was an unreliable hot mess that very nearly got the axe because the Red Army loving hated it. A lot of its issues, including the autoloader problems, come down to having to get super creative to cram everything into a such a small package. Small tank with a big gun? Welp, it's completely full of ammo and propellant now. Autoloader made as compact as possible in a compact tank? Hope you didn't ever want to load longer ammunition! Want your little tank to have lots of engine power? Enjoy your miniaturized diesel engine that breaks down all the time. Even the whole reliance on ERA thing from the 80's comes down to running out of space/weight on the chassis. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 23:13 on Apr 23, 2023 |
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Apr 23, 2023 22:48
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Just to point out: these are not factory munitions. These are existing bombs with a shop made packaged mounted to them.  The range is very short and the accuracy at best minimal. The Russians are not willing to risk shoulder fired AA either. Downtown Belegrod sits in a little peninsula of Russia proper right next to Kharkiv, right at the last spot you would want to be going straight if you didn't want to be making your turn over threatened airspace.  The compromises they were forced to accept made them need to adapt 1.5 ton bombs into gliding weapons and launch them over a populated area. Any number of things could have gone wrong, the Russians are never going to disclose which one, even if they know themselves. Barrel Cactaur fucked around with this message at 03:04 on Apr 25, 2023 |
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Apr 23, 2023 22:55
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Warbadger posted:Words Maybe we are talking past each other. I think there is insufficient evidence to make a call on why the bombs fell. Potential reasons include: Mechanical mishap caused separation of ordnance. Crew error (dropping at all) Crew error (chose to drop, but dropped wrong) Mechanical erro (crew dropped correctly, but ordnance failed in some way) No one ITT knows; it’s all guesswork. The shot at the RJ is similar. No one knows ITT.
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Apr 23, 2023 23:05
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Barrel Cactaur posted:Just to point out: these are not factory munitions. These are existing bombs with a shop made packaged mounted to them. I know. The one photographed almost fully dug out of the mud in Belgorod had no visible additions (fins, wings, etc.) or marks to indicate they had been removed. Looks like a plain old FAB-500. mlmp08 posted:Maybe we are talking past each other. I think there is insufficient evidence to make a call on why the bombs fell. Fair enough.
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Apr 23, 2023 23:06
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